General Election 2019 thread (3 Viewers)

[richnrg]

For those suggesting yesterday is the beginning of Scottish independence worth noting the SNP share of the vote was still the same % as that voted to leave in the 2014 referendum - 45%.

and how do SNP expect to be given chance for referendum in next 5 years?
i.e.
Sturgeon: Please sir, can we have a referendum?
Johnson: No
The end

 

---

[chiefdave]

and how do SNP expect to be given chance for referendum in next 5 years?
i.e.
Sturgeon: Please sir, can we have a referendum?
Johnson: No
The end

That's a dangerous game though isn't it? If the 'will of the people' is a referendum and Johnson keeps refusing are they just going to say OK and forget about it?

 

[Monners]

Hay Ho
Soon be Christmas

 

[Liquid Gold]

I agree - But others I couldn’t see that working

and maybe N Ireland ?

I don't think NI. Now Johnson can do what he wants I think we might see a Brexit deal that doesn't cut us off even if it isn't what the ERG want.

 

[richnrg]

That's a dangerous game though isn't it? If the 'will of the people' is a referendum and Johnson keeps refusing are they just going to say OK and forget about it?

the consequences being? (in reality)

 

[Liquid Gold]

and how do SNP expect to be given chance for referendum in next 5 years?
i.e.
Sturgeon: Please sir, can we have a referendum?
Johnson: No
The end

Look at Catalonia and the problems with not acquiescing to a democratic mandate (and the mess that has been the UK for 3 and a half years). If he rejects it it will fit into their 'being ruled against our will' narrative and make the event more likely in future.

 

[Houchens Head]

Is it over yet?

 

[richnrg]

Look at Catalonia and the problems with not acquiescing to a democratic mandate (and the mess that has been the UK for 3 and a half years). If he rejects it it will fit into their 'being ruled against our will' narrative and make the event more likely in future.

yes, but in reality, can you see Johnson gambling the Union in this way. I can't. He'll have to come up with some sort of solution, I agree, but why would he ever choose that one?

 

[Otis]

I haven't read anything since early yesterday evening, so sorry if posters have already said the same thing.

Seems obvious that Boris got in because people just didn't see Corbyn as a prime minister, rather than because of Boris or the Conservatives.

Just listened to 5Live and a piece about a staunchly fierce Labour constituency that turned blue. The locals there were saying that Labour could have put a monkey up as a candidate and Labour would have won, but that they felt they just could not vote for Corbyn.

Obvious that Corbyn was a vote loser for Labour, just as Swinson was a vote loser for the Lib Dems.

What also now seems very obvious, is that Labour, as long as they get someone half decent at the helm, will surely win the next election. People are fickle and all analysis says that things will initially be tough under Brexit and that prosperity is somewhere further down the line.

You just watch now as many who voted Leave, start getting on the back on the government and blaming them when they start to struggle.

Whether you are a Brexiteer or not, this is a long term plan to make 'Britain great again' and be 'in control.'

As I say, people can be incredibly fickle.

It was clear Corbyn could not win and he should have stood aside earlier.

Labour have to move more to the centre, whether we are firm socialists or not. Times have changed and the political climate has changed.

I am really not sure that the likes of a Corbynite can ever get into power again. Or am I just being naïve?

 

[richnrg]

The locals there were saying that Labour could have put a monkey up as a candidate and Labour would have won..

but instead they chose an ass

 

[ajsccfc]

Is it over yet?

 

[tisza]

Look at Catalonia and the problems with not acquiescing to a democratic mandate (and the mess that has been the UK for 3 and a half years). If he rejects it it will fit into their 'being ruled against our will' narrative and make the event more likely in future.

Answer will remain the same. Is there a mandate for Indyref2 when less than 50% voted for SNP who ran mainly on this issue? Sturgeon admitted that not all SNP voters would necessarily support independence but were EU remainers.
Issue would be far more difficult in that would remain-EU sentiment ultimately triumph over the deeper personal links with the rest of the UK?
EU could offer little encouragement because of the Catalan issue but also many EU states would see that level of interference in domestic policies as unacceptable for their own reasons.

 

[skybluegod]

I haven't read anything since early yesterday evening, so sorry if posters have already said the same thing.

Seems obvious that Boris got in because people just didn't see Corbyn as a prime minister, rather than because of Boris or the Conservatives.

Just listened to 5Live and a piece about a staunchly fierce Labour constituency that turned blue. The locals there were saying that Labour could have put a monkey up as a candidate and Labour would have won, but that they felt they just could not vote for Corbyn.

Obvious that Corbyn was a vote loser for Labour, just as Swinson was a vote loser for the Lib Dems.

