What is going on with the Tory leadership contest? (1 Viewer)

[Sky Blue Pete]

Labour at 18% not great

 

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[Ian1779]

Labour at 18% not great

Not really no - but we are in the middle of a Tory party leadership battle with them getting exposure on 'their pledges' whilst we haven't actually moved anywhere with Brexit, and won't do until one of them (Boris) is in post.

As they actually have some kind of plan of what to do with the country - unlike the Brexit party and the Lib Dems when/if it comes to a GE this will bounce back.

I still think Labour coming out for Remain is a very bad idea for them.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Not really no - but we are in the middle of a Tory party leadership battle with them getting exposure on 'their pledges' whilst we haven't actually moved anywhere with Brexit, and won't do until one of them (Boris) is in post.

As they actually have some kind of plan of what to do with the country - unlike the Brexit party and the Lib Dems when/if it comes to a GE this will bounce back.

I still think Labour coming out for Remain is a very bad idea for them.

Labour coming out as remain would be a disaster for them, don't they have a large amount of leave voters?

 

[Ian1779]

Labour coming out as remain would be a disaster for them, don't they have a large amount of leave voters?

Not necessarily a large amount, but its where they are geographically. Most Labour leave voters are in the North of England - in crucial seats they would have to win to be the largest party.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

Labour coming out as remain would be a disaster for them, don't they have a large amount of leave voters?

The question's more complicated than that. It includes who you'd gain (disgruntled remain conservatives, people sodding off to the Lib Dems) and who'd vote Labour despite being Leave.

Personally I'd say it's all redundant if they don't do a pact with the Liberals I'd have thought, so they don't split the vote. And they won't do that.

 

[shmmeee]

Labour coming out as remain would be a disaster for them, don't they have a large amount of leave voters?

Not really. The stats don’t back it up when you dig into them. What they do have though is seats in leave voting areas. However working class leave voters also tend not to vote outside of the referendum, so it's anyones guess what BXP turnout will be like.

At the moment all the leavers think they’re Remain and all the remainers think they’re leave so worst of both worlds.

What’s really gonna fuck em is Corbyn. In the recent hypothetical polling the only set of circumstances that had a Labour government was a Remain platform lead by Keir Starmer. With Corbyn the choice was a Lib Dem govt under a soft Brexit platform or a Conservative govt under a Remain position.

 

[Ian1779]

I disagree with your assertion of Corbyn. Although he will be viewed as toxic by some, he has established a clear difference between Labour and the Tories. They are now anti-austerity - if they stop being that they are finished.

 

[shmmeee]

I disagree with your assertion of Corbyn. Although he will be viewed as toxic by some, he has established a clear difference between Labour and the Tories. They are now anti-austerity - if they stop being that they are finished.

Just reporting on the polling.

If (and it’s hypothetical polling so huge if) its right, Corbyn has no route to power other than a junior partner in a Lib Dem supply and confidence arrangement. And economically the Lib Dem’s are basically stories so would never let him do anything.

 

[Ian1779]

Just reporting on the polling.

If (and it’s hypothetical polling so huge if) its right, Corbyn has no route to power other than a junior partner in a Lib Dem supply and confidence arrangement. And economically the Lib Dem’s are basically stories so would never let him do anything.

We are in a state of paralysis right now. There is no way the Lib Dems or Brexit party will poll so highly when they have to produce a manifesto that will be scrutinised. They should enjoy their ‘theoretical’ moment in the sun.

 

[lifeskyblue]

For the first time I look at the 3 established parties and think I cannot vote for any of them...nor the Brexit lot. It’s the leaders: Boris or Hunt I just couldn’t trust them to put country before themselves. Corbyn lacks any notion of leadership; the guy should be leading the Labour Party way out in front in the polls. Swinson or Davey are second rate at best and voters will turn away at general election time. As for Farage...just an opportunist who will promise much but fall short.


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[NorthernWisdom]

We are in a state of paralysis right now. There is no way the Lib Dems or Brexit party will poll so highly when they have to produce a manifesto that will be scrutinised. They should enjoy their ‘theoretical’ moment in the sun.

