Do you want to discuss boring politics? (19 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

That data is not accurate, it would have the average UK salary at £44k when the ONS says it is more like £37k

Employee earnings in the UK - Office for National Statistics

Measures of employee earnings, using data from the Annual Survey for Hours and Earnings (ASHE).

www.ons.gov.uk

However, even with that, average pay is not consistent across the UK so in many regions the average salary is likely to be lower still than £37k.

If you convert that UK salary into Euros you see that average wages in the UK are lower than all of the developed northern European countries, the monthly average would be €3545.

That average will also surely be distorted by the much higher pay in London won't it?

 

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[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

It’s odd when you look at average salaries as we are pretty competitive compared to Europe

Average salaries across Europe: Which countries have the highest pay?

Euronews takes a closer look at how average full-time adjusted salaries vary across Europe, both in nominal terms and in purchasing power standards.

www.euronews.com

Having lived in four different countries listed in that, I would say it is wildly inaccurate.

 

[fernandopartridge]

That average will also surely be distorted by the much higher pay in London won't it?

Most probably, I did mention that in my post. Though to a certain extent the cost of living is greater in some places rather than others to sit alongside the higher pay.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I do find it vaguely amusing that - as I always said - one of the key reasons the Freedom of Movement rules in the EU were established was so that the bigger countries could exploit the poorer ones by extracting their workers and exploiting their willingness to work for lower wages and poorer conditions

This is precisely happening in some of the newer EU members. Bulgaria's population is declining and is primarily driven by outwards migration to richer EU nations.

Poland is somewhat of an anomaly because it is on course to overtake the UK on a GDP per capita basis and is a high wage economy. Notably, it has been v restrictive on immigration and benefits from a growing manufacturing base, attractive to businesses because its low tax and relatively deregulated. A Polish lad I talk to at the gym has said a lot of his friends who came to UK have gone back to Poland because of the pay - their tax is 17% and do not have NI because their healthcare system is insurance-based.

It is a great irony that the broader mainstream 'left' has adopted pro-immigration stances and the de-regulation of the labour market. Thatcher and neoliberals (Reagan too) were initially v enthusiastic about the freedom of movement because they wanted to break the unions grip on the working class.

 

[rob9872]

That average will also surely be distorted by the much higher pay in London won't it?

It will, but don't other countries have areas that have higher wages and costs of living, most likely their capital cities too?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It will, but don't other countries have areas that have higher wages and costs of living, most likely their capital cities too?

They will, but I'm not convinced that they aren't as lopsided in distribution as the UK is.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

This is precisely happening in some of the newer EU members. Bulgaria's population is declining and is primarily driven by outwards migration to richer EU nations.

Poland is somewhat of an anomaly because it is on course to overtake the UK on a GDP per capita basis and is a high wage economy. Notably, it has been v restrictive on immigration and benefits from a growing manufacturing base, attractive to businesses because its low tax and relatively deregulated. A Polish lad I talk to at the gym has said a lot of his friends who came to UK have gone back to Poland because of the pay - their tax is 17% and do not have NI because their healthcare system is insurance-based.

It is a great irony that the broader mainstream 'left' has adopted pro-immigration stances and the de-regulation of the labour market. Thatcher and neoliberals (Reagan too) were initially v enthusiastic about the freedom of movement because they wanted to break the unions grip on the working class.

Give it time, we'll start moving to Poland and opening fish and chip shops

 

[rob9872]

Give it time, we'll start moving to Poland and opening fish and chip shops

Battered Carp and Gnocchi

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Battered Carp and Gnocchi

Never had you down as so health conscious buddy

 

[fernandopartridge]

This is precisely happening in some of the newer EU members. Bulgaria's population is declining and is primarily driven by outwards migration to richer EU nations.

Poland is somewhat of an anomaly because it is on course to overtake the UK on a GDP per capita basis and is a high wage economy. Notably, it has been v restrictive on immigration and benefits from a growing manufacturing base, attractive to businesses because its low tax and relatively deregulated. A Polish lad I talk to at the gym has said a lot of his friends who came to UK have gone back to Poland because of the pay - their tax is 17% and do not have NI because their healthcare system is insurance-based.

It is a great irony that the broader mainstream 'left' has adopted pro-immigration stances and the de-regulation of the labour market. Thatcher and neoliberals (Reagan too) were initially v enthusiastic about the freedom of movement because they wanted to break the unions grip on the working class.

Poland is an EU member, how can you say it is relatively deregulated compared to the UK?

 

[fernandopartridge]

One good thing about Poland is that it taxes capital gains significantly higher than it does income.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Poland is an EU member, how can you say it is relatively deregulated compared to the UK?

The UK adheres to a lot EU regulations, one of the big tasks in the transition period is removing all references to the EU/Commission and replacing with UK/His Majesty's Government. Hence the Tories (like Rees-Mogg) wanted to pass a bill that meant EU-era regulations automatically expired unless specifically kept on.

Anyway, see below in relation to Poland. As a whole, the 2004 expansion countries tend to be more deregulated than the established EU nations. Which is why you see a lot businesses start HQs in Bratislava, Prague and so on.

