Championship thread 25/26! (23 Viewers)

[shmmeee]

I suggest you forget all the incorrect facts you know about Onyeka and note where he does play. He can play anywhere in midfield and he does.

So why did he play for them in the first half of the season but is now down the pecking list?

The vast majority of Onyekas football he’s been a DM or CM. He’s never been a consistent starter for Brentford. He had a run of five or six games in a row max over the three seasons he was playing for them.

 

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[covcity4life]

 

[Ccfcisparks]

Imagine being that wrong and doubling down on it.

Brentford play a 4231. Django is a winger and Onyeka would be one of the two.

 

[David O'Day]

If you want a signing who may have made Onyeka less needed then you could say Henderson but FO was out on loan last season was well.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

If you want a signing who may have made Onyeka less needed then you could say Henderson but FO was out on loan last season was well.

Augsburg wanted to make it permanent I think but couldn’t agree a fee.

 

[wingy]

'Gianni is a man of the people' - Tom Brady heaps praise on 'tremendous' FIFA president Infantino for driving World Cup changes | Goal.com UK

Inspirational x

Twat, like he knows football

 

[AOM]

Twat, like he knows football

Incoming free season ticket for Infantino at St Andrews

 

[Captain Dart]

Leicester in bottom 3!

 

[mrfr]

Updated my model and simulation based on tonight’s results.

EFL Championship 2025/26 — Promotion Probability Model (after GW35, 25 Feb 2026)
100,000 Monte Carlo simulations | home/away PPG + xG differential + last-6 form + decay factor
Ties on projected points broken by current GD + projected xGD over remaining games

#   Team              Now  Proj     1st    2nd  PO 3-6     Mid    Relg
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1   Coventry           68    86   86.1%  10.5%    3.4%      —       —
2   Middlesbrough      63    77    4.1%  31.6%   61.1%    3.2%      —
    ── AUTOMATIC PROMOTION ──
3   Millwall           59    78    7.0%  34.2%   54.1%    4.5%      —
4   Ipswich            57    74    1.8%  12.0%   69.6%   16.4%      —
5   Hull               57    73    0.8%   7.3%   63.3%   28.3%      —
6   Southampton        50    70    0.1%   2.2%   44.6%   52.8%      —
    ── PLAYOFFS ──
7   Wrexham            54    70      —    1.5%   47.3%   51.1%      —
8   Bristol City       50    64      —      —     9.1%   90.9%      —
9   Birmingham         49    66      —    0.2%   13.6%   86.1%      —
10  Preston            49    65      —    0.1%   10.6%   89.3%      —
11  Watford            48    64      —      —     6.4%   93.4%      —
12  QPR                47    63      —      —     6.1%   93.6%      —
13  Stoke              47    63      —      —     4.7%   95.3%      —
14  Sheffield Utd      45    62      —      —     3.4%   96.5%    0.2%
15  Derby              48    61      —      —     1.0%   98.7%      —
16  Norwich            42    60      —      —     1.7%   97.6%    0.7%
17  Swansea            46    56      —      —      —     98.2%    1.6%
18  Charlton           41    56      —      —      —     95.0%    4.9%
19  Portsmouth         39    54      —      —      —     89.6%   10.3%
20  Blackburn          38    53      —      —      —     83.0%   17.0%
21  Leicester          34    50      —      —      —     63.9%   36.1%
    ── RELEGATION ──
22  West Brom          35    50      —      —      —     63.0%   36.9%
23  Oxford             29    43      —      —      —      8.0%   91.9%
24  Sheffield Wed      -7     0      —      —      —       —    100.0%

Leicester staying up on GD is annoying, but I’ll live with it if the rest of it plays out.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Updated my model and simulation based on tonight’s results.

EFL Championship 2025/26 — Promotion Probability Model (after GW35, 25 Feb 2026)
100,000 Monte Carlo simulations | home/away PPG + xG differential + last-6 form + decay factor
Ties on projected points broken by current GD + projected xGD over remaining games

#   Team              Now  Proj     1st    2nd  PO 3-6     Mid    Relg
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1   Coventry           68    86   86.1%  10.5%    3.4%      —       —
2   Middlesbrough      63    77    4.1%  31.6%   61.1%    3.2%      —
    ── AUTOMATIC PROMOTION ──
3   Millwall           59    78    7.0%  34.2%   54.1%    4.5%      —
4   Ipswich            57    74    1.8%  12.0%   69.6%   16.4%      —
5   Hull               57    73    0.8%   7.3%   63.3%   28.3%      —
6   Southampton        50    70    0.1%   2.2%   44.6%   52.8%      —
    ── PLAYOFFS ──
7   Wrexham            54    70      —    1.5%   47.3%   51.1%      —
8   Bristol City       50    64      —      —     9.1%   90.9%      —
9   Birmingham         49    66      —    0.2%   13.6%   86.1%      —
10  Preston            49    65      —    0.1%   10.6%   89.3%      —
11  Watford            48    64      —      —     6.4%   93.4%      —
12  QPR                47    63      —      —     6.1%   93.6%      —
13  Stoke              47    63      —      —     4.7%   95.3%      —
14  Sheffield Utd      45    62      —      —     3.4%   96.5%    0.2%
15  Derby              48    61      —      —     1.0%   98.7%      —
16  Norwich            42    60      —      —     1.7%   97.6%    0.7%
17  Swansea            46    56      —      —      —     98.2%    1.6%
18  Charlton           41    56      —      —      —     95.0%    4.9%
19  Portsmouth         39    54      —      —      —     89.6%   10.3%
20  Blackburn          38    53      —      —      —     83.0%   17.0%
21  Leicester          34    50      —      —      —     63.9%   36.1%
    ── RELEGATION ──
22  West Brom          35    50      —      —      —     63.0%   36.9%
23  Oxford             29    43      —      —      —      8.0%   91.9%
24  Sheffield Wed      -7     0      —      —      —       —    100.0%

If 78 is enough for autos that would be wild.

