Yeah, but it's often used to predict the end of season table and it doesn't account for relative difficulty of opposition. More a caveat than a criticism
Yeah, but it's often used to predict the end of season table and it doesn't account for relative difficulty of opposition. More a caveat than a criticism
Take your point. Such a table might be more meaningful once all teams have played each other.
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True, but then we're just getting closer to the point that all games have been played. I think there probably is more merit to an Elo/Glicko rating but with a huge number of variables predicting the future in football still seems in the distant well...future.
You've gone too deep for me, I'm afraid!
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That was purely meant as a snap shot of current performance based on games played to date. It's not intended as a forecast for end of season positions.
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Yeah, just copied the table and then did the calculation and then sorted it by points per game.
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Goal difference of plus 3 tells you that our position in the table is rather flattering At the moment
Huddersfield were promoted to the Premier League with a -2 goal difference. I know we all like to be as negative as we possibly can but we are having a decent season. Can't we just be happy that we've done well so far, even if there's still room for improvement?
I don’t think we are flattered by our position. The only game I thought we were lucky to win was Fleetwood. The only game we deserved to lose was Rotherham, and we did. If we had more of the rub of the green with regard to referees we would be in an even better position. With regard to the goal difference it shows that we win games often by a single goal. Anyone who has watched our games knows that a lot of them should have won by a 2 or 3 goal margin. I think it does show we need someone to consistently put the ball away.
If all you ever seen are green apples you can't say all apples are green 'cause when someone hands you a red apple you are going to feel like Grendel. However, this hasn't stopped science from making a killing from this sort of working out.
Yes, it's future predictions as well.
It's not just predicting the present position of each team in the division but their finishing positions as well.
The more games played: the more accurate it gets.
If you look at the faded line in the graph, the earlier games show much more ratings deviations then later on in the graph. The more games played the more stable the ratings become.
A note also needs to be made with this years line that the teams started with last years gradings which should make sorting teams a lot more accurate but can lead to some interesting choice of gradings earlier on in the competition, for example Portsmouth.
A note also needs to be made with this years line that the teams started with last years gradings which should make sorting teams a lot more accurate but can lead to some interesting choice of gradings earlier on in the competition, for example Portsmouth.
Your first paragraph leaves me baffled, especially the Grendel reference.
Anyway, I take it you're referring to your more sophisticated models when you say that they are predictive, rather than stup07's analysis of results to date? You'd hope that any model would become more accurate as data accumulates, otherwise it's fit for fuck all. Keep up the good work.
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Four out of the current top 6 have played the same number of games - Wouldn't worry too much about any of that, Cov will finish in the top two from what I have seen in this league - added to that statement
1. We have a number of players returning from injury but still kept in the top 6 mix when we were down to bare bones
2. Lots of teams in the top two divisions would loan a player to us in January (if we needed) as they like the way Mark Robins plays his football and looks after loan players - Robins does not get loan players in and let them rot on the bench
3. Robins is an excellent manager
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