Championship thread 25/26! (61 Viewers)

[Briles]

We just need to take care of business. Ipswitch have sheff wed soon as well so that's 3 points and 7 goals on their goals added

So do we

 

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[Ccfcsj]

The odds that we’ll go up is comfortably 90% from this point, I don’t know why so many people panic like sheep.

I think it's because we've followed Coventry for so long pessimism is engrained in us

 

[Terry_dactyl]

I think it's because we've followed Coventry for so long pessimism is engrained in us

And that we’ve fucked it up once already this season.

 

[Ccfcisparks]

Imagine if we were in Boro’s position… Only 3 points ahead and Ipswich have a game in hand whilst they still need to go Portman Road.

The odds that we’ll go up is comfortably 90% from this point, I don’t know why so many people panic like sheep.

Highly unlikely its comfortably 90%

 

[Terry_dactyl]

Highly unlikely its comfortably 90%

We’re potentially 2 defeats from being in 3rd, right?

 

[Terry_dactyl]

I think people like to reassure themselves with these stats and percentages etc.

The truth is a lot more harrowing…we might go up automatically, and we’re in the best position (ignoring our earlier season point margin) than we’ve ever been.
Or we might right royally fuck it up again and lose to Wrexham at Wembley (or something).
Either way we are all likely to be shitting ourselves for next few weeks.*


*in my case I have literally been shitting my self since about 3am**.Thanks in no small part to this food poisoning/tummy bug I have picked up.
**Except at 5am when I thought it was a good idea to eat an orange, so mixed it up with some projectile vomitting.
Fun times at Casa Dactyl.

Enjoy the ride folks!

 

[Terry_dactyl]

I think people like to reassure themselves with these stats and percentages etc.

The truth is a lot more harrowing…we might go up automatically, and we’re in the best position (ignoring our earlier season point margin) than we’ve ever been.
Or we might right royally fuck it up again and lose to Wrexham at Wembley (or something).
Either way we are all likely to be shitting ourselves for next few weeks.*


*in my case I have literally been shitting my self since about 3am**.Thanks in no small part to this food poisoning/tummy bug I have picked up.
**Except at 5am when I thought it was a good idea to eat an orange, so mixed it up with some projectile vomitting.
Fun times at Casa Dactyl.

Enjoy the ride folks!

@Hutch11 I dream that it were the consistency of that emoji.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Imagine if we were in Boro’s position… Only 3 points ahead and Ipswich have a game in hand whilst they still need to go Portman Road.

The odds that we’ll go up is comfortably 90% from this point, I don’t know why so many people panic like sheep.

Because things in this league can shift very quickly. In the space of not even two weeks we went from being 2 points behind Boro to 5 ahead.

 

[TomRad85]

Ipswich have 3 winnable looking games, after that it starts to look rough! If we're still above them in 3, we'll be fine.

 

[Major Tom]

Don't blame me

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

And that we’ve fucked it up once already this season.

We had a bad run which happens to most teams, even at the top of this run. We’ve pretty much boxed off all the tough away games and at home we’ve got a 75% win record and have lost a handful of games at home under Lampard. Home form was never an issue during the time we ‘fucked it up’.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Highly unlikely its comfortably 90%

If you understand odds, it’s 70-75% we win the league, 90% we finish top 2. Boro and Ipswich play each other so someone will drop points in that game.

With 11 games left to play, 6 are at home where our win % is 75% and we’ve lost 3 games in 32 under Lampard. Maintaining home and away PPG takes us to 93-94 points which Ipswich and Boro have to be near perfect to achieve, which given that they play each other, is unlikely.

They both also play Millwall who are one of the best away teams in the division.

 

[Sick Boy]

Interesting fixtures. Us at Brizzle, Ipswich have Leicester and Boro at QPR. Should be 3 wins but you never know.

Hull v Millwall too

Leicester have to win at some point, don't they?!

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

If you understand odds, it’s 70-75% we win the league, 90% we finish top 2. Boro and Ipswich play each other so someone will drop points in that game.

With 11 games left to play, 6 are at home where our win % is 75% and we’ve lost 3 games in 32 under Lampard. Maintaining home and away PPG takes us to 93-94 points which Ipswich and Boro have to be near perfect to achieve, which given that they play each other, is unlikely.

They both also play Millwall who are one of the best away teams in the division.

