Perhaps we're spending too much time looking at the number of wins and losses. It's the draws that have been the most reliably consistent factor. 20 of the 24 Championship teams this year have drawn almost exactly a quarter of their fixtures. There is no reason to suppose that that same ratio won't continue until the end of the season.
It means almost every team will draw at least two or three of their remaining games. That means nearly every team will drop about 5 points more than most people are expecting will be dropped. Our excellent goal difference should also mean that one less win than most are predicting should be enough for City to clinch automatic promotion this year. 85 points may well be enough. Three wins and two draws should do it.
I now think we may achieve this by the first week in April, with four or five games to spare!
What a great season it has been!
I prefer to see each game as a win or a loss and treat each draw as a bonus, especially so when it's two sides that are near the top and both need the win.
For instance we have several of these games coming up concerning two of the clubs in the top 6. I look at the damage a win for either side would do then treat a draw as a bonus.
In all reality it's 3 clubs going for the top spot which we are clearly favourites for and 6 clubs going for 2nd including ourselves. Most of the 6 clubs see us as getting 1st so in reality it's 5 clubs going for 2nd. Only Middlesbrough and Ipswich have a realistic chance of catching us, but they're looking more behind them than us at the top.
Draws? Ipswich v Middlesbrough for me, but we will no doubt have a preference on who wins by then.
