Who else is looking forward to finishing 17th place for the next 34 years? (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnWH
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Lamps
Well-Known Member
The Prem/old Division 1 is a totally different animal than when we were last in it. Money brought in through the turnstiles used to be very important but now it's just a top up to the income.
Stay up just 1 season now and you have a massive advantage. We could be on the verge of becoming a Brentford.
Stay up just 1 season now and you have a massive advantage. We could be on the verge of becoming a Brentford.
Otis
Well-Known Member
It is different for sure and is almost three leagues in one.
Those right at the top, always pushing for the title and top 4, then those that are mid/high mid table, who are often in with a chance of Europe and then those almost always just trying to stay up and make it to mid-table, in order to stay in the Premier for another season.
Our aim at first has to be just to survive.
That would be an achievement and anything better than that would be a very, very good season indeed
Those right at the top, always pushing for the title and top 4, then those that are mid/high mid table, who are often in with a chance of Europe and then those almost always just trying to stay up and make it to mid-table, in order to stay in the Premier for another season.
Our aim at first has to be just to survive.
That would be an achievement and anything better than that would be a very, very good season indeed
bigfatronssba
Well-Known Member
In many ways it’s easier to mentally prepare for next season. We know it’s going to be a tough relegation battle.
Compared to the Championship where anything can happen.
Compared to the Championship where anything can happen.
Cally Fedora
Well-Known Member
Difference being if you scrap it out for 2-3 seasons you transform the club financially. In the old Div 1 days there wasn’t as much of an incentive cash wise. And anyway, some of those escapes are my best memories watching us.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
The best thing for me is the lack of expectations for us. Lampard is supposed to be average at best and we're only supposed to have won the Championship title with games to spare because it's supposed to be a poor Championship this season.
What people love to ignore is he took Derby to a rare playoff place and got to the final, losing narrowly to Villa 2-1 in the final with the Derby GK only making 1 save all game. Chelsea were in serious trouble when he went there yet he did what he went there for.
Since he came to us we were only behind Leefs and Burnley on points last season although he took over a side only 2 points outside the relegation battle. This season we have won the title with a couple of games to spare. A great achievement for a non parachute side.
The Prem can still be unpredictable. Leeds and Sunderland are safe although not mathematically for Leeds. Spurs are in great danger of getting relegated with a £1B squad. We only have to beat the two sides we beat this season plus one more to stay up.
I'm not saying we will stay up. We don't even know who our GK will be yet. But we're going up with players that proved themselves this season, and if they continue to improve next season plus the new signings yet to come in we will have a chance.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
We're at a disadvantage here. The winner of the Championship is normally a parachute payment club. I still fancy our chances though.
It will be very tough, we have got away with a lot of slack play at the back this season. The Prem strikers will take those chances that were missed in the Championship. We desperately need Rushworth or someone similar. Please don’t suggest Dovin. At least two more quality defenders and two quality strikers too plus another midfielder. Players that we have cherished over the last couple of years will look very ordinary at that level.
With clever scouting, a good man manager and a few bargains we could just about survive but the odds are against us.
With clever scouting, a good man manager and a few bargains we could just about survive but the odds are against us.
Otis
Well-Known Member
This is from last July, so just after Sunderland, Burnley and Leeds were promoted.
From Opta Analyst and its in regard to survival in the Premier League.
*Make a Good Start
In 33 Premier League seasons, none of the 15 promoted teams to collect eight or more points from their opening five games have gone straight back down.
In the last three seasons, only Fulham in 2022-23 have reached at least eight points from their first five games (10) of the promoted teams, and the Cottagers went on to finish 10th.
Across the last two seasons, none of the promoted teams have won more than three points from their first five games, and of course, all six were relegated.
In Premier League history, only one promoted team has stayed up despite not winning a single point from their first four games: Southampton in 2012-13.
Although not a promoted team at the time, should anyone suffer a truly awful start, they can perhaps take solace from the performance of Crystal Palace in 2017-18, who recorded seven straight defeats without scoring a single goal to start the season. Four losses came losses came under Frank de Boer before another three under Roy Hodgson, who ultimately guided the Eagles to 11th.