What also now seems very obvious, is that Labour, as long as they get someone half decent at the helm, will surely win the next election. People are fickle and all analysis says that things will initially be tough under Brexit and that prosperity is somewhere further down the line.

You just watch now as many who voted Leave, start getting on the back on the government and blaming them when they start to struggle.

Whether you are a Brexiteer or not, this is a long term plan to make 'Britain great again' and be 'in control.'

As I say, people can be incredibly fickle.

It was clear Corbyn could not win and he should have stood aside earlier.

Labour have to move more to the centre, whether we are firm socialists or not. Times have changed and the political climate has changed.

I am really not sure that the likes of a Corbynite can ever get into power again. Or am I just being naïve?

I don't think you can call Labour winning the next election until we see who it is. It also depends on how well the Tories do. People are very certain they wil lfail but they may surprise us and strengthen their hold.

The reason the likes of Corbyn can't get into power is because it doesn't work. It really is that simple. People need to get out of this idea that Labour need to move to the centre. Why does it have to be Labour, people are so set in this two party system that there are people who will vote Labour no matter which part of the scale they land on. If you are a centralist go for a more centralist party, or an independent who matches your views.

Admittedly this was a special case election, but the system as it is in general does not work it is a cycle, with the same shit constantly reoccurring.

 

[Otis]

I don't think you can call Labour winning the next election until we see who it is. It also depends on how well the Tories do. People are very certain they wil lfail but they may surprise us and strengthen their hold.

The reason the likes of Corbyn can't get into power is because it doesn't work. It really is that simple. People need to get out of this idea that Labour need to move to the centre. Why does it have to be Labour, people are so set in this two party system that there are people who will vote Labour no matter which part of the scale they land on. If you are a centralist go for a more centralist party, or an independent who matches your views.

Admittedly this was a special case election, but the system as it is in general does not work it is a cycle, with the same shit constantly reoccurring.

I am not certain THEY will fail, but at first Brexit will. Everyone knows it is going take years before any true benefit is seen.

The general public is not patient. If the Tories fail it will partly be because Brexit is failing

 

[Grendel]

That's a dangerous game though isn't it? If the 'will of the people' is a referendum and Johnson keeps refusing are they just going to say OK and forget about it?

He can but can lay out clear terms - no pound once granted, WTO terms and no deal

 

[Grendel]

I am not certain THEY will fail, but at first Brexit will. Everyone knows it is going take years before any true benefit is seen.

The general public is not patient. If the Tories fail it will partly be because Brexit is failing

It won’t make any difference labour are finished

 

[Otis]

I don't think you can call Labour winning the next election until we see who it is. It also depends on how well the Tories do. People are very certain they wil lfail but they may surprise us and strengthen their hold.

The reason the likes of Corbyn can't get into power is because it doesn't work. It really is that simple. People need to get out of this idea that Labour need to move to the centre. Why does it have to be Labour, people are so set in this two party system that there are people who will vote Labour no matter which part of the scale they land on. If you are a centralist go for a more centralist party, or an independent who matches your views.

Admittedly this was a special case election, but the system as it is in general does not work it is a cycle, with the same shit constantly reoccurring.

I am sick to death of the two party system. And for what it's worth, I don't consider myself a Labour supporter. I would say in the last 10 years I hae voted Green, Lib Dem and Labour and even Independent.

I am not a true Labourite at all.

 

[Otis]

It won’t make any difference labour are finished

Was thinking the same to be honest. You think a splinter party or two will now form from out of the Labour Party?

It's too broad a church at the moment I feel.

 

[richnrg]

I am sick to death of the two party system. And for what it's worth, I don't consider myself a Labour supporter. I would say in the last 10 years I hae voted Green, Lib Dem and Labour and even Independent.

I am not a true Labourite at all.

you are Chuka Ummuna, and I claim my £5

 

[Otis]

you are Chuka Ummuna, and I claim my £5

No, at the moment I am more Chuka Thetowelin.

 

[lifeskyblue]

Answer will remain the same. Is there a mandate for Indyref2 when less than 50% voted for SNP who ran mainly on this issue? Sturgeon admitted that not all SNP voters would necessarily support independence but were EU remainers.
Issue would be far more difficult in that would remain-EU sentiment ultimately triumph over the deeper personal links with the rest of the UK?
EU could offer little encouragement because of the Catalan issue but also many EU states would see that level of interference in domestic policies as unacceptable for their own reasons.

As the impact of brexit takes effect we may see a shift in the numbers at the next Scottish Parliamentary Elections. If it’s a car crash then independence numbers will rise. If it’s handled well and brings some dividend to Scotland then numbers calling for it are likely to fall


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[tisza]

I am not certain THEY will fail, but at first Brexit will. Everyone knows it is going take years before any true benefit is seen.

