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New Labour Leader (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter shmmeee
  • Start date Dec 16, 2019
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shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #596
Ian1779 said:
And the factions will continue. The membership dynamic is completely at odds with the PLP dynamic. If the PLP win then the membership will disappear - and that’s the campaign arm of the party gone. If the membership win then the PLP will continue to just fight itself. I just can’t see anyone there right now that can bring both sides together.
Click to expand...

And who do you see as the PLP winning? The membership have the final say on the leader. Whoever wins it’s the memberships choice.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #597
shmmeee said:
And who do you see as the PLP winning? The membership have the final say on the leader. Whoever wins it’s the memberships choice.
Click to expand...

Dare I say that the Tory method of choosing the leader is a bit more effective?
 
Reactions: shmmeee and Deleted member 5849

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #598
shmmeee said:
And who do you see as the PLP winning? The membership have the final say on the leader. Whoever wins it’s the memberships choice.
Click to expand...

That’s true - but the membership got their choice the last 2 times and it didn’t stop a sizeable portion of people within the PLP actively undermining the leader both in 2017 and 2019. We can’t carry on like this or we won’t ever be able to unite. You only have to look at the ‘justification’ behind the attempt at ousting Corbyn in 2016.... he didnt campaign enough for Remain when actually his campaign presence/appearance was larger than most people that were on ‘Team Remain’

I suspect that the 2 highest performing candidates with the membership will be RLB and Starmer because their values still reflect the nature of the manifesto direction. If RLB wins for example Labour don’t perform well at local elections in May will they turn on her straight away? If Starmer wins and they don’t perform will it be because he’s an out of touch Londoner that doesn’t understand the ‘Labour heartlands’?
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #599
Ian1779 said:
That’s true - but the membership got their choice the last 2 times and it didn’t stop a sizeable portion of people within the PLP actively undermining the leader both in 2017 and 2019. We can’t carry on like this or we won’t ever be able to unite. You only have to look at the ‘justification’ behind the attempt at ousting Corbyn in 2016.... he didnt campaign enough for Remain when actually his campaign presence/appearance was larger than most people that were on ‘Team Remain’

I suspect that the 2 highest performing candidates with the membership will be RLB and Starmer because their values still reflect the nature of the manifesto direction. If RLB wins for example Labour don’t perform well at local elections in May will they turn on her straight away? If Starmer wins and they don’t perform will it be because he’s an out of touch Londoner that doesn’t understand the ‘Labour heartlands’?
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Boris Johnson couldn’t have less in common with ordinary people if he tried but he’s a master charlatan and bullshitter. Let’s be honest about it and go for the equivalent.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #600
I’m amazed how dire Long-Bailey is - she makes Duncan-Smith and his leadership look Churchillian - I don’t understand how you win this long drawn out thing it seems very complex but no one surely will seriously consider her
 
Reactions: SkyBlueDom26

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #601
Grendel said:
I’m amazed how dire Long-Bailey is - she makes Duncan-Smith and his leadership look Churchillian - I don’t understand how you win this long drawn out thing it seems very complex but no one surely will seriously consider her
Click to expand...

It’s been changed to try and get more Corbynite people onto the ballot, but basically there’s two nomination stages then a final ballot.

First you need 5% of the MPs/MEPs to nominate you, about 22 at the moment. Phillips, Starmer, Nandy, RLB and Thornberry managed that.

Then (this is the new bit) you need either a certain percentage of affiliates group like unions and socialist societies (based on size of membership so Unite means more than the Musicians Union or whatever) OR a certain percentage of CLPs to nominate you. This is the stage we are currently in. RLB will get Momentumite CLPs and left wing unions like Unite and Food Workers begins her for that. Phillips realises she was too right wing for the unions and too disliked by members and dropped out. Currently Starmer and Nandy are through on affiliate nominations alone, RLB will probably make it too, question marks over Thornberry.

Then it’s a vote by members with alternative vote so members rank their options, if no one gets over 50% they are eliminated and their second options redistributed. Repeat until someone’s over 50%.

Polling is suggesting it’s Starmer by a mile. RLB got lots of Momentumite first preferences but you need the soft left like Corbyn had and they don’t seem to be taking to her. As you say she’s pretty unimpressive and the wider field is more palatable to the soft left than it was when Corbyn won.
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #602
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Boris Johnson couldn’t have less in common with ordinary people if he tried but he’s a master charlatan and bullshitter. Let’s be honest about it and go for the equivalent.
Click to expand...
Ordinary people don't want/expect to have something in common with the leaders of political parties. They look for someone who seems to have a clear message and then they decide whether they can implement that message.

Johnson can "get away" with the bluster for now but will still get judged on results once things settle down. Do people really know what Johnson's policies on a lot of issues are? - many seemed to be made on the hoof. Throw big numbers at an issue - xxx thousand of new nurses or policemen and everything will be better!!
Local elections will be an interesting litmus test when the focus is back on domestic issues.

