The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (52 Viewers)

[Grendel]

A Brexiteer Tory PM would probably split their party even more. But, then again, the party looks like it will split pretty badly if May gets lured into remaining in the CU. That wouldn’t bother me much though.

Both Labour and Conservative are treading on thin ice and a wrong move from either damages their party and their electoral chances. It’s a high stakes game of chicken.

Corbyn is done for. He will soon be replaced by a Blair clone and normal service will be resumed

 

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[clint van damme]

Corbyn is done for. He will soon be replaced by a Blair clone and normal service will be resumed

It's inevitable.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

Corbyn is done for. He will soon be replaced by a Blair clone and normal service will be resumed

You said pretty similar before the last election. You're bound to be right eventually!

 

[Grendel]

You said pretty similar before the last election. You're bound to be right eventually!

Despite Corbyn over achieving last time he still failed and if you believe in hard stats May is the most popular PM for a generation

The fact he can’t command a lead at all in polls that will give him even a sniff of power shows he has failed

 

[Sick Boy]

Despite Corbyn over achieving last time he still failed and if you believe in hard stats May is the most popular PM for a generation

The fact he can’t command a lead at all in polls that will give him even a sniff of power shows he has failed

That’s one way to spin it, May effectively failed too then

 

[Grendel]

That’s one way to spin it, May effectively failed too then

The fact is Corbyn is dead in the water. Soon we will see someone like Umamna - who of course says he went to a tough Brixton school (but forgets to say it wasn’t for him and he quickly was sent to an independent) or Thornberry (who hilariously weeps about living with in poverty with her mother without mentioning her Uber rich father)

Even with the state of the present government he makes no headway

 

[clint van damme]

That’s one way to spin it, May effectively failed too then

May has lurched from one disaster to another since her days as home Secretary and between lifting the control order on the Manchester bomber and slashing police numbers has a hell of a lot of blood on her hands.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

That’s one way to spin it, May effectively failed too then

He knows full well the way our system is set up, it's as much to do with momentum (not the Corbyn support group!). Hence why Blair could win a third election comfortably in seat terms, despite a relatively poor share of the vote.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

Even with the state of the present government he makes no headway

Just like last time... until an election, where he was able to communicate his message relatively effectively, despite the press trying to convey he was all a load of leftie nonsense.

The time to judge is at an election. tbh I probably agree with you as the Tories will have a new leader, and they'll be a breath of fresh air (as leaders inevitably are until we find out they're as useless as the last one!) and sweep to power, regardless as to whether they're a child killer or not.

 

[Captain Dart]

If Corbyn were electable he would be 10 to 20 points ahead in the polls at this stage in the election cycle. I suspect Yvette will be challenging sometime soon, she seems to be positioning herself as the safe and responsible choice.

Having said that Brexit is making any predictions practically impossible to make. Strange times indeed.

As for Boris he is never getting anywhere close to power. My opinion is that the next Tory leader will be someone younger like Raab or Mercer.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Despite Corbyn over achieving last time he still failed and if you believe in hard stats May is the most popular PM for a generation

The fact he can’t command a lead at all in polls that will give him even a sniff of power shows he has failed

Frankly, the Labour Party is unlikely to be able to form a majority Government until it regains most of the seats it lost in Scotland. The party consistently had 40+ seats in Scotland before 2015 to 7 seats in 2017.

That fact doesn’t change whoever is leader of the Labour Party from whichever wing. Frankly, the Labour needs to go after the SNP the most.

To put it into perspective, some analysis reckons Labour would get 280 (may need updating) odd seats in a GE, with 3 seats in Scotland (SNP expected to gain 4 off Labour). This is just a guesstimate, obviously, but if you take this at face value, if Labour regained seats in Scotland that’s nearly a Parliamentary majority.

It’s actually staggering to me that no Labour politician from either wing of the Party has actually seriously talked about this. At present, the best outcome for the Labour Party is to form a minority government or coalition. A majority without Scottish seats would take a miracle.

 

[Grendel]

Just like last time... until an election, where he was able to communicate his message relatively effectively, despite the press trying to convey he was all a load of leftie nonsense.

The time to judge is at an election. tbh I probably agree with you as the Tories will have a new leader, and they'll be a breath of fresh air (as leaders inevitably are until we find out they're as useless as the last one!) and sweep to power, regardless as to whether they're a child killer or not.