 

[mrfr]

If 79 is enough for autos that would be wild.

Yeah, it feels super low, the model is factoring in difficulty of remaining fixture though and it doesn’t like boro’s run in.

 

[HadjiChippo]

Leicester staying up on GD is annoying, but I’ll live with it if the rest of it plays out.

Unless WBA bring in a miracle worker, I can’t see them finishing above Leicester, especially if Rowett makes them hard to beat.

 

[mrfr]

Actually, I messed up a bit, here’s a corrected version. Computers are hard. The model has millwall finishing second

EFL Championship 2025/26 — Promotion Probability Model (after GW35, 25 Feb 2026)
100,000 Monte Carlo simulations | home/away PPG + xG differential + last-6 form + decay factor
Ties on projected points broken by current GD + projected xGD over remaining games

#   Team              Now  Proj     1st    2nd  PO 3-6     Mid    Relg
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1   Coventry           68    86   86.1%  10.5%    3.4%      —       —
2   Millwall           59    78    7.0%  34.2%   54.1%    4.5%      —
    ── AUTOMATIC PROMOTION ──
3   Middlesbrough      63    77    4.1%  31.6%   61.1%    3.2%      —
4   Ipswich            57    74    1.8%  12.0%   69.6%   16.4%      —
5   Hull               57    73    0.8%   7.3%   63.3%   28.3%      —
6   Southampton        50    70    0.1%   2.2%   44.6%   52.8%      —
    ── PLAYOFFS ──
7   Wrexham            54    70      —    1.5%   47.3%   51.1%      —
8   Birmingham         49    66      —    0.2%   13.6%   86.1%      —
9   Preston            49    65      —    0.1%   10.6%   89.3%      —
10  Bristol City       50    64      —      —     9.1%   90.9%      —
11  Watford            48    64      —      —     6.4%   93.4%      —
12  Stoke              47    63      —      —     4.7%   95.3%      —
13  QPR                47    63      —      —     6.1%   93.6%      —
14  Sheffield Utd      45    62      —      —     3.4%   96.5%    0.2%
15  Derby              48    61      —      —     1.0%   98.7%      —
16  Norwich            42    60      —      —     1.7%   97.6%    0.7%
17  Swansea            46    56      —      —      —     98.2%    1.6%
18  Charlton           41    56      —      —      —     95.0%    4.9%
19  Portsmouth         39    54      —      —      —     89.6%   10.3%
20  Blackburn          38    53      —      —      —     83.0%   17.0%
21  Leicester          34    50      —      —      —     63.9%   36.1%
    ── RELEGATION ──
22  West Brom          35    50      —      —      —     63.0%   36.9%
23  Oxford             29    43      —      —      —      8.0%   91.9%
24  Sheffield Wed      -7     0      —      —      —       —    100.0%

1st/2nd = probability of finishing in that exact position
PO 3-6 = finishing 3rd-6th (playoff spots)
Mid = finishing 7th-21st
Relg = finishing 22nd-24th (relegated)
Tiebreakers: Southampton edge Wrexham for 6th (proj GD +11.4 vs +9.9)
West Brom drop below Leicester for 22nd (proj GD -17.1 vs -9.3)
Leicester -6pts deduction | Sheffield Wednesday -18pts deduction

 

[MikeyMoo]

Nice, especially as for the top 10 the 'last-6 form' bit is much of a muchness right now... Does this suggest we'll have won the league before the Wrexham game?

 

[Major Tom]

That fact that Ipswich, Millwall and Middlesbrough all play each other is a massive help.

 

[Major Tom]

Nice, especially as for the top 10 the 'last-6 form' bit is much of a muchness right now... Does this suggest we'll have won the league before the Wrexham game?

Blackburn away?

 

[Nick]

That fact that Ipswich, Millwall and Middlesbrough all play each other is a massive help.

Draws would be nice.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I'm not sure about tonight. Think we can beat stoke. Anything today a bonus

I was confident today that we’d get a result until KO, first half was pretty ropey and after their opener, thought a draw would be the best we could get. I missed their goal.

Second half performance was brilliant an we were the better team. Solid away performance and fair play to Frank changing up his style again.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

That fact that Ipswich, Millwall and Middlesbrough all play each other is a massive help.

A win on Saturday and we more or less secure promotion imo (not literally ofc). My assumption is that Boro will fail to beat Birmingham and therefore, the likelihood of 2 teams overturning an 5-8 point deficit with 11 games left just seems unrealistic.

An ideal situation is something like, Millwall > Boro > Ipswich > Millwall. As long as we pull away whilst they take chunks out of one another is fine by me.

 

[oakey]

I'm hoping for 90 points and the title. Disappointed if it's less than that from this position.
PUSB

 

[Evo1883]

I'm hoping for 90 points and the title. Disappointed if it's less than that from this position.
PUSB

Would look lovely with sky blue ribbon

 

[skyblue025]

Blackburn away?

8k to Blackburn away will be promotion.
Portsmouth at home will be the league title.