Playoff or twist? (5 Viewers)

[SkyBlueSteve81]

Exactly.
We need to fuck the F.A. cup off as well this year, we dont need any distractions.

Doug will want a bit of a cup run to bring in some extra £ but the league should absolutely be our priority. Early rounds could be an opportunity to give the fringe players some good minutes, of course that depends on who we are drawn against.

I'd say go for top 2 in the league.

 

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[Mucca Mad Boys]

Looking at the “average” team in the league (somewhere between Ipswich and Swansea) they are getting 1.3 points per game. Even if we regressed back to the mean for the remainder of the season then we’d end up on 73 points which is going to be good for the playoffs most years. We would have to crash massively for us not to make the playoffs from this position.

The problem for the teams chasing us is that our points tally and performances match. We are by no means in a false position, so the hype is real for us. The xG table reckons Ipswich, Southampton will be our competition for automatics, followed by Blues, Blackburn and Watford - teams we've put to bed comfortably. You can add Millwall and QPR who are overperforming their league position but should still be top half based on metrics.

The early warnings are there that our results may slow down at home and you'd expect tactical tweaks to follow. We are missing our best player from last season and Haji hasn't scored for 3 (?) games now. So there's not a lot to worry about based on the data.

If we're top 2 by Game 20, the historical performances show a team top at this point will rarely finish below 3rd. December will be tough and it stands to reason that if we go into January in the automatic places, we'll be in a v good position to maintain that.

 

[alexccfc99]

Twist 110%... I made a thread earlier into the season, just after the Birmingham game iirc - Where I effectively said I would be gutted if we did not make a sustained assault on the Top 2, it come in for a little bit stick due to overconfidence but to be honest I feel like the last few weeks has reaffirmed my point

You will never see 3 more ordinary relegated Premier League sides in this day and age, one of which is in line for a points deduction and in Southampton's case they are just downright a poor side under their current regime

I will go as far as saying if we don't get over the line this season I give up ever seeing us in the Premier League - Everything has fallen into place for us this season to do it - It is over to us now

 

[Kingokings204]

I agree we must now top 2 and no I don’t care a jot if it’s second on goal difference. There is simply no better time to get promoted and avoid the playoffs .

we now own the ground which hasn’t even got much traction as the team are doing so well.

we have 3 very sub par relegated sides for the first time in many years and have all started slowly.

our team is full of good players and experienced at this level now. Continuity in the summer was bigger than signing another 3 players. We are a team and not individuals like leiceter.

sold out ST and sell outs every home match. The buzz has spread and fans are coming and backing us. Doug has backed us and with money in the pot should we need it in Jan.

Nothing in football in guaranteed we all know that. But we must start believing and when yes when we do lose some matches we stick together and not the usual hysterics.

 

[Skyblueweeman]

I don't just want us to go without the play offs.

I now want us to win the league.

Call it entitlement or whatever...we've got the tools to do it and after such a good start, that's what I'm hoping for.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

When you get a sniff of the pie and are first into the kitchen, do you wait to share it with the rest and guarantee a slice or do you go for the lot even at the risk of getting caught?

I'm a socialist, so I take a slice then leave the rest for everyone else to share.

 

[Bristol sky blue]

Twist 110%... I made a thread earlier into the season, just after the Birmingham game iirc - Where I effectively said I would be gutted if we did not make a sustained assault on the Top 2, it come in for a little bit stick due to overconfidence but to be honest I feel like the last few weeks has reaffirmed my point

You will never see 3 more ordinary relegated Premier League sides in this day and age, one of which is in line for a points deduction and in Southampton's case they are just downright a poor side under their current regime

I will go as far as saying if we don't get over the line this season I give up ever seeing us in the Premier League - Everything has fallen into place for us this season to do it - It is over to us now

Agree 100% apart from I don't think this will be our only opportunity to go up... but you are probably right to say this is our BEST opportunity...

 

[Bristol sky blue]

My real fear is that the PL somehow becomes a closed shop (which is what I reckon a lot of PL teams want) or that parachute payments suddenly cease the season we finally make it!!

