Trump is my favourite comedian of the year already (16 Viewers)

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SBT

Well-Known Member
SIR ERNIE said:
Biden's not going to have any say in it is he.
Newsom will be the Dem nomination and with his track record, that’s more good news for the GOP.
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I’d be amazed if Biden doesn’t run - the only thing stopping him is a serious medical episode, and it’s hard to say that’s likely in the next six or seven months. Newsom and the rest of the Democrats thinking of running have every incentive to sit this one out and try in 2028. There’s very little upside to breaking ranks, certainly not 12 months out.
 
Sky Blue Pete

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
SBT said:
I’d be amazed if Biden doesn’t run - the only thing stopping him is a serious medical episode, and it’s hard to say that’s likely in the next six or seven months. Newsom and the rest of the Democrats thinking of running have every incentive to sit this one out and try in 2028. There’s very little upside to breaking ranks, certainly not 12 months out.
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He should stand down
It’s madness really
 
Como

Como

Well-Known Member
SBT said:
I’d be amazed if Biden doesn’t run - the only thing stopping him is a serious medical episode, and it’s hard to say that’s likely in the next six or seven months. Newsom and the rest of the Democrats thinking of running have every incentive to sit this one out and try in 2028. There’s very little upside to breaking ranks, certainly not 12 months out.
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The only clear winner is Neither of the above. But that is not how the system works. I am not sure what it would take for Biden to be persuaded not to stand, just that it has not got to that point yet. There are polls like this and I assume if they become the norm that might be enough?



The best thing for the GOP is if the Dems are able to jail Trump. Best thing for the Dems is if Biden keels over, they somehow need to move the VP along as well as she is even lower in the polls.
 
skybluetony176

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
Como said:
The only clear winner is Neither of the above. But that is not how the system works. I am not sure what it would take for Biden to be persuaded not to stand, just that it has not got to that point yet. There are polls like this and I assume if they become the norm that might be enough?



The best thing for the GOP is if the Dems are able to jail Trump. Best thing for the Dems is if Biden keels over, they somehow need to move the VP along as well as she is even lower in the polls.
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If Trump gets jailed it won’t be because the Dems have done it, it will be because he’s finally been caught out and even a legal establishment heavily dominated by Republicans (largely because of Trump) can’t fudge the law of the land for him. It looks like his chickens are finally coming home to roost.
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
skybluetony176 said:
If Trump gets jailed it won’t be because the Dems have done it, it will be because he’s finally been caught out and even a legal establishment heavily dominated by Republicans (largely because of Trump) can’t fudge the law of the land for him. It looks like his chickens are finally coming home to roost.
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I think Comos underlying points are correct though. Trump needs to be jailed to avoid him being the republican candidate and something needs to happen to Biden (not death ideally) and Harris so democrats are forced to get someone else in the mix….ideally someone under 70.

Either one of those won’t just be bad for US but would be extremely concerning on a global level especially with so much going on
 
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
There is no way that Biden - the president of the United States! - is giving up the nomination because of some bad polls 12 full months ahead of the election. It’s fantasyland.

Trump is nailed on for the Republican nomination and it’s looking unlikely that any of his criminal trials will be wrapped up before election day, let alone the conventions. Even if he does go to prison (and I have serious doubts) then he can still run, and Republicans will love it.
 
Como

Como

Well-Known Member
Nobody likes Harris, she stood at the same time as Biden and got tiny numbers supporting her, I assume she got the nod partly as a tick box exercise and partly because nobody would want Biden standing down and her taking over. Sad but logical.

Anyway a total mess whichever way you look at it and quite what happens now is anyone's guess.
 
David O'Day

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
interesting results last night which point to the fact that if the republicans run on things like abortion bans and trupism then normal people will hold their noses and vote against them.
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
SBT said:
What do you think the US govt should do? I don’t think a Trump administration is going to care much about the deficit!
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Im not sure what either party can/will do, it’s out of control and unserviceable


Edit - when I say unserviceable, it obviously will be serviced, Id imagine ultimately by more printing of money….which will continue to be debase the value of the currency. Most other developed countries are in a similar boat.

