Do you want to discuss boring politics? (16 Viewers)

[shmmeee]

With respect, the pot is calling the kettle black.

Starmer and Reeves’ personal ratings and the overall polling of ‘is the country moving in the right direction’ tells a v different story. Starmer is more unpopular than Sunak after 1 year in the job. Sunak’s ratings were a record low and this was after 13 year of Tory rule and 4 PMs, including Truss whose premiership damaged the Tory’s polling beyond repair, which were in the toilet anyway.

I’ve spoken to friends who worked with MPs and the Tory-lot specifically did not see Reform as being an existential threat to them last year. Now the polls have Reform consistently above the Tories.



This is where we disagree. Immigration is the number 1 issue in this country that has fundamentally eroded trust in ‘the system’. Even under New Labour in the Blair/Brown years, concerns over immigration has been ignored when the economy was growing. It’s stalled and has exacerbated the feelings in the first place. Paul Embery touched on this, it’s v much a cultural issue because there are places up and down that no longer ‘feel’ English/British anymore.

Give the electorate what they want, which is lower immigration. Trust is restored and immigration ceases to be an issue. That was the case in 2019/20 when the Tories promised an Aussie points system and then loosened the definition of ‘high skilled’ workers to allow record numbers of immigration.



Then his MPs kick off, he U-turns and we’re back to square one…

This is exactly my point. Starmer beats Farage head to head on popularity. You’re claiming a four point lead three or four years from an election means a reform govt is likely. Please go read any polling history or understand anything about the voter groups in this country.

 

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[fernandopartridge]

By funding public services paid for by taxing the wealthy?

I don’t think anyone disagrees that elections are a judgement as to whether people’s lives have improved. I’m not sure having not done so 12 months into a five year term is too relevant.

People who have been anti Labour since before they’re elected please keep telling me how if you personally don’t stop being anti Labour then it’s over. It’s very funny.

Your bar is so low that just funding public services to a paltry level of provision is good enough for you.

Anyway, meanwhile whilst poor people are being made even poorer, we're falling into line exactly how Trump wanted

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Happy to disagree on that one. My belief remains that people have rightly noticed that they’re getting screwed over, but have been led astray in assigning blame and identifying solutions. I see the immigration issue as one of many symptoms that the country is in bad shape, not the cause.

Often a correlation between how voters feel financially (normally the main issue in any election) and issues like immigration. If they're doing well, economy is doing well etc then immigration slides down the list of priorities. The opposite then immigration rises in the list of priorities - something "simple" for voters to understand rather the complexities of the economy.
Support for Reform may be primarily down to dissatisfaction with the main parties and potential voters holding them responsible for the various messes but come a General election they are going to have to offer a lot more substance than they offer now if they think they want to win - they took the "easy" votes last year but will have to work a lot harder to get enough votes to even be the 2nd biggest party, let alone become a Govt.

Yes and mass immigration has coincided with flatlining of GDP per capita, longest period of stagnating living standards since the Napoleonic era, declining access and quality of public services.

Immigration has scored high up on people’s priorities since 2005 and because it hasn’t been addressed meaningfully, it’s an issue that’s gradually become more and more toxic, unfortunately.

 

[SBAndy]

The latest from Reform: public petitions if they feel prison sentences are too harsh or too lenient. Only require 500 signatures. Absolute ‘pants on your head’ stupid.

Also raises the question as to whether that is an efficient use of public resources.

 

[shmmeee]

Yes and mass immigration has coincided with

No it hasn’t. The timelines don’t match up at all. Stagnation mostly started post 2008.

 

[CCFCSteve]

No it hasn’t. The timelines don’t match up at all. Stagnation mostly started post 2008.

