Where and when will we win promotion? (3 Viewers)

[Mild-Mannered Janitor]

Really worried in regards to No 2. Just had our oil refilled and it went from £425 last time to £1075 this week!
Can @Mild-Mannered Janitor start an oil heating fund alongside the season ticket fund please.

I’ll get you a jumper from Primark, it’s spring now so warming up and keep clapping all those goals going in, should help you keep warm

 

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[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

Surely we would be allowed to do it a week early for Wrexham game?

A guard of honour from Sheafo. Delicious.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

There is something weirdly satisfying about seeing our first place in the bag for future games

 

[Briles]

Im sticking to this from December

 

[Adge]

I’ll get you a jumper from Primark, it’s spring Fair, but what about hot water? now so warming up and keep clapping all those goals going in, should help you keep warm

Fair enough regarding the heating. What about my hot water?

 

[SonofErnie]

Im sticking to this from December

View attachment 50073

I'd prefix that with 'as good as'. I think we'll need to win that game to confirm it.

 

[alexccfc99]

What a real shame we do not have Leicester, Blues or Sheffield United in the last knockings of the season, watching one of them have to give us a guard of honour would have been priceless

 

[skybluecb]

Could you imagine if Stoke had been our last home game

 

[Saddlebrains]

Ive done a couple of predictors this morning as not got much on work wise until this afternoon

I hate to break it to anyone but in both, where I fiddled results around a bit, we get promoted when we're not even playing

Ipswich Boro game result promotes us

 

[covcity4life]

There is something weirdly satisfying about seeing our first place in the bag for future games

View attachment 50072

It's only in the bag for 2 games?

 

[Sky Blue Goblin]

Ive done a couple of predictors this morning as not got much on work wise until this afternoon

I hate to break it to anyone but in both, where I fiddled results around a bit, we get promoted when we're not even playing

Ipswich Boro game result promotes us

Piss up in the fan zone?

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

Ive done a couple of predictors this morning as not got much on work wise until this afternoon

I hate to break it to anyone but in both, where I fiddled results around a bit, we get promoted when we're not even playing

Ipswich Boro game result promotes us

Something tells me there's going to be a sickness bug going around in the 24 hours following this! Get your excuses in for work now lads.

 

[matesx]

hoping Sheff Weds

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It's only in the bag for 2 games?

Still nice to look at

 

[CCFC_BR]

I may well be missing something obvious but to get promoted at Blackburn:

- we need to be 10 points ahead of 4th place downwards going in to the game and then beat Blackburn (currently 11 ahead)

- we need to be 8 ahead of Boro going in to game and win (currently 9) and 10 ahead of Ipswich going in to the game and win (currently 11)

 

[Kneeza]

Fair enough regarding the heating. What about my hot water?

It's probably a urinary tract infection. Antibiotics may sort it.

 

[skybluebristol]

I disagree on being promoted without playing. It's possible but I don't think it's likely. It's probably more likely that we clinch both at home to Portsmouth.

Ipswich v Boro on 18th April:

Ipswich have a game in hand right until the end of April, so their ceiling is higher. Coventry are promoted without playing if the following happens:

If Ipswich win: Cov are 10pts+ clear of Boro
If Draw: Cov are 14pts+ clear of Ipswich
If Boro win: Cov are 13pts+ clear of Ipswich

_____

I had a look at how many points confirms it, here's what I've come up with. The way this works is how many points we will need starting the day, and a win vs this team guarantees promotion or *at least* second place.

1. Vs Blackburn (17th April): We need to be 13 points clear of Ipswich (due to the GiH) - a win clinches promotion and the title (currently 11).

2. Ipswich v Boro (18th April): see notes above.

3. Vs Portsmouth (21st April): We need to be 10 points clear of Ipswich - a win clinches promotion and the title, at home.

4. Vs Wrexham (25th April): We need to be 7 points clear of Ipswich - a win clinches promotion and the title - final home game.

Ipswich have a higher points ceiling than Boro and they have a midweek game right at the end of April.


Can someone check my working please?

Edit: I've not included Millwall in this, but if they are interchangeable with Boro if they overtake them.

 

[richnrg]

Can someone check my working please?

no

 

[covcity4life]

Still nice to look at

But our lead is bigger than 6?

Is it cos of Ipswich game in hand?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

But our lead is bigger than 6?

Is it cos of Ipswich game in hand?

