10 more wins does it (2 Viewers)

Mucca Mad Boys · Mar 3, 2026

StrettoBoy said:
We mustn’t get overconfident.

Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.

I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.

Can Ipswich and Boro both realistically hit that when they play each other?

The maximum both teams can get is 99 points, 97 if they draw when they play each other. So both teams need 10-1-0 and 12-1-0 to hit the maximum points. By contrast, we could lose 3 times and still hit 96 points, twice for 98. If Boro lose to Ipswich, they can only hit 96 and vice versa.

We’re tracking at 93-94 points based on our averages (weighted home and away), therefore 2 of the chasing requires a perfect return from both teams. Maybe 1 could do it, but not both.

Mucca Mad Boys · Mar 3, 2026

quinn1971 said:
Spot on, we’ve got 6 teams in the top 11 to play, I’d prefer that to teams like Norwich Oxford or QPR who we struggled against, we couldn’t have a better run in

Most importantly, 4 of them are at home where we’ve been flawless under Lampard.

Over 32 home games, our league home record is 24-5-3. That’s a 75% win percentage, we have every reason to expect 4, possibly 5 wins from the remaining 6.

Brighton Sky Blue · Mar 3, 2026

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Most importantly, 4 of them are at home where we’ve been flawless under Lampard.

Over 32 home games, our league home record is 24-5-3. That’s a 75% win percentage, we have every reason to expect 4, possibly 5 wins from the remaining 6.

We have only lost there to teams who went on to go up automatically. Hopefully it stays that way.

StrettoBoy · Mar 3, 2026

Mucca Mad Boys said:
we could lose 3 times and still hit 96 points

It’s actually 95 points if we have 8 wins and 3 defeats but I don’t think that materially affects your reasoning.

KenilworthSkyBlue · Mar 3, 2026

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Can Ipswich and Boro both realistically hit that when they play each other?

The maximum both teams can get is 99 points, 97 if they draw when they play each other. So both teams need 10-1-0 and 12-1-0 to hit the maximum points. By contrast, we could lose 3 times and still hit 96 points, twice for 98. If Boro lose to Ipswich, they can only hit 96 and vice versa.

We’re tracking at 93-94 points based on our averages (weighted home and away), therefore 2 of the chasing requires a perfect return from both teams. Maybe 1 could do it, but not both.

My only slight concern with Ipswich is their away fixtures are all very favourable with exception to Southampton and Norwich.

Their form at home speaks for itself despite being up against tough opponents but I'm hoping they pick up their habit from the first half of the season where they end up drawing a number of games again.

Mucca Mad Boys · Mar 3, 2026

StrettoBoy said:
It’s actually 95 points if we have 8 wins and 3 defeats but I don’t think that materially affects your reasoning.

You’re right, reckon I calculated 95 and used the 96 as the ‘to’ beat. Confused.com.

8 wins means that both Ipswich and Boro can only drop points in one game. 9 wins guarantees we go up in every permutation because Ipswich, Millwall and Boro cannot all get to 96+ points because they all play each other. Someone needs to miss out. Either way, 9 out of 11 wins takes us to 98 points which wins you the league 9.9/10.

Lamps · Mar 3, 2026

Kingokings204 said:
yeah apologies. High 80’s…. So 5 wins would be 86 points. That would be enough for a top 2 imo. It’s a great position to be in

7 wins from 11 for Middlesbrough would be 87 points. 9 from 13 for Ipswich would be 87 points.

As I said before we're in a good position, but lose a game and they both win they get within a win of overtaking us.

But they still have to play each other

But if we win and both of them don't it would be time to put the champagne on ice

Mucca Mad Boys · Mar 3, 2026

KenilworthSkyBlue said:
My only slight concern with Ipswich is their away fixtures are all very favourable with exception to Southampton and Norwich.

Their form at home speaks for itself despite being up against tough opponents but I'm hoping they pick up their habit from the first half of the season where they end up drawing a number of games again.

It is, which is why I back them to go up with us. They play Boro at home and they both can’t get 3 points from that game. The winner of that game probably goes up with us and I back the home team.

Our form speaks for itself too and it’s far better than both of them. With a 75% win record, I’m really not expecting us to drop many points at all. The top half team coming to play us need wins in a crowded field and that favours us imo.

I just can’t see a scenario where we mess up so badly, both Ipswich and Boro overtake us given that they both play Millwall and each other. Both teams have worse home records and we have a stronger away record than Ipswich. Our away schedule is looking favourable too.

Brighton Sky Blue · Mar 3, 2026

Mucca Mad Boys said:
It is, which is why I back them to go up with us. They play Boro at home and they both can’t get 3 points from that game. The winner of that game probably goes up with us and I back the home team.

Our form speaks for itself too and it’s far better than both of them. With a 75% win record, I’m really not expecting us to drop many points at all. The top half team coming to play us need wins in a crowded field and that favours us imo.

I just can’t see a scenario where we mess up so badly, both Ipswich and Boro overtake us given that they both play Millwall and each other. Both teams have worse home records and we have a stronger away record than Ipswich. Our away schedule is looking favourable too.