Looking at the first five games for next season’s promoted teams, Burnley face Sunderland in their second game at Turf Moor, which is a chance for one of them to get an early three points on the board. The Clarets start at Tottenham, then after hosting Sunderland, it’s a tricky trio of Manchester United (A), Liverpool (H) and Nottingham Forest (H). According to the Opta supercomputer, though, it is the fourth-easiest start to the season of all Premier League teams.
Its' not an absolute necessity, but getting points on the board early can really come in handy, not just for the obvious reasons but also in giving a promoted team the belief they can compete at the level required.
*The Magic ‘40 Points’ Mark?
We’re all aware of the cliché that a minimum of 40 points means you stay in the Premier League. But is that number accurate?
Pretty much. Just looking at the Premier League since it went down to 20 teams (since the start of the 1995-96 season), the average points total of the teams who finished 17th is 37.9. In fact, Spurs finished 17th on 38 points last season.
That said, the team finishing 18th has averaged 34.5 points, so 35 should be enough in theory.
The promoted teams have unfortunately not got anywhere close to that in the last two seasons, with Luton amassing 26 points in 2023-24 and Leicester only managing 25 last
That said, the team finishing 18th has averaged 34.5 points, so 35 should be enough in theory.
The promoted teams have unfortunately not got anywhere close to that in the last two seasons, with Luton amassing 26 points in 2023-24 and Leicester only managing 25 last season, the two lowest totals for teams who finished 18th in the 38-game era. Only once prior to that over the same period had a team finished 18th with fewer than 30 points: Fulham in 2020-21 (28 points).
It is also interesting to see how the bar for finishing 17th lowered after the early years of the Premier League. In six of the first eight seasons after the competition reduced to 20 teams, the team who finished 17th won at least 40 points. Since then, it has only occurred twice in 22 seasons. The last team to reach the magic 40 mark and finish 17th were Watford in 2016-17.
In 2023 Nottingham Forest finished on 32 points, the fewest ever amassed by the team who finished 17th in the Premier League. That had the caveat of them being deducted four points for breaching profit and sustainability rules (PSR), however.
The only time a team have been relegated with more than 40 points was West Ham in 2002-03 (42). Middlesbrough did win 42 points in 1996-97 but were deducted three by the Premier League for not fulfilling a fixture with Blackburn. That ultimately sent them down as 42 points would have been enough to stay up.
There have been two occurrences of a team winning exactly 40 points but still going down in a 38-game Premier League campaign: Sunderland in 1996-97 and Bolton in 1997-98. It therefore hasn’t happened in 27 years, so yes, 40 points will almost certainly see you safe.
The best way to get there? Win games (keep reading for more expert insight like that). Eleven victories and survival should be guaranteed. The most games won by a team who were relegated from the Premier League in a 38 game season is 10 (nine teams).
Try not to lose too often, as well (seriously, how do we come up with this stuff?). That said, Tottenham lost 22 games last season, the most ever suffered in a 38-game Premier League season by a team who weren’t relegated. Despite that, they were 13 points clear of relegation, only drawing five times (W11), so draws are arguably as much of a killer as losses.
That is partly proven by the team who suffered the fewest losses en route to relegation: Birmingham City. They only lost 15 times in 2010-11 but also drew 15 games, winning just eight as they slipped back into the Championship.
*Home Form… Or Away Form
No team has ever been relegated from the Premier League in a 38-game season having won at least 30 points at home. The most home points won by a relegated team is 29, achieved by both Middlesbrough in 1996-97 (though as mentioned, they had a three-point deduction) and Bolton Wanderers in 1997-98.
It is not a prerequisite, though. Hull City stayed up in 2008-09 despite winning just 14 points on home soil; their 21 points in away games helped the Tigers survive that year. That was quite an outlier, though. Apart from Hull, no team has ever stayed up having won fewer than 18 points from their 19 home games.
Unsurprisingly, Leeds and Burnley – who both won 100 points in the Championship last season – had impressive home records during their promotion campaigns. Leeds won 58 points from 23 home games, losing just once (W18 D4), while Burnley went undefeated at Turf Moor, though did draw nine times (W14).
Sunderland only had the sixth-best home record in the division, winning 43 points at the Stadium of Light (W12 D7 L4).
