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Round 4 : who do you want ? (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter Alan Dugdales Moustache
  • Start date Jan 6, 2018
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steve cooper

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #106
Nick said:
Not if they charge the same!-
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I don't know what you mean really, not sure how much they charged for Friday's game but here are their official ticket prices for the FA cup. http://www.manutd.com/pix/Emails/Files/2017/MEM081Prem-FACup-Pricing.pdf
Even at £10 per ticket they would pull in £740,000 gross
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #107
mrtrench said:
No, he's wrong.
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It's all about odds. Over time it will even out
 
S

skybluesam66

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #108
if things even out over time, we are due 7 top 6 finishes in succession
 
Reactions: Astute, Bugsy, Captain Dart and 1 other person

Ricketts

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #109
Usually when we win the cup we beat Bolton, Man U, Stoke, Leeds, Sheffield Wednesday and Spurs.

Bolton are out so I suppose Huddersfield as replacements.

But Man U at Old Trafford next please, secure the budget for the promotion push.
 
Reactions: mrtrench

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #110
steve82 said:
Your correct on one thing the law of averages point is to being drawn away however Peterborough are a side to avoid and have goals a plenty in them and disposed of villa at villa.

There are still plenty other L2 sides and L1 clubs below Peterborough in the league still in the cup.

Newport, Notts county, Yeovil. Carlise Mansfield and Stevenage have replays to get through too so are still in the hat. With MK Dons, Rochdale and Fleetwood who are narrowly in the hat too.
Click to expand...

In which case I would take any of those. Or even Posh as the Villa result was as statistically unlikely as us winning. A pointless thrashing away to a Prem club away is to be avoided, regardless of the pay day. A run to the 5th Round would be dandy for morale and a little money. For everyone concerned. Winning is contagious
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #111
It will probably be Rochdale away.
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #112
Gibbo said:
It's all about odds. Over time it will even out
Click to expand...

you're just as likely to be away 10 times out of 10 as you are to have 5 home and 5 away draws.
 

no_loyalty

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #113
It won't be Arsenal, just about to crash out at Forest
 

Alan Dugdales Moustache

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #114
steve cooper said:
I don't know what you mean really, not sure how much they charged for Friday's game but here are their official ticket prices for the FA cup. http://www.manutd.com/pix/Emails/Files/2017/MEM081Prem-FACup-Pricing.pdf
Even at £10 per ticket they would pull in £740,000 gross
Click to expand...
I don't think CCFC would see much of whatever we make, for obvious reasons.
 

mrtrench

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #115
Gibbo said:
It's all about odds. Over time it will even out
Click to expand...

That's true. It is all about odds and over time it is likely (but not certain) to even out. However that doesn't alter the probability of a home tie in the next round.
 
C

coop

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #116
Man United away just to make money and for MR to stuff it up his old team.But we will probably get Newport away and get knocked out.
 
S

Steve.B50

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #117
coop said:
Man United away just to make money and for MR to stuff it up his old team.But we will probably get Newport away and get knocked out.
Click to expand...

Man City away so I. can tick them off my list.
 
Reactions: Adge

cov4theprem

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #118
Any home tie, and keep the prices the same as the Stoke game so we don’t the trolls attending
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #119
Any team except a Championship side, which isn't that winnable or prestigious. Yeovil at home ideally.
 
Reactions: covcity4life

steve82

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #120
Grendel said:
It will probably be Rochdale away.
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Or Rochale for those who remember our last fa cup visit.
 
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Steve.B50

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #121
steve82 said:
Or Rochale for those who remember our last fa cup visit.
Click to expand...

But what a chip shop?
 
H

henry the wasp

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #122
Derby paid £45 a ticket and were allocated 5400 for man Utd. There were concessions on price available.
 

steve82

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #123
Steve.B50 said:
But what a chip shop?
Click to expand...

I'm gonna be honest you've lost me here... been trying to think but nothing.
 

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #124
mrtrench said:
That's true. It is all about odds and over time it is likely (but not certain) to even out. However that doesn't alter the probability of a home tie in the next round.
Click to expand...
Yep, its 50/50 or the laws of mathematics are in jeopardy.
 
Reactions: mrtrench
S

steve cooper

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #125
Alan Dugdales Moustache said:
I don't think CCFC would see much of whatever we make, for obvious reasons.
Click to expand...
I get what you are saying, this is MR's post-match transcript, according to the Telegraph. "It's a really proud day" - Mark Robins' post-match transcript

“I think if we can get another good draw away from home then that helps financially because it gets more interest in it, more supporters will show interest and it’s huge for the transfer market.
“For me to be able to compete in the transfer market is vital. I get that revenue and to get that the grounds need to be bigger. We’ve got to do that for the supporters.

