General Election 2019 thread (4 Viewers)

Ian1779 · Nov 12, 2019

Astute said:
You mean they should go for the close seats and take votes away from the Tories?

There is a difference between what you want and what they want.

Of course - but their blanket approach of only standing in seats NOT held by the Tories could be counterproductive. The Tories have to win by taking Lab seats. It has been suggested that the Brexit party take 2 votes from the Tories for every 1 they take from Lab. Lab voters that went for BXP in Euro elections may not be prepared to protest the same way again. Factor in that Tories could lose marginal LD/Con seats as moderate Tories may believe their party and descended into the party of No-Deal again.

It’s easy to pass it off as a boost for Johnson... until you scratch beneath the surface.

Astute · Nov 12, 2019

Ian1779 said:
Of course - but their blanket approach of only standing in seats NOT held by the Tories could be counterproductive. The Tories have to win by taking Lab seats. It has been suggested that the Brexit party take 2 votes from the Tories for every 1 they take from Lab. Lab voters that went for BXP in Euro elections may not be prepared to protest the same way again. Factor in that Tories could lose marginal LD/Con seats as moderate Tories may believe their party and descended into the party of No-Deal again.

It’s easy to pass it off as a boost for Johnson... until you scratch beneath the surface.

But they are standing where there is a Labour majority. The idea is to take votes off Labour. As in the Labour voters who could never vote Tory but want to leave the EU.

Ian1779 · Nov 12, 2019

Astute said:
But they are standing where there is a Labour majority. The idea is to take votes off Labour. As in the Labour voters who could never vote Tory but want to leave the EU.

Yes - but the pact has essentially turned the BXP into a Tory party wing. This might be the step too far for lots of them. And that is not factoring in the idea that there will still be Tory voters in those seats that will also go to them. What the ratio is will be the key.

SkyBlueCharlie9 · Nov 12, 2019

I wonder if Labour offered to see how bad Bexit is and offer a referendum in 4-5 years to come back in to EU when it's gone tits up!.

Philosoraptor · Nov 12, 2019

Im sure the calculations have already been done on which seats the Brexit party will step down from and which ones they will contest.

Take for instance Coventry South. They have stepped down there with a Labour majority expecting people to move from Labour to the Lib Dems or the Tories on how you voted in the referendum.

There must be great thanks from the Tory's to the present or previous Labour MPs/councillors who insisted they were going to vote for someone else in the previous elections, even going on TV and radio to announce this.

chiefdave · Nov 12, 2019

Philosorapter said:
Take for instance Coventry South. They have stepped down there with a Labour majority expecting people to move from Labour to the Lib Dems or the Tories on how you voted in the referendum.

Thought James Crocker had been moved from Mid Derbyshire to replace Jules Morgan?

The Conservative candidate here is remain so are we just going to be left with a choice of a remain Convservative candidate, remain Labour candidate, remain Lib Dem candidate or remain Green candidate?

Philosoraptor · Nov 12, 2019

I thought the Tory candidate was the new councillor... trying to think of her name but its completely lost me.

I dont know where they stand on Europe.

chiefdave · Nov 12, 2019

Philosorapter said:
I thought the Tory one was the new one councillor... trying to think of her name but its completely lost me.

Yep, only been in the job since September having been dropped in after losing in two other constituencies. Won, had her induction, went on holiday and then became the parliamentary candidate. All a bit of a joke really.

She might be a Conservative candidate but she campaigned for remain.

Philosoraptor · Nov 12, 2019

chiefdave said:
Yep, only been in the job since September having been dropped in after losing in two other constituencies. Won, had her induction, went on holiday and then became the parliamentary candidate. All a bit of a joke really.

She might be a Conservative candidate but she campaigned for remain.

Hahaha, I love politics when people turn on a dime when it suits the party machine, no more conviction politicians.