Who is the Labour "equivalent" of Johnson?
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #603
shmmeee said:
It’s been changed to try and get more Corbynite people onto the ballot, but basically there’s two nomination stages then a final ballot.

First you need 5% of the MPs/MEPs to nominate you, about 22 at the moment. Phillips, Starmer, Nandy, RLB and Thornberry managed that.

Then (this is the new bit) you need either a certain percentage of affiliates group like unions and socialist societies (based on size of membership so Unite means more than the Musicians Union or whatever) OR a certain percentage of CLPs to nominate you. This is the stage we are currently in. RLB will get Momentumite CLPs and left wing unions like Unite and Food Workers begins her for that. Phillips realises she was too right wing for the unions and too disliked by members and dropped out. Currently Starmer and Nandy are through on affiliate nominations alone, RLB will probably make it too, question marks over Thornberry.

Then it’s a vote by members with alternative vote so members rank their options, if no one gets over 50% they are eliminated and their second options redistributed. Repeat until someone’s over 50%.

Polling is suggesting it’s Starmer by a mile. RLB got lots of Momentumite first preferences but you need the soft left like Corbyn had and they don’t seem to be taking to her. As you say she’s pretty unimpressive and the wider field is more palatable to the soft left than it was when Corbyn won.
Click to expand...

Has Mcloskey and unite declared its choice yet?
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #604
Actually just looked that’s Friday it seems
 
Reactions: shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #605
Grendel said:
Actually just looked that’s Friday it seems
Click to expand...

Its likely to be RLB, but I’m holding out hope there’s an outbreak of sense and they pull a surprise.
 
Reactions: westcountry_skyblue

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #606
RLB would be a disaster, the Momentum lot should just form their own party.
The process is way too drawn out and Corbyn should have stepped down already, having him front the party still at PMQs is ridiculous.
 
Reactions: westcountry_skyblue, Brighton Sky Blue and Mcbean

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #607
Sick Boy said:
RLB would be a disaster, the Momentum lot should just form their own party.
Click to expand...

I was thinking about this and I think the best thing would be a think tank to create and test policy ideas that the Labour Party can draw upon. the Party needs to be an election winning machine focused on voters IMO, and a lot of members (not just Momentum) get more excited by big ideas that scare voters at first.
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #608
shmmeee said:
I was thinking about this and I think the best thing would be a think tank to create and test policy ideas that the Labour Party can draw upon. the Party needs to be an election winning machine focused on voters IMO, and a lot of members (not just Momentum) get more excited by big ideas that scare voters at first.
Click to expand...
Problem with labour is how they draw up a think tank that isn't heavily influenced by 1 particular "faction".
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #609
tisza said:
Problem with labour is how they draw up a think tank that isn't heavily influenced by 1 particular "faction".
Click to expand...

Just have lots of them, one for each faction. Then the party picks and chooses when it needs policy ideas.
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #610
Sick Boy said:
RLB would be a disaster, the Momentum lot should just form their own party.
The process is way too drawn out and Corbyn should have stepped down already, having him front the party still at PMQs is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

You could argue that Labour First and Progress should do the same thing. At least Momentum brought with them an organised and effective campaigning machine - the other 2 had nothing like this.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #611
Ian1779 said:
You could argue that Labour First and Progress should do the same thing. At least Momentum brought with them an organised and effective campaigning machine - the other 2 had nothing like this.
Click to expand...

Yes an organised campaign that appealed to very few people
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #612
Grendel said:
Yes an organised campaign that appealed to very few people
Click to expand...
Actually it did well where it campaigned - but was not diverse or wide ranging enough.
 
W

westcountry_skyblue

Guest
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #613
I want to vote labour again so it must be Lisa Nandy or Kier Starmer.
RLB is just a diluted Corbyn,Who cannot see the worst defeat since 1935? Momentum need getting rid of period!!
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #614
Ian1779 said:
You could argue that Labour First and Progress should do the same thing. At least Momentum brought with them an organised and effective campaigning machine - the other 2 had nothing like this.
Click to expand...

What effect did it have?
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #615
shmmeee said:
What effect did it have?
Click to expand...
Certainly not the effect it had in 2017. In my opinion this is because it was too London focused and too Remain focused. Maybe the infrastructure isn’t there outside of the big city areas.

That said - Momentum have as much right to be a part of the Labour family as any other organisation or group. Not sure why the dismissal of them.
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 23, 2020
  • #616
westcountry_skyblue said:
I want to vote labour again so it must be Lisa Nandy or Kier Starmer.
RLB is just a diluted Corbyn,Who cannot see the worst defeat since 1935? Momentum need getting rid of period!!
Click to expand...

Exacerbated by the Brexit issue. It’s not a comparable measure.
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #617
westcountry_skyblue said:
I want to vote labour again so it must be Lisa Nandy or Kier Starmer.
RLB is just a diluted Corbyn,Who cannot see the worst defeat since 1935? Momentum need getting rid of period!!
Click to expand...
Period?
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #618
Ian1779 said:
Exacerbated by the Brexit issue. It’s not a comparable measure.
Click to expand...

