Under the Bookies Radar: (1 Viewer)

[Brylowes]

Unusual for me but last night I thought I’d take a look at where we are at in the eyes of the bookies ‘and I was frankly amazed, they don’t seem to have an eye on our current results or form at all.

To win the league outright they’re offering 50/1 on us, they think 12 other teams are more likely winners.
For context they have Burnley 11/8 F, Sheffield Utd 5/2, Blackburn 16/1, QPR 40/1.
To get promoted we are 14/1
Burnley 2/5 F, Sheffield Utd 4/6, Blackburn 9/2, West Brom 8/1, QPR 8/1
And they favour 14 teams ahead of us.

Top 6 Finnish:
They offer 9/2 on us
Burnley 1/14 F, Sheffield Utd 1/8, Blackburn 1/1, Wesr Brom 3/1, QPR 9/4
And they fancy 14 other teams ahead of us in this field.
9/2 is a great price for top 6 finish imo, I think the only thing that could stop us doing it is a bad January transfer window.
Considering a serious wedge in this field but reckon I’ll have to be quick cos the bookies rarely get things wrong, I think they have here tho.

 

---

[Sick Boy]

Unusual for me but last night I thought I’d take a look at where we are at in the eyes of the bookies ‘and I was frankly amazed, they don’t seem to have an eye on our current results or form at all.

To win the league outright they’re offering 50/1 on us, they think 12 other teams are more likely winners.
For context they have Burnley 11/8 F, Sheffield Utd 5/2, Blackburn 16/1, QPR 40/1.
To get promoted we are 14/1
Burnley 2/5 F, Sheffield Utd 4/6, Blackburn 9/2, West Brom 8/1, QPR 8/1
And they favour 14 teams ahead of us.

Top 6 Finnish:
They offer 9/2 on us
Burnley 1/14 F, Sheffield Utd 1/8, Blackburn 1/1, Wesr Brom 3/1, QPR 9/4
And they fancy 14 other teams ahead of us in this field.
9/2 is a great price for top 6 finish imo, I think the only thing that could stop us doing it is a bad January transfer window.
Considering a serious wedge in this field but reckon I’ll have to be quick cos the bookies rarely get things wrong, I think they have here tho.

It’s probably about right, a lot depends on what happens in January.

 

[hill83]

Sounds about right to me really.

 

[PVA]

Perhaps they hadn't updated the outright odds after yesterday's matches when you looked last night, because I've just looked on Sky Bet now and they have us 9th favourite to win the league (at 50/1)

 

[Greggs]

He's not Finnish.

 

[hill83]

Perhaps they hadn't updated the outright odds after yesterday's odds when you looked last night, because I've just looked on Sky Bet now and they have us 9th favourite to win the league (at 50/1)

Sounds even righter

 

[Brylowes]

It’s probably about right, a lot depends on what happens in January.

I disagree.
A run of 22pts from 25
10 clean sheets in 13 games.
4 wins on the spin.
This is the type of form that usually stirs the bookie into action, our odds have barely moved.
Also the bookie won’t offer odds now that reflect any transfer business we may do in January.

 

[Sick Boy]

I disagree.
A run of 22pts from 25
10 clean sheets in 13 games.
4 wins on the spin.
This is the type of form that usually stirs the bookie into action, our odds have barely moved.
Also the bookie won’t offer odds now that reflect any transfer business we may do in January.

We’d need to sustain that form, which will be a factor in their odds. They’re probably factoring the lack of depth in the squad and the possibility of our top assets going in Jan.
I think the odds are about right - not sure about WBA though!

 

[fatso]

Unusual for me but last night I thought I’d take a look at where we are at in the eyes of the bookies ‘and I was frankly amazed, they don’t seem to have an eye on our current results or form at all.

To win the league outright they’re offering 50/1 on us, they think 12 other teams are more likely winners.
For context they have Burnley 11/8 F, Sheffield Utd 5/2, Blackburn 16/1, QPR 40/1.
To get promoted we are 14/1
Burnley 2/5 F, Sheffield Utd 4/6, Blackburn 9/2, West Brom 8/1, QPR 8/1
And they favour 14 teams ahead of us.