Poland on Track to Become Europe’s Deregulation Leader - The Chancellery of the Prime Minister - Gov.pl website

The economic shift announced during the event “Poland. A Year of Breakthrough” will require full government commitment. Before today’s Cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced further steps in the process of accelerating deregulation, including a meeting of a team led by...

www.gov.pl

The Polish case for less economic liberalism

Poland’s reputation for economic performance belies a deeper malaise.

www.politico.eu

 

[SBAndy]

and do not have NI because their healthcare system is insurance-based.

Lol.

 

[SBAndy]

It is out of control and again why I said it should have happened before but is now too late. I don't have a solution, but keep bringing in more people and propping it up definitely isnt one of them. It's unsustainable. I asked for solutions, it seems all we have is pay more money or keep bringing people in. Neither of those can we afford to do, so we need to be a bit more imaginative.

There are 2 routes to solve the issue really:

- hope that market forces results in more competition, bringing costs down and wages up.
- nationalise the care sector.

With both, the immediate issues are the startup cost involved, lack of availability of land in suitable areas and the fact we’re so far behind the demand curve that it’d take years and years to make a dent.

 

[CCFCSteve]

One good thing about Poland is that it taxes capital gains significantly higher than it does income.

Think they have lower rates on both capital and income than us. Just googled and it says capital gains is flat rate 19% ?

edit - not my specialist subject though, got to admit !

 

[fernandopartridge]

Lol.

PWC seems to suggest that it is national insurance and payable by both employer and employee:

Poland - Individual - Other taxes

Detailed description of other taxes impacting individuals in Poland

taxsummaries.pwc.com

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

There are 2 routes to solve the issue really:

- hope that market forces results in more competition, bringing costs down and wages up.
- nationalise the care sector.

With both, the immediate issues are the startup cost involved, lack of availability of land in suitable areas and the fact we’re so far behind the demand curve that it’d take years and years to make a dent.

Point 1 is not compatible with mass migration and point 2 costs a lot of money and stretches the NHS further. Given the waiting lists and record people going abroad and private for treatment, it's asking too much at this moment in time.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

PWC seems to suggest that it is national insurance and payable by both employer and employee:

Poland - Individual - Other taxes

Detailed description of other taxes impacting individuals in Poland

taxsummaries.pwc.com

The norm in European countries where insurance is socialised and cover guaranteed. UK NI is a de facto income tax. I've explained myself v poorly tbf.

Edit: to be specific, our NI goes to the UK coffers and is not ringfenced. In Europe, the money from their version of 'NIs' goes to a collective fund separate from government funding. Their governments do not tend to own the hospitals and healthcare workers are mostly not on government payroll.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Point 1 is not compatible with mass migration and point 2 costs a lot of money and stretches the NHS further. Given the waiting lists and record people going abroad and private for treatment, it's asking too much at this moment in time.

How does it stretch the NHS further? The social care sector being nationalised does not mean it is absorbed by the current NHS.

 

[fernandopartridge]

On the subject again of Poland, its budget deficit is 50% of its revenue. The UK deficit on the other hand is only a mere 5% of its revenue.

I'm glad you've finally agreed Mucca that deficit spending isn't a problem per se and can help to drive economic growth.

 

[Captain Dart]

That average will also surely be distorted by the much higher pay in London won't it?

Exactly what are they measuring neither the average or median or salary measurements are terribly accurate predictions of real wealth.

 

[SBT]

That data is not accurate, it would have the average UK salary at £44k when the ONS says it is more like £37k

Employee earnings in the UK - Office for National Statistics

Measures of employee earnings, using data from the Annual Survey for Hours and Earnings (ASHE).

www.ons.gov.uk

However, even with that, average pay is not consistent across the UK so in many regions the average salary is likely to be lower still than £37k.

If you convert that UK salary into Euros you see that average wages in the UK are lower than all of the developed northern European countries, the monthly average would be €3545.

The OECD has a dataset of average wages converted into dollars and adjusted for PPP which puts the UK a smidge above the OECD average, still comfortably behind many Western European/Scandinavian/North American countries.

https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/average-annual-wages.html

 

[Grendel]

The OECD has a dataset of average wages converted into dollars and adjusted for PPP which puts the UK a smidge above the OECD average, still comfortably behind many Western European/Scandinavian/North American countries.

https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/average-annual-wages.html

Pretty similar to many similar to us though in population and relative terms?

 

[wingy]

Inflation prediction at 3.5%and predicted to fall across next year,so I guess we'll all feel something, what that will be, well let's wait and see hey,as Rachel goes swanning around the middle east.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

On the subject again of Poland, its budget deficit is 50% of its revenue. The UK deficit on the other hand is only a mere 5% of its revenue.

I'm glad you've finally agreed Mucca that deficit spending isn't a problem per se and can help to drive economic growth.

Their debt to GDP ratio is 55%, the UK's is currently 96% - an increase of 15% in 10 years. Our budget deficit was ran up a lot higher when debt to GDP was 36.7% in 2000... So Poland really doesn't run the risk of a currency crisis, the UK actually does and France risks plunging the Euro into another Eurozone crisis.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Their debt to GDP ratio is 55%, the UK's is currently 96% - an increase of 15% in 10 years. Our budget deficit was ran up a lot higher when debt to GDP was 36.7% in 2000... So Poland really doesn't run the risk of a currency crisis, the UK actually does and France risks plunging the Euro into another Eurozone crisis.

