10 more wins does it (10 Viewers)

StrettoBoy said:

We mustn’t get overconfident.

Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.

I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.

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Can Ipswich and Boro both realistically hit that when they play each other?

The maximum both teams can get is 99 points, 97 if they draw when they play each other. So both teams need 10-1-0 and 12-1-0 to hit the maximum points. By contrast, we could lose 3 times and still hit 96 points, twice for 98. If Boro lose to Ipswich, they can only hit 96 and vice versa.

We’re tracking at 93-94 points based on our averages (weighted home and away), therefore 2 of the chasing requires a perfect return from both teams. Maybe 1 could do it, but not both.

quinn1971 said:

Spot on, we’ve got 6 teams in the top 11 to play, I’d prefer that to teams like Norwich Oxford or QPR who we struggled against, we couldn’t have a better run in

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Most importantly, 4 of them are at home where we’ve been flawless under Lampard.

Over 32 home games, our league home record is 24-5-3. That’s a 75% win percentage, we have every reason to expect 4, possibly 5 wins from the remaining 6.

Mucca Mad Boys said:

Most importantly, 4 of them are at home where we’ve been flawless under Lampard.

Over 32 home games, our league home record is 24-5-3. That’s a 75% win percentage, we have every reason to expect 4, possibly 5 wins from the remaining 6.

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We have only lost there to teams who went on to go up automatically. Hopefully it stays that way.

Mucca Mad Boys said:

we could lose 3 times and still hit 96 points

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It’s actually 95 points if we have 8 wins and 3 defeats but I don’t think that materially affects your reasoning.

Mucca Mad Boys said:

Can Ipswich and Boro both realistically hit that when they play each other?

The maximum both teams can get is 99 points, 97 if they draw when they play each other. So both teams need 10-1-0 and 12-1-0 to hit the maximum points. By contrast, we could lose 3 times and still hit 96 points, twice for 98. If Boro lose to Ipswich, they can only hit 96 and vice versa.

We’re tracking at 93-94 points based on our averages (weighted home and away), therefore 2 of the chasing requires a perfect return from both teams. Maybe 1 could do it, but not both.

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My only slight concern with Ipswich is their away fixtures are all very favourable with exception to Southampton and Norwich.

Their form at home speaks for itself despite being up against tough opponents but I'm hoping they pick up their habit from the first half of the season where they end up drawing a number of games again.

StrettoBoy said:

It’s actually 95 points if we have 8 wins and 3 defeats but I don’t think that materially affects your reasoning.

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You’re right, reckon I calculated 95 and used the 96 as the ‘to’ beat. Confused.com.

8 wins means that both Ipswich and Boro can only drop points in one game. 9 wins guarantees we go up in every permutation because Ipswich, Millwall and Boro cannot all get to 96+ points because they all play each other. Someone needs to miss out. Either way, 9 out of 11 wins takes us to 98 points which wins you the league 9.9/10.

Kingokings204 said:

yeah apologies. High 80’s…. So 5 wins would be 86 points. That would be enough for a top 2 imo. It’s a great position to be in

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7 wins from 11 for Middlesbrough would be 87 points. 9 from 13 for Ipswich would be 87 points.

As I said before we're in a good position, but lose a game and they both win they get within a win of overtaking us.

But they still have to play each other

But if we win and both of them don't it would be time to put the champagne on ice

KenilworthSkyBlue said:

My only slight concern with Ipswich is their away fixtures are all very favourable with exception to Southampton and Norwich.

Their form at home speaks for itself despite being up against tough opponents but I'm hoping they pick up their habit from the first half of the season where they end up drawing a number of games again.

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It is, which is why I back them to go up with us. They play Boro at home and they both can’t get 3 points from that game. The winner of that game probably goes up with us and I back the home team.

Our form speaks for itself too and it’s far better than both of them. With a 75% win record, I’m really not expecting us to drop many points at all. The top half team coming to play us need wins in a crowded field and that favours us imo.

I just can’t see a scenario where we mess up so badly, both Ipswich and Boro overtake us given that they both play Millwall and each other. Both teams have worse home records and we have a stronger away record than Ipswich. Our away schedule is looking favourable too.

Mucca Mad Boys said:

It is, which is why I back them to go up with us. They play Boro at home and they both can’t get 3 points from that game. The winner of that game probably goes up with us and I back the home team.

Our form speaks for itself too and it’s far better than both of them. With a 75% win record, I’m really not expecting us to drop many points at all. The top half team coming to play us need wins in a crowded field and that favours us imo.

I just can’t see a scenario where we mess up so badly, both Ipswich and Boro overtake us given that they both play Millwall and each other. Both teams have worse home records and we have a stronger away record than Ipswich. Our away schedule is looking favourable too.

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It’s been assumed that Millwall will fall off, they may well surprise people and take points off Boro and/or Ipswich.

Mucca Mad Boys said:

Can Ipswich and Boro both realistically hit that when they play each other?

