Do you want to discuss boring politics? (24 Viewers)

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It’s not looking good for this government. The budget will be make or break for Starmer & Reeves.



Andy Burnham has set up a campaign group that is also backing Lucy Powell for deputy leader…

 

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[chiefdave]

It’s not looking good for this government. The budget will be make or break for Starmer & Reeves.



Andy Burnham has set up a campaign group that is also backing Lucy Powell for deputy leader…

I'm sure I see how a government with a term set to run until 2029 gets broken, what are you expecting to happen?

Absolute worse case scenario for Labour is a leadership election but even that seems fairly unlikely at the moment.

If the budget goes to absolute shit Starmer throws Reeves under the bus and draws a line under it.

We didn't get an election off the back of Truss' budget or any of the numerous changes of PM with the last government, why would it be different now?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It’s not looking good for this government. The budget will be make or break for Starmer & Reeves.



Andy Burnham has set up a campaign group that is also backing Lucy Powell for deputy leader…

It has the murmurings of a leadership challenge doesn't it.

 

[Nick]

Glad to see be the bubbly popping new world is going well.

 

[mmttww]

has the murmurings of a leadership challenge.

Is any of the chat that Burnham would run in it?

 

[Grendel]

I'm sure I see how a government with a term set to run until 2029 gets broken, what are you expecting to happen?

Absolute worse case scenario for Labour is a leadership election but even that seems fairly unlikely at the moment.

If the budget goes to absolute shit Starmer throws Reeves under the bus and draws a line under it.

We didn't get an election off the back of Truss' budget or any of the numerous changes of PM with the last government, why would it be different now?

There is definitely movement to remove Starmer

 

[Grendel]

Is any of the chat that Burnham would run in it?

How?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Is any of the chat that Burnham would run in it?

Well he clearly can't run in it, he's not an MP.

 

[shmmeee]

What do you do when there’s no money?

Well you don’t pay £300k a year to a private enterprise taking 22% profit!

 

[shmmeee]

It has the murmurings of a leadership challenge doesn't it.

There’s no route to Burnham as leader. What he’s playing at god knows but the man didn’t stand out next to Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall. There’s no potential leader and the membership wouldn’t take kindly to it.

 

[mmttww]

How?

Don't think it's law that he has to be an MP at the point of being elected leader but if he did - read up on it quickly and answers are inconsistent - just curious about what his angle is and what his involvement would be if he's stirring things behind the scenes.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

There’s no route to Burnham as leader. What he’s playing at god knows but the man didn’t stand out next to Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall. There’s no potential leader and the membership wouldn’t take kindly to it.

I'm not suggesting that, but the impression I get is of people getting their ducks in a row to get rid of a man and dim-witted accomplice who is completely tanking the party.

 

[shmmeee]

I'm not suggesting that, but the impression I get is of people getting their ducks in a row to get rid of a man and dim-witted accomplice who is completely tanking the party.

Just can’t see it happening. And appoint who exactly who is going to magically solve all the problems Starmer and Reeves are facing? Just seems like wishcasting on all sides. No one can even name a challenger.

 

[mmttww]

No one can even name a challenger.

Yeah, it's pretty slim pickings. All a bit grim.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Just can’t see it happening. And appoint who exactly who is going to magically solve all the problems Starmer and Reeves are facing? Just seems like wishcasting on all sides. No one can even name a challenger.

Maybe at least someone with more charisma and personal appeal.

 

[shmmeee]

Maybe at least someone with more charisma and personal appeal.

Oh well just grab one of the fifteen charismatic left wingers off the shelf.

What are the rules on getting Mamdani a seat?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Oh well just grab one of the fifteen charismatic left wingers off the shelf.

What are the rules on getting Mamdani a seat?

I mean we have loads of MPs to choose from. Is Starmer really the most able of them all?

 

[shmmeee]

Yeah, it's pretty slim pickings. All a bit grim.

When you’re going for two time loser Burnham as your great white hope you know you’re in trouble.

 

[shmmeee]

I mean we have loads of MPs to choose from. Is Starmer really the most able of them all?

Most of them have been there five minutes.

 

[shmmeee]

Think this is an excellent thread on Starmer and the problems with him. Bush is a brilliant Labour Kremlinologist IMO.

 

[duffer]

When you’re going for two time loser Burnham as your great white hope you know you’re in trouble.

