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The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (22 Viewers)

  • Thread starter jimmyhillsfanclub
  • Start date Jun 8, 2016
Forums New posts

As of right now, how are thinking of voting? In or out

  • Remain

    Votes: 23 37.1%
  • Leave

    Votes: 35 56.5%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 3 4.8%
  • Not registered or not intention to vote

    Votes: 1 1.6%

  • Total voters
    62
  • Poll closed Jun 15, 2016.
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M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,751
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
I guess we could do it like voting in a GE in FPTP. Usually the party that gets 30% of the vote from 30% of the population gets to form a government. So lets get all the option down at once - second referendum, May's deal and no deal - and then whichever gets the most MP's voting for it, that's what we do.
Click to expand...

As both are not popular with most voters, remain has to be on the table as an alternative.
 
M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,752
Grendel said:
I want Blair to lead the campaign with commandant in chief Campbell and tweedle dumb and tweedle dumber (aka Cleggy and Cameron) his sidekicks.

That should do the trick
Click to expand...

Apart from him having being expelled from Labour.
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,753
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
I'm not arguing that the Leave campaign was massively ambiguous and economical with the truth about what could and would be achievable. But it should've been set out as a clear two step process:
1. We leave the EU entirely and trade under WTO
2. After leaving we begin the process of negotiating new trade deals as a non-EU country.

That way at least this wrangling over pro and anti Brexit dividing the country for three years wouldn't have happened. We'd be out and that would be that.

Of all the people I know that voted leave there's no consensus between them of what they wanted. Some wanted to restrict freedom of movement (although ironically when pointed out this could make it their holidays abroad more awkward and expensive they weren't happy about it), others didn't because they work abroad. Some wanted no customs union, others did because it would affect their business. Some wanted to regain control of our laws despite not seeming to know exactly which ones they didn't want or which were EU driven and which weren't. I'm not sure most of the time.

That is why I favour a second referendum - purely to make the option completely and totally unambiguous.
Click to expand...

The problem is in the time trading on WTO many business would go bust, relocate or at the very least completely restructure their supply chains. They then might need to do the same once a deal is reached. WTO just isn’t a practical option.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Reactions: martcov
M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,754
Grendel said:
I want Blair to lead the campaign with commandant in chief Campbell and tweedle dumb and tweedle dumber (aka Cleggy and Cameron) his sidekicks.

That should do the trick
Click to expand...

Alastair Campbell expelled by Labour after voting for Lib Dems in protest at Brexit stance
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,755
martcov said:
Alastair Campbell expelled by Labour after voting for Lib Dems in protest at Brexit stance
Click to expand...
About bloody time.
 
Reactions: Kingokings204

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,756
martcov said:
Vote of confidence. Lab Lib SNP plus some older remainer Tories against the rest of the Tories and DUP. Bye bye Tories. GE and/or PV. Parliament is at an impasse, put the cards on the table and let the people decide on the Brexit we now can see versus remain.
Click to expand...

So let’s think this through (even though John McDonnell says that you are talking horseshit and this won’t happen)

Labour Party will not be able to call this motion until September

It’s not going to win it and any Tory Mp voting for it will be deselected and out of s Job - older ones? Peter bone, Bill Cash?

Even if it did then Corbyn will try to form a government and fail

Then a general election is scheduled

Oh we’ve already left
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,757
Grendel said:
You really are clueless - even the lefts favourite friend Owen Jones admires it’s the end of the road for labour - why would he say that?
Click to expand...
It’s only the end if they go full tilt remain.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,758
martcov said:
Apart from him having being expelled from Labour.
Click to expand...

So what - won’t stop him campaigning for his love of all things Brussels
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,759
Ian1779 said:
It’s only the end if they go full tilt remain.
Click to expand...

They say they will be supporting remain on the ballot and are pushing it to become official policy
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,760
martcov said:
As both are not popular with most voters, remain has to be on the table as an alternative.
Click to expand...

Spoken like a true German
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,761
martcov said:
As both are not popular with most voters, remain has to be on the table as an alternative.
Click to expand...

I was going to put that in too, but the furore of MP's voting for remain against the previous referendum results would just see the likes of Farage et al getting more traction. To get remain it would have to come from the people, hence the second referendum with remain and no deal as the options. (I would say remain, May's deal, no deal) but that would just lead to Brexiteers claiming that the ballot split the leave vote and favoured remain so isn't viable).

The other potential option is to get an idea of what the public want by putting all the different facets like customs union/freedom of movement etc on a sheet and saying to you want to keep or lose them so the government can actually approach the negotiations with an idea of exactly which bits the people most wanted to keep/lose. But in that scenario I reckon you'd end up with every single option being to keep them and thus we wouldn't actually want to leave any part at all. Plus it'd be pretty complicated to do.
 