The general public is not patient. If the Tories fail it will partly be because Brexit is failing

Not sure this is true. Define true benefit? We will probably have 3 years of a Brexit Britain (after this 2 year leave period) before the next election to gauge its effects.
One nation politics will define the next GE as much as Brexit outcomes.

 

[chiefdave]

What also now seems very obvious, is that Labour, as long as they get someone half decent at the helm, will surely win the next election. People are fickle and all analysis says that things will initially be tough under Brexit and that prosperity is somewhere further down the line.

I'm not convinced that whoever Labour elect as their next leader won't get the same treatment unless they abandon the left again to go for the Blair type option. Won't be on the same issues of course but they will find a stick of some sort and use it.

 

[Grendel]

Was thinking the same to be honest. You think a splinter party or two will now form from out of the Labour Party?

It's too broad a church at the moment I feel.

It’s more the maths. They are 170 seats behind and seem to have completely lost support in Scotland

 

[Otis]

Not sure this is true. Define true benefit? We will probably have 3 years of a Brexit Britain (after this 2 year leave period) before the next election to gauge its effects.
One nation politics will define the next GE as much as Brexit outcomes.

Aren't all the studies saying it will have a negative impact initially? That's what I mean by 'true benefit', that's of course if there is one at all.

The plan is a temporary backwards step in order to then go forwards in the future isn't it?

 

[Otis]

It’s more the maths. They are 170 seats behind and seem to have completely lost support in Scotland

Might not have to worry about Scotland for too much longer. Time will tell I guess.

 

[Grendel]

Aren't all the studies saying it will have a negative impact initially? That's what I mean by 'true benefit', that's of course if there is one.

The plan is a temporary backwards step in order to then go forwards in the future isn't it?

No the government are planning to borrow and the deal struck will allow free trade anyway

 

[lifeskyblue]

Was thinking the same to be honest. You think a splinter party or two will now form from out of the Labour Party?

It's too broad a church at the moment I feel.

It’s not so long ago people were saying the Tories would split and that would be the end of them. But a minor purge in parliament appears to have made them stronger (for now)
Kinnocks purge of the more extreme labour views followed by Smith and Blair’s reforms gave labour over a decade of success.

There will be change, there will be some breakaways but I wouldn’t write the Labour Party off just yet. They will reform...try and build/extend party at local elections...eat in to Johnson’s majority in 2024 and then possibly win in 10yrs time.

Assuming Scotland stays in uk. If not then tories in for a very long time...


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[Grendel]

It’s not so long ago people were saying the Tories would split and that would be the end of them. But a minor purge in parliament appears to have made them stronger (for now)
Kinnocks purge of the more extreme labour views followed by Smith and Blair’s reforms gave labour over a decade of success.

There will be change, there will be some breakaways but I wouldn’t write the Labour Party off just yet. They will reform...try and build/extend party at local elections...eat in to Johnson’s majority in 2024 and then possibly win in 10yrs time.


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They used to dominate Scotland now they are a London centric party

 

[tisza]

Aren't all the studies saying it will have a negative impact initially? That's what I mean by 'true benefit', that's of course if there is one at all.

The plan is a temporary backwards step in order to then go forwards in the future isn't it?

so you're judging the whole process as a purely economic one?

 

[NorthernWisdom]

yes, but in reality, can you see Johnson gambling the Union in this way. I can't. He'll have to come up with some sort of solution, I agree, but why would he ever choose that one?

Get the right conditions, put it to a vote, win the vote, quash any noise going forward.

Answer will remain the same. Is there a mandate for Indyref2 when less than 50% voted for SNP who ran mainly on this issue? Sturgeon admitted that not all SNP voters would necessarily support independence but were EU remainers.
Issue would be far more difficult in that would remain-EU sentiment ultimately triumph over the deeper personal links with the rest of the UK?
EU could offer little encouragement because of the Catalan issue but also many EU states would see that level of interference in domestic policies as unacceptable for their own reasons.

You could argue then that if you're right, now is the time to have that vote, put it completely to bed, and stop it coming up like some hideous wart every so often.

 

[Otis]

so you're judging the whole process as a purely economic one?

Not at all.

 

[lifeskyblue]

They used to dominate Scotland now they are a London centric party

Yes that is a problem...I amended my original post with that caveat.
If Scotland does leave uk and tories in almost unchallenged for a couple more decades it will put pressure on both ‘extremes’ of the tories to follow divergent agendas





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[Otis]

Any chance now that Labour could advocate PR?

I have always been for it and obviously many of the smaller parties are too. If they don't think they can get in, not for many years, might they just start to embrace that somewhat?

 

[fernandopartridge]

I'm making my final contribution to this thread, and I think it's the first thing I've said that might be consensual:

James O'Brien is an utter wanker