Both can be true. The great financial crisis no doubt caused productivity issues/stagflation from 2008 but population growth since 2010 is also up 10%+ which would also negatively impact GDP per capita (especially if it’s the wrong type of population growth)

So you had a squeeze on spending following the financial crisis during a period of rapid population growth, throw in Covid and to different extents Brexit and Ukraine war and it’s no surprise as a country we’re creaking

 

[shmmeee]

Both can be true. The great financial crisis no doubt caused productivity issues/stagflation from 2008 but population growth since 2010 is also up 10%+ which would also negatively impact GDP per capita (especially if it’s the wrong type of population growth)

So you had a squeeze on spending following the financial crisis during a period of rapid population growth, throw in Covid and to different extents Brexit and Ukraine war and it’s no surprise as a country we’re creaking

Almost like austerity during a major recession was a really bad idea.

The rate of change has been pretty constant.



And doesn’t seem to correlate at all with GDP per capita:



I know the new woke is everything must be foreigners fault but I just don’t see the correlation in the data. Post Brexit immigrants are definitely lower skilled, but not sure how you can tease that out from general post Brexit economy shitness.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Almost like austerity during a major recession was a really bad idea.

The rate of change has been pretty constant.

View attachment 43894

And doesn’t seem to correlate at all with GDP per capita:

View attachment 43895

I know the new woke is everything must be foreigners fault but I just don’t see the correlation in the data. Post Brexit immigrants are definitely lower skilled, but not sure how you can tease that out from general post Brexit economy shitness.

Im not ‘everything’s foreigners fault’, never have been, never will be. But to not recognise that uncontrolled, unplanned population growth doesn’t cause major issues is also wrong in my book

edit - in terms of the data it’s impossible to tell what impact individuals elements have had. Whats the 0.8% annual change figure ?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Im not ‘everything’s foreigners fault’, never have been, never will be. But to not recognise that uncontrolled, unplanned population growth doesn’t cause major issues is also wrong in my book

edit - in terms of the data it’s impossible to tell what impact individuals elements have had. Whats the 0.8% annual change figure ?

We are having fewer children, putting less effort into education and training, refusing to improve wages and working conditions, then wondering why we need so much immigration to do jobs that keep the country functioning.

It really doesn’t need to be like this.

 

[Nick]

We are having fewer children, putting less effort into education and training, refusing to improve wages and working conditions, then wondering why we need so much immigration to do jobs that keep the country functioning.

It really doesn’t need to be like this.

Again, fewer children because of the cost of bringing up a child properly. (Well, the people who don't expect others to pay for their kids).

 

[Grendel]

Just driving into work and they have politicians on the Nicky Campbell show on Wednesday

Labour MP says of Zara Sultana "its about time these lefty types woke up from the fantasy world they live in"

Brilliant

 

[chiefdave]

We are having fewer children, putting less effort into education and training, refusing to improve wages and working conditions, then wondering why we need so much immigration to do jobs that keep the country functioning.

It really doesn’t need to be like this.

You only have to look at the former party leaders and PMs who were talking heads on the recent BBC documentary.

With the exception of Cameron, they all, going back to when it was decided to shout 'immigrants are bad' because there were fears of the BNP gaining popularity, said that while in public they would talk about a need to reduce immigration and make promises of what they would bring immigration down to in private they had no intention of doing so.

Every department would be lobbying for exemptions because they knew they'd be fucked without immigrants and that would trigger a huge negative impact on the countries economy.

We need to resolve that issue first otherwise we're just shooting ourselves in the foot. Look at the care industry when restricted visas. Whole system was on the verge of collapse.

Problem is if, in any sector, there's talk of improving pay and conditions the same people that shout stop the boats start shouting about inflation and the economy collapsing.

 

[CCFCSteve]

We are having fewer children, putting less effort into education and training, refusing to improve wages and working conditions, then wondering why we need so much immigration to do jobs that keep the country functioning.

It really doesn’t need to be like this.

