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  1. mrfr

    Stoke ratings

    I thought Esse had a very poor game. Several occasions where he lost the ball in tight spaces by trying to turn and beat a player with his first touch instead of recognising the situation around him and either playing an easy pass or putting himself between the ball and the defender to just...
  2. mrfr

    Match Thread Coventry City - Stoke City Sat 28th Feb 3pm ko

    It hit the post and went out.
  3. mrfr

    Championship thread 25/26!

    Actually, I messed up a bit, here’s a corrected version. Computers are hard. The model has millwall finishing second 😲 EFL Championship 2025/26 — Promotion Probability Model (after GW35, 25 Feb 2026) 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations | home/away PPG + xG differential + last-6 form + decay factor...
  4. mrfr

    Championship thread 25/26!

    Yeah, it feels super low, the model is factoring in difficulty of remaining fixture though and it doesn’t like boro’s run in.
  5. mrfr

    Championship thread 25/26!

    Updated my model and simulation based on tonight’s results. EFL Championship 2025/26 — Promotion Probability Model (after GW35, 25 Feb 2026) 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations | home/away PPG + xG differential + last-6 form + decay factor Ties on projected points broken by current GD + projected...
  6. mrfr

    Match Thread Shef Utd - Coventry City Match Thread Wednesday 25th Feb 19.45 KO

    Michael Cooper having the biggest fall off since Felix Baumgartner.
  7. mrfr

    Match Thread Shef Utd - Coventry City Match Thread Wednesday 25th Feb 19.45 KO

    The only rings he’s running are onion rings.
  8. mrfr

    Match Thread Shef Utd - Coventry City Match Thread Wednesday 25th Feb 19.45 KO

    Gus looks like he had a good Christmas.
  9. mrfr

    Match Thread Shef Utd - Coventry City Match Thread Wednesday 25th Feb 19.45 KO

    I’d stick Wright on Tanganga all second half, he looks well off it and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he got himself sent off if placed under some pressure on the break. I’d leave EMC on but bring KKH on for JDS and I’d bring Torp on for Sakamoto and move Rudoni out wide.
  10. mrfr

    Match Thread Shef Utd - Coventry City Match Thread Wednesday 25th Feb 19.45 KO

    Wilder is such a prick, but fair play to the blades club shop for stocking tracksuits made for fat 9 year olds, it fits him a treat.
  11. mrfr

    Transfer Rumour Yang Min-hyeok

    At this rate he’ll be getting recalled by spurs so he can manage them at some point this season.
  12. mrfr

    Updated remaining fixtures for autos challengers

    Just a python script with some opinionated inputs - the model blends each team’s season form with their last six results (weighting recent games 60/40), adjusts for remaining fixture difficulty and games in hand and then runs that same set of inputs 100,000 times to produce a probability per...
  13. mrfr

    Updated remaining fixtures for autos challengers

    I’ve been running a projection model on the full Championship table, not just naive PPG stuff, but a blended model that factors in recent form, fixture difficulty and games in hand, and I’ve run those factors through 100,000 simulations, these are the results after today’s games: 92.7%...
  14. mrfr

    Leicester At It Yet Again!

    let’s start a petition for SISU to buy them.
  15. mrfr

    25/26 January Transfer Window

    Why, who did you sign?
  16. mrfr

    25/26 January Transfer Window

    Just saw Raheem Sterling at the big car wash next to Harry Shaw's in Bedworth
  17. mrfr

    Match Thread Queens Park Rangers - Coventry City Match Thread - Saturday 31st Jan

    Why is their manager dressed like he is going to a Sopranos-themed fancy dress party straight after the game?
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