The Plan (1 Viewer)

[dongonzalos]

It seems we don't know what SISU's long term plan is. So this is a thread for you to put your guesses in.

Mine.....

SISU know that it is not realistic to sell the club and sufficiently recoup their debt when it becomes crystallised. So selling the club isn't an option.
SISU either won't or can't invest the money in players to get the success that would allow the sale of the club at a reasonable level.
Legal action was the next point of call JR1 followed by JR2.
With the hope of getting compensation to them allow them to crystallise the debt.
However as this legal action drags on they have to keep the club alive as they don't want to crystallise the debt. Also I guess relegation to division 4 loss of academy status ect increases the level of the compensation claim.
So they just need to keep it going till the end of JR2. However they want it to cost nothing whilst they wait (breakeven)
I think Ryton will be sold for developing houses to help chip away at a bit of the debt.
I think we will rent a training facility and academy facility for as cheap possible. I think any academy players of value will be sold to maintain breakeven.
I think they will ask Wasps for a one year extension on the back of a public outcry at moving away again.
I think they will line up a temporary home for as cheap as possible.

So in my opinion the quicker JR2 happens the better for us.
How they handle it once that fails that's the worrying bit......
I think if they win, they will fold CCFC in order to increase the compensation claim.
Not sure what they will do when they lose.
(Just my opinion, welcome other theories)

 

---

[ajsccfc]

I believe they have a plan, but have no idea where they're going to get their hands on the balaclavas and shotguns.

 

[Nick]

I'd still be tempted to say keep ryton and carry on with jr2 but hand ccfc over.

Then crowd fund a training ground over time after a share at a uni for a while or something.

Id happily buy a square foot of a training ground or something like pompey did.

 

[hopesprings]

It seems we don't know what SISU's long term plan is. So this is a thread fircyou to put your guesses.

Mine.....

SISU know that it is not realistic to sell the club and sufficiently recoup their debt when it becomes crystallised. So selling the club isn't an option.
SISI either won't or can't invest the money in players to get the success that would allow the sale of the club at a reasonable level.
Legal action was the next point of call JR1 followed by JR2.
With the hope of getting compensation to them allow them to crytslusevthe debt.
However as this legal action drags on they have to keep the club alive as they don't want to crystallise the debt. Also I guess relegation to division 4 loss of academy status ect increases the level of the compensation claim.
So they just need to keep it going till the end of JR2. However they want it to cost nothing whilst they wait ( breakeven)
I think Ryton will be sold for developing houses to help chip away at a bit of the debt.
I think we will rent a training facility and academy facility for as cheap possible. I think any academy players of value will be sold to maintain breakeven.
I think they will ask Wasps for a one year extension on the back of a public outcry at moving away again.
I think they will line up a temporary home fir as cheap as possible.

So in my opinion the quicker JR2 happens the better for us.
How they handle it once that fails that's the worrying bit......
(Just my opinion, welcome other theories)

There really aren't too many other reasons for them continuing to be owners, all the more reason to get these types of thoughts in front of the ONLY people who can help and that is the Football league. Why on earth are they not asking what the plans are and insisting that those plans are made public knowledge. I am sure tha when the gave the golden share to Otium it was with comments of we will be watching the situation carefully!!

 

[ceetee]

It seems we don't know what SISU's long term plan is. So this is a thread fircyou to put your guesses.

Mine.....

SISU know that it is not realistic to sell the club and sufficiently recoup their debt when it becomes crystallised. So selling the club isn't an option.
SISI either won't or can't invest the money in players to get the success that would allow the sale of the club at a reasonable level.
Legal action was the next point of call JR1 followed by JR2.
With the hope of getting compensation to them allow them to crytslusevthe debt.
However as this legal action drags on they have to keep the club alive as they don't want to crystallise the debt. Also I guess relegation to division 4 loss of academy status ect increases the level of the compensation claim.
So they just need to keep it going till the end of JR2. However they want it to cost nothing whilst they wait ( breakeven)
I think Ryton will be sold for developing houses to help chip away at a bit of the debt.
I think we will rent a training facility and academy facility for as cheap possible. I think any academy players of value will be sold to maintain breakeven.
I think they will ask Wasps for a one year extension on the back of a public outcry at moving away again.
I think they will line up a temporary home fir as cheap as possible.