Yes

 

[marrrkjay_ccfc]

I disagree on being promoted without playing. It's possible but I don't think it's likely. It's probably more likely that we clinch both at home to Portsmouth.

Ipswich v Boro on 18th April:

Ipswich have a game in hand right until the end of April, so their ceiling is higher. Coventry are promoted without playing if the following happens:

If Ipswich win: Cov are 10pts+ clear of Boro
If Draw: Cov are 14pts+ clear of Ipswich
If Boro win: Cov are 13pts+ clear of Ipswich

_____

I had a look at how many points confirms it, here's what I've come up with. The way this works is how many points we will need starting the day, and a win vs this team guarantees promotion or *at least* second place.

1. Vs Blackburn (17th April): We need to be 13 points clear of Ipswich (due to the GiH) - a win clinches promotion and the title (currently 11).

2. Ipswich v Boro (18th April): see notes above.

3. Vs Portsmouth (21st April): We need to be 10 points clear of Ipswich - a win clinches promotion and the title, at home.

4. Vs Wrexham (25th April): We need to be 7 points clear of Ipswich - a win clinches promotion and the title - final home game.

Ipswich have a higher points ceiling than Boro and they have a midweek game right at the end of April.


Can someone check my working please?

Edit: I've not included Millwall in this, but if they are interchangeable with Boro if they overtake them.

The "Promotion Window"​

Because Ipswich has a game in hand (against Portsmouth on April 14), their maximum ceiling is slightly higher than Boro's. Here is when Coventry can realistically pop the champagne:

1. Friday, April 17: vs Blackburn (Away)​

• The Scenario: If Coventry enters this game 13 points clear of Ipswich (meaning Ipswich dropped points in their game in hand or the previous weekend), a win here secures promotion.
• Current Reality: Coventry is currently 11 points ahead of Ipswich. If the gap remains the same, a win against Blackburn puts them on the brink but likely doesn't mathematically seal it yet due to Ipswich's extra games.

2. Sunday, April 19: Ipswich v Middlesbrough​

• The "Armchair" Promotion: This is the big one. Since the top two chasers play each other, someone must drop points.
• If Ipswich wins: Coventry is promoted if they are 10+ points clear of Boro.
• If it's a Draw: Coventry is promoted if they are 14+ points clear of Ipswich.
• If Boro wins: Coventry is promoted if they are 13+ points clear of Ipswich.

3. Tuesday, April 21: vs Portsmouth (Home)​

• The Home Party: If results didn't go Coventry's way over the weekend, a win here at the CBS Arena almost certainly does it. To seal the Title as well as promotion, they need to be 10 points clear of Ipswich at the start of the day.

4. Saturday, April 25: vs Wrexham (Home)​

• The Final Fail-safe: In the unlikely event of a late-season wobble, a win here guarantees everything as long as they are 7 points clear.

 

[skybluebristol]

The "Promotion Window"​

Because Ipswich has a game in hand (against Portsmouth on April 14), their maximum ceiling is slightly higher than Boro's. Here is when Coventry can realistically pop the champagne:

1. Friday, April 17: vs Blackburn (Away)​

• The Scenario: If Coventry enters this game 13 points clear of Ipswich (meaning Ipswich dropped points in their game in hand or the previous weekend), a win here secures promotion.
• Current Reality: Coventry is currently 11 points ahead of Ipswich. If the gap remains the same, a win against Blackburn puts them on the brink but likely doesn't mathematically seal it yet due to Ipswich's extra games.

2. Sunday, April 19: Ipswich v Middlesbrough​

• The "Armchair" Promotion: This is the big one. Since the top two chasers play each other, someone must drop points.
• If Ipswich wins: Coventry is promoted if they are 10+ points clear of Boro.
• If it's a Draw: Coventry is promoted if they are 14+ points clear of Ipswich.
• If Boro wins: Coventry is promoted if they are 13+ points clear of Ipswich.

3. Tuesday, April 21: vs Portsmouth (Home)​

• The Home Party: If results didn't go Coventry's way over the weekend, a win here at the CBS Arena almost certainly does it. To seal the Title as well as promotion, they need to be 10 points clear of Ipswich at the start of the day.

4. Saturday, April 25: vs Wrexham (Home)​

• The Final Fail-safe: In the unlikely event of a late-season wobble, a win here guarantees everything as long as they are 7 points clear.

Ok cool. I think this is the same as what I have!

