The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (27 Viewers)

martcov · Dec 18, 2018

Astute said:
Couldn't resist. Had to look at what story you were coming out with this time.

So what you are saying is that all countries are free to set their own budgets as long as they are within EU rules and regulations.

So they are not free to set their own budgets as they like. They must follow orders from the EU.

Italy can't afford to keep to the rules given to them by the EU. So what do you command that happens next?

Italy has to conform to the rules of the monetary union it is in. We are not in the monetary union, so it is obviously not a general EU requirement.

That is not a „story“ or an opinion, it as a fact.

Italy now wants to unilaterally break the rules of the monetary union to suit itself.

All countries in the monetary union have agreed to set their budgets within the parameters they have signed up to.

Countries have broken the rules before, but after consultations or have been called to account.

Italy has agreed to a specific requirement not to increase it’s massive debt beyond a small amount. The previous government had produced a budget which was agreed with the other parties. Now they want to ignore what was proposed by their own government.

Other countries such as the Netherlands have objected to Italy unilaterally changing their proposal.

Those are the facts. You twist it into the Italians are not allowed to set their own budget by the evil EU.

martcov · Dec 18, 2018

Sky Blue Pete said:
Sorry the comments were fair on my principled stand as to why I’m for remaining. It’s a dream a desire a human journey towards a better future for all and astute put the alternative

Personally I think they will make a compromise. The actual problem is sovereign debt and that remains. There is no quick solution. Common sense says reduce the debt and therefore the interest payments. The reality is that there is a huge difference of wealth and power between the people at the top and basically the rest of us.
If the people at the top are not going to pay off the sovereign debt because they can move their money to tax havens, that only leaves us and those poorer than us. We cannot and that is why there is discontent. It isn’t however just an Italian problem or an EU problem. The US is a leader in the West and is increasing it’s national debt to the benefit of the rich and corporations.

Leave is backed by the think tank/ lobbyists and partly by American money. Our senior Conservative politicians give speeches to right wing organisations in the USA . Talk is of FTA with the USA. No way will reducing us to a depressed trading partner of the USA change the situation in the UK for the better. Increasing the Italian debt won’t help the Italians long term either, although I have sympathy for some of the proposals in the Italian budget and hope they can work out a compromise.

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 18, 2018

Grendel said:
There is zero chance of that happening

Astute said:
If it is a vote on May being fit for purpose she will win. If it is a vote on the Tory government I think the DUP will want to cling onto power. What is the chance of them having any say if there is another GE whatever the result?

To say anything has a 'zero chance' of happening is just a silly, silly thing to say. A no-confidence vote v government is unlikely to win before the vote of May's deal, but it's also not far fetched that a handful of Tory MPs may break ranks with the government.

The DUP aren't in power at all, it's a confidence and supply agreement in government, and that agreement is dead. They've said they are voting against May's deal and when it gets beat in Parliament, the government's position will be untenable. In that case, a GE and/or referendum becomes incredible likely.

Astute · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
To say anything has a 'zero chance' of happening is just a silly, silly thing to say. A no-confidence vote v government is unlikely to win before the vote of May's deal, but it's also not far fetched that a handful of Tory MPs may break ranks with the government.

The DUP aren't in power at all, it's a confidence and supply agreement in government, and that agreement is dead. They've said they are voting against May's deal and when it gets beat in Parliament, the government's position will be untenable. In that case, a GE and/or referendum becomes incredible likely.

So you think that a Tory would vote so we could have another GE? Do you think a Tory will vote to say the Tories are doing a bad job?

The DUP does have power. At this moment they have more power than Labour. The Tories won't listen to Labour. But they will suck up to the DUP.

Astute · Dec 18, 2018

martcov said:
You twist it into the Italians are not allowed to set their own budget by the evil EU.

Is Italy allowed to set their own budget?

No.

Why not?

Because the EU has set limits.

So why ist it that the EU has set a limit of 3% of GDP yet they want Italy to keep to 1.4%?

Ask Mart. He is the best person to come out with excuses for the EU.

Grendel · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
To say anything has a 'zero chance' of happening is just a silly, silly thing to say. A no-confidence vote v government is unlikely to win before the vote of May's deal, but it's also not far fetched that a handful of Tory MPs may break ranks with the government.

