Underlying Stats

[skybluecam]

All caveated with the fact it's still very early so a small sample size, but:

We're currently 14th on xPts, with 3.35. Ahead of both Hull (18th) and Ipswich (17th).

We've accumulated 3.23 xG (scored 0) and allowed 4.50 xGA (conceded 5). We're 18th for xG but 8th for xGA.

We certainly don't look like the no-hopers some have us down as stats wise.

 

[stupot07]

If only games were played on xG and XPts

 

[stupot07]

Haha always makes me laugh when you get a

 

[skybluecam]

Haha always makes me laugh when you get a

you didn't really add anything

 

[stupot07]

you didn't really add anything

There was nothing to add, stats tell a story but the end of the day they don't win football matches.

 

[skybluecam]

There was nothing to add, stats tell a story but the end of the day they don't win football matches.

everyone already knows that

They do give you a better idea of how future matches might play out than just looking at previous results though. Which is the entire point.

 

[fernandopartridge]

If only games were played on xG and XPts

How original of you, not like you at all.

 

[stupot07]

everyone already knows that

They do give you a better idea of how future matches might play out than just looking at previous results though. Which is the entire point.

It really doesn't. Here's last seasons xPts table for the championship.

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

If its any consolation, we seem to have had a similar xStart to 22/23 - we made the play offs then.... Underlying numbers were ok, just didn't happen for us.

 

[Sky Blue Goblin]

Will add considering the two teams we’ve had away that’s pretty decent.

 

[skybluecam]

It really doesn't. Here's last seasons xPts table for the championship.

That’s not a proper xPts simulation.

 

[stupot07]

And here's from footy stats x PTS

 

[stupot07]

That’s not a proper xPts simulation.

No it's the xPts Vs the actual final table.

 

[stupot07]

And our xG and xGA per 90.

 

[mrtrench]

I really thought our priority in the transfer window was going to be a beast of a centre forward. One with similar playing attributes to Big T but was also clinical.

We didn't do that. And if we don't score many that's the reason IMO.

If I understand correctly, both Haji and Ellis will leave on frees next summer. This implies to me that we intended to sell them this summer, otherwise we would have extended them. That didn't happen. Perhaps that's why the beast didn't arrive: their sales were supposed to fund Denkey or whoever.

 

[skybluecam]

No it's the xPts Vs the actual final table.

No, they’re not calculating xPts properly. They’re just assigning a result to each game and giving 3, 1 or 0 points out.

A proper xPts simulation calculates the probability distribution of how many goals each team scores and then calculates the probability of each result and works expected points out from there. You could never get 9 xPts from 3 games using a proper sim.

 

[ccfc1234]

All caveated with the fact it's still very early so a small sample size, but:

We're currently 14th on xPts, with 3.35. Ahead of both Hull (18th) and Ipswich (17th).

We've accumulated 3.23 xG (scored 0) and allowed 4.50 xGA (conceded 5). We're 18th for xG but 8th for xGA.

We certainly don't look like the no-hopers some have us down as stats wise.

And we are improving

 

[Captain Dart]

It's far too early to worry about stuff like this a win and a draw will shoot us up the table.
As long as the team put in a performance it'll come good eventually.

 

[Flying Fokker]

It really doesn't. Here's last seasons xPts table for the championship.

Fancy getting promoted on 73 pts?

 

[Ccfcisparks]

I really thought our priority in the transfer window was going to be a beast of a centre forward. One with similar playing attributes to Big T but was also clinical.

We didn't do that. And if we don't score many that's the reason IMO.

If I understand correctly, both Haji and Ellis will leave on frees next summer. This implies to me that we intended to sell them this summer, otherwise we would have extended them. That didn't happen. Perhaps that's why the beast didn't arrive: their sales were supposed to fund Denkey or whoever.

Well we could never afford the beast of a centre forward you suggest.

Haji is not out of contract. I am a Denkey fan but he is no more proven to be a goalscorer in this league than Awoniyi, quite the opposite.

 

[DazzleTommyDazzle]

If I understand correctly, both Haji and Ellis will leave on frees next summer.

My understanding is that we have the option of another year on Haji.

 

[baldy]

It's far too early to worry about stuff like this a win and a draw will shoot us up the table.
As long as the team put in a performance it'll come good eventually.