Alternatively, you could be strong away from home, and winning at least 23 points on the road should do it. The most away points won by a team relegated from the Premier League in a 38-game season is 22 (Crystal Palace in 1997-98).
Three sides have stayed up despite winning as few as seven points in their away games: Coventry City in 1999-2000, Fulham in 2005-06 and Burnley in 2016-17, though all three did win at least 33 points at home.
None of the six relegated teams over the last two seasons were able to earn more than 16 points either home or away, and none were able to win more than 10 both home and away. By stark contrast, in both seasons the two teams who finished directly above them won a minimum of 16 points both home and away.
Burnley had the best away record in the Championship last season, winning 49 points (W14 D7 L2) and, remarkably, conceding just eight times in their 23 away games. Leeds had the third-best away record with 42 points and only lost three games on the road (W11 D9), while Sunderland had the next best with 33 points (W9 D6 L8).
*Find a Goalscorer
In theory, if you can find yourself a consistent goalscorer, you have a great chance of survival. Only six teams have been relegated from the Premier League despite having a player score more than 14 goals in that season.
2023-24, nobody scored more than six goals for either Sheffield United (Ben Brereton and Ollie McBurnie, 6 each) or Burnley (Jacob Bruun Larsen, 6). Luton’s Carlton Morris scored 11 and Elijah Adebayo hit 10. However, conceding 85 goals, at least 11 more than anyone who finished above them, didn’t help the Hatters.
In 2024-25, no Leicester player reached double figures; Jamie Vardy top-scored with nine, but that was still significantly better than Southampton, whose top scorer was Paul Onuachu with just four goals.
Liam Delap netted 12 times for Ipswich but didn’t get much help. No other Tractor Boy managed more than four.
*Keep it Tight
A solid defence is undoubtedly helpful, which is likely what Burnley will be hoping for, having conceded just 16 goals in the Championship last season. Leeds had the next best record with 30 conceded, while Sunderland were fourth with 44 against.
That said, the 2021-22 season saw Leeds concede 79 goals and stay up, the joint most in the 20-team Premier League era for a side who didn’t get relegated.
It seems more important to just ensure your goal difference doesn’t get too out of control. The average goal difference of relegated teams in the 38-game era is -25.4.
The worst goal difference a team have had while staying up is Wigan Athletic’s -42 in the 2009-10 season, at least five worse than any other such team.
From Opta Analyst and its in regard to survival in the Premier League.
*Make a Good Start
In 33 Premier League seasons, none of the 15 promoted teams to collect eight or more points from their opening five games have gone straight back down.
In the last three seasons, only Fulham in 2022-23 have reached at least eight points from their first five games (10) of the promoted teams, and the Cottagers went on to finish 10th.
Across the last two seasons, none of the promoted teams have won more than three points from their first five games, and of course, all six were relegated.
In Premier League history, only one promoted team has stayed up despite not winning a single point from their first four games: Southampton in 2012-13.
Although not a promoted team at the time, should anyone suffer a truly awful start, they can perhaps take solace from the performance of Crystal Palace in 2017-18, who recorded seven straight defeats without scoring a single goal to start the season. Four losses came losses came under Frank de Boer before another three under Roy Hodgson, who ultimately guided the Eagles to 11th.
Looking at the first five games for next season’s promoted teams, Burnley face Sunderland in their second game at Turf Moor, which is a chance for one of them to get an early three points on the board. The Clarets start at Tottenham, then after hosting Sunderland, it’s a tricky trio of Manchester United (A), Liverpool (H) and Nottingham Forest (H). According to the Opta supercomputer, though, it is the fourth-easiest start to the season of all Premier League teams.
Its' not an absolute necessity, but getting points on the board early can really come in handy, not just for the obvious reasons but also in giving a promoted team the belief they can compete at the level required.
*The Magic ‘40 Points’ Mark?
We’re all aware of the cliché that a minimum of 40 points means you stay in the Premier League. But is that number accurate?
Pretty much. Just looking at the Premier League since it went down to 20 teams (since the start of the 1995-96 season), the average points total of the teams who finished 17th is 37.9. In fact, Spurs finished 17th on 38 points last season.
That said, the team finishing 18th has averaged 34.5 points, so 35 should be enough in theory.