It was a general/economic rather than political point
 
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fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
Annualised government debt interest payments have now reached $1trn

Interesting times
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Not really an issue for a sovereign currency issuer like the US. They can always pay the debt they just need to manage the residual inflationary impact.

It looks like they are given their inflation rate is relatively low and just above the long term target

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 
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CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge said:
Not really an issue for a sovereign currency issuer like the US. They can always pay the debt they just need to manage the residual inflationary impact.

It looks like they are given their inflation rate is relatively low and just above the long term target

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
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US obviously benefits from being a global reserve currency but the deficit and continued money printing can and will be an issue. You cannot keep printing more and more money without it ultimately losing its value. If you own assets which appreciate in value like property, stocks etc you might be fine, if you don’t….not so good. Inflation eats away at value of money, hitting the poorest hardest

Since Jan 2020 they reckon the cumulative affect of US inflation is around 19-24% depending on CPI or full inflation calculations. So unless you’ve got assets that appreciated by that during the same period and/or your wage has increased by that amount you’re worse off/lost a chunk of personal wealth

The only way of getting inflation back under control has been by increasing interest rates at fastest pace in recent memory and start of quantitive tightening. The full affects of which still haven’t been fully felt. US mortgage rate at 7.5-8% and the only reason the housing market hasn’t collapsed is nobody’s moving, limited housing supply and tight labour market which has kept people in employment. Who suffers the most from this ?….people who need to borrow money and in particular young people…how can they get on the housing market with inflated values and interest rates at those levels ?

Similar issues are being felt here and as mentioned above the full impact is yet to be felt.

ps if US has to start QE again at same rate without having inflation fully under control expect an even bigger shitshow
 
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Como

Como

Well-Known Member
This is not really a US sole issue but there is a massive amount of hidden debt in the system. Final salary schemes are rare in the Private sector but not in the Public sector and Politicians being what Politicians are have grossly underfunded, push the can down the road. Social Security ditto, somebody I know has an interesting issue of aged parents in UK and their Spouse in the US, what to do.

Will there be a gradual decline or a sudden bust, I have no idea.
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
Como said:
This is not really a US sole issue but there is a massive amount of hidden debt in the system. Final salary schemes are rare in the Private sector but not in the Public sector and Politicians being what Politicians are have grossly underfunded, push the can down the road. Social Security ditto, somebody I know has an interesting issue of aged parents in UK and their Spouse in the US, what to do.

Will there be a gradual decline or a sudden bust, I have no idea.
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Final salary schemes aren't a thing in the public sector anymore either, it's only those who have retired who have one.

(Pretty much like private sector!)
 
Terry_dactyl

Terry_dactyl

Well-Known Member
skybluetony176 said:
The chickens are coming home to roost

www.bbc.co.uk

Rudy Giuliani must pay more than $148m over false election claims

Donald Trump's former personal lawyer was sued by ex-poll workers he accused of vote tampering.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
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I think it’s been said before, they’re closing in around him. Picking off his associates first. It feels a bit like a race against time ie the next election.

In the mean time he’s doubling down on his fascist rhetoric.

www.theguardian.com

Trump tells rally immigrants are ‘poisoning the blood of our country’

In New Hampshire former president doubles down on phrase widely condemned for echoing white supremacist rhetoric
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
tisza

tisza

Well-Known Member
Terry_dactyl said:
I think it’s been said before, they’re closing in around him. Picking off his associates first. It feels a bit like a race against time ie the next election.

In the mean time he’s doubling down on his fascist rhetoric.

www.theguardian.com

Trump tells rally immigrants are ‘poisoning the blood of our country’

In New Hampshire former president doubles down on phrase widely condemned for echoing white supremacist rhetoric
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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going to be a dirty, vitriolic campaign
 
David O'Day

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
tisza said:
going to be a dirty, vitriolic campaign
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good as that is bad for him come the actual election

He needs independents to vote for him and the further right he gets the less of them will
 
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