automatic promotion out of reach? (1 Viewer)

FinnishSkyBlue · Dec 30, 2012

Normally 85-90 points is enough for a place in the top two, but city would have to take something like 50 points from the last 21 games, surely it's too much asked even though we are flying right now.. but every team has blips through the whole season, so maybe we have to be content with the playoffs this season?

wingy · Dec 30, 2012

FinnishSkyBlue said:
Normally 85-90 points is enough for a place in the top two, but city would have to take something like 50 points from the last 21 games, surely it's too much asked even though we are flying right now.. but every team has blips through the whole season, so maybe we have to be content with the playoffs this season?

At best from the remaining 21 games we can only afford to drop 5-6 points unless others have a massive fail.

Of course we may be helped if we win the 6 pointers ,extremely tough ,probably just too much ,Notts County away could be our biggest game for 50 years ,I want a ticket to that one.

Otis · Dec 30, 2012

I have not even began to think about top 2 places, nor will i start until we ever (if we ever) get pretty close.

Still trying to get my head around top 6, never mind automatic promotion!!

kg82 · Dec 30, 2012

Won't be as much as that to get automatic this season. Too many of the top half teams taking points off each other.

covandy · Dec 30, 2012

never say never but i would be over the moon with the play offs

BurbageSkyBlues · Dec 30, 2012

If you look at the games won so far, by the top teams, the most is 14 , out of approx 24/25 games.

I have been counting down the last few wins for us, the barometer is now at 17 more needed !

That should give us 88 points, which fits in nicely with your maths,, finnish.

One thing , if we ensure that no team takes more than three points off us throughout the season, we should be there, or there abouts.......so far, we have beaten the teams that beat us earlier in the season, so if we keep that up, and at least draw against those that we have already beaten, we should easily get a top six spot. Big ask, I know, but it really is a question of one game at a time, and not getting anxious when we hit an inevitable wobble.

Just my opinion!

skybluegod · Dec 30, 2012

Just take it one game at a time if we get auto great if not then great we have play offs.

dongonzalos · Dec 30, 2012

You can get 3-1 on a top six finish.
That's quite good.

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 30, 2012

Lets not worry about the maths, it's different every year, lets get in the top 6 and work from there. Hopefully we don't lose anymore games (I can see 1 or 2).

JulianDarbyFTW · Dec 31, 2012

Tramere: 9 points from last 6
Sheff Utd: 10 points from last 6
Doncaster: 13 points from last 6
Brentford: 16 points from last 6
Bournemouth: 14 points from last 6
Swindon: 10 points from last 6
MK Dons: 7 points from last 6
Crawley: 7 points from last 6
COVENTRY: 14 POINTS FROM LAST 6

Looking at that, it would be very tough to go beyond the playoffs. Yes, we're on a great run of form, but we seem to forget that there are other teams doing equally well - probably because they're well above us and we tend to look at the teams within reach. I think 5th place, which is 4 points away from us, is probably the best we can hope for. To claw back 8 points from the likes of Brentford or Doncaster will be incredibly tough. So, impossible? No. Highly unlikely? I'm afraid so.

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 31, 2012

JulianDarbyFTW said:
Tramere: 9 points from last 6
Sheff Utd: 10 points from last 6
Doncaster: 13 points from last 6
Brentford: 16 points from last 6
Bournemouth: 14 points from last 6
Swindon: 10 points from last 6
MK Dons: 7 points from last 6
Crawley: 7 points from last 6
COVENTRY: 14 POINTS FROM LAST 6

Looking at that, it would be very tough to go beyond the playoffs. Yes, we're on a great run of form, but we seem to forget that there are other teams doing equally well - probably because they're well above us and we tend to look at the teams within reach. I think 5th place, which is 4 points away from us, is probably the best we can hope for. To claw back 8 points from the likes of Brentford or Doncaster will be incredibly tough. So, impossible? No. Highly unlikely? I'm afraid so.

We'll know on feb 2nd if we can seriously mount a promotion challenge, as we have Tranmere and Sheff U to play, as well as Carlisle, PNE & Shrewsbury.

ccfcway · Dec 31, 2012

when will we know if we have a shot ?

BrisbaneBronco · Dec 31, 2012

If u look at the current top 2. Tranmere av 1.88/game which if maintained gives 86, Sheff Utd ave 1.84/game giving 85. For us to overtake these two we would need 50 points from 21 games which is 2.4/game. Realistically, best we can hope for is play offs, and it is more fun that way with a trip to Wembley.

skybluelee · Dec 31, 2012

JulianDarbyFTW said:
Tramere: 9 points from last 6
Sheff Utd: 10 points from last 6
Doncaster: 13 points from last 6
Brentford: 16 points from last 6
Bournemouth: 14 points from last 6
Swindon: 10 points from last 6
MK Dons: 7 points from last 6
Crawley: 7 points from last 6
COVENTRY: 14 POINTS FROM LAST 6

Looking at that, it would be very tough to go beyond the playoffs. Yes, we're on a great run of form, but we seem to forget that there are other teams doing equally well - probably because they're well above us and we tend to look at the teams within reach. I think 5th place, which is 4 points away from us, is probably the best we can hope for. To claw back 8 points from the likes of Brentford or Doncaster will be incredibly tough. So, impossible? No. Highly unlikely? I'm afraid so.

It would be interesting to see the comparison from the last 11 games. We have taken 26 points in that time. Which is phenomenal.

Astute · Dec 31, 2012

Ha ha deluded one is here.