The promoted teams have unfortunately not got anywhere close to that in the last two seasons, with Luton amassing 26 points in 2023-24 and Leicester only managing 25 last
That said, the team finishing 18th has averaged 34.5 points, so 35 should be enough in theory.
The promoted teams have unfortunately not got anywhere close to that in the last two seasons, with Luton amassing 26 points in 2023-24 and Leicester only managing 25 last season, the two lowest totals for teams who finished 18th in the 38-game era. Only once prior to that over the same period had a team finished 18th with fewer than 30 points: Fulham in 2020-21 (28 points).
It is also interesting to see how the bar for finishing 17th lowered after the early years of the Premier League. In six of the first eight seasons after the competition reduced to 20 teams, the team who finished 17th won at least 40 points. Since then, it has only occurred twice in 22 seasons. The last team to reach the magic 40 mark and finish 17th were Watford in 2016-17.
In 2023 Nottingham Forest finished on 32 points, the fewest ever amassed by the team who finished 17th in the Premier League. That had the caveat of them being deducted four points for breaching profit and sustainability rules (PSR), however.
The only time a team have been relegated with more than 40 points was West Ham in 2002-03 (42). Middlesbrough did win 42 points in 1996-97 but were deducted three by the Premier League for not fulfilling a fixture with Blackburn. That ultimately sent them down as 42 points would have been enough to stay up.
There have been two occurrences of a team winning exactly 40 points but still going down in a 38-game Premier League campaign: Sunderland in 1996-97 and Bolton in 1997-98. It therefore hasn’t happened in 27 years, so yes, 40 points will almost certainly see you safe.
The best way to get there? Win games (keep reading for more expert insight like that). Eleven victories and survival should be guaranteed. The most games won by a team who were relegated from the Premier League in a 38 game season is 10 (nine teams).
Try not to lose too often, as well (seriously, how do we come up with this stuff?). That said, Tottenham lost 22 games last season, the most ever suffered in a 38-game Premier League season by a team who weren’t relegated. Despite that, they were 13 points clear of relegation, only drawing five times (W11), so draws are arguably as much of a killer as losses.
That is partly proven by the team who suffered the fewest losses en route to relegation: Birmingham City. They only lost 15 times in 2010-11 but also drew 15 games, winning just eight as they slipped back into the Championship.
*Home Form… Or Away Form
No team has ever been relegated from the Premier League in a 38-game season having won at least 30 points at home. The most home points won by a relegated team is 29, achieved by both Middlesbrough in 1996-97 (though as mentioned, they had a three-point deduction) and Bolton Wanderers in 1997-98.
It is not a prerequisite, though. Hull City stayed up in 2008-09 despite winning just 14 points on home soil; their 21 points in away games helped the Tigers survive that year. That was quite an outlier, though. Apart from Hull, no team has ever stayed up having won fewer than 18 points from their 19 home games.
Unsurprisingly, Leeds and Burnley – who both won 100 points in the Championship last season – had impressive home records during their promotion campaigns. Leeds won 58 points from 23 home games, losing just once (W18 D4), while Burnley went undefeated at Turf Moor, though did draw nine times (W14).
Sunderland only had the sixth-best home record in the division, winning 43 points at the Stadium of Light (W12 D7 L4).
Alternatively, you could be strong away from home, and winning at least 23 points on the road should do it. The most away points won by a team relegated from the Premier League in a 38-game season is 22 (Crystal Palace in 1997-98).
Three sides have stayed up despite winning as few as seven points in their away games: Coventry City in 1999-2000, Fulham in 2005-06 and Burnley in 2016-17, though all three did win at least 33 points at home.
None of the six relegated teams over the last two seasons were able to earn more than 16 points either home or away, and none were able to win more than 10 both home and away. By stark contrast, in both seasons the two teams who finished directly above them won a minimum of 16 points both home and away.
Burnley had the best away record in the Championship last season, winning 49 points (W14 D7 L2) and, remarkably, conceding just eight times in their 23 away games. Leeds had the third-best away record with 42 points and only lost three games on the road (W11 D9), while Sunderland had the next best with 33 points (W9 D6 L8).