Reactions: Grendel

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,762
Grendel said:
They say they will be supporting remain on the ballot and are pushing it to become official policy
Click to expand...

It’s a big mistake.
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,763
Ian1779 said:
It’s only the end if they go full tilt remain.
Click to expand...

There’s data that suggests lab lost 70% of their votes to pro remain parties so don’t be so sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
K

Kingokings204

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,764
martcov said:
Alastair Campbell expelled by Labour after voting for Lib Dems in protest at Brexit stance
Click to expand...

He was asking for it just like Heseltine was for the tories. These dinosaurs are so out of touch and the worst bit is they still they they are popular and liked. It’s worrying tbh.

Just like Blair, he has no idea when he pops his head up for backing remain he hurts the remain campaign massively. He thinks he is helping.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,765
djr8369 said:
There’s data that suggests lab lost 70% of their votes to pro remain parties so don’t be so sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Irrelevant as this isn’t a general election - labour would lose masses of seats in the north and will be finished
 
Reactions: Ian1779

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,766
If there was a general election the obvious thing from a Tory perspective to do is do s deal with Farage

Promise immediate exit from the Eu and of labour now side with remain get Farage to only put brexit candidates on key labour areas who want leave. Stand the Tory candidates down. Labour would get smashed in these seats

Boris Johnson would be s hopeless PM but would be a very good general election vote winner and there is every chance he’d get through
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,767
Grendel said:
If there was a general election the obvious thing from a Tory perspective to do is do s deal with Farage

Promise immediate exit from the Eu and of labour now side with remain get Farage to only put brexit candidates on key labour areas who want leave. Stand the Tory candidates down. Labour would get smashed in these seats

Boris Johnson would be s hopeless PM but would be a very good general election vote winner and there is every chance he’d get through
Click to expand...

Quite possibly how it will play out but the fallout from no deal will surely then destroy the Tories.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,768
djr8369 said:
There’s data that suggests lab lost 70% of their votes to pro remain parties so don’t be so sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Probably right... but you have to look at locations of those seats. The Labour leave vote is concentrated in the N of England. If Labour loses that they can’t make it up by floaty centrists from the Home Counties.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,769
djr8369 said:
Quite possibly how it will play out but the fallout from no deal will surely then destroy the Tories.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Businesses are more prepared to accept this than you’d believe. They may not want it but the general view is a resolution will be had

The negotiating strategy all along was totally wrong. The strategy should have been to prepare for leave first on the worst terms and not even speak to the Eu until then. Instead May is like some sales manager whose got some dealer support to offer her dealers. She’s told the maximum is 5 grand but get as low as you can

Every dealer May stumbles into she drops her trousers and hands the 5 grand over

The Eu knew under her they’d be safe, now not so. The tactics on both sides will change very quickly
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,770
Ian1779 said:
Probably right... but you have to look at locations of those seats. The Labour leave vote is concentrated in the N of England. If Labour loses that they can’t make it up by floaty centrists from the Home Counties.
Click to expand...

They’ll take some damage no doubt.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,771
Grendel said:
Businesses are more prepared to accept this than you’d believe. They may not want it but the general view is a resolution will be had

The negotiating strategy all along was totally wrong. The strategy should have been to prepare for leave first on the worst terms and not even speak to the Eu until then. Instead May is like some sales manager whose got some dealer support to offer her dealers. She’s told the maximum is 5 grand but get as low as you can

Every dealer May stumbles into she drops her trousers and hands the 5 grand over

The Eu knew under her they’d be safe, now not so. The tactics on both sides will change very quickly
Click to expand...

They could have done that if they hadn’t started the article 50 process so soon.

How prepared for no deal do you think business is and what are you basing it on?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,772
Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
I was going to put that in too, but the furore of MP's voting for remain against the previous referendum results would just see the likes of Farage et al getting more traction. To get remain it would have to come from the people, hence the second referendum with remain and no deal as the options. (I would say remain, May's deal, no deal) but that would just lead to Brexiteers claiming that the ballot split the leave vote and favoured remain so isn't viable).

The other potential option is to get an idea of what the public want by putting all the different facets like customs union/freedom of movement etc on a sheet and saying to you want to keep or lose them so the government can actually approach the negotiations with an idea of exactly which bits the people most wanted to keep/lose. But in that scenario I reckon you'd end up with every single option being to keep them and thus we wouldn't actually want to leave any part at all. Plus it'd be pretty complicated to do.
Click to expand...

It’s probably about right. The problem is people think they can rewrite history and the problem goes away. Win a second vote (call it a people’s vote and hope that sounds better) even by 0.1% and it goes away

It will never go away. As history tells you re writing history ends up with history repeating itself again and again

Once it was obvious there would be problems a second ballot with a series of leave options should have been presented

Acknowledge the result but acknowledge many clearly want close ties with the Eu. So Norway option Canada option etc. Have a long period of debate and the public vote it’s preferred choice - we will one day leave the Eu and the ways it’s going we are just going to fall out
 
Reactions: Ian1779 and djr8369

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,773
djr8369 said:
They could have done that if they hadn’t started the article 50 process so soon.