It seems to be a close division this season. Anyone can beat anyone(unless we are playing away) The top 2 are dropping points. Sheff Utd did well last game Winter hasn't started yet. This is when the injuries start occuring more frequently. This is when our squad size will help. We are already catching up with the top two by nearly a point a game. That is with only average home form. At one stage we were 20 points off 1st. We have halved that. Same again and with nearly half a season to go and we are top.

I am saying it is between us and Bournemouth for 1st and second. Sorry lads no Wembley visit in the playoffs. Just be happy with the tinpot visit.

Otis · Dec 31, 2012

Be interesting to see what we do in the January window.

I am sure MR will want to strengthen the squad.

Deleted member 4232 · Dec 31, 2012

I'm waiting for the results of the Jan window before I cast judgment on where we will lie at the end of the season. However; if curent form continues i'll be a happy lad.

skybluelee · Dec 31, 2012

I am now convinced that the play off final will be between cov and bmth. That means my train to london will be rammed full of cherries fans. Could lead to some interesting banter on the way home after we beat them.

MusicDating · Dec 31, 2012

dongonzalos said:
You can get 3-1 on a top six finish.
That's quite good.

Who's this with Don, best I see on oddschecker is 17/10.

stupot07 · Dec 31, 2012

Otis said:
Be interesting to see what we do in the January window.

I am sure MR will want to strengthen the squad.

Definitely, but what people seem to forget is everyone else will be strengthening too which will be key to those ho have had a dip in form due to injury.

Astute · Dec 31, 2012

Brentford v Bornemouth
Doncaster v Sheff Utd

Two of the games tomorrow. If both of them games are draws and we win we catch up with 4 clubs at least by 2 points on one day. If neither game is a draw and we win then minimum 2 clubs caught up by 3 points in 1 day.

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 31, 2012

BrisbaneBronco said:
If u look at the current top 2. Tranmere av 1.88/game which if maintained gives 86, Sheff Utd ave 1.84/game giving 85. For us to overtake these two we would need 50 points from 21 games which is 2.4/game. Realistically, best we can hope for is play offs, and it is more fun that way with a trip to Wembley.

We don't know if the points average will be maintained, since we've got the top 2 before Feb 2nd, we could catch up on them big time by then.

Realistically, the minimum we should hope or is playoffs, we're doing well and 2 points off 6th, if results go our way, we could be 6th on NYD.

It's either good or bad news (depends which way you look at it), but we've got all the teams above us to play (except MK).

Especially if we can keep McG, but I think we can win the league.

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 31, 2012

Astute said:
Brentford v Bornemouth
Doncaster v Sheff Utd

Two of the games tomorrow. If both of them games are draws and we win we catch up with 4 clubs at least by 2 points on one day. If neither game is a draw and we win then minimum 2 clubs caught up by 3 points in 1 day.

Fingers crossed for 2 draws.

Diehard Si · Dec 31, 2012

We havnt had a 'blip' yet. I think the aim has to be 6th place. Other teams have games in hand and this run won't last forever.

covcity4life · Dec 31, 2012

yeh autos are out of reach just like playoffs were:thinking about:

when will some people learn?

sheff utd,bounremouth and donny will be our rivals for top 2 imo.

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 31, 2012

SkyBlueSwiss said:
We haven't had a blip yet?
I thought our first 8 league games were one bloody great big blip!
That's enough blip for one season already.

The optimist could say we've had it, 1st 5 games, that 3 game run where we D to Swindon, L to Notts County and Brentford in a row.

As long as we don't lose and if we look like losing, snatch draws or even a win (MK), wins, from draws (Stevenage) and keep the leads!

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 31, 2012

Diehard Si said:
We havnt had a 'blip' yet. I think the aim has to be 6th place. Other teams have games in hand and this run won't last forever.

On the teams that have games in hand, A) we could over take them so if they win them, they still won't take us (because games are in March?) B) they have to win those games.

fernandopartridge · Dec 31, 2012

covcity4life said:
yeh autos are out of reach just like playoffs were:thinking about:

when will some people learn?

sheff utd,bounremouth and donny will be our rivals for top 2 imo.

We aren't in the play offs yet.

covcity4life · Dec 31, 2012

fernandopartridge said:
We aren't in the play offs yet.

never said we were

but we are 2pts off which is not out of reach so point stands

Astute · Dec 31, 2012

fernandopartridge said:
We aren't in the play offs yet.

Not in the bottom 4 or 14th either

dongonzalos · Dec 31, 2012

My money is on now.
Two bets promotion via play offs
And just a top six finish 3-1.

Marty · Dec 31, 2012

Sky bet are 6/1 on us being promoted.

BackRoomRummermill · Dec 31, 2012

There is no reason why we cant get auto promotion, there is still loads of points to play for

mrtrench · Dec 31, 2012

Automatic promotion is very possible. Look at the table at end of October. 15 games had been played. City were 21st with 14 points and Blades second with 31 points. Difference = 17 points.

Ten games later, today, City are 9th with 37 points and Blades are still second with 46 points. If City can continue this form we at catching at a rate of 8 points every 10 games.

With 21 games remaining, City will overtake Blades and Tranmere at this rate. Actually I am more worried about Brentford and Bournemouth, who similarly are winning almost every game they play.

dongonzalos · Dec 31, 2012

Marty said:
Sky bet are 6/1 on us being promoted.

Arse went for bet victor to get the 25 pound bet matched at 5-1

3-1 is great though just on a top six finish

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