Which is exactly where Starmer is. In very deep shit, much of which is of his own making. If his selling point was quiet competence and an end to scandal, he's fucked it properly, hasn't he.

Burnham, at least, has a hint of charisma, and might even take forward some of the vaguely left-ish policies which Starmer abandoned as soon he got the leadership of the party. If only he was the son of a toolmaker, eh.

In the next election, it's not going to be about getting rid of the Tories. So it might be an idea for Labour to find someone with a bit of passion who is actually willing take the fight to Reform.

 

[PVA]

 

[Sick Boy]

Wtf

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

lol what is that thing on the right wearing

 

[shmmeee]

Which is exactly where Starmer is. In very deep shit, much of which is of his own making. If his selling point was quiet competence and an end to scandal, he's fucked it properly, hasn't he.

Burnham, at least, has a hint of charisma, and might even take forward some of the vaguely left-ish policies which Starmer abandoned as soon he got the leadership of the party. If only he was the son of a toolmaker, eh.

In the next election, it's not going to be about getting rid of the Tories. So it might be an idea for Labour to find someone with a bit of passion who is actually willing take the fight to Reform.

There’s no viable route for Burnham. He’s the David Miliband of the Starmer years, the king across the water. And like the right during the Corbyn years there’s no one with a vision who can unite the membership.

Also Labour members really don’t like not giving leaders a chance. I think this is some clumsy opportunism but I can’t see a viable route to a serious challenge.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It has the murmurings of a leadership challenge doesn't it.

100% and Starmer would lose in the event of a challenge. He’s betrayed his mandate to the membership.

I'm sure I see how a government with a term set to run until 2029 gets broken, what are you expecting to happen?

Absolute worse case scenario for Labour is a leadership election but even that seems fairly unlikely at the moment.

If the budget goes to absolute shit Starmer throws Reeves under the bus and draws a line under it.

We didn't get an election off the back of Truss' budget or any of the numerous changes of PM with the last government, why would it be different now?

Plenty of unprecedented things happen. It’s certainly a worrying sign when the government is struggling to fill junior ministerial roles when there’s no shortage of MPs.

It could be the case that Starmer threatens to call a GE to keep a rebellion in line, for example, on cutting welfare which Starmer seems to want a second shot at. A loss of a key vote, such as a budget, would typically push a PM to call a GE (May didn’t tbf) but Boris did call a GE to get his agenda and Brexit deal through parliament. That may be something a new Labour PM would do, particularly if they got a bump in the polls.

The bottom line is that a government needs a mandate and the Johnson-Truss-Sunak years were all continuing the 2020 manifesto, so they said. With relation to Labour, they’ve passed most of their manifesto pledges and any new measures do not have a mandate. This is why they’re struggling to govern because their MPs on razor thin majorities won’t back anything unpopular. These MPs didn’t stand in a platform to cut welfare or government spending of any kind.

McSweeney and Reeves will be next, then Starmer will fall.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

100% and Starmer would lose in the event of a challenge. He’s betrayed his mandate to the membership.


Plenty of unprecedented things happen. It’s certainly a worrying sign when the government is struggling to fill junior ministerial roles when there’s no shortage of MPs.

It could be the case that Starmer threatens to call a GE to keep a rebellion in line, for example, on cutting welfare which Starmer seems to want a second shot at. A loss of a key vote, such as a budget, would typically push a PM to call a GE (May didn’t tbf) but Boris did call a GE to get his agenda and Brexit deal through parliament. That may be something a new Labour PM would do, particularly if they got a bump in the polls.

The bottom line is that a government needs a mandate and the Johnson-Truss-Sunak years were all continuing the 2020 manifesto, so they said. With relation to Labour, they’ve passed most of their manifesto pledges and any new measures do not have a mandate. This is why they’re struggling to govern because their MPs on razor thin majorities won’t back anything unpopular. These MPs didn’t stand in a platform to cut welfare or government spending of any kind.

McSweeney and Reeves will be next, then Starmer will fall.

Starmer hasn't got any leverage from what I can see. Not enough MPs are willing to join the sinking ship of his cabinet, and if he called an election he'd almost certainly lose.

His only way out of this is to start doing his fucking job properly.

 

[Sick Boy]

I don't think any challenge will happen until May at this point.

 

[Ian1779]

lol what is that thing on the right wearing

H&M Autumn Winter 2025 mate….. it’s a banger.