Corbyn is an old fashioned politician who relishes audiences and engaging with the public. The press were right to point out his past though as he was an enemy of the state

The fact is though he was contesting against a robotic creature who had to be programmed before speaking and in the glare of the public was found out. Cameron would have buried him and the Tories won’t make the same mistake again

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

If Corbyn were electable he would be 10 to 20 points ahead in the polls at this stage in the election cycle. I suspect Yvette will be challenging sometime soon, she seems to be positioning herself as the safe and responsible choice.

Having said that Brexit is making any predictions practically impossible to make. Strange times indeed.

As for Boris he is never getting anywhere close to power. My opinion is that the next Tory leader will be someone younger like Raab or Mercer.

Yvette Cooper’s leadership bid in 2015 was terrible. Her big idea for Britain was for a ‘more feminist society’ whilst arguing Corbyn presented ‘old solutions to old problems’. With quite literally zero concrete policy ideas. It was a farce and she represents the Blairite/Brownite Old Guard, once a formidable electoral force, but they’ve been routed nationally and internally in the Labour Party — 2015 was their Waterloo.

Generally, I like Corbyn, the next leader needs to have a bit more credibility because there are a lot of people who absolutely dislike him. My preference would probably be Clive Lewis, somewhere between the centre-left, and left of the party and his background as a vet and pro-trident stance means he’s immune to being soft on defence. He also campaigns for a ‘progressive alliance’ which is probably Labour’s best chance to win an election.

 

[Captain Dart]

Frankly, the Labour Party is unlikely to be able to form a majority Government until it regains most of the seats it lost in Scotland. The party consistently had 40+ seats in Scotland before 2015 to 7 seats in 2017.

That fact doesn’t change whoever is leader of the Labour Party from whichever wing. Frankly, the Labour needs to go after the SNP the most.

To put it into perspective, some analysis reckons Labour would get 280 (may need updating) odd seats in a GE, with 3 seats in Scotland (SNP expected to gain 4 off Labour). This is just a guesstimate, obviously, but if you take this at face value, if Labour regained seats in Scotland that’s nearly a Parliamentary majority.

It’s actually staggering to me that no Labour politician from either wing of the Party has actually seriously talked about this. At present, the best outcome for the Labour Party is to form a minority government or coalition. A majority without Scottish seats would take a miracle.

Brilliant isn't it Labour brought in Scottish devolution and screwed their chances of forming a government.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Brilliant isn't it Labour brought in Scottish devolution and screwed their chances of forming a government.

It’s a catch-22, they probably would’ve been punished electorally had they not back devolution. The result has definitely dented Labour’s chances — to lose 40 seats in single GE was devastating.

 

[Sick Boy]

If Corbyn were electable he would be 10 to 20 points ahead in the polls at this stage in the election cycle. I suspect Yvette will be challenging sometime soon, she seems to be positioning herself as the safe and responsible choice.

Having said that Brexit is making any predictions practically impossible to make. Strange times indeed.

As for Boris he is never getting anywhere close to power. My opinion is that the next Tory leader will be someone younger like Raab or Mercer.

Raab? Seriously? The man who admitted he hadn’t understood the importance of the Dover to Calais route?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Corbyn is an old fashioned politician who relishes audiences and engaging with the public. The press were right to point out his past though as he was an enemy of the state

The fact is though he was contesting against a robotic creature who had to be programmed before speaking and in the glare of the public was found out. Cameron would have buried him and the Tories won’t make the same mistake again

That’s a moot point because Cameron wasn’t running against Corbyn and May is still PM and any other GE this year will probably be May v Corbyn.

If we’re objective here, the Labour Party went into the 2017 GE with some popular policies. May would probably frame another GE around the single issue of her Brexit Deal and probably end up performing badly again if Labour plays its cards right. Corbyn has more or less launched his campaign and his emphasis is not on Brexit — but the ‘system’ which fails people.

Would it work? Who knows.

 

[Grendel]

That’s a moot point because Cameron wasn’t running against Corbyn and May is still PM and any other GE this year will probably be May v Corbyn.

If we’re objective here, the Labour Party went into the 2017 GE with some popular policies. May would probably frame another GE around the single issue of her Brexit Deal and probably end up performing badly again if Labour plays its cards right. Corbyn has more or less launched his campaign and his emphasis is not on Brexit — but the ‘system’ which fails people.

Would it work? Who knows.

