Championship thread 25/26! (91 Viewers)

[Ipad Boro]

Out of interest, when did your games against us go from an annoying few results to a full blown hoodoo?

When three defeats turned to four; when five became six?

Did the football gods see that we'd beaten you a few times, and then to start to mix their spells and potions to turn it into a full blown hoodoo for shits and giggles, like the capricious ne'er do wells that they are?

That's exactly what they did. They're known for their shits n' gigs are the Gods.
Well done for getting the word "capricious" into a post btw

But in all honesty it's a strange one as it's not just how many games there are, but how close together. If we lost to a side once as they got promoted, spent a season apart, lost twice when they came back down, relegation separated us for a year or two, then re-promotiom caused another loss it would be less likely to be considered a Hoodoo than if they were in consecutive seasons for example. After four games would be the amount most likely I reckon as it was the end of last season when our lot starting mentioning it as a jinx.

The shortest amount of time I've known a hoodoo to develop was in a little under 8 months, when we got to the playoff final under Karanka. Brentford fans considered it as such and we tended to agree when we beat them 4 times in that short period, twice in the league and in both legs of the playoffs, with a combined score of 10-1.

This continued the following season where we beat them home amd away with a combined score of 4-1, got promoted and they were understandably over the moon to see the back of us.

When we came back down, changing leagues seemed to conquer the Hoodoo as we then drew both our games against them.

 

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[covcity4life]

Strictly speaking, yes if we’re min-maxing the outcome. Our immediate priority is to pull away from Boro and then losing to Millwall in 2 weeks is optimal for us and depending how the results pan out, an Ipswich win v Boro may actually be the day we all but confirm we’ve won the league/prooted.

Current state of affairs:
Cov - 74 pts, 104 max
Boro - 69 pts, 99 max
Millwall - 68 pts, 95 max
Ipswich - 65 pts, 95 max

If Millwall, Ipswich and Boro teams draw their games each other, each team loses 4 points from their maximum so 95 and 91 respectively.

A scenario where Millwall beats Ipswich and Boro, then Ipswich beat Boro. The maximums look like:
- Millwall - 95 pts max
- Boro - 93 max
- Ipswich - 92 max

Objectively, Millwall are still the weakest team in the Top 4 and I’d expect them to drop the most points outside of their ties. In short, I’m not worried about them.

Thanks for doing that

But I really hope mid 80s is enough. Always seems to be 1-2 rivals continuing to push us though so might be high 80s needed

 

[wingy]

Thanks for doing that

But I really hope mid 80s is enough. Always seems to be 1-2 rivals continuing to push us though so might be high 80s needed

We will finish with+90 !
I'm confident of that.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Thanks for doing that

But I really hope mid 80s is enough. Always seems to be 1-2 rivals continuing to push us though so might be high 80s needed

It will be, our averages are higher than the teams around us and we’re looking to get to about 94-96 points based on our current averages.

At the current run rate, we should probably hit 14-15 points from the remaining 6 home games and 6-7 points from our 4 remaining away games.

That does not require a Herculean effort and that’s to hit 94+ points which seems a bit high. In fact, I don’t know about you lot, it seems v doable.

 

[Gint11]

Dear entitled Ipswich fans…..

One big word
WHOOOOOOOOOPPPPPSSS

Kind regards

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

We will finish with+90 !
I'm confident of that.

94 would be by my final best guess. There is a margin of error and feel like 92-96 is our range now and anything outside of that is over/underperforming.

 

[Hutch11]

Tractor boys bitching about referees
Don't they remember Hurst should've been sent off at their place at 0-0 and us all over them
Or the penalty on Haji at 0-0 at our place, admittedly they battered us but a 1-0 lead as it should've been would've changed the whole complexion of the game
That's just 2 of the many many shite decisions that have gone against us.

 

[EalingSB]

When I went to Millwall last season (a Saturday game) I was genuinely surprised at how many tourists there were. Spoke to quite a few Scandinavians and Germans, all on English football weekends.

(This was in reply to Millwall being a non-tourist club not a random comment!).

 

[Sick Boy]

Ideal scenario would us and Millwall top 2 and Ipswich and Boro missing out.

 

[BackRoomRummermill]

Let’s see how we get on tonight and weekend - if we win both and other results go our way it’s a different conversation

 

[covcity4life]

It will be, our averages are higher than the teams around us and we’re looking to get to about 94-96 points based on our current averages.

At the current run rate, we should probably hit 14-15 points from the remaining 6 home games and 6-7 points from our 4 remaining away games.

That does not require a Herculean effort and that’s to hit 94+ points which seems a bit high. In fact, I don’t know about you lot, it seems v doable.

It is but always chance we go on a horrendous run

Not saying it's likely but I just want the chances to be high we go up even if we only picked up 11 more PTS for example.

It's just fan worry if what if we can't see where next win is coming from etc. just nerves at the finish line not saying it's likely to happen.

 

[Sick Boy]

Let’s see how we get on tonight and weekend - if we win both and other results go our way it’s a different conversation

4 points would also be a decent return considering the run we’ve been on.

 

[Evo1883]

Cant lie woke up feeling very positive .. imho if we win tonight its a 3 horse race

But truth be told if we win tonight we have a foot in the premier league .. 9 points plus GD on millwall and 12 on ipswich who have to play boro and millwall

 

[covcity4life]

Cant lie woke up feeling very positive .. imho if we win tonight its a 3 horse race

But truth be told if we win tonight we have a foot in the premier league .. 9 points plus GD on millwall and 12 on ipswich who have to play boro and millwall

Ya it's at that point now. Each win is massive step towards premier League. I hope we can do it tonight.

