Match Thread Coventry City - Southampton Match Thread - Saturday 14th Mar (75 Viewers)

[Otis]

The Wrexham victory has probably stoked the fire a lot in terms of Southampton needing a result now that they are 6 points away from the playoff places. They will have to win in reality which will probably suit us. Might be a hammer and tongs type game.

That's no good to me. I am usually a "no tongs" kind of guy.

 

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[wingy]

That's no good to me. I am usually a "no tongs" kind of guy.

You don't still have a fire do? Although I think Adge has!

 

[Johhny Blue]

Which is 50/50 each time . The probability on the games haven't been that

Which brings me back to the original point I was addressing. A 50/50 chance

 

[Adge]

You don't still have a fire do? Although I think Adge has!

Log burner for me Boss

 

[Ccfcisparks]

Could we perhaps throw this game to allow Southampton to close the gap on Wrexham?

 

[ccfc1292]

Could we perhaps throw this game to allow Southampton to close the gap on Wrexham?

Why lol?

 

[Shannerz]

Could we perhaps throw this game to allow Southampton to close the gap on Wrexham?

 

[Ccfcisparks]

Go to bed its late Shannon

 

[Shannerz]

Go to bed its late Shannon

 

[Somerset Sky Blue]

But that's at evens .. Different

Not exactly evens though, as you have the green 0 and sometimes green 00, which shifts the probability in favour of the house, (as just under evens).

 

[clint van damme]

Can't stop thinking about the game, literally can't wait

View attachment 49898

I'm feeling very confident, which I don't like. Like a bit of bed wetting and trepidation going into a game ideally.

 

[AFCCOVENTRY]

Let’s go

 

[SIR ERNIE]

Setting off from Hampshire in about an hour.
Excited and expectant of a high energy performance like the Boro game.
Get into them early.

 

[procdoc]

Will be a different performance today as I expect them to have the majority of possession like Borolona did.

 

[Gynnsthetonic]

Will be a different performance today as I expect them to have the majority of possession like Borolona did.

We dominated at their place until we went down to 10 men.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The opportunity to set a club record 7th consecutive league win today, but tough opposition to do it against. Keep that same intensity and work rate from Wednesday going and the quality will do the rest.

 

[Ccfcisparks]

The opportunity to set a club record 7th consecutive league win today, but tough opposition to do it against. Keep that same intensity and work rate from Wednesday going and the quality will do the rest.

Id say there was very little intensity and work rate wednesday because we didnt need to!

Perhaps the intensity from the Boro game

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Id say there was very little intensity and work rate wednesday because we didnt need to!

Perhaps the intensity from the Boro game

There was first 30 or so

 

[StrettoBoy]

As with all of our recent games - and no doubt the remaining ones until we clinch the title - I’m full of nervous excitement for this one. I want a win and think we can do it but I won’t be too down if we draw, as it will be another point towards our ultimate aim. I’m going to stick with my prediction of 2-1 to us.

PUSB

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Id say there was very little intensity and work rate wednesday because we didnt need to!

Perhaps the intensity from the Boro game

First half there was, then the game was sealed shortly after half time. Impressed me anyway

 

[theferret]

Close to a must win for them, expect them to have a right go, and press high, and we've not always coped well with that (could be wrong and maybe they'll sit, but can't see it). Could work in our favour though. It will be the polar opposite of the game Wednesday. Need to match their energy and aggression. That we're a better team than them in all departments won't matter much if we don't. Quietly confident, but this will be tough.

 

[covhead1]

2-0 Sky blues
We don't need to fear any team in this league.
But we should not underestimate any team either,
This has the potential to be a cracker of a game!
PUSB!

 

[skybluelee]

Close to a must win for them, expect them to have a right go, and press high, and we've not always coped well with that (could be wrong and maybe they'll sit, but can't see it). Could work in our favour though. It will be the polar opposite of the game Wednesday. Need to match their energy and aggression. That we're a better team than them in all departments won't matter much if we don't. Quietly confident, but this will be tough.

They were lethargic midweek according to their fans after their cup win on Sunday, I hope they do press aggressively as we should be able to pick them off second half

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

They were lethargic midweek according to their fans after their cup win on Sunday, I hope they do press aggressively as we should be able to pick them off second half

Yep they must be really confident getting a late away point at the baggies

 

[theferret]

They were lethargic midweek according to their fans after their cup win on Sunday, I hope they do press aggressively as we should be able to pick them off second half

Yeah, might work in our favour. Different game though and they're likely to approach it with a different mindset to the game in the week. We'll see I suppose. But if we're on it, we should win the game.

 

[alexccfc99]

7 League Wins in a row if we win today? Have we ever done that before?

 

[skyblueelephant76]

They were lethargic midweek according to their fans after their cup win on Sunday, I hope they do press aggressively as we should be able to pick them off second half

Apparently they've stayed at St George's Park all week.

 

[Lamps]

2-0 Sky blues
We don't need to fear any team in this league.
But we should not underestimate any team either,
This has the potential to be a cracker of a game!
PUSB!

At this stage of the season I would prefer 3 points to a very good game to watch. Hit them from the start and take a 2 or 3 goal lead into HT. Then just control the ball in the 2nd half would do nicely.

 

[Nick]

Nervous

 

[Balli001]

Apparently they've stayed at St George's Park all week.

Well only 2 nights in reality as they stayed after the West Brom game

 

[Otis]

Close to a must win for them, expect them to have a right go, and press high, and we've not always coped well with that (could be wrong and maybe they'll sit, but can't see it). Could work in our favour though. It will be the polar opposite of the game Wednesday. Need to match their energy and aggression. That we're a better team than them in all departments won't matter much if we don't. Quietly confident, but this will be tough.

Same

I AM quietly confident, but think it could be very close.

Would be fine with a draw, but of course we are capable of beating them.

Hard to predict, but am going to stick with what I said yesterday and 1-1. Or a higher scoring draw

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

7 League Wins in a row if we win today? Have we ever done that before?

No.

 

[Ccfcisparks]

Rushworth

Mve Woolf Kitching JDS
grimes Onyeka
Saka. Bta Emc
Wright

 

[covcity4life]

I'm not nervous at all


Which is kinda making me nervous

A draw not end of world so maybe that's why I'm not worried

 

[Snaily]

Regression toward the mean - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Often misunderstood. It is better applied to stable means (toss of a coin, roll of a dice) rather than probability of winning football matches which is affected by which players play etc.

It simply states that if you have out/underperformed the mean in the short term, over time your short term mean will move back to the long term mean.

It does not say that the previous short terms sequence of events affects the next event

In City’s case: if we assume our (ahem) long-term mean wins is 6 out of 10 (or 0.6, ie close to this season), but short term mean is 6 out of 6, then although the chance of us winning the next game is unchanged (6/10), our average will move back to the mean:

Short term run: 6 games, 6 wins: Short team mean is 1
Next 10 games, 6 wins (ie no change to probability of winning any single game), total run is now 12 wins out of 16 games: Short term mean is now down to 0.73 ie it has reverted to mean despite no change in the probability of us winning any single game.

The belief that the short term run of events affects the probability of the next event is called Gambler’s Fallacy and has lost a lot of people a lot of money!!!