The UK like Poland issues its own currency and will never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever face a debt crisis in any debt it has denominated in £.

France is different because it is a currency user.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

The UK like Poland issues its own currency and will never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever face a debt crisis in any debt it has denominated in £.

France is different because it is a currency user.

Didn't I say "currency crisis" rather than debt crisis?

Even so, when you issue government bonds and the interest you pay increases (happening right now), it stresses your public finances and can escalate to debt crisis.

Not going to get dragged into it because we both know the UK could not run up a 50% budget deficit without consequence without bad economic consequences. It really is a moot point.

 

[rob9872]

Didn't I say "currency crisis" rather than debt crisis?

Even so, when you issue government bonds and the interest you pay increases (happening right now), it stresses your public finances and can escalate to debt crisis.

Not going to get dragged into it because we both know the UK could not run up a 50% budget deficit without consequence without bad economic consequences. It really is a moot point.

That's why we don't listen to cows.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

It's nothing to do with paying care workers correctly, as I said it should have happened a generation ago before needing immigration to fill the gaps. At what rate do you think you'd now encourage people back into the industry bearing in mind minimum wage is now around £12.50 per hour?

Let's be flippant as an example and say its £20. What happens to all of the professions who are now earning less than £20 who jump ship? So they want a raise. Then their manager says well why I do more I want £25. The nurses get say I might as well work in care, so they get £20 and then the doctors say ok after all my training and for the responsibility I want more, so it goes right to the top. Oh hang on a minute, now care workers are still paid the least, but we've dragged the minimum wage up to £20 and how do we collect that, ah yes let's increase taxes. The business owner says now I have to pay my staff more and other costs have risen, so I need to put the price of the goods up so everything is more expensive. Can you see why this wouldn't work?

There is one pot of money however it's collected, there isn't enough to go round. What do you suggest?

But if they had done that a generation ago before needing immigration we'd have had hugely increasing governmental costs covering the care/health sectors and massive tax rises (or even higher borrowing and therefore interest) to pay for it.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Didn't I say "currency crisis" rather than debt crisis?

Even so, when you issue government bonds and the interest you pay increases (happening right now), it stresses your public finances and can escalate to debt crisis.

Not going to get dragged into it because we both know the UK could not run up a 50% budget deficit without consequence without bad economic consequences. It really is a moot point.

Polish government interest payments are a higher proportion of its annual national income than the UK's are.

 

[rob9872]

But if they had done that a generation ago before needing immigration we'd have had hugely increasing governmental costs covering the care/health sectors and massive tax rises (or even higher borrowing and therefore interest) to pay for it.

I cant argue as we can't go back, but unfortunately we now have that and still haven't solved the problem. At least that bit of pain back then might have now bore fruit.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Sorry - I still do not get it. The Councils would not have to have more administration costs at all?

Economies of scale. If all the schools are under one authority then some of those contracts and services can be shared across all schools. With academies every single school has to have their own set-up and cover the admin, so would be more expensive. Hence why a lot of those running academies now have academy chains as they argue it's more efficient.

And even though many of the academies are technically 'not for profit' they still take out large amounts to pay 'executives' which is their way of getting around it.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

I cant argue as we can't go back, but unfortunately we now have that and still haven't solved the problem. At least that bit of pain back then might have now bore fruit.

And that's what we've been arguing for god-knows how long regarding needing higher taxes and really looking at reversing the flow of money upwards. We have to take some pain and upheaval now or we just have to have even more later. Yet all we get told is that we're living in cloud cuckoo land and it's too hard.

Nice to see you're slowly coming round to that way of thinking.

 

[Grendel]

Economies of scale. If all the schools are under one authority then some of those contracts and services can be shared across all schools. With academies every single school has to have their own set-up and cover the admin, so would be more expensive. Hence why a lot of those running academies now have academy chains as they argue it's more efficient.

And even though many of the academies are technically 'not for profit' they still take out large amounts to pay 'executives' which is their way of getting around it.

The council just would get what Central funding is given - it’s not the private sector

 

[CCFCSteve]

Their debt to GDP ratio is 55%, the UK's is currently 96% - an increase of 15% in 10 years. Our budget deficit was ran up a lot higher when debt to GDP was 36.7% in 2000... So Poland really doesn't run the risk of a currency crisis, the UK actually does and France risks plunging the Euro into another Eurozone crisis.

Yeah, their budget deficit is forecast to be 6.9% (revised up from 5.5). Ours is around 5%. The difference appears to be driven by Polands defence spending which is 4.8% of gdp (ours is about half that)

Debt to gdp as you say is 55% increasing to 58% (far less debt than us and the older developed EU countries like France)

Not sure where in the thread the comparisons with the uk started but it’s not really an appropriate one, it’s half the size and is at a difference stage of development. France and Germany are the most obvious comparisons in terms of population, size of economy, stage of development etc. both struggling