The biggest problem the Lib Dems will have is persuading people their manifesto is genuine, after they betrayed a number of their voters by going into coalition with the Tories.

 

[Ian1779]

For the first time I look at the 3 established parties and think I cannot vote for any of them...nor the Brexit lot. It’s the leaders: Boris or Hunt I just couldn’t trust them to put country before themselves. Corbyn lacks any notion of leadership; the guy should be leading the Labour Party way out in front in the polls. Swinson or Davey are second rate at best and voters will turn away at general election time. As for Farage...just an opportunist who will promise much but fall short.


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I think voting records are a good analysis of someone's attributes and belief systems. Have a look at them for each of the above and I challenge you to find a better 'leader' than Corbyn.

 

[Ian1779]

The biggest problem the Lib Dems will have is persuading people their manifesto is genuine, after they betrayed a number of their voters by going into coalition with the Tories.

Especially with 2 potential leaders that voted with the Tory whip more times than either of the prospective Tory leaders did between 2010 and 2015.

 

[shmmeee]

We are in a state of paralysis right now. There is no way the Lib Dems or Brexit party will poll so highly when they have to produce a manifesto that will be scrutinised. They should enjoy their ‘theoretical’ moment in the sun.

The polls are crazy right now. It’s basically a 4 way split, I think a lot of traditional wisdom goes out the window here.

That said, it does at least give an insight into Remainers. Remember a lot are soft Tories who would rather Lib Dem’s than Corbyn any day of the week. Even more are centre left with a similar viewpoint.

 

[shmmeee]

The biggest problem the Lib Dems will have is persuading people their manifesto is genuine, after they betrayed a number of their voters by going into coalition with the Tories.

2010 Lib Dem voters were likely 2015 Corbyn voters who had never heard of the Orange Book (I know I was). Their whole shtick is being a reaction to the big parties. Then it was progressives annoyed with New Labour and the crash, now it’s remainers across the political spectrum.

 

[Ian1779]

2010 Lib Dem voters were likely 2015 Corbyn voters who had never heard of the Orange Book (I know I was). Their whole shtick is being a reaction to the big parties. Then it was progressives annoyed with New Labour and the crash, now it’s remainers across the political spectrum.

It's one thing attracting remainers across the political spectrum, but what are they going to offer them after Brexit - whether they succeed or not? They have nothing to offer anyone other than more of the same.

 

[lifeskyblue]

I think voting records are a good analysis of someone's attributes and belief systems. Have a look at them for each of the above and I challenge you to find a better 'leader' than Corbyn.

I don’t doubt his beliefs (and I share many) or attributes but I’m afraid leadership just isn’t one of them. He is having difficulty putting his mark on the fractious parliamentary Labour Party. A good strong leader would be uniting the party both with a forward thinking vision for Britain and with initiatives hammering a hopeless, divided and uncaring Tory government.


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[shmmeee]

It's one thing attracting remainers across the political spectrum, but what are they going to offer them after Brexit - whether they succeed or not? They have nothing to offer anyone other than more of the same.

Absolutely nothing. Just like they offered disaffected lefties post 2010. That’s their MO.

 

[CCFCSteve]

The biggest problem the Lib Dems will have is persuading people their manifesto is genuine, after they betrayed a number of their voters by going into coalition with the Tories.

It’s probably an unpopular view and I’m no major fan of the Lib Dem’s (or Clegg for that matter), however, I always think they are a bit hard done by the accusations of ‘betraying their voters’ during the coalition.

They were a minority partner in the coalition (57 to 306 seats) so would only have limited leverage/influence. At the time they did the right thing and took the grown up approach (very unlike mist political parties!) of forming a government during pretty difficult/uncertain times post financial crisis and pulled together the basis of the coalition agreement very quickly.

The fact is you’re not going to be able to deliver all/many of your pledges if youre part of a coalition. Looking back they were probably a decent balance to the Tories

 

[Ian1779]

It’s probably an unpopular view and I’m no major fan of the Lib Dem’s (or Clegg for that matter), however, I always think they are a bit hard done by the accusations of ‘betraying their voters’ during the coalition.