Unfortunately some of the issues you raise are directly related to loose immigration policy over the last decade or two. You don’t need to improve wages and conditions if you’ve got cheap migrant labour willing to do the jobs for less. You don’t need to train/upskill available employees or unemployed when you can easily import those in. You don’t need to invest in better more efficient equipment if you can just get cheaper labour to do the jobs manually

I agree, it doesnt have to be like this but it needs/needed some thought and long term planning in terms of education, training and infrastructure which has been sadly lacking

 

[Grendel]

Sultana surely has to be completely banned by Labour now

MPs turn on Zarah Sultana who declares ‘we are all Palestine Action’ - The Jewish Chronicle

Parliamentarians expressed shock over the suspended Labour MP’s comments

www.thejc.com

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Again, fewer children because of the cost of bringing up a child properly. (Well, the people who don't expect others to pay for their kids).

Yes, as we are imminently about to experience.

 

[SBAndy]

Yes, as we are imminently about to experience.

The good news if it helps: the ‘running cost’ for the first 6 months or so is cheap as chips.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Unfortunately some of the issues you raise are directly related to loose immigration policy over the last decade or two. You don’t need to improve wages and conditions if you’ve got cheap migrant labour willing to do the jobs for less. You don’t need to train/upskill available employees or unemployed when you can easily import those in. You don’t need to invest in better more efficient equipment if you can just get cheaper labour to do the jobs manually

I agree, it doesnt have to be like this but it needs/needed some thought and long term planning in terms of education, training and infrastructure which has been sadly lacking

The issue with your last sentence is that anyone calling for substantial investment in education and training gets called ‘hard left’ or told ‘there’s no money’. Clearly there is, and it’s a political choice on how it is spent.

Too many people cannot see past the immediate up front cost of such things and do not see that we end up with different and bigger problems later on.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The good news if it helps: the ‘running cost’ for the first 6 months or so is cheap as chips.

We will manage for the first 3, it then gets interesting when the wife drops onto SMP.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Just driving into work and they have politicians on the Nicky Campbell show on Wednesday

Labour MP says of Zara Sultana "its about time these lefty types woke up from the fantasy world they live in"

Brilliant

 

[Grendel]

I do not know who the MP was but he was like Norman Tebbit.

"It not respectful to disabled people to pay them benefits as it suggests they cannot work"

 

[shmmeee]

Im not ‘everything’s foreigners fault’, never have been, never will be. But to not recognise that uncontrolled, unplanned population growth doesn’t cause major issues is also wrong in my book

edit - in terms of the data it’s impossible to tell what impact individuals elements have had. Whats the 0.8% annual change figure ?

I agree. I think who we have let in and the pace and lack of effort on integration has been wrong. But I don’t think that means literally every ill is caused by immigration.

There’s some evidence that non EU immigration is of a different profile to EU immigration in terms of impact on GDP. But on a macro scale the two just don’t tally. We had massive growth in GDP per capita in the early 2000s when we first started freaking out about immigration from EE. We’ve had peaks and troughs without corresponding ones in immigration. If it does have an effect clearly it’s dwarfed by other factors (lack of infrastructure and investment in automation would be my guess, which has been the case for most of the post war period).

The 0.8% is just the latest figure. The shape of the chart overall is what I’m pointing to. The Boris wave didn’t seem to have any noticeable downward impact (perhaps because we got lots of high value HKers).

If you’re concerned about GDP per capita for me you look at post 2008 response because that’s where the inflection point is compared to other economies including ones with high immigration.

 

[CCFCSteve]

The issue with your last sentence is that anyone calling for substantial investment in education and training gets called ‘hard left’ or told ‘there’s no money’. Clearly there is, and it’s a political choice on how it is spent.

Too many people cannot see past the immediate up front cost of such things and do not see that we end up with different and bigger problems later on.