You are far from objective - if Labour went with popular policies by your own logic so did the Tories as they recorded the highest share of a popular vote for many years

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

You are far from objective - if Labour went with popular policies by your own logic so did the Tories as they recorded the highest share of a popular vote for many years

I’m not without biases, no one is completely free from that. Public opinion regularly polls in favour of higher taxation on the highest earners and is generally in favour of nationalising the railways (even among Tory voters) and utilities. Objectively, they are popular policies among part of the electorate.

Making up about 20% in the polls should just be shrugged off then shouldn’t they. How else could Labour have closed the gap? The last time Labour got 40% of the vote they got 355 seats in 2005.

The Tories increased their vote share to 43%, Labour got 400+ seats with that % in 1997. But, the reality is that they lost 30 odd seats in England which was mitigated partly by their best performance in a long time in Scotland. Had it not been for a fantastic performance by the Scottish Conservatives, the Tories would be in big trouble. That’s the success story of the 2017 election. Objectively, the Tories weren’t as popular as they were in 2015 — there’s no spinning that fact.

Detailed polling on PO on nationalisation v privatisation in 2017. To summarise, the public are pro-nationalisation of a lot of industries.

Nationalisation vs privatisation: the public view | YouGov

 

[Grendel]

I’m not without biases, no one is completely free from that. Public opinion regularly polls in favour of higher taxation on the highest earners and is generally in favour of nationalising the railways (even among Tory voters) and utilities. Objectively, they are popular policies among part of the electorate.

Making up about 20% in the polls should just be shrugged off then shouldn’t they. How else could Labour have closed the gap? The last time Labour got 40% of the vote they got 355 seats in 2005.

The Tories increased their vote share to 43%, Labour got 400+ seats with that % in 1997. But, the reality is that they lost 30 odd seats in England which was mitigated partly by their best performance in a long time in Scotland. Had it not been for a fantastic performance by the Scottish Conservatives, the Tories would be in big trouble. That’s the success story of the 2017 election. Objectively, the Tories weren’t as popular as they were in 2015 — there’s no spinning that fact.

Detailed polling on PO on nationalisation v privatisation in 2017. To summarise, the public are pro-nationalisation of a lot of industries.

Nationalisation vs privatisation: the public view | YouGov

If the public are pro nationalisation in most industries why are they also pro Eu?

 

[skybluetony176]

That’s brilliant!! Need to campaign for this it’s the only way to move this forward

My thinking also. I’m not keen (although I don’t wholly disagree with it) on a second in/out the EU referendum but I completely support a second referendum on the shape of Brexit as it considers all people’s opinion regardless of what they voted in the original referendum. Just because half the country voted out it doesn’t mean that the other half have forfeited the right to say what shape out should have. Simplest way to settle it is a referendum of yes or no to a customs union.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

If the public are pro nationalisation in most industries why are they also pro Eu?

That’s not really a relevant point but I’ll indulge you anyway.

France and Germany (plus, most EU members) have nationalised railways, so being in the EU doesn’t affect the countries ability to nationalise industries. It didn’t stop Britain nationalising certain banks, and didn’t stop France nationalising a shipyard owned by an Italian firm. The European Commission reckons about 3/4 of submissions for state aid were approved.

 

[Grendel]

That’s not really a relevant point but I’ll indulge you anyway.

France and Germany (plus, most EU members) have nationalised railways, so being in the EU doesn’t affect the countries ability to nationalise industries. It didn’t stop Britain nationalising certain banks, and didn’t stop France nationalising a shipyard owned by an Italian firm. The European Commission reckons about 3/4 of submissions for state aid were approved.

You hardly have to indulge me. Let’s be honest you’ve been like a little boy lost on most of this thread.

I see it’s only railways now.

It actually massively does prevent it and certainly prevent it being a cast iron certainty in a manifesto

You cannot nationalise anything without approval from the Eu and that it meets their anti monopoly legislation. You can spin like a top about technicality’s maybes could be’s and whatabouabes but that is a cast iron fact

 

[Grendel]

Oh and there is a clue to all this in your statement on bank nationalisation. Look into that and see why it was allowed and what it took to make this happen

 

[skybluetony176]

Luckily, we have our top man on this

Fox yet to seal no-deal trade agreements

Apparently it’s the other countries fault.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

You hardly have to indulge me. Let’s be honest you’ve been like a little boy lost on most of this thread.

