Championship thread 25/26! (38 Viewers)

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Ah, a glimmer of light into what the figures mean. We are 100% likely to be promoted if their prediction that we will be promoted turns out to be correct.
Basically it's 100% because they can't be arsed to keep writing 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Yeah - based on one game on TV regarding Southampton. They are a good team, and in form. However, if they lose at Wrexham, they could well miss out on the play offs (still have to go to Ipswich as wel as a fixture pile up with the FA Cup)
They are going to have to now fit loads of games in over a very short period are they like Ipswich.
 

TomRad85

Well-Known Member
Yeah - based on one game on TV regarding Southampton. They are a good team, and in form. However, if they lose at Wrexham, they could well miss out on the play offs (still have to go to Ipswich as wel as a fixture pile up with the FA Cup)
I'm hoping fixture congestion fucks Ipswich out of the automatics and fucks Southampton out of the play offs.
 

Ipad Boro

Well-Known Member
The real hope is Millwall and Hull coming up. Hopefully then only need to find one remaining PL team to be better than.
Nah, we're more likely to give you 6 points than Hull.👍🤣

Though I could see a case for Jakirovic being given manager of the season. You'll win the league this year, Frank will be lauded and rightly so as he has done a fantastic job, though he was essentially taking over a playoffs side and turning them into title winners or a 4 league place rise, though this doesn't tell the story of the points improvement, playing style, etc..

Edwards/Hellberg and Neil have both taken an upper mid-table side and made them autos contenders, so about the same level of improvement there, 6 places or so up the league.

What Jakirovic has done is taken a side who survived relegation last year by the skin of their teeth, without a pot to piss in and with an embargo over them anyway into a playoffs side, which to be fair is phenomenal.

In a way it's like saying who would be viewed to have done a better job next year; Liam Rosenior winning the title with Chelsea, Silva and Moyes having Everton and Fulham finish in the top 4 or the Hammers having survived on the final day of this season parting ways with Santo and the new guy having them finish 5th and get the extra CL place?
 
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Ccfcisparks

Well-Known Member
Nah, we're more likely to give you 6 points than Hull.👍🤣

Though I could see a case for Jakirovic being given manager of the season. You'll win the league this year, Frank will be lauded and rightly so as he has done a fantastic job, though he was essentially taking over a playoffs side and turning them into title winners or 4 league places. Edwards/Hellberg and Neil have both taken an upper mid-table side and made them autos contenders, so about the same level of improvement there, 6 places or so up the league.

What Jakirovic has done is taken a side who survived relegation last year by the skin of their teeth, without a pot to piss in and with an embargo over them anyway into a playoffs side, which to be fair is phenomenal.
Lampard is the manager of the year and it’s not even close.

Hellberg has had 1 good run this season. He could be the new Michael Beale
 

TomRad85

Well-Known Member
Nah, we're more likely to give you 6 points than Hull.👍🤣

Though I could see a case for Jakirovic being given manager of the season. You'll win the league this year, Frank will be lauded and rightly so as he has done a fantastic job, though he was essentially taking over a playoffs side and turning them into title winners or 4 league places. Edwards/Hellberg and Neil have both taken an upper mid-table side and made them autos contenders, so about the same level of improvement there, 6 places or so up the league.

What Jakirovic has done is taken a side who survived relegation last year by the skin of their teeth, without a pot to piss in and with an embargo over them anyway into a playoffs side, which to be fair is phenomenal.
You'd have literally taken our place in the play offs if you won at the CBS on the final day of last season?
Lampard getting that team into 5th from where we were last season was a big achievement in itself.
 
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clint van damme

Well-Known Member
I think I'm at the stage where I actually want Southampton to fuck it even more than I want Ipswich to fuck it. And considering how cunty i think Ipswich are... just fuck Southampton!

I actually think there's a case to be made that Southampton are currently the best team in the division.
Unfortunately for them the league runs from August to May
A 6 week spell in the 2nd half of the seasondoesnt get you over the line, ditto Boro.
 