The maximum both teams can get is 99 points, 97 if they draw when they play each other. So both teams need 10-1-0 and 12-1-0 to hit the maximum points. By contrast, we could lose 3 times and still hit 96 points, twice for 98. If Boro lose to Ipswich, they can only hit 96 and vice versa.

We’re tracking at 93-94 points based on our averages (weighted home and away), therefore 2 of the chasing requires a perfect return from both teams. Maybe 1 could do it, but not both.

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It's 3 words to me. Could, would and should.

The longer we keep the gap the better. It gets more valuable the more games that are played.

Brighton Sky Blue said:

We have only lost there to teams who went on to go up automatically. Hopefully it stays that way.

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I’ll premise this comment by saying I favour us to win most games under Lampard… the only loss I actually foresee is Wrexham and that’s probably on the back of us being promoted by then.

Brighton Sky Blue said:

It’s been assumed that Millwall will fall off, they may well surprise people and take points off Boro and/or Ipswich.

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That’s a dream scenario, I could see them taking points off Boro and Ipswich, even if it’s 2 draws. It really demonstrates what a good win that was for us. Just as important as beating Boro imo.

Mucca Mad Boys said:

That’s a dream scenario, I could see them taking points off Boro and Ipswich, even if it’s 2 draws. It really demonstrates what a good win that was for us. Just as important as beating Boro imo.

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They’re a very well managed side with some dangerous players. Certainly far more impressive than Hull who are completely taking the piss statistically.

Brighton Sky Blue said:

They’re a very well managed side with some dangerous players. Certainly far more impressive than Hull who are completely taking the piss statistically.

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The key to their success must be how they set up away from home. Birmingham had the opposite problem where their home form was great up until recently but their away form was awful. Hull’s away form may explain some of the reasons they’re outperforming xG so much.

To make a generalised statement, the home team will tend to have higher xG, possession, shots and so on and most teams are better at home than they are away and Hull have the same points (30 each) with 2 less games played away.

The reason Wrexham and Hull are outperforming xG so much is because they take the lead in most games (only we have taken the lead more often on 28/35 games). Looking at xG in isolation doesn’t account for game state and where a team is losing, they tend to be the aggressor.

Compare that to Birmingham who are 4th in xG but only took the lead in 18/35 games. Which goes to show just how important the first goal in a game is.

Mucca Mad Boys said:

The key to their success must be how they set up away from home. Birmingham had the opposite problem where their home form was great up until recently but their away form was awful. Hull’s away form may explain some of the reasons they’re outperforming xG so much.

To make a generalised statement, the home team will tend to have higher xG, possession, shots and so on and most teams are better at home than they are away and Hull have the same points (30 each) with 2 less games played away.

The reason Wrexham and Hull are outperforming xG so much is because they take the lead in most games (only we have taken the lead more often on 28/35 games). Looking at xG in isolation doesn’t account for game state and where a team is losing, they tend to be the aggressor.

Compare that to Birmingham who are 4th in xG but only took the lead in 18/35 games. Which goes to show just how important the first goal in a game is.

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Not if you’re CCFC on the road!

Mucca Mad Boys said:

It is, which is why I back them to go up with us. They play Boro at home and they both can’t get 3 points from that game. The winner of that game probably goes up with us and I back the home team.

Our form speaks for itself too and it’s far better than both of them. With a 75% win record, I’m really not expecting us to drop many points at all. The top half team coming to play us need wins in a crowded field and that favours us imo.

I just can’t see a scenario where we mess up so badly, both Ipswich and Boro overtake us given that they both play Millwall and each other. Both teams have worse home records and we have a stronger away record than Ipswich. Our away schedule is looking favourable too.

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What people are getting a bit wrong here is we don't necessarily have to mess up that badly to fumble autos.

The league has the potential to be much tighter but because of Ipswich's games in hand, which is the uncertain variable, the table just hasn't taken full shape yet.

Ipswich's away record is diluted somewhat with the two games in hand. Win those and they're only a point behind us over the course of the season. Albeit I'll admit you'd rather have the points on the board. Our home record similarly is isn't all that dissimilar with Ipswich's this season.

I do agree Middlesbrough are far the more likely to drop off. They were pretty fortunate last night to play a Birmingham side that just didn't at all feel like showing up and I suspect most teams will look to set up how we, Oxford and Leicester did against them which will cause them issues. If you look at how Birmingham were set up they played such a high line and looked to continually try and go toe to toe with them, so it was always going to end one way really.

I don't expect many more teams will make the same mistake of trying that out for size.

skybluebristol said:

What's the underlying data feeding into this? I can't find the original post.

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It was a mix of various factors, such as PPG, current form, historical results etc. It also added 4 points for Ipswich's games in hand (which is still above their current PPG) instead of simply adding 6 points and crucially, simulated a draw for the Ipswich vs Boro game in April.