Dont disagree with some of that, I’m a big advocate of investment to try to generate growth/improve lives for the public but this is the real world and unfortunately the further you go on both sides, they just don’t get it

On the right, a lack of understanding of the need for a certain level of migration and taxation to deliver good quality public services and a fully functioning economy

On the left, the lack of appreciation of supply and demand on employment, public services etc and where funding comes from. Then when there is an uptick in funding, like with the NHS, rather than support investment and an increase in capacity you have the BMA threatening strikes for more cash

We’re an developed/mature economy, with an aging demographic, in a global world and unless there is an uplift in growth and productivity, people need to start getting real

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Dont disagree with some of that, I’m a big advocate of investment to try to generate growth/improve lives for the public but this is the real world and unfortunately the further you go on both sides, they just don’t get it

On the right, a lack of understanding of the need for a certain level of migration and taxation to deliver good quality public services and a fully functioning economy

On the left, the lack of appreciation of supply and demand on employment, public services etc and where funding comes from. Then when there is an uptick in funding, like with the NHS, rather than support investment and an increase in capacity you have the BMA threatening strikes for more cash

We’re an developed/mature economy, with an aging demographic, in a global world and unless there is an uplift in growth and productivity, people need to start getting real

This again comes back to the problems with birth rate in this country and how little we’re doing to try to mitigate that.

 

[CCFCSteve]

This again comes back to the problems with birth rate in this country and how little we’re doing to try to mitigate that.

It’s a big problem and a massive catch 22 as discussed. Unfortunately even if you deal with the demographic issue, we’re still a mature/developed economy struggling to find ways of generating growth. We’re not the only ones, even recent US exceptional growth has been pretty much generated solely by a world beating tech sector and $100s billions of borrowed/printed public spending.

ps I don’t want to sound so negative, I’m a generally optimistic person, I just think there needs to be a bit of a realism check

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

This again comes back to the problems with birth rate in this country and how little we’re doing to try to mitigate that.

A short term fix resulting in a perpetual long term problem.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Unfortunately some of the issues you raise are directly related to loose immigration policy over the last decade or two. You don’t need to improve wages and conditions if you’ve got cheap migrant labour willing to do the jobs for less. You don’t need to train/upskill available employees or unemployed when you can easily import those in. You don’t need to invest in better more efficient equipment if you can just get cheaper labour to do the jobs manually

I agree, it doesnt have to be like this but it needs/needed some thought and long term planning in terms of education, training and infrastructure which has been sadly lacking

But that loose immigration has been because companies want and have asked for cheaper workers and less rights. Same with stuff like Uber - cutting wages and rights for delivery and taxi drivers.

As soon as anyone talks about getting native people to do it and the need to up wages it's instantly "but what about inflation!? It'll ruin the economy!" And then say it's all the workers' fault because they won't work for the same shit wages and conditions that migrants do.

It is truly amazing how the people that actually cause the problems manage to convince so many people that they don't.

 

[Grendel]

But that loose immigration has been because companies want and have asked for cheaper workers and less rights. Same with stuff like Uber - cutting wages and rights for delivery and taxi drivers.

As soon as anyone talks about getting native people to do it and the need to up wages it's instantly "but what about inflation!? It'll ruin the economy!" And then say it's all the workers' fault because they won't work for the same shit wages and conditions that migrants do.

It is truly amazing how the people that actually cause the problems manage to convince so many people that they don't.

If there are not people wanting low wages it wouldn’t be driven down. I’m not that convinced in many sectors it is low anyway but where it is why would employers not take labour forces that will happily take low wages.

 

[Captain Dart]

This again comes back to the problems with birth rate in this country and how little we’re doing to try to mitigate that.

Every European country has birthrates below that needed to sustain population..

 

[CCFCSteve]

But that loose immigration has been because companies want and have asked for cheaper workers and less rights. Same with stuff like Uber - cutting wages and rights for delivery and taxi drivers.

As soon as anyone talks about getting native people to do it and the need to up wages it's instantly "but what about inflation!? It'll ruin the economy!" And then say it's all the workers' fault because they won't work for the same shit wages and conditions that migrants do.

It is truly amazing how the people that actually cause the problems manage to convince so many people that they don't.