They were a minority partner in the coalition (57 to 306 seats) so would only have limited leverage/influence. At the time they did the right thing and took the grown up approach (very unlike mist political parties!) of forming a government during pretty difficult/uncertain times post financial crisis and pulled together the basis of the coalition agreement very quickly.

The fact is you’re not going to be able to deliver all/many of your pledges if youre part of a coalition. Looking back they were probably a decent balance to the Tories

It wasn’t grown up - it was a desperate grab for some tiny little power.

It’s not what they did/didn’t deliver, it’s the way they boasted about some of the things they did. Imagine being proud of swapping carrier bag charges for benefit sanctions? It’s a staggering thing to say and shows how out of touch they are.

And despite being destroyed for their part in the last coalition- they’d go back into another one with the Tories in a heartbeat.

Imagine claiming you are the future of politics but having literally nothing to offer...

 

[shmmeee]

It wasn’t grown up - it was a desperate grab for some tiny little power.

It’s not what they did/didn’t deliver, it’s the way they boasted about some of the things they did. Imagine being proud of swapping carrier bag charges for benefit sanctions? It’s a staggering thing to say and shows how out of touch they are.

And despite being destroyed for their part in the last coalition- they’d go back into another one with the Tories in a heartbeat.

Imagine claiming you are the future of politics but having literally nothing to offer...

Spot on. Once they saw those ministerial positions everything else went out the window.

I really hate the Lib Dem’s, they’re literally the least effective political party.

They wanted AV but screwed their image with the public pre referendum and put it into the long grass for a generation.

They were supposed to abolish tuition fees and raised them.

They’re pro-EU but managed to make Cameron so complacent he’d offer a referendum and then after aforementioned ruining of their reputation were the face of the pro EU side in this one.

All they do is pick up on a hot button topic that the left is overlooking, hoover up protest votes and enact centre right policies. While making whatever issue it was they picked up toxic.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Because they can. Estimating software is hard to do up front.

We should have a national computing corporation like we have the BBC that’s solely dedicated to creating/customising software for government and UK business. They could make money for the treasury from patents and copyright as well. The GDS is a good start but far far too small.

The problem is that we've gone so far down the road with proprietary software APIs etc that it is difficult to start again. I'm working on a project in the NHS at the minute, the naivety shown in the past by the public sector when faced with buying software is mental.

 

[martcov]

The polls are crazy right now. It’s basically a 4 way split, I think a lot of traditional wisdom goes out the window here.

That said, it does at least give an insight into Remainers. Remember a lot are soft Tories who would rather Lib Dem’s than Corbyn any day of the week. Even more are centre left with a similar viewpoint.

TBF, I Vote FDP ( Liberals). I have a social conscience, but I run 2 small businesses. I am not against all labour policies. More spending money for the poor through lower regressive taxation and a higher minimum wage, ( not too high ), and making it harder for companies to avoid tax, but making life easier for small businesses. The FDP is my only chance. I have never voted Tory or Labour, but would accept a Lib/ Lab pact.( If I lived in the UK )

 

[martcov]

Spot on. Once they saw those ministerial positions everything else went out the window.

I really hate the Lib Dem’s, they’re literally the least effective political party.

They wanted AV but screwed their image with the public pre referendum and put it into the long grass for a generation.

They were supposed to abolish tuition fees and raised them.

They’re pro-EU but managed to make Cameron so complacent he’d offer a referendum and then after aforementioned ruining of their reputation were the face of the pro EU side in this one.

All they do is pick up on a hot button topic that the left is overlooking, hoover up protest votes and enact centre right policies. While making whatever issue it was they picked up toxic.

Not 100% with you , but can accept and understand the criticism.

 

[martcov]

It wasn’t grown up - it was a desperate grab for some tiny little power.

It’s not what they did/didn’t deliver, it’s the way they boasted about some of the things they did. Imagine being proud of swapping carrier bag charges for benefit sanctions? It’s a staggering thing to say and shows how out of touch they are.

