Oh dear
Vote for the opposite and then you can point out to the thread that you were right on.Oh dear
Mabee the last one.A more realistic poll would be "will we get another penalty before the end of the season"
Or "will Haji Wright go 90 minutes without being caught offside" or "will Thomas score from a corner ever again"
8 v Wednesday and then only need 2 per game.Other than Sheff Wed there are no easy games, don’t see us getting close to nearly 3 goals a game as an average, tough fixtures
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Current: 72 goals in 35 games (2.06 per game)
Remaining: 11 fixtures
Projected final total:
Central estimate: 89 goals (median)
Mean: 89.5
Range: ±4.2 goals (1 standard deviation)
Distribution:
80–84 goals 10.8% ████
85–89 goals 40.3% ████████████████
90–94 goals 36.5% ██████████████
95–99 goals 10.7% ████
100+ goals 1.3%
Per fixture expected goals:
Sat 7 Mar (A) Bristol City 1.49
Wed 11 Mar (H) Preston 1.56
Sat 14 Mar (H) Southampton 1.63
Sat 21 Mar (A) Swansea 1.47
Fri 3 Apr (H) Derby 1.63
Mon 6 Apr (A) Hull 1.56
Sat 11 Apr (H) Sheff Wed 1.94 ← highest
Sat 18 Apr (A) Blackburn 1.52
Tue 21 Apr (H) Portsmouth 1.62
Sat 25 Apr (H) Wrexham 1.62
Sat 2 May (A) Watford 1.44 ← lowestHow are you modelling predicted expected goals per fixture?Using the same model I built to project final league positions, this is how it sees our final goal tally. Only a 1.3% chance of scoring 100 goals.
Code:Current: 72 goals in 35 games (2.06 per game) Remaining: 11 fixtures Projected final total: Central estimate: 89 goals (median) Mean: 89.5 Range: ±4.2 goals (1 standard deviation) Distribution: 80–84 goals 10.8% ████ 85–89 goals 40.3% ████████████████ 90–94 goals 36.5% ██████████████ 95–99 goals 10.7% ████ 100+ goals 1.3% Per fixture expected goals: Sat 7 Mar (A) Bristol City 1.49 Wed 11 Mar (H) Preston 1.56 Sat 14 Mar (H) Southampton 1.63 Sat 21 Mar (A) Swansea 1.47 Fri 3 Apr (H) Derby 1.63 Mon 6 Apr (A) Hull 1.56 Sat 11 Apr (H) Sheff Wed 1.94 ← highest Sat 18 Apr (A) Blackburn 1.52 Tue 21 Apr (H) Portsmouth 1.62 Sat 25 Apr (H) Wrexham 1.62 Sat 2 May (A) Watford 1.44 ← lowest
How are you modelling predicted expected goals per fixture?
We should be getting close to 28 v Sheff Weds
How are you modelling predicted expected goals per fixture?
Step 1: Build a blended attack rating for Coventry and a blended defensive rating for each opponent.
Rather than relying solely on xG stats or actual goals, we blend the two equally. For Cov in attack, we average season xGF per game (1.74 from Opta) and actual goals per game (2.06 across 35 matches) to get 1.90.
We do the same for each opponent’s defence by averaging their xGA per game with their actual goals conceded per game.
The rationale behind blending is that pure xG can underestimate a team genuinely outperforming its expected output over a large sample while pure actual goals can be noisy and include fortunate finishes. Even after 35 games, both signals still carry valuable information.
Step 2: Combine attack and defence with a venue adjustment.
For a home fixture, we multiply Coventry’s blended attack by 1.10 (a home advantage boost) and the opponent’s blended defensive figure by 0.90 (teams defend slightly worse away). We then average the two. For an away fixture, we invert those multipliers.
Because xG measures the quality of chances created, not the quality of finishing, and its finishing which determines goals, not chances. Over the course of the season we have outperformed xG by 0.3 goals per game which over the course of 35 games becomes a pretty meaningful difference.Why not just use home and away xG?