 

[duffer]

There’s no viable route for Burnham. He’s the David Miliband of the Starmer years, the king across the water. And like the right during the Corbyn years there’s no one with a vision who can unite the membership.

Also Labour members really don’t like not giving leaders a chance. I think this is some clumsy opportunism but I can’t see a viable route to a serious challenge.

That's a fair enough analysis mate, though I'd opine that the membership (perhaps as opposed to the PLP), would be very much behind a candidate who would shift back towards the left, if only a little.

Just as a hypothetical then, without sniping, could you see a situation like this playing out over the next few years...

Starmer's ratings continue to tank. Burnham decides to get into Parliament, via a by-election. The PLP, terrified now of an electoral wipeout and losing their own seats, mutiny and defenestrate Starmer.

In that case, what other candidates step up? Anyone in a senior position on the current cabinet is tainted by Starmer. Who's left?

At this point you'd have to think Labour's best chance of re-election might be to put forward a 'change' candidate with a obviously different approach to Starmer. Thoughts?

 

[shmmeee]

That's a fair enough analysis mate, though I'd opine that the membership (perhaps as opposed to the PLP), would be very much behind a candidate who would shift back towards the left, if only a little.

Just as a hypothetical then, without sniping, could you see a situation like this playing out over the next few years...

Starmer's ratings continue to tank. Burnham decides to get into Parliament, via a by-election. The PLP, terrified now of an electoral wipeout and losing their own seats, mutiny and defenestrate Starmer.

In that case, what other candidates step up? Anyone in a senior position on the current cabinet is tainted by Starmer. Who's left?

At this point you'd have to think Labour's best chance of re-election might be to put forward a 'change' candidate with a obviously different approach to Starmer. Thoughts?

I think a change now would mean calls for a GE and tie into chaos memes. I think he’s going to have to tough it out and change direction internally.

No amount of left wing thinking is going to make money appear. Burnham (who BTW is to the right of Brown!) is hanging it on fantasy wealth taxes that even if they worked wouldn’t touch the sides.

Someone’s going to have to raise taxes to fix the shit that’s been wrecked and the best time to do that is right now. Probably best case would be Starmer does that and in a year or two a magical British Mamdani appears who can provide charisma. Cos until then you’re looking at the likes of Wes Streeting FFS.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Starmer hasn't got any leverage from what I can see. Not enough MPs are willing to join the sinking ship of his cabinet, and if he called an election he'd almost certainly lose.

His only way out of this is to start doing his fucking job properly.

He’s in a doom loop and he’s in government but not in power. Whilst I don’t know how things will unfold, we’ll have a general election before 2028.

Clive Lewis said Starmer isn’t fit to do the job and that’s a view the vast majority of the electorate and political parties feel about him.

The issue with Labour’s disproportionate majority is that a) 66% of the electorate voted against them in the first place and b) there’s 100-200 MPs with slender majorities. Starmer/Labour were not that popular and the MPs are under pressure to oppose unpopular measures to save their skins. Streeting, Mahmood, Rayner and few other Labour top dogs are at serious risk of losing their seats (the former 2 to pro-Gaza independents, Rayner to Reform).

With Labour polling in 4th place in Wales and with the Senedd elections next… a wipe out in a region where Labour has always won would probably cause a major crisis for the government.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

H&M Autumn Winter 2025 mate….. it’s a banger.

Shows what kind of weirdo freaks some of them are

 

[mmttww]

Someone’s going to have to raise taxes to fix the shit that’s been wrecked and the best time to do that is right now. Probably best case would be Starmer does that and in a year or two a magical British Mamdani appears who can provide charisma. Cos until then you’re looking at the likes of Wes Streeting FFS.

Makes sense, it's gonna be a long week or two with the cabinet mess, Rayner and Mandelson fallout, low key mutiny stuff and the state visit(s). Interested to see where thing's stand after that.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I think a change now would mean calls for a GE and tie into chaos memes. I think he’s going to have to tough it out and change direction internally.

No amount of left wing thinking is going to make money appear. Burnham (who BTW is to the right of Brown!) is hanging it on fantasy wealth taxes that even if they worked wouldn’t touch the sides.

Someone’s going to have to raise taxes to fix the shit that’s been wrecked and the best time to do that is right now. Probably best case would be Starmer does that and in a year or two a magical British Mamdani appears who can provide charisma. Cos until then you’re looking at the likes of Wes Streeting FFS.

A Mamdani type would be ignored for being ‘hard left’ probably.