Of course, the argument here is we all had the choice when we had the referendum and now she is standing putting the will of the people forward. It's the people that are still campaigning to remain which amuse me the greatest. It just shows a complete disdain for the democratic process.

Philosoraptor · Nov 13, 2019

Here we go. This is a good stab at it when it was first mentioned,

Philosoraptor · Nov 13, 2019

Personally I think everything what is happening since we all made the decision a few years back can be boiled down to one fact.

There are many more people who are dying who voted to leave the European Union then to remain.

The longer you put off leaving the European Union the more of a chance you have of winning a second referendum.

If you take any empathy out of the equation and just look at this with logic then you can't rule it out.

Philosoraptor · Nov 13, 2019

This Tweet has definitely not aged well.

I just give up with the lot of it...

Astute · Nov 13, 2019

chiefdave said:
Thought James Crocker had been moved from Mid Derbyshire to replace Jules Morgan?

The Conservative candidate here is remain so are we just going to be left with a choice of a remain Convservative candidate, remain Labour candidate, remain Lib Dem candidate or remain Green candidate?

And Coventry voted 85,000 leave 67,000 remain IIRC.....

Astute · Nov 13, 2019

Ian1779 said:
Yes - but the pact has essentially turned the BXP into a Tory party wing. This might be the step too far for lots of them. And that is not factoring in the idea that there will still be Tory voters in those seats that will also go to them. What the ratio is will be the key.

So Tory voters won't vote Tory because Farage doesn't stand against them?

Philosoraptor · Nov 13, 2019

chiefdave said:
Thought James Crocker had been moved from Mid Derbyshire to replace Jules Morgan?

The Conservative candidate here is remain so are we just going to be left with a choice of a remain Convservative candidate, remain Labour candidate, remain Lib Dem candidate or remain Green candidate?

Got to admit, didn't realise there was a new Brexit candidate for Coventry South.

Sky Blue Pete · Nov 13, 2019

Yougov 14% lead
Survation 6% lead

unlikely to be close

Ian1779 · Nov 13, 2019

Sky Blue Pete said:
Yougov 14% lead
Survation 6% lead

unlikely to be close

you still have a month to go - the Tories had a 20 point lead to begin with last time.

Its going to be close.

Ian1779 · Nov 13, 2019

Astute said:
So Tory voters won't vote Tory because Farage doesn't stand against them?

Some former Tory voters do not believe in the Tory Brexit. People taking about abstaining. You only have to go on social media to see for yourself.

Sky Blue Pete · Nov 13, 2019

Ian1779 said:
you still have a month to go - the Tories had a 20 point lead to begin with last time.

Its going to be close.

How?

Astute · Nov 13, 2019

Ian1779 said:
Some former Tory voters do not believe in the Tory Brexit. People taking about abstaining. You only have to go on social media to see for yourself.

So Tory voters would vote for the Brexit party? Can you explain in plain words why?

Astute · Nov 13, 2019

Sky Blue Pete said:
How?

Don't worry. He also thinks the Tories would lose Tory voters to the Brexit party :smuggrin:

skybluetony176 · Nov 13, 2019

Sky Blue Pete said:
How?

Same way as last time. Good campaigning on a decent manifesto. At the point TM called an election in 2017 some polls (with a margin of error) had her taking over 50% of the vote share. It’s a much smaller challenge this time for Labour than last so it’s more than possible. Unlikely to deliver a majority Labour government by any stretch of the imagination but doing enough to keep Boris is more than possible.

skybluetony176 · Nov 13, 2019

Astute said:
Don't worry. He also thinks the Tories would lose Tory voters to the Brexit party :smuggrin:

They’ve lost Tory members such as Ann Widdecombe and Rees-Moggs sister just of the top of my head to the Brexit Party and as you’ve acknowledged yourself in an earlier post they’re forecast to take two votes from the Tories for every vote they take of Labour. Classic Astute, disagree with someone by disagreeing with yourself.

skybluetony176 · Nov 13, 2019

A lot of papers claiming that the puppet masters are now telling Ferage to pull candidates out of Labour marginal seats where the Brexit Party doesn’t have any hope of winning enough votes. Could be as much as another 40 seats they’re pulling out of apparently. Maybe Banks is up for a peerage too.