How prepared for no deal do you think business is and what are you basing it on?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I’m basing it on my own experience with the company I worked for
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,774
Grendel said:
I’m basing it on my own experience with the company I worked for
Click to expand...

Interestingly, so I am. Their verdict was it would cause huge expense and make the company unviable.

My worry (again based on where I work) is that companies are scared to public say what they think the consequences of no deal would be like as it’s labelled as scare mongering and they also don’t want to be seen as interfering in the public process.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Reactions: Deleted member 5849

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,775
djr8369 said:
Interestingly, so I am. Their verdict was it would cause huge expense and make the company unviable.

My worry (again based on where I work) is that companies are scared to public say what they think the consequences of no deal would be like as it’s labelled as scare mongering and they also don’t want to be seen as interfering in the public process.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

No company knows and if you are a non Eu exporter even in relatively short term the impact on currency would be positive

Companies should have been preparing but remember we’ve had crashes of immeasurable scale in the last which have caused damage but in the end the economy is big enough to self repair and as I say it’s not as if it’s going to be very long before a resolution is then found
 

SkyBlueDom26

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,776
martcov said:
Vote of confidence. Lab Lib SNP plus some older remainer Tories against the rest of the Tories and DUP. Bye bye Tories. GE and/or PV. Parliament is at an impasse, put the cards on the table and let the people decide on the Brexit we now can see versus remain.
Click to expand...
Leave would win by a bigger margin
 

SBAndy

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,777
Grendel said:
I’m basing it on my own experience with the company I worked for
Click to expand...

If I’m not mistaken that business had already gone down the route of moving some aspects of production outside the EU. That would obviously lead them to be better prepared than others. Think about all the SMEs and their lack of resources when thinking about tackling Brexit. It isn’t quite as easy as saying one’s prepared so they’re all prepared.
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,778
SkyBlueDom26 said:
Leave would win by a bigger margin
Click to expand...

I think Leave would win again... some remainers are oblivious to this...
 
Reactions: Kingokings204

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,779
djr8369 said:
The problem is in the time trading on WTO many business would go bust, relocate or at the very least completely restructure their supply chains. They then might need to do the same once a deal is reached. WTO just isn’t a practical option.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I agree entirely, but at least it would give a definitive set of rules we would be trading by and could focus some of those who are under the impression leave means "cherry pick the bits we want and get rid of the rest", especially those in the business world wanting Brexit of exactly what it is that they're voting for.
 

SkyBlueDom26

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,780
Ian1779 said:
I think Leave would win again... some remainers are oblivious to this...
Click to expand...
Remoaners**** They need to get a grip, embarrassing the way they go on

Would probably want a 3rd vote when they lose again
 
M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,781
Grendel said:
Spoken like a true German
Click to expand...

Because I’m speaking factually?
 
M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,782
SkyBlueDom26 said:
Remoaners**** They need to get a grip, embarrassing the way they go on

Would probably want a 3rd vote when they lose again
Click to expand...


Haha. Brexit is a Brexiteer mess. They voted for something they hadn’t agreed on beforehand and fully misunderstood the attitude of the EU, how the EU works and how much damage Brexit would do to the UK.
 
Reactions: Deleted member 5849
M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,783
SkyBlueDom26 said:
Leave would win by a bigger margin
Click to expand...

Well, let’s go ahead then. At least the argument that people didn’t know what they were voting for would be over.
 

SkyBlueDom26

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,784
martcov said:
Well, let’s go ahead then. At least the argument that people didn’t know what they were voting for would be over.
Click to expand...
Do ya honestly rekon remain would win? Not a chance
 
Reactions: Westendlad
M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • May 28, 2019
  • #36,785
Grendel said:
No company knows and if you are a non Eu exporter even in relatively short term the impact on currency would be positive

Companies should have been preparing but remember we’ve had crashes of immeasurable scale in the last which have caused damage but in the end the economy is big enough to self repair and as I say it’s not as if it’s going to be very long before a resolution is then found
Click to expand...

A pound collapse would be advantageous for some in the short term. But companies relying on imported parts in manufacturing would have to pay more for imports. The advantage would soon evaporate.

The assumption that the economy is big enough to survive in the end is probably right, but you have to endure self inflicted hardship in the meantime and there is no guarantee that the economy will be in the same place it would have been if you hadn’t had Brexit. The likelihood is that the prophesied trade deals will not be as advantageous as those we have and are working on through the EU as we will be a distressed trading partner. A poor negotiating position to start from.
 
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