So in my opinion the quicker JR2 happens the better for us.
How they handle it once that fails that's the worrying bit......
(Just my opinion, welcome other theories)

None of us can know their detailed plan , if they have one, but I think you are broadly correct.

 

[dongonzalos]

I'd still be tempted to say keep ryton and carry on with jr2 but hand ccfc over.

Then crowd fund a training ground over time after a share at a uni for a while or something.

Id happily buy a square foot of a training ground or something like pompey did.

Hand CCFC over?
Do you mean to the trust?

 

[Ashdown]

It seems we don't know what SISU's long term plan is. So this is a thread for you to put your guesses in.

Mine.....

SISU know that it is not realistic to sell the club and sufficiently recoup their debt when it becomes crystallised. So selling the club isn't an option.
SISU. either won't or can't invest the money in players to get the success that would allow the sale of the club at a reasonable level.
Legal action was the next point of call JR1 followed by JR2.
With the hope of getting compensation to them allow them to crystallise the debt.
However as this legal action drags on they have to keep the club alive as they don't want to crystallise the debt. Also I guess relegation to division 4 loss of academy status ect increases the level of the compensation claim.
So they just need to keep it going till the end of JR2. However they want it to cost nothing whilst they wait (breakeven)
I think Ryton will be sold for developing houses to help chip away at a bit of the debt.
I think we will rent a training facility and academy facility for as cheap possible. I think any academy players of value will be sold to maintain breakeven.
I think they will ask Wasps for a one year extension on the back of a public outcry at moving away again.
I think they will line up a temporary home for as cheap as possible.

So in my opinion the quicker JR2 happens the better for us.
How they handle it once that fails that's the worrying bit......
I think if they win, they will fold CCFC in order to increase the compensation claim.
Not sure what they will do when they lose.
(Just my opinion, welcome other theories)

I think you are bang on with almost all of that !
Thing is what fans in their right mind are going to buy into that prognosis ?

 

[Captain Dart]

It seems we don't know what SISU's long term plan is. So this is a thread for you to put your guesses in.

Mine.....

SISU know that it is not realistic to sell the club and sufficiently recoup their debt when it becomes crystallised. So selling the club isn't an option.
SISU either won't or can't invest the money in players to get the success that would allow the sale of the club at a reasonable level.
Legal action was the next point of call JR1 followed by JR2.
With the hope of getting compensation to them allow them to crystallise the debt.
However as this legal action drags on they have to keep the club alive as they don't want to crystallise the debt. Also I guess relegation to division 4 loss of academy status ect increases the level of the compensation claim.
So they just need to keep it going till the end of JR2. However they want it to cost nothing whilst they wait (breakeven)
I think Ryton will be sold for developing houses to help chip away at a bit of the debt.
I think we will rent a training facility and academy facility for as cheap possible. I think any academy players of value will be sold to maintain breakeven.
I think they will ask Wasps for a one year extension on the back of a public outcry at moving away again.
I think they will line up a temporary home for as cheap as possible.

So in my opinion the quicker JR2 happens the better for us.
How they handle it once that fails that's the worrying bit......
I think if they win, they will fold CCFC in order to increase the compensation claim.
Not sure what they will do when they lose.
(Just my opinion, welcome other theories)

Whatever their plan is it has NOTHING to do with football.

 

[eastwoodsdustman]

I think that they're playing for time now. Hoping Wasps bond scheme goes tits up which its got to do soon enough and then they'll make another move on the Ricoh. JR2 is being pushed to restrict Wasps when the bond scheme goes pop I've been told.
As for the football team, That will take a back seat whilst they play the waiting game for the ground.

