Looking at the “average” team in the league (somewhere between Ipswich and Swansea) they are getting 1.3 points per game. Even if we regressed back to the mean for the remainder of the season then we’d end up on 73 points which is going to be good for the playoffs most years. We would have to crash massively for us not to make the playoffs from this position.
The problem for the teams chasing us is that our points tally and performances match. We are by no means in a false position, so the hype is real for us. The xG table reckons Ipswich, Southampton will be our competition for automatics, followed by Blues, Blackburn and Watford - teams we've put to bed comfortably. You can add Millwall and QPR who are overperforming their league position but should still be top half based on metrics.
The early warnings are there that our results may slow down at home and you'd expect tactical tweaks to follow. We are missing our best player from last season and Haji hasn't scored for 3 (?) games now. So there's not a lot to worry about based on the data.
If we're top 2 by Game 20, the historical performances show a team top at this point will rarely finish below 3rd. December will be tough and it stands to reason that if we go into January in the automatic places, we'll be in a v good position to maintain that.