The DUP aren't in power at all, it's a confidence and supply agreement in government, and that agreement is dead. They've said they are voting against May's deal and when it gets beat in Parliament, the government's position will be untenable. In that case, a GE and/or referendum becomes incredible likely.

It’s nonsense as all Tories will vote with the government as will the UDP on this issue.

Also a defeat would not result in a general election

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 18, 2018

Astute said:
So you think that a Tory would vote so we could have another GE? Do you think a Tory will vote to say the Tories are doing a bad job?

The DUP does have power. At this moment they have more power than Labour. The Tories won't listen to Labour. But they will suck up to the DUP.

No, the DUP has influence not power. Big difference.

117 Tory MPs have no confidence Theresa May, so the idea that all of these MPs will remain loyal to her wouldn’t make a lot of sense. There are also Tory MPs who want a second referendum, and may see breaking ranks with the Government the only way to force that.

The question then becomes will there be enough Tory MPs willing to vote with the opposition to win a vote? Right now, this is pretty doubtful. However, a defeat in the Commons for May’s Brexit deal changes things drastically.

Minority governments are prone to defeats in the House of Commons.

Grendel · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
No, the DUP has influence not power. Big difference.

117 Tory MPs have no confidence Theresa May, so the idea that all of these MPs will remain loyal to her wouldn’t make a lot of sense. There are also Tory MPs who want a second referendum, and may see breaking ranks with the Government the only way to force that.

The question then becomes will there be enough Tory MPs willing to vote with the opposition to win a vote? Right now, this is pretty doubtful. However, a defeat in the Commons for May’s Brexit deal changes things drastically.

Minority governments are prone to defeats in the House of Commons.

Your lack of political understanding is telling. Even Rees Mogg has stated he would support May - also the no confidence vote on a sitting PM is meaningless and will not be voted on

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 18, 2018

Grendel said:
It’s nonsense as all Tories will vote with the government as will the UDP on this issue.

Also a defeat would not result in a general election

When a Government loses a vote of no confidence, the Government resigns and/or Parliament is dissolved by the monarch on the advise of the PM. Only in 1742 the PM has resigned after a vote of no confidence.

Historical precedence suggests a vote of no confidence almost definitely leads to a GE.

So, you’re wildly off the mark making assumptions with a lack knowledge of how Parliament actually works.

Motions of no confidence in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

Grendel · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
When a Government loses a vote of no confidence, the Government resigns and/or Parliament is dissolved by the monarch on the advise of the PM. Only in 1742 the PM has resigned after a vote of no confidence.

Historical precedence suggests a vote of no confidence almost definitely leads to a GE.

So, you’re wildly off the mark making assumptions with a lack knowledge of how Parliament actually works.

Motions of no confidence in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

You need a 67% majority in the commons to trigger a general election

martcov · Dec 18, 2018

Astute said:
Is Italy allowed to set their own budget?

No.

Why not?

Because the EU has set limits.

So why ist it that the EU has set a limit of 3% of GDP yet they want Italy to keep to 1.4%?

Ask Mart. He is the best person to come out with excuses for the EU.

The limit for new borrowing was set at 3% in the agreement.

The limit of sovereign debt was set at 60% of GDP ( if I recall correctly ) and the present GDP ratio is 160% and rising. The interest payments are more than the education budget.

Italy has agreed to hold the ratio at that. The Italian government agreed a modest rise in borrowing. The new government wants to break the agreement and increase the sovereign debt which could destabilise the monetary union. The other members have already lodged complaints.

Can you show me the excuse for the EU? The monetary union was signed up to by all Eurozone countries voluntarily.

Grendel · Dec 18, 2018

martcov said:
The limit for new borrowing was set at 3% in the agreement.

The limit of sovereign debt was set at 60% of GDP ( if I recall correctly ) and the present GDP ratio is 160% and rising. The interest payments are more than the education budget.

Italy has agreed to hold the ratio at that. The Italian government agreed a modest rise in borrowing. The new government wants to break the agreement and increase the sovereign debt which could destabilise the monetary union. The other members have already lodged complaints.