 

[ohitsaidwalker king power]

scorched earth policy...
leave nothing behind....

 

[Ian1779]

I think their plan is simple.. they have lost a tank load, they don't want to admit it so let it sit there and pay for itself if indeed it does. Which is why NOPM and boycotting games is futile... it only harms CCFC. We are just a row of numbers on a balance sheet to them.

 

[Nick]

Hand CCFC over?
Do you mean to the trust?

Not even the trust, a better alternative which would need to be sorted out.

At that point, CCFC would be pretty much break even but would just need a training ground sorting.

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

No.....no...not doing it....I'm not doing this thread.....its already bringing me down......haven't you heard, its 1994 today....

....We're gonna sign dion dublin.....

Happy Friday folks.:cigar:

 

[dongonzalos]

I think their plan is simple.. they have lost a tank load, they don't want to admit it so let it sit there and pay for itself if indeed it does. Which is why NOPM and boycotting games is futile... it only harms CCFC. We are just a row of numbers on a balance sheet to them.

Even long term investment plans have an end date

 

[dongonzalos]

I think that they're playing for time now. Hoping Wasps bond scheme goes tits up which its got to do soon enough and then they'll make another move on the Ricoh. JR2 is being pushed to restrict Wasps when the bond scheme goes pop I've been told.
As for the football team, That will take a back seat whilst they play the waiting game for the ground.

Interesting alternative

 

[sky blue john]

I think that they're playing for time now. Hoping Wasps bond scheme goes tits up which its got to do soon enough and then they'll make another move on the Ricoh. JR2 is being pushed to restrict Wasps when the bond scheme goes pop I've been told.
As for the football team, That will take a back seat whilst they play the waiting game for the ground.

The only problem with this scenario is it would still require Sisu to purchase the stadium in some form. The past has shown Joy only wants it gifted and un-encumbered. She would not pay for it.

 

[skybluetony176]

I think that they're playing for time now. Hoping Wasps bond scheme goes tits up which its got to do soon enough and then they'll make another move on the Ricoh. JR2 is being pushed to restrict Wasps when the bond scheme goes pop I've been told.
As for the football team, That will take a back seat whilst they play the waiting game for the ground.

Oh god. I hope that isn't the plan as its essentially the same distress and wait for something to happen plan they used against ACL and look how that turned out. Fucked the club over good and proper.

 

[skybluetony176]

The only problem with this scenario is it would still require Sisu to purchase the stadium in some form. The past has shown Joy only wants it gifted and un-encumbered. She would not pay for it.

Also true. She was given the opportunity (waits for the inevitable they were never offered the same deal wasp's line bullshit) and chose, that word again, chose not to.

 

[Ian1779]

Even long term investment plans have an end date

You say that but what damage to their portfolio when it is active but not requiring investment of any sort. Simple line would be that if football club achieved success on pitch then potential value of investment could increase.

People forget that CCFC and Wasps owners are the same beast - albeit they appear to be better at it. Now at the moment everything appears to be rosy for the 'franchise scum' but things can change just as quickly.

They won't sell - so I'd rather they hand over control to someone else - sack off Tim and let a local chairman take the reins that we can get behind and support.

 

[Nick]

Also true. She was given the opportunity (waits for the inevitable they were never offered the same deal wasp's line bullshit) and chose, that word again, chose not to.

Has it been said it was wanted for £0?

 

[Monners]

No.....no...not doing it....I'm not doing this thread.....its already bringing me down......haven't you heard, its 1994 today....

....We're gonna sign dion dublin.....

Happy Friday folks.:cigar:

We lost 3-1 at home to Southampton on 24th September 1994 - my weeding day. Dublin scored, and it was the game where Bruce Grobbelaar supposedly was paid to fix (turned out to be bollocks of course)

 

[skybluetony176]

Has it been said it was wanted for £0?