 

[SeaSeeEffCee]

I’d be interested to know how many times a team whoever started as well as us have failed to get promoted in this division. We aren’t top by accident, we deserve it and we have been the best side in the league so far this season by some distance. There will be sticky patches and runs of bad form but I do really believe we can go up automatically this year.

 

[SBT]

The odds of us going up automatically are currently much higher than they would be for winning a playoff run. You’d be mad to pass it up, our odds are better than a coin flip right now!

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I’d be interested to know how many times a team whoever started as well as us have failed to get promoted in this division. We aren’t top by accident, we deserve it and we have been the best side in the league so far this season by some distance. There will be sticky patches and runs of bad form but I do really believe we can go up automatically this year.

The 21/22 season is a good comparison with the top 2 on identical records to this season after 12 games. Bournemouth had a rocky patch in November/December (including Todd Kane’s late equaliser) but got over it with some reinforcements in January.

I expect it will be similar for us.

 

[covboy9]

Buy vik and gus in jan and seal the deal

 

[alexccfc99]

I’d be interested to know how many times a team whoever started as well as us have failed to get promoted in this division. We aren’t top by accident, we deserve it and we have been the best side in the league so far this season by some distance. There will be sticky patches and runs of bad form but I do really believe we can go up automatically this year.

Just had a look at Championship tables from years gone by on this day (29/10)

If I am being honest - History is really in our favour, most of the sides who have been top on this day of the year in previous years have ended up promoted, most automatically

A few that haven't

Reading were unbeaten and top at this point in the 2020/21 season and they ended up finishing outside the play-offs - Albeit that season was slightly skewed as it started later due to to COVID and they were only 8 games in at this point (We actually were the first team to beat them, 3-2 at St. Ands)

Sheffield United were top at this stage in 2017 and didn't finish in the Top 6

Derby in 2014 lost the play off final

Watford in 2007 lost in the play-offs semis

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/

If anyone wants to have a play around with the table generator, you can do so on the above link^

 

[Tommo1993]

Twist 100%. My answer would be the same if I were a Charlton fan as there’s loads of time left for things to completely change for everyone.

 

[Skyblueweeman]

Just had a look at Championship tables from years gone by on this day (29/10)

If I am being honest - History is really in our favour, most of the sides who have been top on this day of the year in previous years have ended up promoted, most automatically

A few that haven't

Reading were unbeaten and top at this point in the 2020/21 season and they ended up finishing outside the play-offs - Albeit that season was slightly skewed as it started later due to to COVID and they were only 8 games in at this point (We actually were the first team to beat them, 3-2 at St. Ands)

Sheffield United were top at this stage in 2017 and didn't finish in the Top 6

Derby in 2014 lost the play off final

Watford in 2007 lost in the play-offs semis

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/

If anyone wants to have a play around with the table generator, you can do so on the above link^

@shmmeee put some good stats up on another thread, pretty much saying what you said above but with a bit more detail:

Do teams that are winning the championship after 12 games tend to get promoted?

I got chat GPT to tell me where teams that were top after 12 games for the last 8 seasons finished... 2017–18 — Wolves → Yes (automatic). 2018–19 — Sheffield United → Yes (automatic). 2019–20 — West Bromwich Albion → Yes (automatic). 2020–21 — Norwich City → Yes (champions). 2021–22 — AFC...

www.skybluestalk.co.uk

 

[Grendel]

I've had a lovely day, Jim... but let's go for the speedboat.

Or the Yugo

 

[alexccfc99]

@shmmeee put some good stats up on another thread, pretty much saying what you said above but with a bit more detail:

Do teams that are winning the championship after 12 games tend to get promoted?

I got chat GPT to tell me where teams that were top after 12 games for the last 8 seasons finished... 2017–18 — Wolves → Yes (automatic). 2018–19 — Sheffield United → Yes (automatic). 2019–20 — West Bromwich Albion → Yes (automatic). 2020–21 — Norwich City → Yes (champions). 2021–22 — AFC...

www.skybluestalk.co.uk

Fair enough, he has done that from 12 games in as opposed to on the actual date it is today so that is probably a better way of doing it

 

[shmmeee]

Fair enough, he has done that from 12 games in as opposed to on the actual date it is today so that is probably a better way of doing it

To be clear “he” here is Google Gemini. What I’ve checked looks legit tho