*Find a Goalscorer
In theory, if you can find yourself a consistent goalscorer, you have a great chance of survival. Only six teams have been relegated from the Premier League despite having a player score more than 14 goals in that season.
2023-24, nobody scored more than six goals for either Sheffield United (Ben Brereton and Ollie McBurnie, 6 each) or Burnley (Jacob Bruun Larsen, 6). Luton’s Carlton Morris scored 11 and Elijah Adebayo hit 10. However, conceding 85 goals, at least 11 more than anyone who finished above them, didn’t help the Hatters.
In 2024-25, no Leicester player reached double figures; Jamie Vardy top-scored with nine, but that was still significantly better than Southampton, whose top scorer was Paul Onuachu with just four goals.
Liam Delap netted 12 times for Ipswich but didn’t get much help. No other Tractor Boy managed more than four.
*Keep it Tight
A solid defence is undoubtedly helpful, which is likely what Burnley will be hoping for, having conceded just 16 goals in the Championship last season. Leeds had the next best record with 30 conceded, while Sunderland were fourth with 44 against.
That said, the 2021-22 season saw Leeds concede 79 goals and stay up, the joint most in the 20-team Premier League era for a side who didn’t get relegated.
It seems more important to just ensure your goal difference doesn’t get too out of control. The average goal difference of relegated teams in the 38-game era is -25.4.
The worst goal difference a team have had while staying up is Wigan Athletic’s -42 in the 2009-10 season, at least five worse than any other such team.
Milan's hair dye
Well-Known Member
Looking forwards to smashing the league with our loan signing
Speedie's Head
Well-Known Member
The odds are quite interesting beyond the 2000-1 to win the league. You can only get 6-4 if you fancy us to stay up and 20-1 on a top 10 finish.
Milan's hair dye
Well-Known Member
6-4 staying up is quite good, well in the terms that bookies don't want to lose money
Warwickhunt
Well-Known Member
and we would have had 5 more penalties with VAR all of which could be points
AOM
Well-Known Member
I have a feeling it will go one of two ways for some reason.
We either could do a Wolves and finish the season with 2-3 wins, or we do a Sunderland and we're pushing top half.
Genuinely can't wait
Skyblue Bangkok
Well-Known Member
bigfatronssba
Well-Known Member
why would we finish below the two teams that are coming up with us?
Ccfcisparks
Well-Known Member
Id absolutely snap your hand off for 10 years of 17th tbh
SkyBlueMatt
Well-Known Member
If those are the only options, 34 years of 15-17th. I'd rather get relegated and go again.
Ccfcisparks
Well-Known Member
They sign better players?
bigfatronssba
Well-Known Member
They didn’t last summer, so why would they this one?
Ccfcisparks
Well-Known Member
Sunderland finished below Leeds and Burnley in the Championship and have finished above them this year?
Grendel
Well-Known Member
There were a lot of escapes but it’s a bit of an urban myth in some respects - many seasons we were not in the relegation mix
Lamps
Well-Known Member
A strange set of odds
Leicester were 5,000/1 when they won the Prem. Maybe the Lampard factor?
6/4 for staying up? Could be good or poor odds. If I'm as confident for us to stay up as I am now I will lump on it. But my confidence depends on what we do in the transfer window before the season starts. I trust King to back Lampard and Lampard to give us a good chance, but let's have the excitement of the transfer window first.
You never know. 20/1 could well be worth a dabble.
bigfatronssba
Well-Known Member
I’m not saying it can’t happen.
Just wondering why, at this stage, someone would be predicting that?
At this exact moment, we’re unquestionably better than the other two coming up with us
Lamps
Well-Known Member
It's a difficult one. I would say we have a better 1st team than Southampton but they have a better squad.
With Ipswich I'm not convinced by McKenna. Bt if they go up they will most probably keep him which would be a bonus.
The 3 promoted sides will look different from now as all 3 will strengthen. I would put Lampard as the one easily with the best chance of putting together the strongest Prem side out of the 3 so I'm fully in agreement with you here.
Jay88
Well-Known Member
Especially the stone wall penalty on Haji Wright at 0-0 against Ipswich at home. Obviously in the away game VAR wouldn't have been able to intervene but how the hell George Hirst got away without a 2nd yellow for kicking the ball away at 0-0. We went on to lose both games.