Can you show me the excuse for the EU? The monetary union was signed up to by all Eurozone countries voluntarily.

So in other words a sovereign parliament surrendered its sovereignty regarding budget setting

Thanks for confirming what we all knew.

Astute · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
No, the DUP has influence not power. Big difference.

117 Tory MPs have no confidence Theresa May, so the idea that all of these MPs will remain loyal to her wouldn’t make a lot of sense. There are also Tory MPs who want a second referendum, and may see breaking ranks with the Government the only way to force that.

The question then becomes will there be enough Tory MPs willing to vote with the opposition to win a vote? Right now, this is pretty doubtful. However, a defeat in the Commons for May’s Brexit deal changes things drastically.

Minority governments are prone to defeats in the House of Commons.

So the DUP influence gives them no power with the Tories?

Why did they bother joining with the Tories then?

skybluetony176 · Dec 18, 2018

Grendel said:
You need a 67% majority in the commons to trigger a general election

For the PM to be able to call an early general election. That’s not what’s bubbling here. If there’s a change of PM and the new PM can’t get a continuation of the confidence and supply agreement then the new leader can’t go to the queen and form a government. General election. If Labour can force a vote of no confidence in the government and win by the narrowest of margins. General Election.

The two thirds rule only applies when a sitting PM is calling an early GE of their own free will as I understand it.

skybluetony176 · Dec 18, 2018

Astute said:
So the DUP influence gives them no power with the Tories?

Why did they bother joining with the Tories then?

£10B

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 18, 2018

Grendel said:
You need a 67% majority in the commons to trigger a general election

There are two ways a GE can be called under the 2011 Fixed-terml Parliament. First, is if Parliament backs the PMs proposal by two-thirds, (not 75% as stated before you edited your post). Secondly, if the Government loses a vote of no confidence and no alternative government formed in 14 days. The latter only needs a parliamentary majority.

If the government loses a motion of no confidence, there will be another election. It’s convention that the Government is obliged to advise the monarch to dissolve Parliament (in more recent times, as opposed to resigning) if it loses the confidence of Parliament.

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 18, 2018

Grendel said:
Your lack of political understanding is telling. Even Rees Mogg has stated he would support May - also the no confidence vote on a sitting PM is meaningless and will not be voted on

Rees-Mogg also said the PM should go to Buckingham Palace and tender her reisgnation to the Queen in the immediate aftermath of the Tory vote of no confidence. Even if May won both motions, it still doesn’t change the reality that she faces a crushing defeat when Parliament votes on her deal.

You’re giving incomplete pictures of the political climate. It’s rather cheeky of you to suggest I ‘lack political understanding’. Quit the juvenile mudslinging because it’s all a bit silly.

Grendel · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
There are two ways a GE can be called under the 2011 Fixed-terml Parliament. First, is if Parliament backs the PMs proposal by two-thirds, (not 75% as stated before you edited your post). Secondly, if the Government loses a vote of no confidence and no alternative government formed in 14 days. The latter only needs a parliamentary majority.

If the government loses a motion of no confidence, there will be another election. It’s convention that the Government is obliged to advise the monarch to dissolve Parliament (in more recent times, as opposed to resigning) if it loses the confidence of Parliament.

I know the article you have got that from and tbe conclusion was it’s untested and not defined so you’ve drawn a conclusion from the opinion piece - there is no convention as the act was only law two parliaments ago.

Also as I’ve told you already every Tory will support May and the DUP have confirmed the same

Grendel · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Rees-Mogg also said the PM should go to Buckingham Palace and tender her reisgnation to the Queen in the immediate aftermath of the Tory vote of no confidence. Even if May won both motions, it still doesn’t change the reality that she faces a crushing defeat when Parliament votes on her deal.

You’re giving incomplete pictures of the political climate. It’s rather cheeky of you to suggest I ‘lack political understanding’. Quit the juvenile mudslinging because it’s all a bit silly.

He said he’d support her in a no confidence vote tabled by the opposition

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 18, 2018

Astute said:
So the DUP influence gives them no power with the Tories?

Why did they bother joining with the Tories then?

Don’t conflate influence and power. The DUP would have ‘power’ if it held Government posts in cabinet, which it doesn’t. As the Lib Dem’s did in 2010 when they entered into a formal coalition with the Tories.

