shmmeee
Well-Known Member
The vast majority of Onyekas football he’s been a DM or CM. He’s never been a consistent starter for Brentford. He had a run of five or six games in a row max over the three seasons he was playing for them.
I suggest you forget all the incorrect facts you know about Onyeka and note where he does play. He can play anywhere in midfield and he does.
So why did he play for them in the first half of the season but is now down the pecking list?
Augsburg wanted to make it permanent I think but couldn’t agree a fee.If you want a signing who may have made Onyeka less needed then you could say Henderson but FO was out on loan last season was well.
Twat, like he knows football
Twat, like he knows football
EFL Championship 2025/26 — Promotion Probability Model (after GW35, 25 Feb 2026)
100,000 Monte Carlo simulations | home/away PPG + xG differential + last-6 form + decay factor
Ties on projected points broken by current GD + projected xGD over remaining games
# Team Now Proj 1st 2nd PO 3-6 Mid Relg
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Coventry 68 86 86.1% 10.5% 3.4% — —
2 Middlesbrough 63 77 4.1% 31.6% 61.1% 3.2% —
── AUTOMATIC PROMOTION ──
3 Millwall 59 78 7.0% 34.2% 54.1% 4.5% —
4 Ipswich 57 74 1.8% 12.0% 69.6% 16.4% —
5 Hull 57 73 0.8% 7.3% 63.3% 28.3% —
6 Southampton 50 70 0.1% 2.2% 44.6% 52.8% —
── PLAYOFFS ──
7 Wrexham 54 70 — 1.5% 47.3% 51.1% —
8 Bristol City 50 64 — — 9.1% 90.9% —
9 Birmingham 49 66 — 0.2% 13.6% 86.1% —
10 Preston 49 65 — 0.1% 10.6% 89.3% —
11 Watford 48 64 — — 6.4% 93.4% —
12 QPR 47 63 — — 6.1% 93.6% —
13 Stoke 47 63 — — 4.7% 95.3% —
14 Sheffield Utd 45 62 — — 3.4% 96.5% 0.2%
15 Derby 48 61 — — 1.0% 98.7% —
16 Norwich 42 60 — — 1.7% 97.6% 0.7%
17 Swansea 46 56 — — — 98.2% 1.6%
18 Charlton 41 56 — — — 95.0% 4.9%
19 Portsmouth 39 54 — — — 89.6% 10.3%
20 Blackburn 38 53 — — — 83.0% 17.0%
21 Leicester 34 50 — — — 63.9% 36.1%
── RELEGATION ──
22 West Brom 35 50 — — — 63.0% 36.9%
23 Oxford 29 43 — — — 8.0% 91.9%
24 Sheffield Wed -7 0 — — — — 100.0%If 78 is enough for autos that would be wild.Updated my model and simulation based on tonight’s results.
Code:EFL Championship 2025/26 — Promotion Probability Model (after GW35, 25 Feb 2026) 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations | home/away PPG + xG differential + last-6 form + decay factor Ties on projected points broken by current GD + projected xGD over remaining games # Team Now Proj 1st 2nd PO 3-6 Mid Relg ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Coventry 68 86 86.1% 10.5% 3.4% — — 2 Middlesbrough 63 77 4.1% 31.6% 61.1% 3.2% — ── AUTOMATIC PROMOTION ── 3 Millwall 59 78 7.0% 34.2% 54.1% 4.5% — 4 Ipswich 57 74 1.8% 12.0% 69.6% 16.4% — 5 Hull 57 73 0.8% 7.3% 63.3% 28.3% — 6 Southampton 50 70 0.1% 2.2% 44.6% 52.8% — ── PLAYOFFS ── 7 Wrexham 54 70 — 1.5% 47.3% 51.1% — 8 Bristol City 50 64 — — 9.1% 90.9% — 9 Birmingham 49 66 — 0.2% 13.6% 86.1% — 10 Preston 49 65 — 0.1% 10.6% 89.3% — 11 Watford 48 64 — — 6.4% 93.4% — 12 QPR 47 63 — — 6.1% 93.6% — 13 Stoke 47 63 — — 4.7% 95.3% — 14 Sheffield Utd 45 62 — — 3.4% 96.5% 0.2% 15 Derby 48 61 — — 1.0% 98.7% — 16 Norwich 42 60 — — 1.7% 97.6% 0.7% 17 Swansea 46 56 — — — 98.2% 1.6% 18 Charlton 41 56 — — — 95.0% 4.9% 19 Portsmouth 39 54 — — — 89.6% 10.3% 20 Blackburn 38 53 — — — 83.0% 17.0% 21 Leicester 34 50 — — — 63.9% 36.1% ── RELEGATION ── 22 West Brom 35 50 — — — 63.0% 36.9% 23 Oxford 29 43 — — — 8.0% 91.9% 24 Sheffield Wed -7 0 — — — — 100.0%
Yeah, it feels super low, the model is factoring in difficulty of remaining fixture though and it doesn’t like boro’s run in.If 79 is enough for autos that would be wild.
Leicester staying up on GD is annoying, but I’ll live with it if the rest of it plays out.
EFL Championship 2025/26 — Promotion Probability Model (after GW35, 25 Feb 2026)
100,000 Monte Carlo simulations | home/away PPG + xG differential + last-6 form + decay factor
Ties on projected points broken by current GD + projected xGD over remaining games
# Team Now Proj 1st 2nd PO 3-6 Mid Relg
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Coventry 68 86 86.1% 10.5% 3.4% — —
2 Millwall 59 78 7.0% 34.2% 54.1% 4.5% —
── AUTOMATIC PROMOTION ──
3 Middlesbrough 63 77 4.1% 31.6% 61.1% 3.2% —
4 Ipswich 57 74 1.8% 12.0% 69.6% 16.4% —
5 Hull 57 73 0.8% 7.3% 63.3% 28.3% —
6 Southampton 50 70 0.1% 2.2% 44.6% 52.8% —
── PLAYOFFS ──
7 Wrexham 54 70 — 1.5% 47.3% 51.1% —
8 Birmingham 49 66 — 0.2% 13.6% 86.1% —
9 Preston 49 65 — 0.1% 10.6% 89.3% —
10 Bristol City 50 64 — — 9.1% 90.9% —
11 Watford 48 64 — — 6.4% 93.4% —
12 Stoke 47 63 — — 4.7% 95.3% —
13 QPR 47 63 — — 6.1% 93.6% —
14 Sheffield Utd 45 62 — — 3.4% 96.5% 0.2%
15 Derby 48 61 — — 1.0% 98.7% —
16 Norwich 42 60 — — 1.7% 97.6% 0.7%
17 Swansea 46 56 — — — 98.2% 1.6%
18 Charlton 41 56 — — — 95.0% 4.9%
19 Portsmouth 39 54 — — — 89.6% 10.3%
20 Blackburn 38 53 — — — 83.0% 17.0%
21 Leicester 34 50 — — — 63.9% 36.1%
── RELEGATION ──
22 West Brom 35 50 — — — 63.0% 36.9%
23 Oxford 29 43 — — — 8.0% 91.9%
24 Sheffield Wed -7 0 — — — — 100.0%
1st/2nd = probability of finishing in that exact position
PO 3-6 = finishing 3rd-6th (playoff spots)
Mid = finishing 7th-21st
Relg = finishing 22nd-24th (relegated)
Tiebreakers: Southampton edge Wrexham for 6th (proj GD +11.4 vs +9.9)
West Brom drop below Leicester for 22nd (proj GD -17.1 vs -9.3)
Leicester -6pts deduction | Sheffield Wednesday -18pts deductionWe use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
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