10 more wins does it (24 Viewers)

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Mucca Mad Boys

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
Saddlebrains said:
My reasoning for it is this

Firstly, 4 more wins puts us on 83. 7 games remaining, and we wont lose all 7, we've lost 6 all season. So say we draw 3 of them. Giving us 86 points.

For Boro to get to 87 they would need to get 24 from 12, thats 2 PPG they aint been that rate all season

Ipswich need to get 27 from 13, same as above

One of them could maybe fluke it. Both wont

Add to this, our much superior GD being worth a point if we end up level.

And finally Boro play Ipswich. Guaranteed points dropped one way or another
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Millwall also play Boro and Ipswich away and they’ve gone under the radar a bit. If they beat both, they ought to go up.

From my POV, if they take points off both, it helps us build a gap.

Sky Blue Pete said:
Won’t go up with 83 I don’t think
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No, but we’re also not going to lose 7 games. I think we’ll win 6-7 personally and we’ll be the only team to break 90 points.
 
AFCCOVENTRY

AFCCOVENTRY

Well-Known Member
Watching a few championship analysts and the way things are going for the top 6 in terms of wins it’s likely to be high 80s to secure autos now.
 
T

trevorsathispeake

Active Member
Interesting comparison — this was the Championship table at matchday 35 in 2012/13, the last time a team won the league with fewer than 90 points. Cardiff were on 71 and went on to win it with 87. Sound familiar? We’re sitting on exactly 71 after 35 games, with a significantly better goal difference (+34 vs +20). The gap to 2nd is similar too. Cardiff took just 16 points from their last 11. Hull were 2nd on 79 and Watford 3rd 77.
 

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marrrkjay_ccfc

Well-Known Member
People are forgetting that with the density of the current top five, we are seeing a season where the "average" points for promotion might be slightly lower because the top teams are playing each other so frequently in March and April.

Here are the remaining head-to-head fixtures for the top 5:
  • 3 March: Ipswich vs. Hull
  • 7 March: Hull vs. Millwall
  • 21 March: Ipswich vs. Millwall
  • 3 April: Middlesbrough vs. Millwall
  • 6 April: Coventry vs Hull
  • 18 April: Ipswich vs. Middlesbrough
Because our direct rivals are constantly playing each other, they are mathematically forced to take points away from one another which will lower the total points needed for autos.

How many points does Coventry need?​

To Secure 1st (The Title): 21–23 Points​

To reach a "safe" title-winning total of 92-94 points, Coventry needs roughly 21 more points from their final 11 games.
  • The Record: 7 wins from 11 matches would likely make them untouchable.
  • The "Lower Target": If Middlesbrough and Ipswich draw their head-to-head on April 18, Coventry could actually win the league with as few as 89 points.

To Secure 2nd (Automatic Promotion): 16–18 Points​

Coventry is in a dominant position for 2nd. To reach 87-88 points (the projected promotion line), they only need about 17 more points.
  • The Record: 5 wins and 2 draws from 11 games would almost certainly see them promoted.

How many points do the others need to overtake Coventry?​

For any of the chasing four to overtake Coventry for 1st place, they essentially need Coventry to collapse while they produce a near-perfect run.

TeamPoints to reach Coventry's Current 71Points to reach Coventry's Projected 92Required Form
Middlesbrough829~2.4 PPG (Elite)
Ipswich Town1132~2.4 PPG (Elite)
Millwall930~2.7 PPG (Near Perfect)
Hull City1132~2.6 PPG (Near Perfect)

The "Ipswich Factor"​

Ipswich is the only team with a realistic mathematical path to pressure Coventry for 1st because of their two games in hand. If they win both, they move to 66 points—just 5 behind Coventry. However, they would still need Coventry to lose twice while Ipswich remains perfect.

The "Middlesbrough Threat"​

Middlesbrough's path to 1st relies entirely on Coventry dropping points in their "easier" fixtures against bottom-half teams. If Boro wins 10 of their last 12 (30 points), they finish on 93. If Coventry only wins 6 of their last 11 (18 points + 3 draws = 21 pts), Boro takes the title.

Summary: The "Magic Number" to beat Coventry​

If Coventry continues at their current pace (2.03 PPG), they will finish on 93 points. To beat them:
  • Middlesbrough needs 31 points from 36 available (10 wins).
  • Ipswich needs 34 points from 39 available (11 wins).
  • Millwall needs 32 points from 33 available (basically impossible).
 
