I’ve obviously no idea but I get the impression, that Ipswich thought they’d piss the league this year; have had moments where they’ve looked great eg against us at home, and have then rested on their laurels again.Togetherness has mattered a lot this season. Lesta have none of it and have badly underperformed. The teams in and around the top 6 have a lot and are where they are.
Ipswich have the least so aren’t running away with the league as they should be.
That's a very good point.Togetherness has mattered a lot this season. Lesta have none of it and have badly underperformed. The teams in and around the top 6 have a lot and are where they are.
Ipswich have the least so aren’t running away with the league as they should be.
I'd agree with that, but 150 years of such happenstance can set views you know?With all due respect, this is a loser's mentality. We had it too until Jimmy Hill and now Frank Lampard came and snapped us out of it. You need a top class coach. Money alone will never do it
that cannot be right.At nearly 2am yes
Look, it's been said quite a few times on here that Opta run their model 10,000 times and then report the percentage of simulations where we end up promoted. Their currently quoted "100.00%" figure clearly shows that isn't the case.
It seems much more like Mucca says - they've worked out how many points their model thinks we're likely to get, and because no other team can get that many, we are 100% promoted. That's very different, and pretty deceptive - they think we'll get the required points, therefore we are already there.
It explains why even before Friday's games Opta predicted less than a 1 in 1600 chance that we wouldn't go up. It was clearly nonsense, so out of interest I asked Labroke's (offering 1-1000 ON for promotion on their website) to give me odds for not getting promoted. I never bet against CCFC, but if they'd come back with several hundred to one, I'd have been sorely tempted. They quoted me 16-1, that's SIXTEEN to one! 100 times different from Opta's implied odds, and far more realistic IMO. Personally I think before Friday we were around 95% likely to do it (not 99.94%), and now we are into near-certainty territory.
Sheff Utd raided them for the wrong CB. Cooper is much more defensively robust.That's a very good point.
I'd say Millwall probably have the best team spirit as they've fostered an us against the world mentality more than any other and may be the leagues best example of a team that is greater than the sum of their parts. They have a few stand out players technically, but the rest all raise the bar, performance levels and frankly bust a gut.
What's also admirable about the Wall is that we normally take the unwanted honour of having the worst long injury crisis in a season. This dubious occurrence started at the end of Carrick's first season. However this season that's probably Millwall's, earlier on in this campaign they probably had an injury record that was worse than ours this year.
That's a very good point.
I'd say Millwall probably have the best team spirit as they've fostered an us against the world mentality more than any other and may be the leagues best example of a team that is greater than the sum of their parts. They have a few stand out players technically, but the rest all raise the bar, performance levels and frankly bust a gut.
What's also admirable about the Wall is that we normally take the unwanted honour of having the worst long injury crisis in a season. This dubious occurrence started at the end of Carrick's first season. However this season that's probably Millwall's, earlier on in this campaign they probably had an injury record that was worse than ours this year.
Hull’s ‘punishment’ has helped them a lot more than it’s hurt them. Sign decent players on free transfers while being incentivised not to sell your star assets.
Funnily enough someone on Five Live said that the Hull manager has outperformed more than any other based on anticipated league position
Lampard took a team that finished 9th, in a relegation battle prior to him joining and turned us into a well oiled machine. He managed us out of a well documented blip its not all been smooth sailing, I think he’s done much better than Edwards/Hellberg in terms of turning a team around, Jakirovic has equally done a good job but FL deserves the recognition I thinkNah, we're more likely to give you 6 points than Hull.
Though I could see a case for Jakirovic being given manager of the season. You'll win the league this year, Frank will be lauded and rightly so as he has done a fantastic job, though he was essentially taking over a playoffs side and turning them into title winners or a 4 league place rise, though this doesn't tell the story of the points improvement, playing style, etc..
Edwards/Hellberg and Neil have both taken an upper mid-table side and made them autos contenders, so about the same level of improvement there, 6 places or so up the league.
What Jakirovic has done is taken a side who survived relegation last year by the skin of their teeth, without a pot to piss in and with an embargo over them anyway into a playoffs side, which to be fair is phenomenal.
In a way it's like saying who would be viewed to have done a better job next year; Liam Rosenior winning the title with Chelsea, Silva and Moyes having Everton and Fulham finish in the top 4 or the Hammers having survived on the final day of this season parting ways with Santo and the new guy having them finish 5th and get the extra CL place?
that cannot be right.