All 3 teams play Sheffield Wednesday in the run-in, which means one less game for them to gain points. If we then win 6 of the other 10 games, both those sides need to win 8.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

All 3 teams play Sheffield Wednesday in the run-in, which means one less game for them to gain points. If we then win 6 of the other 10 games, both those sides need to win 8.

Our win % for the season is 60% so all we need to do is hit our current run rate. The idea that Ipswich and Boro will increase their win % from 55% to 80% is a little bit absurd.

We did the same thing last season and in 22/23 and in the end we achieved our goals in a relatively comfortable fashion albeit, going to the final day.

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

Our win % for the season is 60% so all we need to do is hit our current run rate. The idea that Ipswich and Boro will increase their win % from 55% to 80% is a little bit absurd.

We did the same thing last season and in 22/23 and in the end we achieved our goals in a relatively comfortable fashion albeit, going to the final day.

It's really not that absurd. Win percentages are cumulative averages that fluctuate as the season progresses. They don't follow a linear or steady progression - which you're seemingly inferring.

So, over a small sample of games sharp increases in win % aren't all that uncommon, nor are sudden drops - in fact they're very much common. E.g. Us only managing to pick up 4 wins in 13 after coming away with 11 wins in 12.

 

[Terry_dactyl]

We had a bad run which happens to most teams, even at the top of this run. We’ve pretty much boxed off all the tough away games and at home we’ve got a 75% win record and have lost a handful of games at home under Lampard. Home form was never an issue during the time we ‘fucked it up’.

I’d say throwing a 13 point lead at Christmas (or whatever) is getting close to it…if not the definition of it for that time.
Anyway, I take your point and the only real way we can determine this seasons ‘fucked upness’, will be at the end of it.

 

[prufrock]

Leicester have to win at some point, don't they?!

Even a Leicester draw would be massive (and keep the pressure on Leicester too lol). Tbf they looked good against Boro and on paper have players who could give Ipswich a decent match.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It's really not that absurd. Win percentages are cumulative averages that fluctuate as the season progresses. They don't follow a linear or steady progression - which you're seemingly inferring.

So, over a small sample of games sharp increases in win % aren't all that uncommon, nor are sudden drops - in fact they're very much common. E.g. Us only managing to pick up 4 wins in 13 after coming away with 11 wins in 12.

For two teams to do it when both of them play each other is absurd,

If we win 6 of the final 10, Ipswich need to win 9 of their remaining 11, Boro 8/10. Let’s assume they draw their game, that means both teams can afford to drop points in another one game.

One team could do it and overtake us, but both is such a low %, I’m actually not worried about it.

The bookies would offer you v good money on that because whilst it’s a possible outcome, it’s not a probable one.

We’re more likely to win 7/10 than Boro and Ipswich are to win 8/10 or 9/11 of the remaining games.

 

[sc1940]

We’re potentially 2 defeats from being in 3rd, right?

Yes, and we might drop to 3rd at some point, although I don't think we will, but if we do we are still very much in this and we have the kind of fixtures to enable us to come back.
And don't forget we dropped to second a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I’d say throwing a 13 point lead at Christmas (or whatever) is getting close to it…if not the definition of it for that time.
Anyway, I take your point and the only real way we can determine this seasons ‘fucked upness’, will be at the end of it.

That’s Sheff U did and Leicester over the last 2 seasons. Sheff U’s record last season gets you promoted 9/10.

We slowed down away from home, the squad was light and we reinforced in Jan and we’ve kicked back on.

 

[Sick Boy]

When were we last out of the top 2?

 

[SwanLane]

PPG and win percentages are one thing and not to be dismissed. But we’ve all watched football long enough to know how form and momentum can suddenly kick in but also evaporate rapidly.

The margins are very small between winning and losing so although I think we’re in a great position (clear lead, good form, reasonable fixtures), we’re by no means ‘there’. PPG etc allow us to forecast but form and confidence are harder to measure and quantify going forward.

 

[Terry_dactyl]

That’s Sheff U did and Leicester over the last 2 seasons. Sheff U’s record last season gets you promoted 9/10.

We slowed down away from home, the squad was light and we reinforced in Jan and we’ve kicked back on.

I agree, it feels like we’re back. I just won’t let myself believe it until it happens.