Exactly - none of this XG dullard statty shit
Plus it's so boring to read

 

[Shannerz]

Plus it's so boring to read

It would be so much better if you had even the slightest iota of self-awareness.

 

[stupot07]

Exactly - none of this XG dullard statty shit
Plus it's so boring to read

It basically means we should have beaten Hull.

 

[Ccfcisparks]

Exactly - none of this XG dullard statty shit
Plus it's so boring to read

the only stat I care about is xPints on a matchday and xBirds on a matchday night

 

[Lamps]

There was nothing to add, stats tell a story but the end of the day they don't win football matches.

What it does is show those that don't see us as having a chance of staying up that we're not the worst side in the Prem, especially as we've had both Arsenal and Manchester City away.

Just like with the Prem yeam of the week. Thomas had the 3rd highest rating for the team and the best rating in defence. The Manchester City GK is also in the side. This also doesn't get us any points, but before the game who would have guessed if a GK from our game was in the team of the week that it wouldn't have been Rushworth.

We may be bottom but things are pointing in the right direction.

 

[Seymour_East]

It basically means we should have beaten Hull.

We don’t need it to know that!

 

[stupot07]

What it does is show those that don't see us as having a chance of staying up that we're not the worst side in the Prem, especially as we've had both Arsenal and Manchester City away.

Just like with the Prem yeam of the week. Thomas had the 3rd highest rating for the team and the best rating in defence. The Manchester City GK is also in the side. This also doesn't get us any points, but before the game who would have guessed if a GK from our game was in the team of the week that it wouldn't have been Rushworth.

We may be bottom but things are pointing in the right direction.

It's just 3 games, it's completely meaningless. However, I take a lot of positivity from the improved performance against Man City.

 

[PVA]

I think it pretty much backs up the eye test of the first three games.

Arsenal: didn't get anywhere near them, well deserved defeat
Hull: didn't create enough but overall the better team and on the balance of play should have been a draw, could have been a win
Man City: created enough to score, kept it fairly solid at the back, the width of Donnarumma's face from a point

Yes the actual result is the only thing that matters, but we probably should be on 2 points. We've looked better than 0 from 9.

 

[Lamps]

It's just 3 games, it's completely meaningless. However, I take a lot of positivity from the improved performance against Man City.

How about the 3 sides we've played so far take up the 3 top places in the table?

I know there's a lot of negativity about, but most of it isn't deserved. You say the stats against Manchester City are meaningless but then say you take a lot of positivity from it.

There won't be many sides that go to Manchester City and lose 1-0 when they have their GK in the team of the week. A great performance that shows we're going in the right direction.

 

[Cally Fedora]

Just had a look at all the relevant stats and had a real good dig around them. They reveal we played the champions away first game back and were outplayed. Had a classic “must win” and tried too hard v Hull and did better at Man City as we begin to acclimatise.

 

[procdoc]

There was nothing to add, stats tell a story but the end of the day they don't win football matches.

Is it tiring being so negative constantly?

 

[stupot07]

How about the 3 sides we've played so far take up the 3 top places in the table?

I know there's a lot of negativity about, but most of it isn't deserved. You say the stats against Manchester City are meaningless but then say you take a lot of positivity from it.

There won't be many sides that go to Manchester City and lose 1-0 when they have their GK in the team of the week. A great performance that shows we're going in the right direction.

I'm saying the overall xG xPts stats are meaningless after 3 games, but I'm saying the eye test of the performance against Man city was encouraging.

I think we all agree that the boys were brilliant on Saturday and we deserved a point from the game but xG stats would argue that Man City were deserved winners with an xG of 2.12 Vs 1.37.

 

[stupot07]

Is it tiring being so negative constantly?

A. No not really
b) I'm not constantly negative
C) how boring would this forum be if everyone was happy clappy and had the same opinions on everything.

 

[Lamps]

I'm saying the overall xG xPts stats are meaningless after 3 games, but I'm saying the eye test of the performance against Man city was encouraging.

I think we all agree that the boys were brilliant on Saturday and we deserved a point from the game but xG stats would argue that Man City were deserved winners with an xG of 2.12 Vs 1.37.

The use of xG isn't to say we're brilliant or anything like that. It's just to show we're getting into scoring positions.