We'll never know what if anything SISU was willing to pay. They were given the opportunity to bid and declined. It doesn't sound like they wanted at all considering that.

 

[italiahorse]

It seems we don't know what SISU's long term plan is. So this is a thread for you to put your guesses in.

Mine.....

SISU know that it is not realistic to sell the club and sufficiently recoup their debt when it becomes crystallised. So selling the club isn't an option.
SISU either won't or can't invest the money in players to get the success that would allow the sale of the club at a reasonable level.
Legal action was the next point of call JR1 followed by JR2.
With the hope of getting compensation to them allow them to crystallise the debt.
However as this legal action drags on they have to keep the club alive as they don't want to crystallise the debt. Also I guess relegation to division 4 loss of academy status ect increases the level of the compensation claim.
So they just need to keep it going till the end of JR2. However they want it to cost nothing whilst they wait (breakeven)
I think Ryton will be sold for developing houses to help chip away at a bit of the debt.
I think we will rent a training facility and academy facility for as cheap possible. I think any academy players of value will be sold to maintain breakeven.
I think they will ask Wasps for a one year extension on the back of a public outcry at moving away again.
I think they will line up a temporary home for as cheap as possible.

So in my opinion the quicker JR2 happens the better for us.
How they handle it once that fails that's the worrying bit......
I think if they win, they will fold CCFC in order to increase the compensation claim.
Not sure what they will do when they lose.
(Just my opinion, welcome other theories)

Basically agree with the exception that I think any judge will throw out any compensation claim on the basis it's self inflicted.

It all stems from moving out of the Ricoh when they had not pursued all the alternatives. .
- i.e. Staying there but making a contribution of a 'fair' rent during this period. They cut there costs there by closing the shop and relocating to Ryton.
Like any debt situation if you are making a contribution it is better than making no contribution whatsoever.

Up to now it has been seen as leaving was a leverage to get the stadium under Sisu conditions, A miscalculation based on the fact that no one else would be interested in it.
I can't see this changing so at some point Sisu will throw us to the wind.

 

[italiahorse]

I think that they're playing for time now. Hoping Wasps bond scheme goes tits up which its got to do soon enough and then they'll make another move on the Ricoh. JR2 is being pushed to restrict Wasps when the bond scheme goes pop I've been told.
As for the football team, That will take a back seat whilst they play the waiting game for the ground.

So the plan would be to wait for Wasps to go bust, then continue on with the original plan to get the stadium ?
Again requiring a move out of Coventry waiting for ACL to fold.
Are there people out there that actually believe this is the way forward ?

 

[trevelfarandwide]

scorched earth policy...
leave nothing behind....

Scorched Earth, Fire Sale, I definitely concur.

CCFC is a burden to them, through their own transgressions and failed strategies no less, so it's recoup, sell, strip and manipulate till they squeeze every penny they can out of our club.

Like I mentioned elsewhere, we can expect the academy to vanish within 4 months too, so what little hope we have is diminishing inch by inch.

Criminals, the fucking lot of them.

 

[Pete in Portugal]

Just posted this on the Accounts thread, but it really belongs here:

Sisu appear to be intent on cutting their losses by realising the value of the last few remaining assets - the young players plus Ryton - plus the gamble of getting compensation from JR2.

Then they will either find a buyer, or more likely, put the club into administration with the debts to Sisu and Arvo intact. The timecale is unknown, but at the moment, the end of next season looks a strong possibility. In the meantime, they will continue to cut costs in an attempt to break even. The slow death of the club will therefore continue and fans will continue to vote with their feet and with their wallets.

P.S. As a private hedge fund, it's inconceivable that Sisu do not have an exit strategy.

 

[dongonzalos]

Basically agree with the exception that I think any judge will throw out any compensation claim on the basis it's self inflicted.

