Championship thread 25/26! (111 Viewers)

[Shannerz]

Southampton are such massive shite bags that I actually want Wrectum to keep them out of the play offs. Congratulations boys, you've made the list.

Wrexham are also massive shitebags, as well as being Wrexham.

 

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[SkyBlue_Bear83]

@Ipad Boro hoodoos are there to be broken

Or not considering Millwall had only won 2 of the last 20 matches v Blackburn

 

[Otis]

The only downside for me apart from the fact that we lost is that Ipswich are the main benefactors. Whilst this was a bit of a foregone conclusion I am still disappointed because I really cannot stand them

 

[AOM]

Not the worst set of results today really. Still have a 7 point cushion even with the loss, and that was probably our most difficult game remaining.

Millwall, Ipswich and Middlesbrough all to take points off each other as well.

 

[prufrock]

Anyone know what the Hughes sending off for Hull was for? Hopefully he misses 3 games (which would be suspension when we play them)

 

[SkyBlue_Bear83]

Anyone know what the Hughes sending off for Hull was for? Hopefully he misses 3 games (which would be suspension when we play them)

Last man so will be 1

 

[HadjiChippo]

On the Leicester forum, didn’t take long for them to turn on Rowett

 

[JSL]

Looks like we got away with losing today aside Ipswich winning, other results went in our favour. We need to make our own destiny though and stop 'getting away with it'

 

[AFCCOVENTRY]

Results went our way pretty much today bar Ipswich. Take that,

 

[Liquid Gold]

We need to make our own destiny though and stop 'getting away with it'

We've just won 6 on the bounce, a loss was inevitable eventually.

 

[Sky Blue Goblin]

Looks like we got away with losing today aside Ipswich winning, other results went in our favour. We need to make our own destiny though and stop 'getting away with it'

I get what you’re saying but we have just won six in seven. Need to keep the lose in perspective

 

[Liquid Gold]

Or not considering Millwall had only won 2 of the last 20 matches v Blackburn

Hoodoo v Voodoo

 

[CraigSBA]

For what its worth i think we will finish closer to 90

That boro ipswich race could be a classic , youd hate to miss out on GD

 

[TomRad85]

Looks like we got away with losing today aside Ipswich winning, other results went in our favour. We need to make our own destiny though and stop 'getting away with it'

We you 6 on the spin to move away from the pack and go clear at the top!

 

[mrfr]

Updated my nerdy simulation after today, and it’s good news:

Despite losing today, our promotion prospects are still absolutely nailed on — 94.7% automatic promotion probability across 100,000 simulations, barely budging from 95.3% before kick-off. With 77 points and 8 games to go, the gap to the chasing pack is just too big for one defeat to matter, and even in our worst-case fifth percentile we’re still finishing on 87 points. Best of all though, Leicester are now 74.7% likely to be dropping into League One. Lol.

 

[jto123]

Ipswich were always going to win, results been amazing for us! Just a shame we didn’t take advantage of them

Hard not to think that way, but suppose we have to thank small mercies. Our next few games we will be playing second so pressure will be on, but just got to find 12 points by hook or by crook.

 

[Warwickhunt]

Hoodoos exist for good reason in our experience. No matter how against the run of play or statistically improbable it is, something will happen, we will find a way not to triumph.

I suppose as well as nerves there's a statisical reason too, such as us having less prep time than the overwhelming majority of our 7 opponents in this recent poor run thanks to Sky, but nah, the Hoodoo trumps those as a reason for us!

However...the only possible Hoodoo remaining is Wembley. Meaning we get a good shot at getting the autos from here on in. Oh and the prep time stat is levelled too for the remaining 8 now, so we don't get that disadvantage. But again, the absence of a Hoodoo is always more central to our thoughts. So long as our confidence isn't too shot by that run of form, we're in with a real shout now.

That's how bookies make money

 

[Ccfcisparks]

Hard not to think that way, but suppose we have to thank small mercies. Our next few games we will be playing second so pressure will be on, but just got to find 12 points by hook or by crook.

12?

 

[jto123]

12?

