Autos - Who Can & Who Can't (6 Viewers)

thekidfromstrettoncamp

Well-Known Member
All the talk worrying about Ipswich after tonight they have only 5 at home and 8 away where their record is not the best even if they win tonight they will still be 8 points behind with 1 game in hand and inferior goal differncestill would have a fair bit to do from there
Millwall again only 5 home left good away record but 9 points behind and again bad goal difference.
Hull lose tonight they do have a good away record and think that might just see the end of any. chance of Title
IMO draw tonight which would make it even better for us .
Enjoy the ride.
 

Balli001

Well-Known Member
I have a feeling GD is going to be cruicial. And if teams below us claw back GD..then goals scored.

Its going to be that tight.

We need not to kid ourselves that this is done.

Im fed up of hearing that its done! Far from it.
Its not done but lets not pretend anyone is catching up our GD
 

itsabuzzard

Well-Known Member
Yep, around Christmas time there were loads on here eagerly spending the Premier League transfer budget, at the halfway point of the season! A month later it was all doom and gloom, and now it's back to assuming it's done and dusted again.

The reality is that although we are strong favourites to get over the line, there's stiil a lot of points needed and every game in this league is a battle.
All you get from sitting on the fence is skelfs.
 

edgy

Well-Known Member
I'm trying to create a visualisation of who can mathmatically/theoretically (not realistically!) get into the top 2. It's is very basic and only considers number of points available to each team in isolation. It obviously doesnt take into account where teams play each other etc - I can't think of a way to show this.

Blue = Could reach 1st
Green = Could reach 2nd
Red = Eliminated

View attachment 49600

Probably a bit early for it, but I will update after each set of games and it should start to get interesting.
1773051786205.png
 

Robinshio

Well-Known Member
We are already ok for play offs. Mathematically 3more wins will probably guarantee top 6. 18 points will probably get us the title and 14 for autos
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
If we can maintain this sort of points gap over third place, Portsmouth sounds about right.
We’re not promoted until it’s ‘mathematically’ clinched. Which means we’re not going to be promoted by Blackburn unless we got 13 points clear by that game. Which is unlikely imo.

If we win the next 3, which will be difficult, it keeps (at worst) 7-9 points clear of 3rd and with 7 remaining, you’re struggling to pick what 3-4 games we’d have to drop points from. Best case scenario, Ipswich/Boro drop points and we extend our position against them. Millwall play Ipswich then Boro back-to-back and that will be make or break for their season.
 

skybluecam

Well-Known Member
View attachment 49735
Based on Co-pilot's working we would be promoted by Portsmouth or Wrexham, feels a little late to me ?
Based on a simple projection of each team's ppg it would be at the end of the Portsmouth gameweek - we'd be on 90ish with Ipswich on 80 and Millwall 79, with a 7 point gap needed.

You have to open up a 10 or 13 point gap to clinch it earlier than then, which is quite an ask.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
Based on a simple projection of each team's ppg it would be at the end of the Portsmouth gameweek - we'd be on 90ish with Ipswich on 80 and Millwall 79, with a 7 point gap needed.

You have to open up a 10 or 13 point gap to clinch it earlier than then, which is quite an ask.
Beat PNE and Southampton and ‘it’s on’ imo. Both games are tough so maximum points is a big ask but two results that demonstrate our worthiness as Champions.
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Beat PNE and Southampton and ‘it’s on’ imo. Both games are tough so maximum points is a big ask but two results that demonstrate our worthiness as Champions.
Missing Rudoni and Thomas I’m less confident of that, but who knows. If we did that it’s as good as game set match.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
Missing Rudoni and Thomas I’m less confident of that, but who knows. If we did that it’s as good as game set match.
It will be tough, but definitely doable, Wolfenden and Kitching played well and it’s their opportunity to stake a claim.

Missing Rudoni whilst he’s at his best is a big loss. Eccles has filled in well, so I’ll back the team to find a way to win at home.

4 points is par so as long as we hit that, we’ll be in good nick.
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
It will be tough, but definitely doable, Wolfenden and Kitching played well and it’s their opportunity to stake a claim.

Missing Rudoni whilst he’s at his best is a big loss. Eccles has filled in well, so I’ll back the team to find a way to win at home.

4 points is par so as long as we hit that, we’ll be in good nick.
I’ve accepted that Ipswich will probably gain at least 2 points on us this week, but taken over last weekend too, it’d be another 3 games passed with the gap maintained.

Southampton impressed me a lot yesterday, certainly take a point if we can see off PNE.
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
I’ve accepted that Ipswich will probably gain at least 2 points on us this week, but taken over last weekend too, it’d be another 3 games passed with the gap maintained.

Southampton impressed me a lot yesterday, certainly take a point if we can see off PNE.
Southampton are a good outfit and out towards the top of the form table. We’re in a relatively good position where Southampton need to come to play for a win against us because they’re chasing the playoffs. I also felt that we had the beating of him at their place before the red card.

PNE at home, we need to be winning that and if we get those 3 points there, we can afford to not force a win v Southampton.

Our home form is just too good, we will hit near max points over the remaining 6.
 

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