FiveThirtyEight Prediction (1 Viewer)

[CoventryUSA]

FiveThirtyEight's model (updated after Preston/Blackburn draw) has Cov as a 60% chance of making the playoffs now.

The current forecast has it coming down to goal differential. Not sure my heart can handle these last two weeks.

 

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[Happy_Martian]

While it says we'll make the playoffs (which would still be some achievement), it also only gives us 12% chance of getting promoted. This sums up a lot of views on this forum about our prospects.

But on the positive side, if seeing our progress and can prompt Doug to open his wallet for some players, there should be no reason why we can't get there next season.

 

[Gint11]

While it says we'll make the playoffs (which would still be some achievement), it also only gives us 12% chance of getting promoted. This sums up a lot of views on this forum about our prospects.

But on the positive side, if seeing our progress and can prompt Doug to open his wallet for some players, there should be no reason why we can't get there next season.

Or do a Barnsley. We lose Gyko and Hamer than recruitment becomes even more important than usual but trust in the management team I guess, they deserve it and have almost unlimited credit in the bank.
When’s the mark robins statue going up?!

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

While it says we'll make the playoffs (which would still be some achievement), it also only gives us 12% chance of getting promoted. This sums up a lot of views on this forum about our prospects.

But on the positive side, if seeing our progress and can prompt Doug to open his wallet for some players, there should be no reason why we can't get there next season.

Never wait for a new chance you have to take chances when they arrive

 

[Happy_Martian]

Never wait for a new chance you have to take chances when they arrive

I didn't say that. I pointed out and commented on the FTE graph showing we had little chance of getting promoted (12%) compared to Boro and Luton (both 30% or above). My comments would make sense when read in that context.

While we have the chance now, we should make every effort to get these final two wins.

 

[shmmeee]

I didn't say that. I pointed out and commented on the FTE graph showing we had little chance of getting promoted (12%) compared to Boro and Luton (both 30% or above). My comments would make sense when read in that context.

While we have the chance now, we should make every effort to get these final two wins.

That’s because theyre already in the playoffs though not because they’re great.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

You get there and anything can happen. Funnily enough the team I fear most in there is Luton who really seem to have our number.

 

[Astute]

I didn't say that. I pointed out and commented on the FTE graph showing we had little chance of getting promoted (12%) compared to Boro and Luton (both 30% or above). My comments would make sense when read in that context.

While we have the chance now, we should make every effort to get these final two wins.

They are 30% or more because they are going to be in the playoffs. We're 12% because we're not in the playoffs yet. Once all 4 teams are known their odds will drop.

If and when we're confirmed as in the playoffs recent form will come into it. We must be on something like 1 defeat in the last 14 games. If you don't lose in the last 3 games you get promoted.

 

[pusbccfc]

Remember when it was like 2% last month

 

[SeaSeeEffCee]

You get there and anything can happen. Funnily enough the team I fear most in there is Luton who really seem to have our number.

I feel like I have zero reference point for Middlesbrough. Such a different side to the one we got our first win of the season against. Will be quite bizarre if we end up playing them three games in a row. Will be interesting to see how they approach the game vs us if we beat Birmingham and they lose to Luton and we are favourites for 5th with them guaranteed 4th.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Remember when it was like 2% last month

7% jumped up to 60% on the games today

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I feel like I have zero reference point for Middlesbrough. Such a different side to the one we got our first win of the season against. Will be quite bizarre if we end up playing them three games in a row. Will be interesting to see how they approach the game vs us if we beat Birmingham and they lose to Luton and we are favourites for 5th with them guaranteed 4th.

I feel like most other sides will generally come at us and play into a counter attacking game. Luton though have no star players, just extremely well drilled and stacked of physical players. Which is why we never beat them

 

[Astute]

Remember when it was like 2% last month

When we looked at all the remaining games and I was crazy to think we still had a big shout in getting into the top 6

 

[pusbccfc]

When we looked at all the remaining games and I was crazy to think we still had a big shout in getting into the top 6

The thing that is crazy is how average our results have been.

With 9 games to go it looked like we'd need to win 7. We've only won 3 since the Wigan draw.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The thing that is crazy is how average our results have been.

With 9 games to go it looked like we'd need to win 7. We've only won 3 since the Wigan draw.

Because the league has been that competitive everyone’s dropping more points than you’d expect on paper.

 

[Astute]

The thing that is crazy is how average our results have been.

With 9 games to go it looked like we'd need to win 7. We've only won 3 since the Wigan draw.

I fully agree. But most on here ignored the games where they had to play each other and also the unexpected results. Every game was a must win although our rivals had to play each other.

One little secret. If every game ended up as expected the bookies would go bankrupt. The bookies are loaded.

Our next game isn't a given. But a win would have us at least on the finishing line.

 

[Astute]

The thing that is crazy is how average our results have been.

With 9 games to go it looked like we'd need to win 7. We've only won 3 since the Wigan draw.

And drawn all but 1 of the rest.

 

[Astute]

The thing that is crazy is how average our results have been.

With 9 games to go it looked like we'd need to win 7. We've only won 3 since the Wigan draw.

I kept saying how the other results were just as important as our own. Swansea and Huddersfield hitting form has been massive for us.

We have plodded away. Those draws are now so important. We have sneaked under the radar and are now favourites for the top 6. We might have had a lot of draws but only 1 defeat in the last 1/3 of the season is what has put us where we are. Absolute consistency.

 

[JimmyHillsbeard]

You get there and anything can happen. Funnily enough the team I fear most in there is Luton who really seem to have our number.

They have failed to beat us this season for the first time in years.

 

[Johhny Blue]

I kept saying how the other results were just as important as our own. Swansea and Huddersfield hitting form has been massive for us.



Don’t forget QPR’s sudden burst of whatever it is they found

 

[kg82]

I didn't say that. I pointed out and commented on the FTE graph showing we had little chance of getting promoted (12%) compared to Boro and Luton (both 30% or above). My comments would make sense when read in that context.

While we have the chance now, we should make every effort to get these final two wins.

Think you mean final 5 wins