It all stems from moving out of the Ricoh when they had not pursued all the alternatives. .
- i.e. Staying there but making a contribution of a 'fair' rent during this period. They cut there costs there by closing the shop and relocating to Ryton.
Like any debt situation if you are making a contribution it is better than making no contribution whatsoever.

Up to now it has been seen as leaving was a leverage to get the stadium under Sisu conditions, A miscalculation based on the fact that no one else would be interested in it.
I can't see this changing so at some point Sisu will throw us to the wind.

I personally do not think they will win let alone get compensation if they did.
I just think that is the last throw of the dice and is their plan.

 

[st john]

None of this explains why they didn't capitalise of offers for Stevenson, Willis, Haynes etc. in January (assuming the bids / interest was genuine)

 

[Nick]

None of this explains why they didn't capitalise of offers for Stevenson, Willis, Haynes etc. in January (assuming the bids / interest was genuine)

That still confuses me.

Surely the value goes down after a relegation?

 

[dongonzalos]

None of this explains why they didn't capitalise of offers for Stevenson, Willis, Haynes etc. in January (assuming the bids / interest was genuine)

Did they think they could get better offers, which did not materialise. It's also seems that relegation wasn't really an option.
Personally I would have took the money and bought a striker.
Willis and Stevenson wouldn't have kept us up. A striker and a goalkeeper would have done.

 

[Super Graham Withey]

SISU's plan is to exit CCFC at a point when it is convenient for them to crystalise the loss on their investment in CCFC. Until then they will attempt to run the club on a break even basis.

 

[eastwoodsdustman]

So the plan would be to wait for Wasps to go bust, then continue on with the original plan to get the stadium ?
Again requiring a move out of Coventry waiting for ACL to fold.
Are there people out there that actually believe this is the way forward ?

Only people who think its the way forward are the ones who implement it, Who knows any more? Even if it does work, Sisu will have zero good will from fans so I doubt it'd take the club any further forward anyhow.

 

[italiahorse]

Only people who think its the way forward are the ones who implement it, Who knows any more? Even if it does work, Sisu will have zero good will from fans so I doubt it'd take the club any further forward anyhow.

Could CCFC in L2 run the stadium at a profit ?
I assume if Wasps fail CCFC would certainly fail.

 

[oucho]

I'd still be tempted to say keep ryton and carry on with jr2 but hand ccfc over.

They won't let go for CCFC before the outcome of JR2 is known.

This is because by "letting go" of the club, they would have to write down £40m+ worth of debt owed to CCFC to various SISU companies.

At present, those loans not only exists as very substantial ASSETS on the various company balance sheets, but the (mostly) notional income from interests payments gives those companies paper revenue which adds to their value (and may even be tax-deductible, for all I know).

The moment SISU leave (assuming the new owner doesn't take on the debt or pay £40m for the club), those balance sheet ASSETS disappear from the SISU balance sheet.

Accepting the OP assumption that CCFC will not simply repay its debts by trading out of them (a reasonable assumption, I think we all agree), the only way to get the money back for the club is to win compensation in JR2, settle this against their own accounts once the cash has been received, and THEN divest CCFC as a much lower "haircut" write down than they would if they did so before the JR compensation comes through.

On this basis, the club need to win JR2 compo before divesting the club. The OP's analysis looks spot on to me, except I doubt they would fold CCFC (they do not want the resulting massive notoriety and wouldn't be inclined to do so).


Of course, the big problem for them appears to be that JR2 is a hopeless cause with very little chance of success....still, that never stopped them pursuing JR1 , which always looked to be a long shot, although that JR1 looked positively promising compared with the prospects for JR2.

 

[italiahorse]

SISU's plan is to exit CCFC at a point when it is convenient for them to crystalise the loss on their investment in CCFC. Until then they will attempt to run the club on a break even basis.

Break even appears to mean not competing in the league we are in.