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The 1970s. Our electoral system has gone through alternating predominance where one party dominates for multiple terms. If Starmer was genuinely popular, I’d 100% agree that the Tories are done for a generation. He isn’t and the electorate seem more intent on punishing the Tories (rightfully...

Frankly, we don’t know because the leader’s of tomorrow seemingly come out nowhere. Sunak himself was junior minister and relative unknown in 2019 - elected MP in 2015, he’s relatively inexperienced. Likewise with Labour, Starmer hasn’t even been an MP for 9 years yet (relatively inexperienced)...

5 years ago, it was unfathomable that Labour would overturn an 80-seat majority in this election. They’re on a precipice of a record majority and complacency would be dangerous for Labour. Echoes of 1945-51 in terms of the electoral outlook. Labour overturning a massive majority with people...

Pure opinion here, I think the electorate will tire of the Labour Party quickly in government. In 1997, the electorate were genuinely enthusiastic about Blair and his vision of ‘third way’ politics. There isn’t that same enthusiasm for Starmer and most of the key policies are tinkering around...

Duh. Blair is obviously far right.

It’s not helpful when you choose to not define what you call far right. The big difference is that Nigel Farage is an ex-Tory, whereas the National Rally and Brother’s of Italy have their roots in neo-nazi/fascist movements. That’s a starting point. The AfD, started as a breakup from the CDU...

On the topic of the New Deal, you actually needed one! 😂

I’ll humour you, first, how would you define ‘far right?’

No coincidence that most of the EU countries are considering this too. Australia processes asylum seekers in 3rd countries as well and no one would consider that country ‘far right’. It’s an issue affecting Europe and the wider anglophone world and if unchecked, it will fester into something...

This line of thinking shows how disconnected a lot of Labour thinkers are from their core voters. The electorate has had immigration on its mind since the New Labour years. Immigration was a mainstream issue before UKIP was a meaningful force in UK politics. The odious BNP nearly won MPs...

What are you talking about? I’m talking about Labour and Tory policies. We need a sensible centre-left/centre-right government to tackle the issue. If they fail then something uglier could follow. The only reason I ‘care’ about immigration as an issue is I see the potential ramifications of...

Well, EU migration has declined so Brexit has delivered on that priority. However, ROW migration is up. I don’t think Farage is the answer, but the electorate clearly does not trust either Labour or Conservative on this issue. Continued failure on this policy objective puts us on a trajectory...

The targets, however, remain the same and there appears to be no desire to make up the shortfall of around 200k houses per year based on net migration alone (there’s more factors to consider). So best case scenario, we just or marginally beat the existing government target. Look, I agree that...

No Shmmeee, their overall policy is to hit the same targets as the current government. Why would that be? The most charitable assumption would be it’s an opportunity for good PR by beating the targets. More likely, they don’t think the policies will have that much of an impact. Why else keep...

It’s a consequence of the centre-left in addressing the concerns of their traditional working class base. In the UK, you can trace this disconnect back to Brown’s ‘bigot-gate’ on the campaign trail. If Labour can find an answer to net migration, they’ll be in power for 3-4 parliaments. If things...

Lurched to the right, as expected. I wonder how the EU will be viewed by the centre/centre-left when Starmer needs to deal with an EU that’s a lot more RW than our government. I wonder if he’ll be as keen on EU alignment.

After England’s poor loss to Iceland, there’s some news to make us feel better: - Portugal losing to Croatia - Italy unconvincing against Bosnia - France drawing with Canada 0-0 - Wales lost (and they’re staying home)

Labour might not be safe either, the Greens could make real inroads if they fumble it in government. Reform will take a lot of votes from Labour in the Midlands and the North. If anything, I think Labour’s electoral coalition is more fragile than the Conservatives.

Agreed. Labour will win this election purely because the public have had enough of the Tories. In my view, a lot of people are going to be disappointed. Rachel Reeves is an ex-banker, she will not deviate from the orthodoxy at the OBR. The same orthodoxy that’s led to low growth, soaring asset...

One of Labour’s ideas was to bring in ‘top-down’ targets from central government. A policy that the tories had in their tenure and scrapped It’s well and good saying they will build houses and ‘new towns’ but the delivery seems identical to the previous government. I struggle to see how...