So if we draw a big club such as Man U away, and we don't see any benefit of extra funds transfer-wise, then I guess MR could walk away as he seems confident he will get any funds generated from the cup run. I can't see him saying that unless it was properly agreed.
 

ovduk78

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #126
steve82 post: 1456859 said:
I'm gonna be honest you've lost me here... been trying to think but nothing.
Click to expand...
I think he was referring to the chip shop opposite the entrance to the away end, it is very good!!
 
Reactions: steve82

Otis

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #127
Was just thinking that Birmingham at home would tick all the right boxes.

Winnable
Would generate a lot of interest
And would produce a very healthy attendance.
 
Reactions: SkyBlueZack, no_loyalty, Modcons86 and 1 other person
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skybluesam66

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #128
clint van damme said:
you're just as likely to be away 10 times out of 10 as you are to have 5 home and 5 away draws.
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actually you are not

10 out of 10 = one in 1024 chance
5 home and 5 away = just over one in 4 chance
 

steve82

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #129
ovduk78 said:
I think he was referring to the chip shop opposite the entrance to the away end, it is very good!!
Click to expand...

Assumed it was something along them lines but wasn't sure if I was not recalling a bit of CCFC history there.
 

Sky Blue Harry H

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #130
clint van damme said:
you're just as likely to be away 10 times out of 10 as you are to have 5 home and 5 away draws.
Click to expand...

Not true....... many more combinations of five home and five away draws, whereas only 1 possibility in ...lots! of 10 home, or 10 away.

Sorry to be a saddo on the subject - someone who's an expert on probability can give a fuller explanation! (Thanks SB Sam !!)
 
Reactions: clint van damme and mrtrench

ceetee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #131
Never mind what I would like.
Guess who my Forest supporting Nottingham grandsons want?
 

Hobo

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #132
Otis said:
Was just thinking that Birmingham at home would tick all the right boxes.

Winnable
Would generate a lot of interest
And would produce a very healthy attendance.
Click to expand...

They got 7000 at home???
 

Sky Blue Harry H

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #133
Otis said:
Was just thinking that Birmingham at home would tick all the right boxes.

Winnable
Would generate a lot of interest
And would produce a very healthy attendance.
Click to expand...


Could we afford the police bill, though ?!?
 
Reactions: wingy

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #134
Sky Blue Harry H said:
Not true....... many more combinations of five home and five away draws, whereas only 1 possibility in ...lots! of 10 home, or 10 away.

Sorry to be a saddo on the subject - someone who's an expert on probability can give a fuller explanation! (Thanks SB Sam !!)
Click to expand...

any combination from 10 draws, whether 10 homes, 10 aways, 5 homes 5 aways, 4 homes 6 aways has exactly the same mathematical chance of being drawn though I may be wrong @mrtrench will be able to confirm!
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #135
steve cooper said:
Man United away. They got a crowd of almost 74000 against Derby on friday. 45% of that would be very nice. (plus the winner's prize money)
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Man Utd have something like 55K season ticket holders and its a condition of having a season ticket that you have to buy a ticket for home cup games so that would be a lovely pay day.
 
Reactions: birminghamskyblue and steve cooper
O

oscillatewildly

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #136
Don't really 'want' them but as I predicted Forest (A) for the 3rd Rd, I'l stick with that for the 4th Rd.
 

tigersb

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #137
Yeovil away probably
 
O

oscillatewildly

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #138
tigersb said:
Yeovil away probably
Click to expand...
I think you'll find that's 'possibly' not 'probably'. Then again, you could be right and I wrong. Probably. Trenchie, over to you.
 
Reactions: tigersb

Sky_Blue_Daz

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 7, 2018
  • #139
Spurs at Wembley
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 8, 2018
  • #140
clint van damme said:
any combination from 10 draws, whether 10 homes, 10 aways, 5 homes 5 aways, 4 homes 6 aways has exactly the same mathematical chance of being drawn though I may be wrong @mrtrench will be able to confirm!
Click to expand...

No, for ten of one sort it has to be AAAAAAAAAA whereas a mix could be for example AHAHAHAHAH or HAHAHAHAHA or HHAAHHAAHA or AAAHHHAAHH or all kinds of sequences. So there’s more possible mixes than straights meaning a straight is less likely to occur.
 
Reactions: clint van damme and mrtrench
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