"The loans cannot be defaulted" - as long as the club/company exists.
If we assume no takeover then SISU will have to continue to fund any losses. Ken D told us that the club was moving towards break-even "by the summer", but that relegation would be "a disaster". So that suggests that SISU are currently funding losses and that when we get relegated (I'd love to think we can stay up, but without significant investement in the squad I can't see how), a further round of cost cutting will be required to attempt to offset the £4m (I believe) in Championship payments that we'll lose. In summary, SISU have to continue to put "good money after bad" and menwhile the club continues in its spiral of decline.
At some point, they decide to either:
1) Sell the club - and (in my opinion) have to at that point accept a significant write down on their loans or
2) Walk away - presumably via administration (and possibly even liquidation) and at that point accept a significant write down on their loans.
That's what I see as the reality of the current situation and that's why I really can't believe that SISU expect to get all their loans paid back.
As the warnings say - "the value of your investment can go down as well as up" - it has!!
Many seem to think (even pin their hopes on) that sisu's only option is to take whatever is offered, but that is hardly the case.
As I said in my previous post then it would seem like the funding is secured for the rest of the season (through player trading, not more loans).
For almost 9 months it seems like a buyer have been trying to get an offer accepted. So there must be at least one buyer. The first offer was plainly rejected as totally unacceptable.
At that time sisu were actively looking for co-investors, not buyers, and they had a finance plan to get the club through this season.
Now halfway through the season the situation is a bit different.
They haven't succeeded in bringing in co-investors and there may be a number of reasons. The credit crunch and the protests being the most likely.
So their options look down to either stay and keep funding or sell up.
Should they decide to stay, then they'll need to cut costs even more. They would probably sell off almost any player that could command a fee - Bigi, Thomas, Murphy, Wood, Cristie, Hussey etc.
On one hand that would go a long way to secure the finances for a season in league one, and as the Financial Fair Play regulation sets in many clubs will be forced to release players (or face transfer embargo and points deduction) and on the other hand, in that situation the club may be able to replace most players at a lower cost and at lower wages. We would still be able to send a team out each match day.
I am not a financial wizard, but I don't think relegation will set sisu worse than selling cheaply and I don't think administration will be the outcome in a forseeable future.
The protests are all about forcing sisu's hand, but it also put pressure on Hoffman. Should he continue to suggest a deal that is unacceptable to sisu, then he won't get what he wants, and I think he knows it. So the pressure is on him as the fans expect him to conclude a deal in time to strengthen the team and avoid relegation. If he secures a deal too late to save us from relegation, then HE will face the daunting task of cutting costs, selling players and stay within the FFP regulation next season. He might win the battle and get the club but fans love will not last long.
And again ... the deal will be all about the loans. There will be three numbers: Amount down payment, amount to be paid later and an amount (percentage) in interest on the amount to be paid later.
