Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
6 points too
6 points tooYep, that is indeed true.
Not saying it's going to happen (I don't believe we will lose on Monday), but if we did lose, that would put Ipswich 10 points behind us.
We lose 3 in a row (doesn't have to actually be in a row, could just be over a sequence of games) and they win 3, then they could be just 1 point behind.
Again, not saying it's going to happen, but there is a possibility, so while there still is that possibility, I am not totally convinced we will do it.
Just too many memories of years of struggle and missing out. It does make you a little cynical.
I think it's important we don't lose against Ipswich. Especially as we have been pretty invincible at home.
As others have been saying, a win Monday would be absolutey huge.
Us to win, Boro v Hull to finish a draw, Millwall v Bristol to finish a draw, Wrexham to turn PNE over at home! If only Carlsberg made football daysIpswich and Middlesbrough are still capable of catching us. Win on Monday would be psychologically huge
And Thomas hasn’t even started with last minute winnersThis season someone has chipped in. First Wright, then BTA, then Simms, now EMC. I expect Rudoni to start up next once he hits his stride…
Not after Monday night, who's the referee
for this one?
Somebody Backhouse 13 Championship matches 40YsIt doesn't matter who it is because they're all s*** in this league.
It really would be just our luck if Wednesday maintained 7 PPG from here on in ehLets give this thread a bump.
Only 6 teams can now mathematically reach 90 points. Other than Coventry all will need to improve their season's PPG to achieve this. Millwall would need to win 11 or 12/13, Ipswich 12/15, Hull 12/14 and Wrexham 13/13.
Don't fully rule out Leicester. If the Foxes win 19 out of their last 13 matches they could yet put themselves into the mix.
All bar Coventry and Middlesbrough need to be hitting more than 2 ppg from here to reach 85. Coventry would reach this with 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats.
Cheers, PUSB!
View attachment 49328
Ridiculous!It’s a real challenge to enjoy what’s happening
Looking back, one trend I’ve noticed is that if you get to 70 points by Game 35 (in our instance, the Stoke return fixture) you’re basically there. Only 1 team in the last 15 years has had 70+ points at that time and not gone up automatically: Sheff Utd last season where we had 2 100-point teams. 36 points across the next 20 games feels achievable.
Did that look a bit clearer on a spreadsheetFinal one of these because frankly the job is done. You can't even get odds on us getting promoted from most bookies now.
Just revel in its beauty. PUSB.
View attachment 49838
Ah it’s opened properly and I can read it… it was all black!! Yes a thing of beautyDid that look a bit clearer on a spreadsheet
We on course to get to 94-96 points and the maximum Boro can get is 96, Millwall and Ipswich can only get 95 points. That’s with each team winning all their which is of course impossible because the aforementioned teams all have to play each other.Final one of these because frankly the job is done. You can't even get odds on us getting promoted from most bookies now.
Just revel in its beauty. PUSB.
View attachment 49838
We on course to get to 94-96 points and the maximum Boro can get is 96, Millwall and Ipswich can only get 95 points. That’s with each team winning all their which is of course impossible because the aforementioned teams all have to play each other.
I’ll stay true to my prediction for most of the season and say it’ll be us and Ipswich going up automatically. Although I’d like to see Boro and Millwall go up.
I’m not worried about them anymore to be honest. Their big advantage is that they host Millwall and Boro and home where they’ve been fantastic, they should hit 50+ points at home which for most seasons is automatic promotion home form.Ipswich are on something like 1.4 PPG for away games.
If they don't improve on that Imnot sure they will make the autos.
I’m not worried about them anymore to be honest. Their big advantage is that they host Millwall and Boro and home where they’ve been fantastic, they should hit 50+ points at home which for most seasons is automatic promotion home form.
Their away form is a cause for concern and I’ve been saying it all season. My expectation is that they improve on that PPG against Norwich, Pompey, Charlton and WBA.
Middlesborough have slipped below 2.0 ppg at home which is a red flag because the a top 2 usually has 2.1-2.3 home ppg. Despite having the best away form in the league, it’s 1.8 ppg on the road. They’re looking vulnerable playing Millwall at home now and then they’ve got to go away to Portman Road. I’m just not fancying their chances and believe the wheels will fall off this hype train.
I’d love that, my ideal promotion partners would be Boro and Millwall, that should be 12 points towards the survival fund…That's all pointing to us and Millwall!
That's a huge outlier. Most places that are still offering are giving 1/500. Loads aren't offering anything at all now.Best price for promotion 1/14 Betfair.
That's because they don't want to take bets on cov.That's a huge outlier. Most places that are still offering are giving 1/500. Loads aren't offering anything at all now.
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict Millwall to get the other automatic spot.I’m not worried about them anymore to be honest. Their big advantage is that they host Millwall and Boro and home where they’ve been fantastic, they should hit 50+ points at home which for most seasons is automatic promotion home form.
Their away form is a cause for concern and I’ve been saying it all season. My expectation is that they improve on that PPG against Norwich, Pompey, Charlton and WBA.
Middlesborough have slipped below 2.0 ppg at home which is a red flag because the a top 2 usually has 2.1-2.3 home ppg. Despite having the best away form in the league, it’s 1.8 ppg on the road. They’re looking vulnerable playing Millwall at home now and then they’ve got to go away to Portman Road. I’m just not fancying their chances and believe the wheels will fall off this hype train.
Implied probability of 1/14 is 93.3%? Feels a touch low at this point.That's because they don't want to take bets on cov.
Betfair is the most accurate real time reflection of the likelihood of the event.
I'm still a little nervous.Still won’t fully believe until it’s mathematically done and if that day comes, then I will definitely cry.
I'm still a little nervous.Mad isn't it?
It's back to the "if we fail now, we will fail spectacularly" notion.
I am sure we will do it and go up as champions, but the next three games worry me a little.
Southampton, Swansea, Hull. I don't think we will lose all three (probably won't lose any of them), but they could all prove to be very tough games.
I would be more than happy with a draw on Saturday to be honest, though I do think we have an excellent chance of winning the game.
As for Swansea, that could be a harder task. I think it would be quite helpful if "And The Oscar Goes To-ham" beat them on Friday.
A win for the Swans there and they will just be two points behind their Welsh rivals.
Defeat could leave them 8 points adrift of 6th and knock their confidence quite substantially. 8 points behind with 8 games left would be a very hard ask.
Anyway, I do think these are three tough fixtures for us, but can definitely see us coming out of them at least undefeated.
I just can't bring myself to believe we are there already, though we pretty much are.
We have Derby at home before the Hull game, which given their away form isn't much easier I grant.I'm still a little nervous.Mad isn't it?
It's back to the "if we fail now, we will fail spectacularly" notion.
I am sure we will do it and go up as champions, but the next three games worry me a little.
Southampton, Swansea, Hull. I don't think we will lose all three (probably won't lose any of them), but they could all prove to be very tough games.
I would be more than happy with a draw on Saturday to be honest, though I do think we have an excellent chance of winning the game.
As for Swansea, that could be a harder task. I think it would be quite helpful if "And The Oscar Goes To-ham" beat them on Friday.
A win for the Swans there and they will just be two points behind their Welsh rivals.
Defeat could leave them 8 points adrift of 6th and knock their confidence quite substantially. 8 points behind with 8 games left would be a very hard ask.
Anyway, I do think these are three tough fixtures for us, but can definitely see us coming out of them at least undefeated.
I just can't bring myself to believe we are there already, though we pretty much are.
Oh, yeah. I missed that oneWe have Derby at home before the Hull game, which given their away form isn't much easier I grant.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?