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Do you think this interview was a makeweight for getting the BBC to change the match day line up to spare Frank and the players? 😂

Good of Annie Lennox to pop in whilst she’s out injured.

0.05 xG per shot. They must’ve all been from their own half.

Someone needs to explain to Heckingbottom how numbers work. You can’t have three ‘first contacts’.

34 shots 😁

I wonder if Yang Min Hyoek will be recalled by Spurs to play in goal for the return leg against Athletico. Might be good for him to play for a team at a lower level.

Go on Charlton!

I’ve never been so relaxed watching us play. Very odd.

Never liked stoke. What a dump.

Always liked Stoke. Lovely place. Great club.

😱

Up the potters.

A new run of my simulation after today. Today is the day I think we tipped into nailed on champions territory. And now the model thinks Leicester are going down too. Lovely stuff. # Team Pts GP Rem Med | Champions Auto Playoff Relegated...

No loan player should ever win POTS awards. Give it him if he’s coming back but otherwise put the feather in the cap of someone who will be here next season and have the boost that goes with the recognition. I’d give it Grimes. So many great performances around the team but he’s the one who I...

0.79, with a 45% chance of them not scoring and an 81% chance of them scoring 0 or 1. Still might be a bit generous 😂

That is an attempt to bake in some home advantage because if you don’t do that then any team with an uneven number of home/away fixtures remaining will have their xG skewed in one direction or another compared to their PPG. The 10% boost/penalty is an arbitrary number though, you’re right about...

It’s not arbitrary, it’s actual goals, that’s a less arbitrary measure than xG, surely? But sure, it’s entirely opinionated, we could just try reading tea leaves.

Because xG measures the quality of chances created, not the quality of finishing, and its finishing which determines goals, not chances. Over the course of the season we have outperformed xG by 0.3 goals per game which over the course of 35 games becomes a pretty meaningful difference.

Step 1: Build a blended attack rating for Coventry and a blended defensive rating for each opponent. Rather than relying solely on xG stats or actual goals, we blend the two equally. For Cov in attack, we average season xGF per game (1.74 from Opta) and actual goals per game (2.06 across 35...

Using the same model I built to project final league positions, this is how it sees our final goal tally. Only a 1.3% chance of scoring 100 goals. Current: 72 goals in 35 games (2.06 per game) Remaining: 11 fixtures Projected final total: Central estimate: 89 goals (median) Mean...