Home is king for promotion (6 Viewers)

[AFCCOVENTRY]

I think as a minimum:

Win the majority of the remaining home games say 12 out of the 16 and that gives us 36 points.

Then at least 5 away wins 15points.

5 draws at 5 points

We pretty much hit 90 points which should be enough this season.

That leaves enough flex to loose another 9 games across the season.

 

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[skybluelee]

Agreed. After our form of the last 12 months, plus Rudoni back and the Jan window looming closer, if we didn't return a record of at least 17 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats it would be a shock to me.

Got to stop getting ahead of myself but it's really difficult not to...

 

[rob9872]

We've lost 2 home league games in over a year now, against 2 very good teams in Leeds and Burnley. We're also top of this seasons away form table, so no reason at all we cant see this through. The metrics that go beyond this season, the improvement in age and experience of our squad, the weaker league, the poor starts from the relegated teams, everything points towards promotion and I cant see how anything other than a catastrophic run of key injuries can derail us

 

[Viktor17]

Weaker league always an interesting one, would say highly competitive (agree quality at top end may have dropped) but let’s not do us a disservice saying weaker.

As per last season wasn’t it come mid April every single team could still mathematically do something like get in play offs/get relegated - or words do that effect (don’t quote me)

 

[AFCCOVENTRY]

Rudoni missing for most of the season and we are where we are without arguably one of the best players in the division coming back for WBA and then some astute additions in Jan puts us in a fantastic position.

 

[PUSB-We_are_going_up]

https://www.worldfootball.net/competition/co20/england-championship/standings-calculator/

Anyone wanting to have a go you can do just ours to see what we would end up on

 

[AOM]

We've lost 2 home league games in over a year now, against 2 very good teams in Leeds and Burnley. We're also top of this seasons away form table, so no reason at all we cant see this through. The metrics that go beyond this season, the improvement in age and experience of our squad, the weaker league, the poor starts from the relegated teams, everything points towards promotion and I cant see how anything other than a catastrophic run of key injuries can derail us

This is how I feel too. We'll lose games, but I can't see us falling apart completely

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Hitting 50 points from home games is the magic number. Only Leeds in 23/24 hit 50+ points and did not get automatics, the only season in recent years where 3 teams hit 50+ points at home.

In recent years, the only season where the two automatically promoted team did not reach 50 home points was 21/22.

 

[SonofErnie]

Hitting 50 points from home games is the magic number. Only Leeds in 23/24 hit 50+ points and did not get automatics, the only season in recent years where 3 teams hit 50+ points at home.

In recent years, the only season where the two automatically promoted team did not reach 50 home points was 21/22.

Thos season is tracking very closely to that 21/22 season and I think 90 points could be an overestimate of the points required for top 2. I actually think 85 points will do it.

 

[clint van damme]

Thos season is tracking very closely to that 21/22 season and I think 90 points could be an overestimate of the points required for top 2. I actually think 85 points will do it.

That should be enough for 2nd place, 20 -25 points behind us!

 

[Liquid Gold]

What gives me real hope that this is our year is that despite our underlying metrics dropping a bit from the start we’re still winning games.

Haji has been a bit off form and we’ve missed Rudoni for a long while and won all but 1 game.

Last year our mad winning run felt like a once in a generation run but we’re doing it again right now.

 

[Robinshio]

What gives me real hope that this is our year is that despite our underlying metrics dropping a bit from the start we’re still winning games.

Haji has been a bit off form and we’ve missed Rudoni for a long while and won all but 1 game.

Last year our mad winning run felt like a once in a generation run but we’re doing it again right now.

1 more win and we’ve done 9 in 10 again

 

[bigfatronssba]

Home form has been great the whole time under Lampard, but so far this season our away form has been incredibly impressive.

We’ve won 5 away games already. We only won 6 in the whole of last season

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

What gives me real hope that this is our year is that despite our underlying metrics dropping a bit from the start we’re still winning games.

Haji has been a bit off form and we’ve missed Rudoni for a long while and won all but 1 game.

Last year our mad winning run felt like a once in a generation run but we’re doing it again right now.

It's an old fashioned view, but teams that can find a way to win games even if they are not performing all that well, for me, are usually the elite ones.

No club that has been promoted through the automatic spots would've played well every single game. The key is they have the ability to grind out results even if the run of play isn't in their favour.

That ability is in part what makes us a real contender this season.

 

[clint van damme]

It's an old fashioned view, but teams that can find a way to win games even if they are not performing all that well, for me, are usually the elite ones.

No club that has been promoted through the automatic spots would've played well every single game. The key is they have the ability to grind out results even if the run of play isn't in their favour.

That ability is in part what makes us a real contender this season.

It may be an old fashioned view but it's spot on.
No one plays well every game, especially in a 46 game season.

 

[shmmeee]

I think the question for us is can we have two of those ten game runs in a season? If we can we’re probably up there.

 

[Macca1987]

Just looking at some of the stats from the last three games where it has been muted we didn't play as well as before
Stoke shots 13, shots inside box 3, touches in box 9
Sheff U shots 17, shots inside box 8, touches in box 13
Wrexham shots 18, shot inside box 5, touches in box 10
All of these stats were more than our 3 opponents, even not playing brilliantly it still shows we are there and about the opposition box with plenty of chances to score
To me Wrexham was an outlier, no-one could have predicted a Moore hat trick
I believe if we continue like this we will still win more than we will draw or lose
As lots have said, get through this so called hard patch up to Xmas and then step up a gear from there
PUSB

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Thos season is tracking very closely to that 21/22 season and I think 90 points could be an overestimate of the points required for top 2. I actually think 85 points will do it.

That seems a bit optimistic at this stage but I remember my own playoff points prediction being quite low and was v accurate.

In fairness to you, Sunderland and Sheff U were overperforming their xG last season but were followed by Leeds and Burnley, who also over performed xG. The top 3 teams rarely lost for most of the season.

This season, however, there’s a few things going for us:
1. We’ve beaten the teams performing well in the league (Stoke, Millwall, Derby) and those performing well on xG (Blues, Watford, Blackburn).
2. The parachute payment teams are not doing well, barring Ipswich
3. Teams over performing on xG (Boro, PNE, Bristol, Stoke) don’t have the staying power imo. Boro changing manager is a big plus
4. The underperforming xG teams unlikely to catch us up, barring Ipswich

After Blues away, we’ll know if we’ve more or less confirmed playoffs and have an idea if we’ll win the league or face a battle for top 2.

 

[clint van damme]

Just looking at some of the stats from the last three games where it has been muted we didn't play as well as before
Stoke shots 13, shots inside box 3, touches in box 9
Sheff U shots 17, shots inside box 8, touches in box 13
Wrexham shots 18, shot inside box 5, touches in box 10
All of these stats were more than our 3 opponents, even not playing brilliantly it still shows we are there and about the opposition box with plenty of chances to score
To me Wrexham was an outlier, no-one could have predicted a Moore hat trick
I believe if we continue like this we will still win more than we will draw or lose
As lots have said, get through this so called hard patch up to Xmas and then step up a gear from there
PUSB

I thought we were brilliant against Stoke.

 

[Viktor17]

I thought we were brilliant against Stoke.

Agree - an outstanding away performance. Very un "city"!!!