They have influence, which was bought and paid for, but no obligations to back the government.

Grendel · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Don’t conflate influence and power. The DUP would have ‘power’ if it held Government posts in cabinet, which it doesn’t. As the Lib Dem’s did in 2010 when they entered into a formal coalition with the Tories.

They have influence, which was bought and paid for, but no obligations to back the government.

But they will in the scenario you have portrayed

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 18, 2018

Grendel said:
I know the article you have got that from and tbe conclusion was it’s untested and not defined so you’ve drawn a conclusion from the opinion piece - there is no convention as the act was only law two parliaments ago.

Also as I’ve told you already every Tory will support May and the DUP have confirmed the same

I stated that the opposition would lose a vote of no confidence before the vote was held on May’s deal. You do no not know the voting intention of every MP on either side of the aisle so you’re making a baseless claim.

Nope, it’s from the Parliament website, actually. Which lays out the key points from the legislation. Which you only quoted half of, and incorrectly in the first instance. You argued that an election can only be called if 67% of MPs voted for an election and presented that as the only way for a GE, which is not true. A vote of no confidence can trigger an election.

The Fixed-term Parliament Act of 2011 doesn’t overwrite the 276 years of history before it. Whereby, Governments resign/parliaments are dissolved following the loss of a vote of no confidence. The only amendment added from the act of 2011 was that there was 14 days to form a new government or an election is held.

MPs approve an early general election - News from Parliament

Grendel · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
I stated that the opposition would lose a vote of no confidence before the vote was held on May’s deal. You do no not know the voting intention of every MP on either side of the aisle so you’re making a baseless claim.

Nope, it’s from the Parliament website, actually. Which lays out the key points from the legislation. Which you only quoted half of, and incorrectly in the first instance. You argued that an election can only be called if 67% of MPs voted for an election and presented that as the only way for a GE, which is not true. A vote of no confidence can trigger an election.

The Fixed-term Parliament Act of 2011 doesn’t overwrite the 276 years of history before it. Whereby, Governments resign/parliaments are dissolved following the loss of a vote of no confidence. The only amendment added from the act of 2011 was that there was 14 days to form a new government or an election is held.

MPs approve an early general election - News from Parliament

Again it’s untested and if the government held firm unless the queen desolved parliament there is no election and that would require the queen to make political choices.

The second area other than the 67% is untried and without precedent

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 18, 2018

Grendel said:
Again it’s untested and if the government held firm unless the queen desolved parliament there is no election and that would require the queen to make political choices.

The second area other than the 67% is untried and without precedent

No it’s not. Every Government who’s lost a vote of no confidence since 1742 has resigned and a new government is appointed/elected. Every single time. Rees-Mogg May have made a humiliating U-turn, but he’s right that the government cannot continue if it loses the confidence of Parliament. Just to be clear, the opposition motions is against the PM, not the Government as of yet. The latter will most likely come after the vote on May’s deal.

It’s a parliamentary history older than the USA, the convention is pretty damn clear. The only difference is that there’s now 2 weeks for a new government to be formed. If you want to argue that a new government could be formed in that period, fine, so be it — it’s just v unlikely. Even a Tory-DUP formal coalition is v unlikely because the DUP won’t back the Government on May’s Brexit deal and other areas such as budgets. Meaning the other option is a rainbow coalition led by Labour. Again, unlikely because they’re pushing for a GE.

You can keep repeating yourself ad nauseam, but that doesn’t change traditions 276 years old. The ‘untried’ and ‘untested’ argument simply doesn’t work against the oldest parliamentary system in the world. Despite your best efforts.

Grendel · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
No it’s not. Every Government who’s lost a vote of no confidence since 1742 has resigned and a new government is appointed/elected. Every single time. Rees-Mogg May have made a humiliating U-turn, but he’s right that the government cannot continue if it loses the confidence of Parliament. Just to be clear, the opposition motions is against the PM, not the Government as of yet. The latter will most likely come after the vote on May’s deal.