Thats probably true , they were predicted by many to go down
But reality is coventry winning the league on 90 plus points is a far bigger shock
Mega stat tbh
Frank lampard has the 6th highest win ratio of any manager in championship history over his spells at cov and derby
His spell at coventry puts him 2nd highest behind kieran mvkenna 1.96 ppg to franks 1.95
it's clearly a jokeWrong, I think you are misinterpreting it. They were happy to put 99.94% so they could easily put 99.99%.
That doesn't make sense though. At this point, we are demonstrably not 100% promoted. Of course it's overwhelmingky likely, but that's not the same thing.
I'm not disagreeing with you with that point. In terms of the complete job Lampard has done at Coventry City, he'd get my vote for an award for the best achievements of the last season and a half. No question.Lampard took a team that finished 9th, in a relegation battle prior to him joining and turned us into a well oiled machine. He managed us out of a well documented blip its not all been smooth sailing, I think he’s done much better than Edwards/Hellberg in terms of turning a team around, Jakirovic has equally done a good job but FL deserves the recognition I think
Thats probably true , they were predicted by many to go down
But reality is coventry winning the league on 90 plus points is a far bigger shock
I'm not disagreeing with you with that point. In terms of the complete job Lampard has done at Coventry City, he'd get my vote for an award for the best achievements of the last season and a half. No question.
But that wasn't the award being discussed, it was for Manager of This Season. So whilst Frank has done the best overall job of any current manager in the league for the duration of his time in charge, for this season only I believe Jakirovic shades it, just for where Hull were in relation to Cov at the end of last season, therefore what each manager had to work with as a baseline at the start of this.
That's not taking anything away from Lampard though, as you can't finish higher than first.
The Pareto principle. (80 /20 rule)Yeah we were, what, 5th favourites for the league? So technically a 4-place improvement but comfortably the toughest places to incrementally improve. The step between 6th-21st really isn’t all that.
As G has pointed out look at wages as well, we have one of the lowest wage bills in the leagueI'm not disagreeing with you with that point. In terms of the complete job Lampard has done at Coventry City, he'd get my vote for an award for the best achievements of the last season and a half. No question.
But that wasn't the award being discussed, it was for Manager of This Season. So whilst Frank has done the best overall job of any current manager in the league for the duration of his time in charge, for this season only I believe Jakirovic shades it, just for where Hull were in relation to Cov at the end of last season, therefore what each manager had to work with as a baseline at the start of this.
That's not taking anything away from Lampard though, as you can't finish higher than first.
My liver has already expressed concerns about the number of London games.
I know guy who will do you a good deal, drinks on the canal.Not forgetting how much it will cost.
They may fall into the same trap we did in 23/24, albeit they have a stronger squad than we did back then.Great win for Southampton but they're now going to have to play 8 games in 25 days.
95-96 points was my own ‘projection’ which is just the running averages of our home/away form. 7 home points and 5 away points from here is probable.Ah, a glimmer of light into what the figures mean. We are 100% likely to be promoted if their prediction that we will be promoted turns out to be correct.
It works on simulating the remaining games. The 100% just means that we go up in all of their simulations. It's why it alters occasionally despite no other games being played.Wrong, I think you are misinterpreting it. They were happy to put 99.94% so they could easily put 99.99%.
Do we get to say:"Cov are only top because eckert hasnt been manager all season"
Since eckert took over
(Including our bad spell too btw )View attachment 50392
Buy a pop up tent and stay in the location, need to arrange the game's in blocks of 3 over the week.My liver has already expressed concerns about the number of London games.
At this stage of the season, to miss out on automatic promotion we’d need to not win another game. Given that our next 2 home games are against Sheffield Wednesday and Pompey, those two games alone should take us to 89 points and more than Boro’s max points. 91 guarantees promotion as of today and that’s assuming Millwall and Ipswich don’t drop anymore points which is unlikely.It works on simulating the remaining games. The 100% just means that we go up in all of their simulations. It's why it alters occasionally despite no other games being played.
This article is more about their live game predictions, but explains the principles of what they do: Explaining Live Win Probability (LWP) | Opta Analyst
There must be something about Neil’s tactics that gets the most out of Cooper and most of their team to be fair. That podcaster who occasionally posts on here did call in pre-season so fair play - I scoffed at the prediction putting them so high and ahead of us. That’s what offended me personally.Sheff Utd raided them for the wrong CB. Cooper is much more defensively robust.
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