Glicko-2

Philosorapter

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Hi all,

Now that I am a little better from my health hiccup I wanted to try something a little bit different this season.

Does anyone remembers the Coventry Telegragh article about the Sky Sports predictor, "Elo"?

Coventry City's predicted promotion prospects

Its basically an old chess rating system.

Well, let's add some bells and whistles to it and update it a little.

The home page of Glicko-2 can be found here.

Mark Glickman's Home Page

More technical stuff is in here.

https://www.englishchess.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/The_Glicko_system_for_beginners1.pdf

Even more technical stuff.

(PDF) A Comparison between Different Chess...

I certainly don't understand this but it is what the main chess servers use to rate the players that frequent there.

I've been having a late night look around the net and found a Glicko-2 calculator.

The ratings deviations doesn't show up on the website so I would recommend waiting until past the twelfth game for the RD to drop from 350 to 50. This is where there is confidence in the rating that it is in close proximity to the playing strength of the side.

This is all Public Domain stuff.
 
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Philosorapter

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Rating deviation approximately 350.0 - All ratings are provisional.

IMG_0956.PNG
 
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Philosorapter

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IMG_0957.PNG

Strange that they have come out backwards!
 
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Otis

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Mar 26, 2011
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Hi all,

Now that I am a little better from my health hiccup I wanted to try something a little bit different this season.

Does anyone remembers the Coventry Telegragh article about the Sky Sports predictor, "Elo"?

Coventry City's predicted promotion prospects

Its basically an old chess rating system.

Well, let's add some bells and whistles to it and update it a little.

The home page of Glicko-2 can be found here.

Mark Glickman's Home Page

More technical stuff is in here.

https://www.englishchess.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/The_Glicko_system_for_beginners1.pdf

Even more technical stuff.

(PDF) A Comparison between Different Chess...

I certainly don't understand this but it is what the main chess servers use to rate the players that frequent there.

I've been having a late night look around the net and found a Glicko-2 calculator.

The ratings deviations doesn't show up on the website so I would recommend waiting until past the twelfth game for the RD to drop from 350 to 50. This is where there is confidence in the rating that it is in close proximity to the playing strength of the side.

This is all Public Domain stuff.
Glad you are a bit better.

Why risk your health though and come on to this plague-ridden place?
 
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Philosorapter

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Glad you are a bit better.

Why risk your health though and come on to this plague-ridden place?
There is nothing like hanging around sports forums. No better place to meet Humanity.
 

Philosorapter

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Aug 7, 2013
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Okay, I think today is a safe firm bet of twelve home wins, with an optional bet of correct score being 1-0.

With the idea of home advantage and the most common repeating score in the top four divisions in the football pyramid over the past hundred years or so.
 
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Philosorapter

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Ditto what Otis said
Glad your health has picked up!
Cheers.

It should be interesting to watch the volatility in the ratings until they come out of provisional mode.

I have a cunning plan where I can watch the rating deviation, if the website has set it up correctly, and keep track of it for everyone.

Done something like this before. I was one of ones that cleared up the mess on a server caused by Steve Rosenberg.

Cheating Accusations in Mental Sports, Too

Do I have a few stories to tell :)
 

wingy

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Cheers.

It should be interesting to watch the volatility in the ratings until they come out of provisional mode.

I have a cunning plan where I can watch the rating deviation, if the website has set it up correctly, and keep track of it for everyone.

Done something like this before. I was one of ones that cleared up the mess on a server caused by Steve Rosenberg.

Cheating Accusations in Mental Sports, Too

Do I have a few stories to tell :)
Haha
Read that
A pair of Glasses or a chip under the skin?
Maybe
Or memorised,choreographed ?
 

Philosorapter

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Philosorapter

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Rating deviation approximately 285.2 - ratings are provisional

IMG_1074.PNG

Completed matches

IMG_1111.PNG
 
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wingy

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Philosorapter

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Results for 11th August..

Ratings are provisional (RD around 261.8)

With a draw against the stronger rated AFC Wimbledon, Coventry rises 38 rating points and two places.

IMG_1101.PNG
 
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Philosorapter

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IMG_1103.PNG

The system seems to be working, choosing a favoured team over a challenger but it's very early days.

A monkey, given enough time on a typewriter, can knock out the complete works of Shakespeare.
 
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Philosorapter

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Next week choices are...

IMG_1105.PNG

The first person to work out the colour coded scheme gets ten points..
 

Philosorapter

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Results for 18th August..

Ratings are provisional (RD around 255.7)

IMG_1148.PNG
 

Philosorapter

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Results for 19th August...

IMG_1163.PNG
 

Philosorapter

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Results for 21st August...

IMG_1179.PNG
 

Philosorapter

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Ratings as of 22nd August

Ratings are provisional.

IMG_1193.PNG
 
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Philosorapter

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Ratings are still as volatile as anything but less then they were a few games ago.
 
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Philosorapter

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Ratings as of 25th August..

Ratings are provisional.

IMG_1207.PNG

Next week choices.

IMG_1208.PNG
 

Philosorapter

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Ratings as of 1st September.

Ratings are provisional.

IMG_1235.PNG

Next week choices.

IMG_1236.PNG
 
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Philosorapter

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Ratings as of 8th September

Ratings are provisional.

IMG_1315.PNG

Next weeks choices.

IMG_1317.PNG
 

Philosorapter

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Ratings as of 9th September.

Ratings are provisional.

IMG_1329.PNG
 

Philosorapter

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Ratings as of 15th September.

Ratings are provisional.

IMG_1367.PNG

Next weeks choices.

IMG_1368.PNG
 

Philosorapter

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Just to spice things up a little with the 'home and away' stuff in conjunction with ranking being a collection of both data sets cancelling the 'home and away' argument out over time.

When playing at home (white) I would usually assume that my rating is going to be higher, and my opponents rating (black) is lower then what is prescribed in the rating table, and visa versa for playing away from home.

The argument for this, I assume, has many branches both objective and subjective.

We have the same thing with chess when playing white or black.

First-move advantage in chess - Wikipedia
 
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Philosorapter

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Ratings as of 22nd September.

Ratings are provisional.

IMG_1409.PNG

Next weeks choices.

IMG_1410.PNG
 

Philosorapter

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Ratings as of 29th September.

Ratings are provisional.

IMG_1456.PNG

Tuesdays choices.

IMG_1454.PNG
 
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Philosorapter

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Ratings as of 2nd October.

Riatings are provisional

IMG_1485.PNG

Choices for Saturday.

IMG_1489.PNG