And despite being destroyed for their part in the last coalition- they’d go back into another one with the Tories in a heartbeat.

Imagine claiming you are the future of politics but having literally nothing to offer...

I would hope that they have learned.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

It wasn’t grown up - it was a desperate grab for some tiny little power..

So what were the alternatives?

1. Form a coalition with Labour. This would've also been seen as a grab at power, but even more undemocratic because the party with the most votes wasn't part of the government.
2. They turn down both the Tories and Labour and they get accused of not being strong enough to be in government.

Of all the options open to them they chose the hardest but fairest. Yes they fucked up in agreeing to tuition fees in exchange for a vote on AV, but the cuts brought in were way less drastic than the tories proposed in their manifesto.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

The biggest problem the Lib Dems will have is persuading people their manifesto is genuine, after they betrayed a number of their voters by going into coalition with the Tories.

It's wierd how stuff sticks to some and not to others. Every single party that has gone into government has broken manifesto promises. Difference is that those parties had a majority and so their manifesto's were what they intended to do and didn't. The Lib Dem manifesto was for a Lib Dem government - we didn't get a Lib Dem government. They also didn't say they wouldn't go into coalition with the Tories as a manifesto pledge. The main pledge they broke was no tuition fees, which given their core base was a big mistake.

I don't see why the LD are blamed so much for what went on in that government when the majority partner in it, the Tories, aren't.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

They were supposed to abolish tuition fees and raised them.

No - the coalition raised them of which they were very much the junior partner. Tories wanted to raise them. If was a tactical error, but the main reason the tuition fees went up was the Tories, followed by the LD for supporting in in exchange for an AV referendum.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

It’s probably an unpopular view and I’m no major fan of the Lib Dem’s (or Clegg for that matter), however, I always think they are a bit hard done by the accusations of ‘betraying their voters’ during the coalition.

They were a minority partner in the coalition (57 to 306 seats) so would only have limited leverage/influence. At the time they did the right thing and took the grown up approach (very unlike mist political parties!) of forming a government during pretty difficult/uncertain times post financial crisis and pulled together the basis of the coalition agreement very quickly.

The fact is you’re not going to be able to deliver all/many of your pledges if youre part of a coalition. Looking back they were probably a decent balance to the Tories

The grown up thing would have been allying themselves with the party (Labour) with policies closer to their voters, or allowing the Conservatives to govern as a minority.

Instead, they betrayed their principles, partly because Clegg disliked Gordon Brown.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

The grown up thing would have been allying themselves with the party (Labour) with policies closer to their voters, or allowing the Conservatives to govern as a minority.

Instead, they betrayed their principles, partly because Clegg disliked Gordon Brown.

As I've said above, in some alternate reality where they did those things they're still being crucified for some reason or another. There was no right answer for them. Personally I wouldn't have gone in with the Tories.

 

[Ian1779]

I would hope that they have learned.

There is literally not a single shred of evidence they have so far.

 

[skybluetony176]

Just watching battle for the Tory Party and Bloody hell Oswald Mosley must be looking down (or is that up) with glee. Can’t see me ever voting Tory again. It’s not even Boris or Hunt, it’s the average Tory Party member. What a bunch of racists nutters, it’s turned into a cult.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

Just watching battle for the Tory Party and Bloody hell Oswald Mosley must be looking down (or is that up) with glee. Can’t see me ever voting Tory again. It’s not even Boris or Hunt, it’s the average Tory Party member. What a bunch of racists nutters, it’s turned into a cult.

Entryism

 

[skybluetony176]

Entryism

There was certainly a lot of I know I’ve only just joined the Conservatives but...

 

[fernandopartridge]

Just watching battle for the Tory Party and Bloody hell Oswald Mosley must be looking down (or is that up) with glee. Can’t see me ever voting Tory again. It’s not even Boris or Hunt, it’s the average Tory Party member. What a bunch of racists nutters, it’s turned into a cult.

It's been like that for years, these are the ultra Thatcherites.