The loose immigration policy was started by the Blair government and has continued since. Of course companies wanted it, why do you think most big business wanted to remain in the EU ? Supply of cheap labour with limited/no restrictions. But this has been successive governments decisions not companies. You’ve also got to remember that one of the largest employers of migrant labour is likely to be the public sector via nhs and social care (majority funded by government/council).

I’ve said numerous times there needed to be an honest conversation with the public about the pros and cons of a loose(r) migration policy. There never was which is why we got Brexit and why there is now the rise of Reform. A lot on the left have pushed for it but then don’t seem to want to accept some of the negatives that come with it. Same as some on the right won’t acknowledge some of the benefits

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

The loose immigration policy was started by the Blair government and has continued since. Of course companies wanted it, why do you think most big business wanted to remain in the EU ? Supply of cheap labour with limited/no restrictions. But this has been successive governments decisions not companies. You’ve also got to remember that one of the largest employers of migrant labour is likely to be the public sector via nhs and social care (majority funded by government/council).

I’ve said numerous times there needed to be an honest conversation with the public about the pros and cons of a loose(r) migration policy. There never was which is why we got Brexit and why there is now the rise of Reform. A lot on the left have pushed for it but then don’t seem to want to accept some of the negatives that come with it. Same as some on the right won’t acknowledge some of the benefits

But those successive government decisions have been made after heavy influencing by lobbying and donations from the business sector, be it companies, industries or individuals. Given that different political parties in power (though arguably all to the right of centre to some degree) have done this it maybe not who publicly makes the decision but who privately is pushing for it.

As for the honest conversation, Brexit showed that's not possible. Talk about the negatives and people will hook onto it. and say "look I'm right" Talk about the positives and you're just not listening to them. As far as too many people are concerned the 'honest' conversation is "immigrants are bad"

 

[CCFCSteve]

But those successive government decisions have been made after heavy influencing by lobbying and donations from the business sector, be it companies, industries or individuals. Given that different political parties in power (though arguably all to the right of centre to some degree) have done this it maybe not who publicly makes the decision but who privately is pushing for it.

As for the honest conversation, Brexit showed that's not possible. Talk about the negatives and people will hook onto it. and say "look I'm right" Talk about the positives and you're just not listening to them. As far as too many people are concerned the 'honest' conversation is "immigrants are bad"

Brown wasn’t right of centre FFS. I’ll say it again, for whatever reason, and there are many including plenty of positives, successive governments have decided to have a looser migration policy. I’ll also say again, most on the left wanted this without appearing to consider and/or acknowledge some of the negatives that come with it

 

[tisza]

I’ve said numerous times there needed to be an honest conversation with the public about the pros and cons of a loose(r) migration policy.

Politicians don't want a detailed conversation because then they'd have to detail the economics of it and they can't properly provide definitive answers past short-term results. Migration into a stagant economy is completely different to migration into a growth economy.
It's like the green energy debate. If we have cheaper energy what significant employment areas /income will it generate if the rest of Europe is doing the same thing on energy prices? Plenty of talk about short-term employment for infrastrucutre building etc but not so much detail and where the new employment/growth etc comes after that (outside of specialist skilled employment) .

 

[tisza]

This again comes back to the problems with birth rate in this country and how little we’re doing to try to mitigate that.

Much depends on the weighting given to the different causes of a low birth rate - not just the economic but the social as well.
You can address the economic easier than you can the social.

 

[shmmeee]

Politicians don't want a detailed conversation because then they'd have to detail the economics of it and they can't properly provide definitive answers past short-term results. Migration into a stagant economy is completely different to migration into a growth economy.
It's like the green energy debate. If we have cheaper energy what significant employment areas /income will it generate if the rest of Europe is doing the same thing on energy prices? Plenty of talk about short-term employment for infrastrucutre building etc but not so much detail and where the new employment/growth etc comes after that (outside of specialist skilled employment) .

Your plan for cheap energy is to ignore the cheapest methods?

 

[Captain Dart]

Your plan for cheap energy is to ignore the cheapest methods?

That's Miliband's strategy.