Because xG measures the quality of chances created, not the quality of finishing, and its finishing which determines goals, not chances. Over the course of the season we have outperformed xG by 0.3 goals per game which over the course of 35 games becomes a pretty meaningful difference.
It’s not arbitrary, it’s actual goals, that’s a less arbitrary measure than xG, surely? But sure, it’s entirely opinionated, we could just try reading tea leaves.But you still use xG, you just modify it with an arbitrary number.
Interesting - I've seen 2/3 xG 1/3 actual goals used as a weighting before. What's Sheff Wed's predicted goals against us by your model?Step 1: Build a blended attack rating for Coventry and a blended defensive rating for each opponent.
Rather than relying solely on xG stats or actual goals, we blend the two equally. For Cov in attack, we average season xGF per game (1.74 from Opta) and actual goals per game (2.06 across 35 matches) to get 1.90.
We do the same for each opponent’s defence by averaging their xGA per game with their actual goals conceded per game.
The rationale behind blending is that pure xG can underestimate a team genuinely outperforming its expected output over a large sample while pure actual goals can be noisy and include fortunate finishes. Even after 35 games, both signals still carry valuable information.
Step 2: Combine attack and defence with a venue adjustment.
For a home fixture, we multiply Coventry’s blended attack by 1.10 (a home advantage boost) and the opponent’s blended defensive figure by 0.90 (teams defend slightly worse away). We then average the two. For an away fixture, we invert those multipliers.
It’s not arbitrary, it’s actual goals, that’s a less arbitrary measure than xG, surely? But sure, it’s entirely opinionated, we could just try reading tea leaves.
That is an attempt to bake in some home advantage because if you don’t do that then any team with an uneven number of home/away fixtures remaining will have their xG skewed in one direction or another compared to their PPG. The 10% boost/penalty is an arbitrary number though, you’re right about that. we can though look at data across the season to try and quantify an average impact, and looking at that data says I likely underestimate that impact somewhat:“
Step 2: Combine attack and defence with a venue adjustment.
For a home fixture, we multiply Coventry’s blended attack by 1.10 (a home advantage boost) and the opponent’s blended defensive figure by 0.90 (teams defend slightly worse away). We then average the two. For an away fixture, we invert those multipliers.”
Where have those numbers come from?
0.79, with a 45% chance of them not scoring and an 81% chance of them scoring 0 or 1. Still might be a bit generousInteresting - I've seen 2/3 xG 1/3 actual goals used as a weighting before. What's Sheff Wed's predicted goals against us by your model?
That is an attempt to bake in some home advantage because if you don’t do that then any team with an uneven number of home/away fixtures remaining will have their xG skewed in one direction or another compared to their PPG. The 10% boost/penalty is an arbitrary number though, you’re right about that. we can though look at data across the season to try and quantify an average impact, and looking at that data says I likely underestimate that impact somewhat:
On a PPG basis the venue effect is much bigger. The league average home PPG is 1.531 vs away 1.224, a ratio of ×1.25. to mimic this we’d apply a .25 home advantage and away disentangle as opposed to the .1 I use.
On a goals basis the effect is more modest — 1.393 home goals per game vs 1.201 away, a ratio of ×1.16. That’s closer to my assumption but still above it marginally.
does that make sense? I think so, at least more sense than not factoring in any kind of home advantage.
It will be possible until the final game of the season is over but I don’t see us beating Watford 10/15-0Until its impossible its possible
Thats still a possibility!It will be possible until the final game of the season is over but I don’t see us beating Watford 10/15-0
Imagine needing 1It will be possible until the final game of the season is over but I don’t see us beating Watford 10/15-0
13 clear with 4 to play? That's the positive talk I like to see!2.54 goals a game needed (28g in 11 games) with Sheffield Wednesday still to play at home as well that could be a few goals if we have our shooting boots on, it could also be the game we confirm promotion considering there are only 4 games left after
I'd take itCoventry City 1 (Simms 90+5) Sheffield Wednesday 0
You do know its our way to give struggling teams a hand.upWell that's another poll then, how many goals will we score against Sheffield Wednesday.
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