so looking at the last 11 years - albeit a couple of years the numbers have been larger
91 points usually guarantees automatic (8 of 11 years) - 66 points needed (no team has got more than 90 and not got automatic)
75 usually guarantees play offs (8 of 11 years) 50 points needed
66 points over 35 games = Win 18 Draw 12 Lose 5 (winning around half of the games)
50 points over 35 games = Win 14 Draw 8 Lose 13 (Mid table form)
When you look at those numbers it seems very possible, and every time we can win in this current run will be crucial
More importantly when (if) we do lose, we cant let it knock the confidence
90 points the vast majority of the time is enough, even 83 was enough one season. Just keep taking it a game at a time, our goal difference is effectively worth a point on top.
I'm not a fan of average league position stats. Fans of other clubs have used that to say why we are doing so well. Some of them started quoting it after 5 games .
Mind you we seem to playing a lot of teams below us recently
Boxing day against Swansea is game 23, half way through. After Watford & Sheff U, most of our games until then are against teams currently in or around the top 6, the only ones that aren't are Ipswich and Southampton. So a very difficult run of games. But even looking at it pessimistically I can see 6 wins and a couple of draws which would put us on 45 points and on target.
How you know you've been a fan of this club for far too long is when you open a thread with this title, expecting at least a joke about how many points needed to ensure we can't get relegated!