The run of 7 to christmas (10 Viewers)

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
WLDLDWW

What’s that? 11 points?
 

Robinshio

Well-Known Member
We’ve won 8 in 9 on the back of 10 points in 6. 1.8 points per game will put us in the autos or pretty damn close
Ipswich need 2.1
In fact every team needs to do at least 10per cent better than us to catch up
 

itsabuzzard

Well-Known Member
It's a generation since we fell out of the PL and this moment has been a long time coming. In the firm belief that whatever I say won't make the blindest bit of difference, and assuming Rudoni will be back in action, I'm going for an unbeaten run to Christmas. Maybe a bit over-optimistic to go for maximum points, so I'll chuck in a couple of draws.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
our expected stats have dipped quite sharply, I posted a graph the other day.

Since Sheff Weds we've only averaged around +0.2 xGD per game, previously it was over 1.

The second best xGD per game in the Championship last season was Burnley on +0.38 behind Leeds with +0.88.

The recent tail off coincides with Rudoni being missing and also Torp being in and out of the team a bit. While I don't think it was ever going to be likely to go through a season with >+1xGD per game I am hopeful that it'll improve back towards where it was.
 

skybluecam

Well-Known Member
The second best xGD per game in the Championship last season was Burnley on +0.38 behind Leeds with +0.88.

The recent tail off coincides with Rudoni being missing and also Torp being in and out of the team a bit. While I don't think it was ever going to be likely to go through a season with >+1xGD per game I am hopeful that it'll improve back towards where it was.
What’s that sourced from?

Fbref has Leeds on +1.30 and Burnley +0.41

xGD is by no means a perfect metric but I think it’s a decent indicator. Yes, I put it down to Rudoni being out, but he might not be fully fit for a while and it’s worrying that 1 player has that big of an impact.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
What’s that sourced from?

Fbref has Leeds on +1.30 and Burnley +0.41

xGD is by no means a perfect metric but I think it’s a decent indicator. Yes, I put it down to Rudoni being out, but he might not be fully fit for a while and it’s worrying that 1 player has that big of an impact.

FootyStats

I don't think it's all Rudoni, but like I said, I don't think the early season sample was necessarily likely to continue all season even if Rudoni had stayed fit. The automatically promoted teams are usually around the x0.50 level if even that high. Leeds' performance last year was an outlier.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
What’s that sourced from?

Fbref has Leeds on +1.30 and Burnley +0.41

xGD is by no means a perfect metric but I think it’s a decent indicator. Yes, I put it down to Rudoni being out, but he might not be fully fit for a while and it’s worrying that 1 player has that big of an impact.

He’s literally our only attacking mid. That’s what happens when you don’t have backup for key positions really.
 

skybluecam

Well-Known Member
FootyStats

I don't think it's all Rudoni, but like I said, I don't think the early season sample was necessarily likely to continue all season even if Rudoni had stayed fit. The automatically promoted teams are usually around the x0.50 level if even that high. Leeds' performance last year was an outlier.
I mean I’m not saying it’s a crisis, just I think performances need to improve a bit from our recent level. I’m confident they will once Rudoni is starting again but that could take a while, ideally we’d find another way of achieving it without him.
 

SkyBlueMatt

Well-Known Member
Any more than 10/11 points would be a great return. If 6 of those points could come against Boro and Ipswich, even better.

The run up to Christmas is a tough one but as long as we can keep ticking along we should be fine. I've been looking at our rivals run in and they have some tricky games too.

Up to the 26th:

Boro - Cov, Derby (going through a purple patch), Hull (great at home), Charlton & Bristol City (PO chasers - both away)
Stoke - Leicester, Ipswich, Watford (all away). Preston, Charlton, Hull (PO chasers)
Ipswich - Hull (great at home), Cov, Stoke (PO chasing), Leicester & Millwall (away)
Hull - Almost as tough as ours.
Leicester - Almost as tough as ours.
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
Ipswich got that big squad consistency.

We're currently more consistent than them though.
They're 2nd to us in the last 10 form table but drop to 9th in the last 6 table.
Obviously the big squad could be a factor as the season progresses.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
We're currently more consistent than them though.
They're 2nd to us in the last 10 form table but drop to 9th in the last 6 table.
Obviously the big squad could be a factor as the season progresses.

? They’re top two in 5/10/15 according to that table?
 

oneofourown

Well-Known Member
I have thought on more than one occasion we would possibly lose but the players have proved me wrong and collectively the players support each other and looka fter one another, so really anything is possible. I do not think this squad has the mentality of going on a losing streak. We lost to Wrexham and since we have bounced back so with that mentality getting between 46-50 points is doable.
 

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