And if it does, I have no idea what the hell im going to do.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

When were we last out of the top 2?

I would assume September.

 

[Mcbean]

This from Viz ! Made me smile

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

For two teams to do it when both of them play each other is absurd,

If we win 6 of the final 10, Ipswich need to win 9 of their remaining 11, Boro 8/10. Let’s assume they draw their game, that means both teams can afford to drop points in another one game.

One team could do it and overtake us, but both is such a low %, I’m actually not worried about it.

The bookies would offer you v good money on that because whilst it’s a possible outcome, it’s not a probable one.

We’re more likely to win 7/10 than Boro and Ipswich are to win 8/10 or 9/11 of the remaining games.

Again, I wouldn't really go as far to say it's absurd. Sure, it's far more probable that they won't both go on a ridiculous run between now and the end of the season.

Us all playing Sheff W is a big help as in theory that should be 3 points all round, plus their game against each other effectively cancels one or both out and allows us at worst to not lose ground to one of the two.

But there's plenty of opportunity for things to change. This last stretch of fixtures is a pressure cooker and I can predict possibly one of the three dropping off by a fair amount. Similar to Sheff U last season when they only picked up 4 wins from their last 10 after winning 11 from 14. Baring in mind they went 5 points clear of Burnley at the end of that ridiculous run.

If a side does drop off we just need to make sure it's not us.

 

[Evo1883]

Just seen this

 

[Matt Grimes' Beard]

Even a Leicester draw would be massive (and keep the pressure on Leicester too lol). Tbf they looked good against Boro and on paper have players who could give Ipswich a decent match.

Leicester should be pretty motivated to get something on Saturday with WBA having to go to Sheff U. they could get out of the bottom 3.

If they need any more motivation, hopefully Oxford get a win on the Friday night and leapfrog the dirty inbred cunts. Might feel like they need to pull out all the stops against Boro if they are sat in 23rd place with a chance to overtake Oxford and WBA.

 

[Pezza]

Ipswich have only a few hard games if you ask me.

Millwall H
Southampton A
Boro H
Norwich A

Boro on the other hand have Millwall H, then the Ipswich game and Wrexham away as there only tricky games I would say. The rest are very "easy" games for them.

 

[Macca1987]

Ipswich have only a few hard games if you ask me.

Millwall H
Southampton A
Boro H
Norwich A

Boro on the other hand have Millwall H, then the Ipswich game and Wrexham away as there only tricky games I would say. The rest are very "easy" games for them.

Would have said that about Leicester and Oxford up at Boro lol

 

[JeffB]

Getting tight up here now!! Boro in danger of going 3rd on goal difference

Imagine missing out on promotion due to goal difference and Ipswich go up as a result of wangling a replay when 1-0 down to Blackburn with 10 men and 10 minutes to go, when the game was abandoned. In the replay Blackburn are through on goal with just the goalkeeper to beat, Blackburn player hauled to the ground, no penalty no red card and in the 94th minute spawny Ipswich salvage a point.
It is Sunderlandesque in grudge potential lasting until the end of time.

 

[TomRad85]

Imagine missing out on promotion due to goal difference and Ipswich go up as a result of wangling a replay when 1-0 down to Blackburn with 10 men and 10 minutes to go, when the game was abandoned. In the replay Blackburn are through on goal with just the goalkeeper to beat, Blackburn player hauled to the ground, no penalty no red card and in the 94th minute spawny Ipswich salvage a point.
It is Sunderlandesque in grudge potential lasting until the end of time.

You just have a feeling that point that should never have been will count for something. Just hope its not at our expense.

 

[skyblue025]

We’re potentially 2 defeats from being in 3rd, right?

Or 2 wins away from being 11 points clear with 9 games left. Glass 1/2 full v glass 1/2 empty.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Imagine missing out on promotion due to goal difference and Ipswich go up as a result of wangling a replay when 1-0 down to Blackburn with 10 men and 10 minutes to go, when the game was abandoned. In the replay Blackburn are through on goal with just the goalkeeper to beat, Blackburn player hauled to the ground, no penalty no red card and in the 94th minute spawny Ipswich salvage a point.
It is Sunderlandesque in grudge potential lasting until the end of time.

A team as ridiculously stacked as theirs doesn’t need a helping hand, yet they’ve had the referees in their pockets all season and a bonus point from the EFL.