 

[alexccfc99]

1. Friday, April 17: vs Blackburn (Away)​

• The Scenario: If Coventry enters this game 13 points clear of Ipswich (meaning Ipswich dropped points in their game in hand or the previous weekend), a win here secures promotion.

Ipswich not playing Good Friday - If we were to beat Derby we would go 14pts clear of them so we would in effect need to maintain that gap Easter Monday to win promotion against Sheffield Wednesday?

 

[richnrg]

Ipswich not playing Good Friday - If we were to beat Derby we would go 14pts clear of them so we would in effect need to maintain that gap Easter Monday to win promotion against Sheffield Wednesday?

Yes. In simple terms, we would get promoted by beating Wednesday on Saturday, otherwise we would need to wait until the following Tuesday.

 

[alexccfc99]

Yes. In simple terms, we would get promoted by beating Wednesday on Saturday, otherwise we would need to wait until the following Tuesday.

Makes sense - If we were to beat Derby, then Ipswich were to lose at home to Birmingham on Easter Monday and then we went and beat Hull later in the day then we would be home and dry as well surely?

I think it is possible that a win against Sheff Weds combined with Ipswich failing to take all 3 pts in the East Anglian Derby at Carrow Road at the same time could be the scenario

 

[Ccfcsj]

Remember - we only need 11 more points due to teams around us playing each other - it doesn't matter if their game is after ours - the points might not be on the board as they haven't played yet but the calculations still work.

I know it's a long shot but win our next 3 games, a win at Blackburn confirms promotion; lose one of the next 3 games then a win against Portsmouth confirms promotion - lose more than one and it goes on a bit longer

However, if the teams below drop points on a couple of games it could be Sheffield Wed at home as long as we beat Derby and Hull

 

[AOM]

We're already up

 

[marrrkjay_ccfc]

Ipswich not playing Good Friday - If we were to beat Derby we would go 14pts clear of them so we would in effect need to maintain that gap Easter Monday to win promotion against Sheffield Wednesday?

If we beat Derby, Hull and then Sheff Wed we would be on 89 after 42 games.
If Ipswich lose to both Birmingham and Norwich they would be on 69 after 40 games.
That's 20 point lead with 6 games to go for Ipswich. They can't catch us.

We would need Millwall to drop points from one of their next 2 games for us to secure promotion against Sheff Wed as well as the above to happen.

 

[Ade]

A win against Sheffield Wed would confirm promotion if the following happens:

We beat Derby and Hull.

Middlesbrough draw with Millwall on Good Friday and then fail to beat Swansea on Easter Monday.

We'd have 89pts.

Millwall max 88pts.

Middlesbrough max 88pts.

 

[Matt Grimes' Beard]

If we beat Derby, Hull and then Sheff Wed we would be on 89 after 42 games.
If Ipswich lose to both Birmingham and Norwich they would be on 69 after 40 games.
That's 20 point lead with 6 games to go for Ipswich. They can't catch us.

We would need Millwall to drop points from one of their next 2 games for us to secure promotion against Sheff Wed as well as the above to happen.

Inexplicably, Ipswich Norwich is a 3pm Kick off so would not be confirmed until after we have all gone home.

 

[Hincha]

Makes sense - If we were to beat Derby, then Ipswich were to lose at home to Birmingham on Easter Monday and then we went and beat Hull later in the day then we would be home and dry as well surely?

I think it is possible that a win against Sheff Weds combined with Ipswich failing to take all 3 pts in the East Anglian Derby at Carrow Road at the same time could be the scenario

Can be confirmed by full-time against Wednesday if we beat Derby/Hull/Sheff W & 2 of these things happen:

- Ipswich fail to get more than 1 point against Blues/Norwich
- Boro fail to get more than 2 points against Millwall/Swansea
- Millwall fail to get 9 points against Boro/Norwich/West Brom (likely)

It feels unlikely

 

[Hincha]

Inexplicably, Ipswich Norwich is a 3pm Kick off so would not be confirmed until after we have all gone home.

Google has it as 12:30 ko same as us?

 

[alexccfc99]

Inexplicably, Ipswich Norwich is a 3pm Kick off so would not be confirmed until after we have all gone home.

It isn't, kicks off same time as us

 

[Ccfcisparks]

I’m still worried we may not make it

 

[marrrkjay_ccfc]

Either way 91 points mathematically secures promotion regardless of what others do. That's 11 more points.

Win our next 4 games and its done!