JimmyHillsbeard
Well-Known Member
whenever Labour have won a Westminster majority they have secured Scotland - but they’ve won England and Wales too. They have never been put in power by Scottish seats.
Labour would’ve won without Scotland in 97, 2001 and 2005.
It’s not the SNP making Labour unelectable.
The old saying about the “average British voter” is that they want a “hang the pedos and fund the NHS Party”, to break that down it’s basically: immigration controls, tough sentencing on crime with a well funded police force, tough on anti social behaviour, tough on benefit cheats, and probably these days “less woke bollocks”. Also probably not hammering drivers though I think maybe less so these days as people generally get the need for climate action.
Think Blair’s “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime”, think ASBOs, Browns “British jobs for British people”, FB memes about homeless veterans and OAPs needing looking after ahead of recent immigrants. Your average Sun campaign “back our boys and crush the criminal scum” type stuff.
Blair was pretty close socially but IMO further right than most want economically. I think he could’ve been a lot more left wing but in hindsight he was it was just he paid for it in a right wing way (PFI) rather than sensible left wing economics.
The left however have put themselves in a corner where anything short of open borders, close the prisons and ACAB makes you right wing filth and that’s a million miles away from your average voter.
Labour would’ve won without Scotland in 97, 2001 and 2005.
It’s not the SNP making Labour unelectable.
Would make it easier though particularly as in the years you refer to the Tories were a non entity there as opposed to being the opposition party they are now.
Best bet is reduce the majority next election, let it struggle because backbenchers then have more influence (see Major, May), and take advantage at the election after.This shows the scale of the task - a 10% swing to have a 1 seat majority and including a significant number in Scotland
https://fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Another-Mountain-to-Climb.pdf
This shows the scale of the task - a 10% swing to have a 1 seat majority and including a significant number in Scotland
https://fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Another-Mountain-to-Climb.pdf
- Corbyn received a huge percentage of the vote in 2017 and still was the minority party.
I can’t stand the woke stuff I must be honest. Mind you I also support wiping or vastly cutting the foreign aid budget so Christ knows what that would do to me at a CLP meeting
??
Labour received 40% of the UK vote, the Tories got 42.4%. It’s sensible that they received fewer seats than the Conservatives - the largest party but who also failed to get a majority.
Even in Scotland Labour received fewer votes 27.1% (vs 28.6%) and seats 6 (vs 12) than the Conservatives in 2017.
I really don't think they are...I can’t stand how the left/liberal types are embracing post-modernism ‘critical theory’.
Wokeness, ironically, is destroying parties on the left of the political spectrum. In the UK, the Tories win the working class vote, and Trump secures a 16% swing in favour of the Republicans from the lowest income bracket in 2016.
Yet, the same working class voters who swung for Trump viewed Bernie Sanders very favourably.
I’m generally centre-left, and I can’t stand how the left/liberal types are embracing post-modernism ‘critical theory’. As a scientist yourself, this must also drive you crazy.
In the UK, the Tories win the working class vote, and Trump secures a 16% swing in favour of the Republicans from the lowest income bracket in 2016.
Yet, the same working class voters who swung for Trump viewed Bernie Sanders very favourably.
Keir Starmer seems to be going full woke and it does nothing for me.
Really? That’s what you think? Really?
Aren’t most of the what-you-might-call- “woke”pissed off with him that he sacked RLB and he publicly celebrated Armed Forces day ?
Really? That’s what you think? Really?
Aren’t most of the what-you-might-call- “woke”pissed off with him that he sacked RLB and he publicly celebrated Armed Forces day ?
I do find the labour people on here reaction to him and total negativity strange
It isn't, it's an utter embarrassment. Labour is finished, Starmer is pathetic.
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you're working on the assumption that all Labour has to do is win back lost voters. But it also has to keep the ones it's got.
If there was an election tomorrow I'd have to think long and hard about voting for a Starmer government. The fact this country is going to hell in a hand cart under Johnson would probably swing it but it's hardly a ringing endorsement.
Pretty negative
Fair enough though I think the majority are willing to give him time.
The point is 40% is a huge share of the vote that even in itself will take a huge change in fortunes. Even with 16 seats in Scotland a huge 10% swing is required for a 1 seat majority
I agree with this point - this is what led it to its disastrous Brexit policy of 2019. Members do not necessarily correspond to voters.The problem labour has is it’s shaped policy wise by its members - members don’t win elections
The problem labour has is it’s shaped policy wise by its members - members don’t win elections
Labour’s campaign was inefficient. A core vote strategy piling up huge majorities in constituencies they already held (large swathes of Greater London, Manchester, Liverpool, Coventry). Very few seats were won from the Tories on narrow margins (Warwick and Leamington being one of the v few exceptions).
This was one of the far less mentioned things that came out of the leaked report. ‘Allegedly’ the people responsible for either shaping or delivering this channelled resources to seats where the party had comfortable majorities and kept it away from marginals that could have resulted in more seats switching hands.
I’m still confused by what you’re trying to say here. I think we are mostly in agreement.
Labour’s share in the vote in 2017 was relatively impressive - but still almost 3 percentage points lower than that received by a badly underperforming Prime Minister in the worst campaign anyone can remember. And even then Labour’s campaign was inefficient. A core vote strategy piling up huge majorities in constituencies they already held (large swathes of Greater London, Manchester, Liverpool, Coventry). Very few seats were won from the Tories on narrow margins (Warwick and Leamington being one of the v few exceptions).
In 2019 Labour fared even worse down to 32% of the vote while the Tories improved slightly to 44%.
They face a mammoth task to get back in - I think we agree on this. But it’s not insurmountable. Most people thought the Conservatives were in for another generation after the 1992 election. Then Black Wednesday robbed them of their reputation for economic competence. Labour worked hard to assume that mantle (I don’t think it was inevitable). if the Conservatives suffer a similar loss of public faith and Labour do make inroads into the voters that have not always voted for them in the recent past there is a clear chance of a labour majority at the next election.
it was a direct leadership strategy. Reconnecting with the core vote to show that Labour was more popular than it had been under New Labour. Look at where the leader visits were in 2017, Corbyn and Milne had direct sign off on that.
Didn’t you also say that policies don’t win elections?
The stated policies he ran on for election are pretty left, really.I do find the labour people on here reaction to him and total negativity strange
The stated policies he ran on for election are pretty left, really.
Left enough for me, anyway, and he has at least achieved based on merit. That's surely a good thing?
The stated policies he ran on for election are pretty left, really.
Left enough for me, anyway, and he has at least achieved based on merit. That's surely a good thing?
Not sure that's the best example, really. Agree with it or not, a policy akin to members' wishes would have been a clear and definable platform to run on. As it happened, the leader wasn't aligned with members on this issue, and what we ended up with was a massive fudge that was impossible to explain, and turned people off regardless of view.I agree with this point - this is what led it to its disastrous Brexit policy of 2019. Members do not necessarily correspond to voters.
Largely they don’t. Again most people don’t read manifestos in the end most are only engaged every five years.
Politics in the uk is like a duopoly and every 5th year you have yo take market share
Economic competence or perceived confidence is the one thing that wins elections
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