It’s been assumed that Millwall will fall off, they may well surprise people and take points off Boro and/or Ipswich.

Lamps · Mar 3, 2026

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Can Ipswich and Boro both realistically hit that when they play each other?

The maximum both teams can get is 99 points, 97 if they draw when they play each other. So both teams need 10-1-0 and 12-1-0 to hit the maximum points. By contrast, we could lose 3 times and still hit 96 points, twice for 98. If Boro lose to Ipswich, they can only hit 96 and vice versa.

We’re tracking at 93-94 points based on our averages (weighted home and away), therefore 2 of the chasing requires a perfect return from both teams. Maybe 1 could do it, but not both.

It's 3 words to me. Could, would and should.

The longer we keep the gap the better. It gets more valuable the more games that are played.

Mucca Mad Boys · Mar 3, 2026

Brighton Sky Blue said:
We have only lost there to teams who went on to go up automatically. Hopefully it stays that way.

I’ll premise this comment by saying I favour us to win most games under Lampard… the only loss I actually foresee is Wrexham and that’s probably on the back of us being promoted by then.

Brighton Sky Blue said:
It’s been assumed that Millwall will fall off, they may well surprise people and take points off Boro and/or Ipswich.

That’s a dream scenario, I could see them taking points off Boro and Ipswich, even if it’s 2 draws. It really demonstrates what a good win that was for us. Just as important as beating Boro imo.

Brighton Sky Blue · Mar 3, 2026

Mucca Mad Boys said:
That’s a dream scenario, I could see them taking points off Boro and Ipswich, even if it’s 2 draws. It really demonstrates what a good win that was for us. Just as important as beating Boro imo.

They’re a very well managed side with some dangerous players. Certainly far more impressive than Hull who are completely taking the piss statistically.

Mucca Mad Boys · Mar 3, 2026

Brighton Sky Blue said:
They’re a very well managed side with some dangerous players. Certainly far more impressive than Hull who are completely taking the piss statistically.

The key to their success must be how they set up away from home. Birmingham had the opposite problem where their home form was great up until recently but their away form was awful. Hull’s away form may explain some of the reasons they’re outperforming xG so much.

To make a generalised statement, the home team will tend to have higher xG, possession, shots and so on and most teams are better at home than they are away and Hull have the same points (30 each) with 2 less games played away.

The reason Wrexham and Hull are outperforming xG so much is because they take the lead in most games (only we have taken the lead more often on 28/35 games). Looking at xG in isolation doesn’t account for game state and where a team is losing, they tend to be the aggressor.

Compare that to Birmingham who are 4th in xG but only took the lead in 18/35 games. Which goes to show just how important the first goal in a game is.

Brighton Sky Blue · Mar 3, 2026

Mucca Mad Boys said:
The key to their success must be how they set up away from home. Birmingham had the opposite problem where their home form was great up until recently but their away form was awful. Hull’s away form may explain some of the reasons they’re outperforming xG so much.

To make a generalised statement, the home team will tend to have higher xG, possession, shots and so on and most teams are better at home than they are away and Hull have the same points (30 each) with 2 less games played away.

The reason Wrexham and Hull are outperforming xG so much is because they take the lead in most games (only we have taken the lead more often on 28/35 games). Looking at xG in isolation doesn’t account for game state and where a team is losing, they tend to be the aggressor.

Compare that to Birmingham who are 4th in xG but only took the lead in 18/35 games. Which goes to show just how important the first goal in a game is.

Not if you’re CCFC on the road!

KenilworthSkyBlue · Mar 3, 2026

Mucca Mad Boys said:
It is, which is why I back them to go up with us. They play Boro at home and they both can’t get 3 points from that game. The winner of that game probably goes up with us and I back the home team.

Our form speaks for itself too and it’s far better than both of them. With a 75% win record, I’m really not expecting us to drop many points at all. The top half team coming to play us need wins in a crowded field and that favours us imo.

I just can’t see a scenario where we mess up so badly, both Ipswich and Boro overtake us given that they both play Millwall and each other. Both teams have worse home records and we have a stronger away record than Ipswich. Our away schedule is looking favourable too.

What people are getting a bit wrong here is we don't necessarily have to mess up that badly to fumble autos.

The league has the potential to be much tighter but because of Ipswich's games in hand, which is the uncertain variable, the table just hasn't taken full shape yet.

Ipswich's away record is diluted somewhat with the two games in hand. Win those and they're only a point behind us over the course of the season. Albeit I'll admit you'd rather have the points on the board. Our home record similarly is isn't all that dissimilar with Ipswich's this season.

I do agree Middlesbrough are far the more likely to drop off. They were pretty fortunate last night to play a Birmingham side that just didn't at all feel like showing up and I suspect most teams will look to set up how we, Oxford and Leicester did against them which will cause them issues. If you look at how Birmingham were set up they played such a high line and looked to continually try and go toe to toe with them, so it was always going to end one way really.

I don't expect many more teams will make the same mistake of trying that out for size.

marrrkjay_ccfc · Mar 3, 2026

skybluebristol said:
What's the underlying data feeding into this? I can't find the original post.

