Points needed (2 Viewers)

[Robinshio]

so looking at the last 11 years - albeit a couple of years the numbers have been larger

91 points usually guarantees automatic (8 of 11 years) - 66 points needed (no team has got more than 90 and not got automatic)
75 usually guarantees play offs (8 of 11 years) 50 points needed


66 points over 35 games = Win 18 Draw 12 Lose 5 (winning around half of the games)
50 points over 35 games = Win 14 Draw 8 Lose 13 (Mid table form)

When you look at those numbers it seems very possible, and every time we can win in this current run will be crucial
More importantly when (if) we do lose, we cant let it knock the confidence

 

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[Brighton Sky Blue]

90 points the vast majority of the time is enough, even 83 was enough one season. Just keep taking it a game at a time, our goal difference is effectively worth a point on top.

 

[Briles]

Its the run over xmas that I think will determine the season.

Ipswich
Preston
Bristol
Southampton
Swansea
Ipswich again.

If we come away with 10 points or more from those then its On.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Its the run over xmas that I think will determine the season.

Ipswich
Preston
Bristol
Southampton
Swansea
Ipswich again olé olé, Ipswich again olé olé

If we come away with 10 points or more from those then its On.

You missed another game

 

[Gosb]

The average league position of those teams is 12th. Difficult to spot where the competition for promotion will come from.

 

[Briles]

The average league position of those teams is 12th. Difficult to spot where the competition for promotion will come from.

I'm not a fan of average league position stats. Fans of other clubs have used that to say why we are doing so well. Some of them started quoting it after 5 games .

Mind you we seem to playing a lot of teams below us recently

 

[sc1940]

Its the run over xmas that I think will determine the season.

Ipswich
Preston
Bristol
Southampton
Swansea
Ipswich again.

If we come away with 10 points or more from those then its On.

Boxing day against Swansea is game 23, half way through. After Watford & Sheff U, most of our games until then are against teams currently in or around the top 6, the only ones that aren't are Ipswich and Southampton. So a very difficult run of games. But even looking at it pessimistically I can see 6 wins and a couple of draws which would put us on 45 points and on target.

 

[Paul Anthony]

How you know you've been a fan of this club for far too long is when you open a thread with this title, expecting at least a joke about how many points needed to ensure we can't get relegated!

 

[Robinshio]

so looking at the last 11 years - albeit a couple of years the numbers have been larger

91 points usually guarantees automatic (8 of 11 years) - 66 points needed (no team has got more than 90 and not got automatic)
75 usually guarantees play offs (8 of 11 years) 50 points needed


66 points over 35 games = Win 18 Draw 12 Lose 5 (winning around half of the games)
50 points over 35 games = Win 14 Draw 8 Lose 13 (Mid table form)

When you look at those numbers it seems very possible, and every time we can win in this current run will be crucial
More importantly when (if) we do lose, we cant let it knock the confidence

Now 17/12/5 for autos 63 more points from 34
13/8/13 for play offs 47 more points from 34

 

[Robinshio]

Now 14/9/6 for autos 51 more points from 29 (winning less than half of our remaining games) takes us to 91 points
9/8/12 for play offs 35 more points from 29 (we can lose 3 more than we win and still comfortably make the play offs!!) takes us to 75 points

These numbers are worse case and it could be a couple of wins less in each case

 

[sc1940]

Now 14/9/6 for autos 51 more points from 29 (winning less than half of our remaining games) takes us to 91 points
9/8/12 for play offs 35 more points from 29 (we can lose 3 more than we win and still comfortably make the play offs!!) takes us to 75 points

These numbers are worse case and it could be a couple of wins less in each case

That's 1.75 ppg. Playoffs (using 72 points which has been enough in recent years) is relegation form1.1 ppg.
Whereas Southampton need 67 points from 29 games to reach 91 - 2.3 ppg and Ipswich need 64 from 30 = 2.1 ppg
I used those 2 as examples because many posters think they are the main threats.

 

[GC1976]

FA cup third round, bring back Collins, and any loanee who can’t play for their adopted club. Oggy on the bench with Frank as substitute, Benson and Hedges to start. That’s my feeling on the cup this year, points on the board only priority. #nearly50, available, free agent for FA cup, own goal specialist. Pannini sticker to follow.

 

[Mild-Mannered Janitor]

Think we will need 93 points for top 2 this year

 

[SkyBluePower]

Will be happy if in 10 games time ( even allowing for a bit of drop off) we have 60 points.

Think it just becomes a case then of ticking off the games until we do it.

 

[Robinshio]

Think we will need 93 points for top 2 this year

so with our GD you are expecting 2 teams to get to 94 points


Looking at the 3 nearest challengers + Southampton p p g needed for that

Middlesbrough Stoke 2.21 (equivalent to 101 point season)
Ipswich 2.23 (equivalent to 102 point season)
Southampton 2.41 (equivalent to 111 point season)

at a push Ipswich may get nearest , but none of the others are getting more than 87

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

so with our GD you are expecting 2 teams to get to 94 points


Looking at the 3 nearest challengers + Southampton p p g needed for that

Middlesbrough Stoke 2.21 (equivalent to 101 point season)
Ipswich 2.23 (equivalent to 102 point season)
Southampton 2.41 (equivalent to 111 point season)

at a push Ipswich may get nearest , but none of the others are getting more than 87

Last season we were at 1 PPG after 17 games, then sustained 1.8 PPG to end up in 5th. Stranger things have happened

 

[bigfatronssba]

Last season we were at 1 PPG after 17 games, then sustained 1.8 PPG to end up in 5th. Stranger things have happened

It would take two clubs at once to both have record breaking seasons

 

[skybluelee]

so with our GD you are expecting 2 teams to get to 94 points


Looking at the 3 nearest challengers + Southampton p p g needed for that

Middlesbrough Stoke 2.21 (equivalent to 101 point season)
Ipswich 2.23 (equivalent to 102 point season)
Southampton 2.41 (equivalent to 111 point season)

at a push Ipswich may get nearest , but none of the others are getting more than 87

I don't see anybody getting beyond 85 other than Ipswich. And us.

Talk of needing 93 is frankly ridiculous.

 

[Mild-Mannered Janitor]

I don't see anybody getting beyond 85 other than Ipswich. And us.

Talk of needing 93 is frankly ridiculous.

Maybe, I just want us to aim at that level and hope the parachute teams don't have runs like ours

 

[Flying Fokker]

Maybe, I just want us to aim at that level and hope the parachute teams don't have runs like ours

To me, every game is a must win game whether we are top or bottom. Years of conditioning. I never settle for a draw.

 

[CBS16]

90 points should wrap up promotion this year, maybe even 88. Our ppg is 2.31 at the moment, if we dropped to 1.72 we would still hit 90 points, and probably have a better GD than the others. We HAVE to take this chance and every win just makes it even easier and less pressure on us later on. PUSB it's our time