Equally supported by Brexit. Labour got a lot of Remain votes it otherwise wouldn’t have.

We need to listen to what people are telling us dude. Corbyns changed the party for the better in many ways, we have a large membership as you say and the current slate is more left than any I can remember but in many other ways he was a disaster and it’s time to move on.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #619
Ian1779 said:
Exacerbated by the Brexit issue. It’s not a comparable measure.
Click to expand...

Not really. Brexit was a key part of the election and as usual labour blundered their strategy

Labour other than under Blair have seemed incapable of running an election strategy. Tories with the exception of 2017 are pretty good at it
 
Reactions: Sick Boy and shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #620
Grendel said:
Not really. Brexit was a key part of the election and as usual labour blundered their strategy

Labour other than under Blair have seemed incapable of running an election strategy. Tories with the exception of 2017 are pretty good at it
Click to expand...

Was having this chat with a guy at CLP last night. The Tories are an election winning machine and no less focused on their ideological goals for it. We could learn a lot from them.
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #621
shmmeee said:
Was having this chat with a guy at CLP last night. The Tories are an election winning machine and no less focused on their ideological goals for it. We could learn a lot from them.
Click to expand...
Wasn't momentum set up to be this electoral winning machine? Where it has got lost (made electorate nervous) is becoming its own political group within the Labour Party. Ultimately going to need rebranding because of its association with Corbynism.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #622
tisza said:
Wasn't momentum set up to be this electoral winning machine? Where it has got lost (made electorate nervous) is becoming its own political group within the Labour Party. Ultimately going to need rebranding because of its association with Corbynism.
Click to expand...

Momentum is a campaigning and activist organisation. Not the same thing. Winning elections is about a lot more than ground game.
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #623
shmmeee said:
Momentum is a campaigning and activist organisation. Not the same thing. Winning elections is about a lot more than ground game.
Click to expand...

agreed and having the ability to flex your ideology to suit the wider population...something momentum appear unwilling to do. I’d go even further and suggest their ‘if you don’t agree with us you’re Tory scum’ might’ve actually put a few people off as well !
 
Reactions: shmmeee and SkyBlueDom26

SkyBlueDom26

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #624
Momentum killed the Labour party and im sure most decent labour supporters would agree with me on that, prove me wrong lol
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #625
CCFCSteve said:
agreed and having the ability to flex your ideology to suit the wider population...something momentum appear unwilling to do. I’d go even further and suggest their ‘if you don’t agree with us you’re Tory scum’ might’ve actually put a few people off as well !
Click to expand...

It’s so frustrating. Was at a meeting last night where someone said “the most important people are the membership” I wanted to scream at him. I didn’t join the party to help make a bunch of middle class graduates lives slightly easier!
 
Reactions: Ian1779

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #626
shmmeee said:
Equally supported by Brexit. Labour got a lot of Remain votes it otherwise wouldn’t have.

We need to listen to what people are telling us dude. Corbyns changed the party for the better in many ways, we have a large membership as you say and the current slate is more left than any I can remember but in many other ways he was a disaster and it’s time to move on.
Click to expand...

The thing is I don’t disagree on reflection. He has set a narrative and one that we should build on with a new leader. But I worry we lose the good things and slip back to being a party ambivalent on austerity.
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #627
SkyBlueDom26 said:
Momentum killed the Labour party and im sure most decent labour supporters would agree with me on that, prove me wrong lol
Click to expand...

The Labour Party became lost in 2010.
 
Reactions: SkyBlueDom26

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #628
Ian1779 said:
The thing is I don’t disagree on reflection. He has set a narrative and one that we should build on with a new leader. But I worry we lose the good things and slip back to being a party ambivalent on austerity.
Click to expand...

Most of the country is ambivalent so there is your first problem
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #629
shmmeee said:
Was having this chat with a guy at CLP last night. The Tories are an election winning machine and no less focused on their ideological goals for it. We could learn a lot from them.
Click to expand...

To be fair - irrespective of their agendas and splits, come election time they unite behind a single voice. Labour couldn’t follow suit.
 
Reactions: clint van damme

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 24, 2020
  • #630
Ian1779 said:
To be fair - irrespective of their agendas and splits, come election time they unite behind a single voice. Labour couldn’t follow suit.
Click to expand...

Labour are a party controlled by its members and the unions. It’s a huge problem

The Tories are far more realistic that members are not vital at all

Often labour supporters quote policies that are popular but they are labour policies so it’s the media. No it’s because they never ask the questions in context of an election. So a policy of removing food banks in 5 years will be popular. Unless you experience this hardship though it will have zero influence on how you vote.

Most people engage in politics for a few weeks at election time and that’s it. They aren’t interested in think tanks, policy detail, coatings - it’s a quick sharp slogan and a unification message

Until labour realise this they are dead
 
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