I see it’s only railways now.

It actually massively does prevent it and certainly prevent it being a cast iron certainty in a manifesto

You cannot nationalise anything without approval from the Eu and that it meets their anti monopoly legislation. You can spin like a top about technicality’s maybes could be’s and whatabouabes but that is a cast iron fact

Typical juvenile mudslinging -- I'll take it as a compliment.

Firstly, the example I gave contained banks, shipyards as well as railways. Legally, Parliament can pass legislation to nationalise anything and the EU cannot physically stop that. The UK doesn't send an application to the EU to nationalise something, and it would seem the EU would probably badger the UK about it, but not do anything to force the UK to do anything. Parliament was still sovereign before Brexit and if the invoking of Article 50 wasn't proof of that, what else is?

Secondly, the point that people polled are simultaneously pro-nationalisation and pro-EU is irrelevant. Two separate issues and I have nothing do with how respondents answer, even if the outcomes are contradictory.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Luckily, we have our top man on this

Fox yet to seal no-deal trade agreements

Apparently it’s the other countries fault.

The easiest negotiations in history wasn’t it Liam? Wanker
Liam Fox: EU trade deal after Brexit should be 'easiest in history' to get

 

[Grendel]

Typical juvenile mudslinging -- I'll take it as a compliment.

Firstly, the example I gave contained banks, shipyards as well as railways. Legally, Parliament can pass legislation to nationalise anything and the EU cannot physically stop that. The UK doesn't send an application to the EU to nationalise something, and it would seem the EU would probably badger the UK about it, but not do anything to force the UK to do anything. Parliament was still sovereign before Brexit and if the invoking of Article 50 wasn't proof of that, what else is?

Secondly, the point that people polled are simultaneously pro-nationalisation and pro-EU is irrelevant. Two separate issues and I have nothing do with how respondents answer, even if the outcomes are contradictory.

So nationalisation can be done without EU consent? Really? I disagree. The Eu I think had significant input in the bank nationalisation and took several attempts at negotiation with the Eu before a solution was agreed.

I’m sure Martcov will correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that several private companies operate in Germany don’t they?

The last paragraph is hilarious - after all if the public are not informed they cannot have full blown nationalisation programmes without the EU consent they need to know this don’t they or they are as ignorant as those who think the Turks are coming aren’t they?

 

[martcov]

So nationalisation can be done without EU consent? Really? I disagree. The Eu I think had significant input in the bank nationalisation and took several attempts at negotiation with the Eu before a solution was agreed.

I’m sure Martcov will correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that several private companies operate in Germany don’t they?

The last paragraph is hilarious - after all if the public are not informed they cannot have full blown nationalisation programmes without the EU consent they need to know this don’t they or they are as ignorant as those who think the Turks are coming aren’t they?

Are you referring to the rail system? Metronom?

 

[martcov]

So nationalisation can be done without EU consent? Really? I disagree. The Eu I think had significant input in the bank nationalisation and took several attempts at negotiation with the Eu before a solution was agreed.

I’m sure Martcov will correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that several private companies operate in Germany don’t they?

The last paragraph is hilarious - after all if the public are not informed they cannot have full blown nationalisation programmes without the EU consent they need to know this don’t they or they are as ignorant as those who think the Turks are coming aren’t they?

Metronom Eisenbahngesellschaft – Wikipedia

Owner ca 75% State of Lower Saxony.

 

[Grendel]

Are you referring to the rail system? Metronom?

Oh hi. Are there any private rail operators that use the railway system in Germany?

 

[martcov]

The easiest negotiations in history wasn’t it Liam? Wanker
Liam Fox: EU trade deal after Brexit should be 'easiest in history' to get

No one is going to waste time dealing with a country which is no being governed at the moment.

 

[martcov]

Oh hi. Are there any private rail operators that use the railway system in Germany?

I just posted a link about Metronom. Majority owned by Lower Saxony.

 

[Grendel]

I just posted a link about Metronom. Majority owned by Lower Saxony.

So it’s not nationalised then?

 

[martcov]

Oh hi. Are there any private rail operators that use the railway system in Germany?

Liste deutscher Eisenbahngesellschaften – Wikipedia

I haven’t googled them all, but I suspect that the major shareholders are regional governments. I know Metronom because it’s trains use Hamburg Hbf.. and NOBI that used Kiel.