It’s a parliamentary history older than the USA, the convention is pretty damn clear. The only difference is that there’s now 2 weeks for a new government to be formed. If you want to argue that a new government could be formed in that period, fine, so be it — it’s just v unlikely. Even a Tory-DUP formal coalition is v unlikely because the DUP won’t back the Government on May’s Brexit deal and other areas such as budgets. Meaning the other option is a rainbow coalition led by Labour. Again, unlikely because they’re pushing for a GE.

You can keep repeating yourself ad nauseam, but that doesn’t change traditions 276 years old. The ‘untried’ and ‘untested’ argument simply doesn’t work against the oldest parliamentary system in the world. Despite your best efforts.

The DUP have already confirmed they will back the government - this is like pulling teeth

Captain Dart · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Rees-Mogg also said the PM should go to Buckingham Palace and tender her reisgnation to the Queen in the immediate aftermath of the Tory vote of no confidence. Even if May won both motions, it still doesn’t change the reality that she faces a crushing defeat when Parliament votes on her deal.

You’re giving incomplete pictures of the political climate. It’s rather cheeky of you to suggest I ‘lack political understanding’. Quit the juvenile mudslinging because it’s all a bit silly.

I wouldn't be so sure of that.

Last week I thought it was gong to be a 2nd referendum now I think May is going to get her deal through.

Maybe a few more backhanders may be required, expect an emergency budget soon after the vote.

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 18, 2018

Grendel said:
The DUP have already confirmed they will back the government - this is like pulling teeth

So tell me, what happens when they vote down May’s deal? Which they’ve stated they will oppose.

Astute · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Don’t conflate influence and power. The DUP would have ‘power’ if it held Government posts in cabinet, which it doesn’t. As the Lib Dem’s did in 2010 when they entered into a formal coalition with the Tories.

They have influence, which was bought and paid for, but no obligations to back the government.

They hold power as if the Tories want their vote to push something through they would have to agree to it.

Just like they will back the Tories if it comes to a vote of confidence on the government. And just like every Tory MP will vote in favour of the Government. So they will win.

Or would you like to name a single Tory MP that would vote against their own party?

Astute · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
So tell me, what happens when they vote down May’s deal? Which they’ve stated they will oppose.

Voting for the PM is totally different to voting for the party.

Mucca Mad Boys · Dec 18, 2018

Astute said:
They hold power as if the Tories want their vote to push something through they would have to agree to it.

Just like they will back the Tories if it comes to a vote of confidence on the government. And just like every Tory MP will vote in favour of the Government. So they will win.

Or would you like to name a single Tory MP that would vote against their own party?

Astute said:
Voting for the PM is totally different to voting for the party.

So what happens when the Brexit deal gets voted down? Which, as it stands, will lose heavily.

Alan Dugdales Moustache · Dec 18, 2018

Captain Dart said:
I wouldn't be so sure of that.

Last week I thought it was gong to be a 2nd referendum now I think May is going to get her deal through.

Maybe a few more backhanders may be required, expect an emergency budget soon after the vote.

There's more chance of SISU buying the Ricoh Arena than there being a second referendum. We've moved on from that silly idea in the last few days. Samaritans anyone ?

Grendel · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
So tell me, what happens when they vote down May’s deal? Which they’ve stated they will oppose.

The government will declare an intention to leave with no deal I would guess

Alan Dugdales Moustache · Dec 18, 2018

Grendel said:
The government will declare an intention to leave with no deal I would guess

Imagine the carnage......

Astute · Dec 18, 2018

Mucca Mad Boys said:
So what happens when the Brexit deal gets voted down? Which, as it stands, will lose heavily.

How about going back to you saying about the government losing the vote when it is on lots of news outlets that they won't?

The Brexit deal that nobody likes? I have stated I don't know.

If May stalls enough until close to the leaving date they could have the choice of Mays deal or leave without a deal. Then which way would they vote?

martcov · Dec 18, 2018

Grendel said:
So in other words a sovereign parliament surrendered its sovereignty regarding budget setting

Thanks for confirming what we all knew.

No. Some still think the evil EU is dictating it’s will to the poor Italians. I have said all along that they are voluntarily in a monetary union and have agreed to it’s terms. Which, as you have just realised, means giving up a bit of sovereignty to be part of a multilateral agreement and to be subject to it’s rules.

The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (27 Viewers)

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