Mcbean

Well-Known Member
So Deadpool or Southampton to get to the playoffs ? For me Deadpool - will be much more entertaining for us to sit back and watch 🤩
 

SafeAsMilk

Well-Known Member
Boro were second when he took over … now in play off places .. all this talk of him doing amazing job… has taken them backwards!!! Wigs don’t win titles!
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
You'd have literally taken our place in the play offs if you won on the CBS on the final day of last season?
Lampard getting that team into 5th from where we were last season was a big achievement in itself.
Hellberg has also taken a team that was 2nd into the play offs
 

Ipad Boro

Well-Known Member
Claiming Hellberg has done just a good job as lampard is hilarious
Where did I say that? If you can point me to the bit where I stated tha,t that would be great. I can wait.

I simply stated what each manager(s) had done in terms of league positions for each side, with the proviso that it didn't take into account points etc, said Frank deserved his praise, before making a case that the Hull manager had in fact overseen more improvement in his side from the end of last last season than yourselves. us and Millwall.

Hellberg couldn't even be considered in any case as he was hardly responsible for Boro's improvement by himself as Edwards was responsible for our start, as much as we think he's a bellend, that's a fact.

You merely assumed that. You're very accomplished at assuming as it turns out.

TomRad also seems to be assuming that what Frank did since being appointed last season, impressive though it was, should be given special dispensation as a one off to count as part of this season's accomplishments. If there was an award for Manager of the Since He Was Appointed, then yeah sure, Frank's record last season could be considered and he would indeed be a pretty good bet to win it, I certainly wouldn't argue against it. But that isn't the award. No one else's record from the season before has ever counted towards the Manager of the Season award. Can I ask as to why you believe it should please? Do you ever consider a factor of a player being Man of the Match being how he did in the second half of the previous game? Why not?

Incidentally if I were to flip Lampard being in charge of you to Emery winning the title with Villa next season would that appease your disgruntlement a tad more as it makes him "sound" a bit better?

Ok then who would have done better next season? Emery winning the title with Villa? Or a new manager taking West Ham to the 5th and final CL place? As that essentially is the debate and we'll even leave Hellberg (oh and Neil for that matter too) out of the equation (as I was using them for comparison against what Hull have done and neither has done as well as Jakirovic) if it sits a bit better with you.
 
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Ccfcisparks

Well-Known Member
Where did I say that? If you can point me to the bit where I stated tha,t that would be great. I can wait.

I simply stated what each manager(s) had done in terms of league positions for each side, with the proviso that it didn't take into account points etc, said Frank deserved his praise, before making a case that the Hull manager had in fact overseen more improvement in his side from the end of last last season than yourselves. us and Millwall.

Hellberg couldn't even be considered in any case as he was hardly responsible for Boro's improvement by himself as Edwards was responsible for our start, as much as we think he's a bellend, that's a fact.

You merely assumed that. You're very accomplished at assuming as it turns out.

You're also assuming that what Frank did since being appointed last season, impressive though it was, should be given special dispensation as a one off to count as part of this season's accomplishments. If there was an award for Manager of the Since He Was Appointed, then yeah sure, Frank's record last season could be considered and he would indeed be a pretty good bet to win it. But that iosn't the award. No one else's record from the season before has ever counted towards the Manager of the Season award. But you seem to believe with Frank it should. Can I ask as to why please? Do you ever consider a factor of a player being Man of the Match being how he did in the second half of the previous game? Why not?

Incidentally if I were to flip Lampard being in charge of you to Emery winning the title with Villa next season would that appease your disgruntlement a tad more as it makes him "sound" a bit better?

Ok then who would have done better next season? Emery winning the title with Villa? Or a new manager taking West Ham to the 5th and final CL place? As that essentially is the debate and we'll even leave Hellberg (oh and Neil for that matter too) out of the equation (as I was using them for comparison against what Hull have done and neither has done as well as Jakirovic) if it cheers you up a bit.
i don’t have a clue what you are talking about
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Where did I say that? If you can point me to the bit where I stated tha,t that would be great. I can wait.

I simply stated what each manager(s) had done in terms of league positions for each side, with the proviso that it didn't take into account points etc, said Frank deserved his praise, before making a case that the Hull manager had in fact overseen more improvement in his side from the end of last last season than yourselves. us and Millwall.