Sky Blue Pete

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
marrrkjay_ccfc said:
People are forgetting that with the density of the current top five, we are seeing a season where the "average" points for promotion might be slightly lower because the top teams are playing each other so frequently in March and April.

Here are the remaining head-to-head fixtures for the top 5:
  • 3 March: Ipswich vs. Hull
  • 7 March: Hull vs. Millwall
  • 21 March: Ipswich vs. Millwall
  • 3 April: Middlesbrough vs. Millwall
  • 6 April: Coventry vs Hull
  • 18 April: Ipswich vs. Middlesbrough
Because our direct rivals are constantly playing each other, they are mathematically forced to take points away from one another which will lower the total points needed for autos.

How many points does Coventry need?​

To Secure 1st (The Title): 21–23 Points​

To reach a "safe" title-winning total of 92-94 points, Coventry needs roughly 21 more points from their final 11 games.
  • The Record: 7 wins from 11 matches would likely make them untouchable.
  • The "Lower Target": If Middlesbrough and Ipswich draw their head-to-head on April 18, Coventry could actually win the league with as few as 89 points.

To Secure 2nd (Automatic Promotion): 16–18 Points​

Coventry is in a dominant position for 2nd. To reach 87-88 points (the projected promotion line), they only need about 17 more points.
  • The Record: 5 wins and 2 draws from 11 games would almost certainly see them promoted.

How many points do the others need to overtake Coventry?​

For any of the chasing four to overtake Coventry for 1st place, they essentially need Coventry to collapse while they produce a near-perfect run.

TeamPoints to reach Coventry's Current 71Points to reach Coventry's Projected 92Required Form
Middlesbrough829~2.4 PPG (Elite)
Ipswich Town1132~2.4 PPG (Elite)
Millwall930~2.7 PPG (Near Perfect)
Hull City1132~2.6 PPG (Near Perfect)

The "Ipswich Factor"​

Ipswich is the only team with a realistic mathematical path to pressure Coventry for 1st because of their two games in hand. If they win both, they move to 66 points—just 5 behind Coventry. However, they would still need Coventry to lose twice while Ipswich remains perfect.

The "Middlesbrough Threat"​

Middlesbrough's path to 1st relies entirely on Coventry dropping points in their "easier" fixtures against bottom-half teams. If Boro wins 10 of their last 12 (30 points), they finish on 93. If Coventry only wins 6 of their last 11 (18 points + 3 draws = 21 pts), Boro takes the title.

Summary: The "Magic Number" to beat Coventry​

If Coventry continues at their current pace (2.03 PPG), they will finish on 93 points. To beat them:
  • Middlesbrough needs 31 points from 36 available (10 wins).
  • Ipswich needs 34 points from 39 available (11 wins).
  • Millwall needs 32 points from 33 available (basically impossible).
Click to expand...
We still need win our games and add the points
 
Mucca Mad Boys

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
covboy9 said:
Not if you watched yesterdays highlights 😂
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He was a ropey for both goals. Probably goes to show just how big the difference is between L1 and the Championship.

His goals prevented is the best league believe it or not which summarises Collins to be honest. An excellent shot stopper but is prone to bad mistakes and unfortunately, you can’t tolerate that in the Championship.
 
C

covboy9

Well-Known Member
Mucca Mad Boys said:
He was a ropey for both goals. Probably goes to show just how big the difference is between L1 and the Championship.

His goals prevented is the best league believe it or not which summarises Collins to be honest. An excellent shot stopper but is prone to bad mistakes and unfortunately, you can’t tolerate that in the Championship.
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Not excellent at anything the worst keeper we’ve had for a long time
 
S

SonofErnie

Well-Known Member
The 'cast iron' points total that will get us promoted is 97. In other words 8 wins and 2 draws.

That is in the event that Boro and Ipswich draw when the face each other and win every other game they play. Almost an impossibility.
 
mmttww

mmttww

Well-Known Member
I had us down to do finish on 98 points before the Norwich game. We're tracking two behind that and I want us get more than 90 and win the league. I think we can win two from five on the road I'd back us to win five of six at home. Feels realistic with the depth we've got now.
 
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