Grendel · Nov 13, 2019

Ian1779 said:
Some former Tory voters do not believe in the Tory Brexit. People taking about abstaining. You only have to go on social media to see for yourself.

The latest poll which gives Tories a 14 point lead is the only one since Brexit Party removes candidates was giving voters an option only of parties in their constituencies. So this does not suggest that?

the one with a 6 point lead was taken on Nov 6 to 8 before the announcement by Farage. The wider gap is the collapse in brexit votes

SkyBlueDom26 · Nov 13, 2019

skybluetony176 said:
A lot of papers claiming that the puppet masters are now telling Ferage to pull candidates out of Labour marginal seats where the Brexit Party doesn’t have any hope of winning enough votes. Could be as much as another 40 seats they’re pulling out of apparently. Maybe Banks is up for a peerage too.

Bet you had no problem with pacts and tactics when the Lib dems and other remain parties were doing it before Farage, can't have it both ways

skybluetony176 · Nov 13, 2019

Grendel said:
The latest poll which gives Tories a 14 point lead is the only one since Brexit Party removes candidates was giving voters an option only of parties in their constituencies. So this does not suggest that?

the one with a 6 point lead was taken on Nov 6 to 8 before the announcement by Farage. The wider gap is the collapse in brexit votes

So basically you’re saying that the jump in the polls is worthless as the Brexit Party has only pulled out of seats with sitting Tory MP’s so the earlier poll is the more relevant one. Interesting take.

Grendel · Nov 13, 2019

SkyBlueDom26 said:
Bet you had no problem with pacts and tactics when the Lib dems and other remain parties were doing it before Farage, can't have it both ways

I’m pretty certain they are not putting a candidate in Coventry South and i suspect they’ll end up fielding a lot less than even what is now being suggested. The latest poll suggests that voters have switched anyway even where there may be candidates

skybluetony176 · Nov 13, 2019

SkyBlueDom26 said:
Bet you had no problem with pacts and tactics when the Lib dems and other remain parties were doing it before Farage, can't have it both ways

No I didn’t. But then again I haven’t expressed a problem with the Brexit Party and Tories doing it either so put your knickers back on.

fernandopartridge · Nov 13, 2019

westcountry_skyblue said:
I won a fair bit on leave in 2016,13/2 it was 20 mins before the polls shut.
Then as soon as the BBC announced it was gonna be close just after 10pm leave came in to 5/2.

I got 8/1 early evening

Grendel · Nov 13, 2019

skybluetony176 said:
So basically you’re saying that the jump in the polls is worthless as the Brexit Party has only pulled out of seats with sitting Tory MP’s so the earlier poll is the more relevant one. Interesting take.

What? The poll gave candidates in each seat who are standing. Even in seats where Brexit are standing there has been a huge shift to conservative and where there is no candidate the Tory vote has shot up - Brexit Party vote now viewed as wasted pretty much everywhere the polls were taken

the 6 point lead was where Brexit were standing in all seats and they have declined everywhere even where they are fielding candidates

you are starting to sound straw clutching and desperate

SkyBlueDom26 · Nov 13, 2019

Mr Stop Brexit Guy to run for the Liberal Democrats in the general election

This some sort of joke? Guys a clown and a very sad and lonely individual

Philosoraptor · Nov 13, 2019

SkyBlueDom26 said:
Mr Stop Brexit Guy to run for the Liberal Democrats in the general election

I do hope someone shouts through everyone of his interviews.

SkyBlueDom26 · Nov 13, 2019

Philosorapter said:
I do hope someone shouts through everyone of his interviews.

He's an embarrassment to the country

SkyBlueDom26 · Nov 13, 2019

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