It was a mix of various factors, such as PPG, current form, historical results etc. It also added 4 points for Ipswich's games in hand (which is still above their current PPG) instead of simply adding 6 points and crucially, simulated a draw for the Ipswich vs Boro game in April.

jto123 · Mar 3, 2026

marrrkjay_ccfc said:
It was a mix of various factors, such as PPG, current form, historical results etc. It also added 4 points for Ipswich's games in hand (which is still above their current PPG) instead of simply adding 6 points and crucially, simulated a draw for the Ipswich vs Boro game in April.

Ipswich will get 6 points. It’s going to be a lot closer than people hope for.

Ccfcisparks · Mar 3, 2026

jto123 said:
Ipswich will get 6 points. It’s going to be a lot closer than people hope for.

stop panicking ffs

jto123 · Mar 3, 2026

Ccfcisparks said:
stop panicking ffs

I’m not panicking haha. I’ve been saying this for days.

Saddlebrains · Mar 3, 2026

I think im revising my 4 wins to 5 and 2 draws needed after these results

Genuinely thought both of them would drop points

Ccfcisparks · Mar 3, 2026

jto123 said:
I’m not panicking haha. I’ve been saying this for days.

you've already said they have beat pompey before they've played them.

jto123 · Mar 3, 2026

Ccfcisparks said:
you've already said they have beat pompey before they've played them.

Yeah I think that is likely.

Brighton Sky Blue · Mar 3, 2026

Saddlebrains said:
I think im revising my 4 wins to 5 and 2 draws needed after these results

Genuinely thought both of them would drop points

You probably didn’t think Boro would drop points against Oxford and Lesta.

The fact is Ipswich and Boro have to win two more than we do in the remaining games…it’s sort of a shootout.

Sky Blue Pete · Mar 3, 2026

Opta taken a hit
Title 78.32
Autos 94.92

3 horse race

AFCCOVENTRY · Mar 3, 2026

90pts is what we need to aim for.

Mucca Mad Boys · Mar 3, 2026

skybluelee said:
Last 9 we've picked up 19 at 2.1 ppg. Keep that up and we'll finish on 94. So Middlesbrough better buck up their ideas.

Unlike the others, we’ve finished playing our games against the top 4. Yes, we have Hull away but they’re below average at home and they’re probably out of the race for automatics now.

marrrkjay_ccfc · Mar 3, 2026

Our home games are the key. Win 5 out of 6 and we will likely only need 1 or 2 wins away to secure promotion.

I've predicted we'll end up with 92 points:
W4 D1 L1 at home.
W2 D2 L1 away.

That would require Boro to get 27 points from 11 and Ipswich 30 points from 12 to stop us being promoted. A very tall ask.

Edit: just looked back and I've got us finishing on 92 points.

Sky Blue Pete · Mar 3, 2026

marrrkjay_ccfc said:
Our home games are the key. Win 5 out of 6 and we will likely only need 1 or 2 wins away to secure promotion.

I've predicted we'll end up with 91 points:
W4 D1 L1 at home.
W2 D1 L2 away.

That would require Boro to get 26 points from 11 and Ipswich 29 points from 12 to stop us being promoted. A very tall ask.

Does look like 90 Opta still think 84 or so

PUSB-We_are_going_up · Mar 3, 2026

At the moment its 29pts to confirm both promotion and the title as that puts us on 100, and Ipswich and Boro can only get to 99

marrrkjay_ccfc · Mar 3, 2026

Sky Blue Pete said:
Does look like 90 Opta still think 84 or so

Opta still has Ipswich finishing on 84 points which I think will be too low for them. I still think 88 is the number for 2nd. 87 with our GD.

Mucca Mad Boys · Mar 3, 2026

marrrkjay_ccfc said:
Our home games are the key. Win 5 out of 6 and we will likely only need 1 or 2 wins away to secure promotion.

I've predicted we'll end up with 91 points:
W4 D1 L1 at home.
W2 D1 L2 away.

That would require Boro to get 26 points from 11 and Ipswich 29 points from 12 to stop us being promoted. A very tall ask.

I don’t think we’ll lose 3 games between now and the end of the season. There’s tough games to come but we’ve played the best teams at home and away.

Based on the averages, 2 losses sounds about right but nothing is really standing out to me. Swansea and Hull will be tough but we’ve won at harder places this season.

Ccfcisparks · Mar 3, 2026

probably lose out to ipswich by a point

Liquid Gold · Mar 3, 2026

Just one of those weekends where it clicks for everyone. It won't happen all the time and we did our job.

Get another win on Saturday and even if the same thing happens again the window is closing for us to be caught.

AFCCOVENTRY · Mar 3, 2026

Sky Blue Pete said:
Does look like 90 Opta still think 84 or so

Analysts are saying 87/88 might do it for 2nd but it’s going to be close. Much happier with a 90+ finish to stay in control

AFCCOVENTRY · Mar 3, 2026

Liquid Gold said:
Just one of those weekends where it clicks for everyone. It won't happen all the time and we did our job.

Get another win on Saturday and even if the same thing happens again the window is closing for us to be caught.

Ipswich v Boro is going to be a key move between those two I feel.

10 more wins does it (2 Viewers)

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