I reckon 4 wins maybe with a draw will do it

 

[Ccfcisparks]

I reckon 4 wins maybe with a draw will do it

The title I assume you mean

 

[Grendel]

Hard not to think that way, but suppose we have to thank small mercies. Our next few games we will be playing second so pressure will be on, but just got to find 12 points by hook or by crook.

How do we need 12 points? Who below is us getting 20 on current form?

 

[Ipad Boro]

I'd say that's about right.

Ipswich would have to get 5 wins in 9 to get there and they are playing Boro and Millwall.

Boro need to win 4 and draw 1 in 8 playing Ipswich Millwall and being in shit form.

Millwall would need to 5 win in 8 playing Ipswich and Boro.

We however, need two wins in 8 to get that and we have a far superior goal difference. We also have Wednesday still to play.

I'd be optimistic if the threshold to guarantee promotion was just us getting 83 points.

As the results we'd need to get it in those 8 games, would only be one point more than we got in the last 8, in our shittest form of the whole season, as you say.

With no Hoodoos in sight now. Even "Typical Boro" decrees that we beat Ipswich before losing to the worst side this league has ever seen.

However I have a nagging feeling that more points than 83 will be needed unfortunately. I wouldn't be surprised if the side in 2nd gets somewhere between 85-88 points (and I'd love us do it at the top limit as I'm a big Back To The Future fan)

I also don't think that will affect you as you'll finish top regardless. The gap may be closed further, especially if you win the title with games to go and get into celebration mode, but you're still going to finish the season exactly where you are now. The stars are aligning right for you and it's deserved too.

 

[Flying Fokker]

Not the worst set of results today really. Still have a 7 point cushion even with the loss, and that was probably our most difficult game remaining.

Millwall, Ipswich and Middlesbrough all to take points off each other as well.

Swansea, Derby, Hull, Wrexham, and any of the rest really. Respect all of those teams.

I think the games we don’t feature in will be bigger outcomes for our promotion/ Champion

 

[Sick Boy]

Looks like we got away with losing today aside Ipswich winning, other results went in our favour. We need to make our own destiny though and stop 'getting away with it'

We're hardly "getting away with it" - before today we'd won 6 in a row.

 

[torchomatic]

Boro and Millwall dropping points today has effectively made our defeat a bit of a free hit. We were never going to win every game and today was the match out of the remaining nine I was concerned about.

All downhill from here on in.

 

[jto123]

The title I assume you mean

Hmmm…I think for promotion I’d want 90 for complete certainty.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Updated my nerdy simulation after today, and it’s good news:

Despite losing today, our promotion prospects are still absolutely nailed on — 94.7% automatic promotion probability across 100,000 simulations, barely budging from 95.3% before kick-off. With 77 points and 8 games to go, the gap to the chasing pack is just too big for one defeat to matter, and even in our worst-case fifth percentile we’re still finishing on 87 points. Best of all though, Leicester are now 74.7% likely to be dropping into League One. Lol.

What’s it saying with respect to autos threshold?

 

[Ccfcisparks]

Hmmm…I think for promotion I’d want 90 for complete certainty.

LOL

 

[Otis]

We've just won 6 on the bounce, a loss was inevitable eventually.

Yup. That's what I have been saying. We knew we couldn't win 9 in a row, so points were always going to be dropped somewhere down the line and logic said that we would probably lose one or two on the way.

It's been a good afternoon for us, after our defeat.

 

[BackRoomRummermill]

It’s another game chalked off - down to 8 games left and we are way clear (i know Ipswich have an extra game ) 3 more wins does it for me

 

[jto123]

How do we need 12 points? Who below is us getting 20 on current form?

You’d hope nobody, but just in terms of certainty.

 

[Grendel]

Hmmm…I think for promotion I’d want 90 for complete certainty.

So two teams below us are getting 20 points - who?

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Crazy crazy results today lol, absolutely massive

 

[jto123]

So two teams below us are getting 20 points - who?

I don’t know ultimately. I’m not talking about what’s likely. I’m saying for certainty you’d want 90 points.

 

[CraigSBA]

If Boro ipswich and millwall all got 2PPG until the end

Ipswich would have 86
Boro would have 86
Millwall would have 84

We have to play 3 of the bottom 6 still 2 of them at home