Top 6 Finnish:
They offer 9/2 on us
Burnley 1/14 F, Sheffield Utd 1/8, Blackburn 1/1, Wesr Brom 3/1, QPR 9/4
And they fancy 14 other teams ahead of us in this field.
9/2 is a great price for top 6 finish imo, I think the only thing that could stop us doing it is a bad January transfer window.
Considering a serious wedge in this field but reckon I’ll have to be quick cos the bookies rarely get things wrong, I think they have here tho.

If we loose Vik, either sold or injured, we are out of the running.

The bookies will react to the money being placed, so it's not them that dosnt rate us, it's the punters.
But you have to remember that many of the bets would of been placed early in the season when we were marooned at the bottom with off field issues.

 

[shmmeee]

Aren’t odds based on the bets they’ve had in? So is it our fault for not believing?

 

[Londonccfcfan]

Odds reflect an open league.

Top 4 is likely done and dusted between ex premier clubs and other likely teams.

Its anyones guess for that 5th/6th spot.

It would be great if we can maintain and consolidate between 8th to 12th. Till around Easter.

 

[Brylowes]

Seems I was onto something after all, without a single championship game being played our odds in all fields have now shortened, we were 50/1 for the league now 40/1, we were 14/1 to win promotion but we are now 8/1.
I ended up having a good wedge on the bet that stood out for me 9/2 on a top 6 finish, this has now shortened to 3/1 tho I believe 7/2 is available.
What with Doug King confirming no sales in January, I’m fairly confident tbh

 

[higgs]

Seems I was onto something after all, without a single championship game being played our odds in all fields have now shortened, we were 50/1 for the league now 40/1, we were 14/1 to win promotion but we are now 8/1.
I ended up having a good wedge on the bet that stood out for me 9/2 on a top 6 finish, this has now shortened to 3/1 tho I believe 7/2 is available.
What with Doug King confirming no sales in January, I’m fairly confident tbh

Had a good wedge on us being relegated looks a bit daft now

Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk

 

[Travs]

We can probably only afford one poor run of form if we are maintain a serious playoff challenge.

I just don't see us being consistent enough (or injury-free) to maintain a challenge right through.

 

[robbiekeane]

We’d need to sustain that form, which will be a factor in their odds. They’re probably factoring the lack of depth in the squad and the possibility of our top assets going in Jan.
I think the odds are about right - not sure about WBA though!

They’ve not factored anything in. The odds are based on the market

 

[pipkin73]

We can probably only afford one poor run of form if we are maintain a serious playoff challenge.

I just don't see us being consistent enough (or injury-free) to maintain a challenge right through.

IF DK puts the right money in in January, then we could buy squad depth so injuries would not matter so much unless to key players. Even then MR has always found away around it.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

We can probably only afford one poor run of form if we are maintain a serious playoff challenge.

I just don't see us being consistent enough (or injury-free) to maintain a challenge right through.

Come back strong in December and we’ll basically be in the same scenario as last January. Squad too small to sustain a top 6 challenge, will the powers that be support it being strengthened or force Robins to shuffle around free transfers if he’s lucky.

 

[slowpoke]

My bet his newbies if there are any will be loans

 

[itsabuzzard]

Had a good wedge on us being relegated looks a bit daft now

Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk

Don't throw that slip away just yet. If the King thing turns to shit, the big three get sold and MR decides he's had enough...

Sent from my MAR-LX1A using Tapatalk

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Don't throw that slip away just yet. If the King thing turns to shit, the big three get sold and MR decides he's had enough...

Sent from my MAR-LX1A using Tapatalk

Don’t apply for a role at the Samaritans

 

[BackRoomRummermill]

Good bet options there - as soon as we appear in the top 6 then they will drop massively

 

[clint van damme]

Had a good wedge on us being relegated looks a bit daft now

Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk

Just now?

 

[clint van damme]

Don't throw that slip away just yet. If the King thing turns to shit, the big three get sold and MR decides he's had enough...

Sent from my MAR-LX1A using Tapatalk

Welcome back Mr. Sunshine!

 

[itsabuzzard]

Welcome back Mr. Sunshine!

You're too kind. It doesn't pay to be too Pollyanna-ish.

Sent from my MAR-LX1A using Tapatalk