Hellberg couldn't even be considered in any case as he was hardly responsible for Boro's improvement by himself as Edwards was responsible for our start, as much as we think he's a bellend, that's a fact.

You merely assumed that. You're very accomplished at assuming as it turns out.

TomRad also seems to be assuming that what Frank did since being appointed last season, impressive though it was, should be given special dispensation as a one off to count as part of this season's accomplishments. If there was an award for Manager of the Since He Was Appointed, then yeah sure, Frank's record last season could be considered and he would indeed be a pretty good bet to win it, I certainly wouldn't argue against it. But that isn't the award. No one else's record from the season before has ever counted towards the Manager of the Season award. Can I ask as to why you believe it should please? Do you ever consider a factor of a player being Man of the Match being how he did in the second half of the previous game? Why not?

Incidentally if I were to flip Lampard being in charge of you to Emery winning the title with Villa next season would that appease your disgruntlement a tad more as it makes him "sound" a bit better?

Ok then who would have done better next season? Emery winning the title with Villa? Or a new manager taking West Ham to the 5th and final CL place? As that essentially is the debate and we'll even leave Hellberg (oh and Neil for that matter too) out of the equation (as I was using them for comparison against what Hull have done and neither has done as well as Jakirovic) if it sits a bit better with you.
Hull’s ‘punishment’ has helped them a lot more than it’s hurt them. Sign decent players on free transfers while being incentivised not to sell your star assets.
 

no_loyalty

Well-Known Member
Southampton playing Ipswich three days after their FA cup semi final, think they will be fucked like we were after the Man U semi final.
 

Terry_dactyl

Well-Known Member
Hull’s ‘punishment’ has helped them a lot more than it’s hurt them. Sign decent players on free transfers while being incentivised not to sell your star assets.
That’s a good reframe…and possibly right.
I also tend to think (probably incorrectly) that in the modern game with so many decent free transfers about, an embargo means less than it used to. I imagine Hull could still off a lot of players a very good wage/signing on/agent fee…possibly enhanced by not having to pay an actual transfer.
Regardless. They’ve had a very good season compared to last year.
 

Warwickhunt

Well-Known Member
They are going to have to now fit loads of games in over a very short period are they like Ipswich.
When we got to the Semi final the fixture congestion screwed us up for that season
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
That’s a good reframe…and possibly right.
I also tend to think (probably incorrectly) that in the modern game with so many decent free transfers about, an embargo means less than it used to. I imagine Hull could still off a lot of players a very good wage/signing on/agent fee…possibly enhanced by not having to pay an actual transfer.
Regardless. They’ve had a very good season compared to last year.
Togetherness has mattered a lot this season. Lesta have none of it and have badly underperformed. The teams in and around the top 6 have a lot and are where they are.

Ipswich have the least so aren’t running away with the league as they should be.
 

Calista

Well-Known Member
are you slow
At nearly 2am yes 😉

Look, it's been said quite a few times on here that Opta run their model 10,000 times and then report the percentage of simulations where we end up promoted. Their currently quoted "100.00%" figure clearly shows that isn't the case.

It seems much more like Mucca says - they've worked out how many points their model thinks we're likely to get, and because no other team can get that many, we are 100% promoted. That's very different, and pretty deceptive - they think we'll get the required points, therefore we are already there.

It explains why even before Friday's games Opta predicted less than a 1 in 1600 chance that we wouldn't go up. It was clearly nonsense, so out of interest I asked Labroke's (offering 1-1000 ON for promotion on their website) to give me odds for not getting promoted. I never bet against CCFC, but if they'd come back with several hundred to one, I'd have been sorely tempted. They quoted me 16-1, that's SIXTEEN to one! 100 times different from Opta's implied odds, and far more realistic IMO. Personally I think before Friday we were around 95% likely to do it (not 99.94%), and now we are into near-certainty territory.
 
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Calista

Well-Known Member
Basically it's 100% because they can't be arsed to keep writing 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%
Wrong, I think you are misinterpreting it. They were happy to put 99.94% so they could easily put 99.99%.
 

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