 

[clint van damme]

Cant lie woke up feeling very positive .. imho if we win tonight its a 3 horse race

But truth be told if we win tonight we have a foot in the premier league .. 9 points plus GD on millwall and 12 on ipswich who have to play boro and millwall

Win tonight and Boro lose, (which I don't expect to happen) and we are in an incredible position with a bit of pressure taken off before what I think are 2 of our toughest remaining fixtures.

 

[AFCCOVENTRY]

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I do think our decisions have evened out over the last 5 games

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It is but always chance we go on a horrendous run

Not saying it's likely but I just want the chances to be high we go up even if we only picked up 11 more PTS for example.

It's just fan worry if what if we can't see where next win is coming from etc. just nerves at the finish line not saying it's likely to happen.

It’s possible, just not probable.

We did have poorer form. It was when our schedule was lopsided with more away games, our home form remaining constant. We lost to Ipswich and that was it. 60% of our remaining games are at home where under Lampard we’ve lost 3 games and have a 75% win rate.

The reason our away form went down the drain was because of Dec and Jan, there was a lack of depth in places, players were recovering from illness and Lampard’s tactics exposed us too much tactically. Now we’ve got depth and tactics have been tweaked.

The only time doubt started to creep in was after Oxford and Boro overtook us. I believed we’d beat Boro but the momentum shift had they won that game could’ve been massive.

 

[eastwoodsdustman]

When I went to Millwall last season (a Saturday game) I was genuinely surprised at how many tourists there were. Spoke to quite a few Scandinavians and Germans, all on English football weekends.

(This was in reply to Millwall being a non-tourist club not a random comment!).

A lot of Dutch people went to our game there the year before last.

 

[Otis]

McKenna blaming the wind for their 1st half performance

what a tosser

They really need to sack the club chef then.

Oh no.

Just how much bad luck can one club have?

Unbelievable what they have had to put up with and how the Gods are all conspiring against them.

I feel for them.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I do think our decisions have evened out over the last 5 games

However the pen on mve and then the West Brom one at home wow

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Opta changed overnight

title 84.4 down a little
Autos 98.1 up a bit

still all to do of course

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Milwall very lucky to win
Hull were good
Ipswich ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

At this stage better to be lucky than good

 

[CovRes]

A lot of Dutch people went to our game there the year before last.

The Den is easy to get to and there's usually no issue getting tickets.
If you ever look on https://www.reddit.com/r/Championship/ you'll see a lot of tourists asking for advice on which London game to pick while they're in the UK. Millwall are nearly always one of the options or suggestions.

 

[Otis]

The Den is easy to get to and there's usually no issue getting tickets.
If you ever look on https://www.reddit.com/r/Championship/ you'll see a lot of tourists asking for advice on which London game to pick while they're in the UK. Millwall are nearly always one of the options or suggestions.

And obviously a cheaper option than tickets for the big London clubs.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Milwall very lucky to win
Hull were good
Ipswich ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

At this stage better to be lucky than good

Against Hull too, they’re not seriously going to go all the way and if they do, great because it won’t impact us.

I’d happily have them beat Ipswich and Boro, it pegs back Boro in particular.

 

[mmttww]

Mark robins you sexy bastard

 

[Travs]

Don't really understand the Ipswich hate. You only need to take a look at this place, or anywhere else on social media, after a City defeat..... its not so different.

Couldn't give a shiny toss who goes up with us (assuming we hold on), nor whether we finish 1st or 2nd.

Saying that, if i had to pick, would be interesting if Millwall went up.

 

[skybluelee]

Don't really understand the Ipswich hate. You only need to take a look at this place, or anywhere else on social media, after a City defeat..... its not so different.

Couldn't give a shiny toss who goes up with us (assuming we hold on), nor whether we finish 1st or 2nd.

Saying that, if i had to pick, would be interesting if Millwall went up.

Surely better for it to be two non-parachute teams that may be in a similar financial position to ourselves to help our chances of survival, no?

Millwall 2nd and Hull through the play-offs please.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Opta changed overnight

title 84.4 down a little
Autos 98.1 up a bit

still all to do of course

That suggests the computer predicts Millwall to be a title threat and Ipswich an autos threat

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

@KenilworthSkyBlue what do you reckon the % is that Ipswich and Boro both win 80% of their remaining games now?

Ipswich have won 0% since we had our conversation. Admittedly, I’d have back them to win both games even despite their horrific record v Leicester and away at Stoke.

My view hasn't really changed to be honest. Not least of all because Millwall aren't showing signs of slowing down.

We still need to win at least 5 out of the remaining 10 which we're more than capable of but nothing is a given regardless of likelihood.

This final stretch of 10 games is a pressure cooker where predicting results becomes nigh on impossible and as often happens one of the 4 chasing autos is probably going to drop off quite significantly.

We're in a great position, but once again, we just need to make sure it's not us!

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

Just watched the highlights from the Ipswich game - that penalty - I'd have been fuming. Hahahahaha. Could well be decisive imho.

 

[clint van damme]

That suggests the computer predicts Millwall to be a title threat and Ipswich an autos threat

If Ipswich carry on their current home and away PPG they're on course for 83 points.
They need to put something special together

 

[clint van damme]

Just watched the highlights from the Ipswich game - that penalty - I'd have been fuming. Hahahahaha. Could well be decisive imho.

Stonewall pen, pipe down McKenna!

 

[Otis]

Just watched the highlights from the Ipswich game - that penalty - I'd have been fuming. Hahahahaha. Could well be decisive imho.

Don't know what you are seeing, but I saw a vicious, hard yank to the floor and a clear penalty.