Expected Goals table (1 Viewer)

PVA · Sep 17, 2021

Now firstly I know expected goals is not everyone's cup of tea.

But we are top of the expected goals table and should have won every goal on xG.

Clearly we were the better team at Barnsley and should have won that one, not so sure we deserved a win at QPR though

Expected goals table: Championship, 15 Sep 2021

These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.

experimental361.com

Sky Blue Pete · Sep 17, 2021

Main thing shows for me is it’s not a fluke we are winning these games. Also the Collins miss alone probably makes the 1.4 on the conceded part

SlowerThanPlatt · Sep 17, 2021

Sky Blue Pete said:
Main thing shows for me is it’s not a fluke we are winning these games. Also the Collins miss alone probably makes the 1.4 on the conceded part

Nearly a goal and a half?

fernandopartridge · Sep 17, 2021

PVA said:
Now firstly I know expected goals is not everyone's cup of tea.

But we are top of the expected goals table and should have won every goal on xG.

Clearly we were the better team at Barnsley and should have won that one, not so sure we deserved a win at QPR though

Expected goals table: Championship, 15 Sep 2021

These alternative league tables are calculated using expected goals (as seen in my match timelines). There’s a full explanation in the first post here.

experimental361.com

The logic on the expected goals against is the wrong way round. It should be green negative and red positive for that measure.

Sky Blue Pete · Sep 17, 2021

fernandopartridge said:
The logic on the expected goals against is the wrong way round. It should be green negative and red positive for that measure.

It means what you think it means though

lord_garrincha · Sep 17, 2021

Sky Blue Pete said:
the Collins miss alone probably makes the 1.4 on the conceded part

Like it! It was harder to miss at any level.

Philosoraptor · Sep 17, 2021

I wonder why Barnsley are last?

Oh, wait.

Happy_Martian · Sep 17, 2021

QPR would have been a different game if we'd taken our first half chances. Instead, once QPR got their first, we had to change impetus (and our two strikers ??!!) to get back into it.

cooperskyblue · Sep 17, 2021

I think you always have to take Xg with a pinch of salt. However I distinctly remember last season being like 25 games in and we hadn't got a single win on the Xg table.
So there certainly is a massive upturn in our chance creation and defensive solidity.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Sep 18, 2021

Basically we're underperforming slightly!

PUSB-We_are_going_up · Sep 18, 2021

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Basically we're underperforming slightly!

All I have to say is, Premiership

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Sep 24, 2025

Thought I'd start having a quick look at our xG/xGA 'results' to see how we'd be doing in comparison to reality. A bit surprising in places.

Hull D 0 - 0 (0.87 - 0.45)
Derby W 3 - 1 (3.26 - 1.48)
QPR D 1 - 1 (1.11 - 0.64)
Oxford L 1 - 2 (1.12 - 1.65)
Norwich W 4 - 0 (4.02 - 0.15)
Leicester L 0 - 1 (0.40 - 0.97)

xG 10.78
xGA 5.34

Stats taken from BBC.
For clarity I have designated Hull a draw as the difference between xG and xGA in under 0.5, whereas I would normally round up/down if over/under 0.5

Cup games
Luton 2.61 - 1.78
Millwall 1.65 - 0.60

So on xG we should have been in the third round.

SBAndy · Sep 25, 2025

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Thought I'd start having a quick look at our xG/xGA 'results' to see how we'd be doing in comparison to reality. A bit surprising in places.

Hull D 0 - 0 (0.87 - 0.45)
Derby W 3 - 1 (3.26 - 1.48)
QPR D 1 - 1 (1.11 - 0.64)
Oxford L 1 - 2 (1.12 - 1.65)
Norwich W 4 - 0 (4.02 - 0.15)
Leicester L 0 - 1 (0.40 - 0.97)

xG 10.78
xGA 5.34

Stats taken from BBC.
For clarity I have designated Hull a draw as the difference between xG and xGA in under 0.5, whereas I would normally round up/down if over/under 0.5

Cup games
Luton 2.61 - 1.78
Millwall 1.65 - 0.60

So on xG we should have been in the third round.

You can’t really use it in isolated game situations IMO. Much better to look at the overall xG difference to judge whether a side is creating lots of chances or conceding lots of chances.

fernandopartridge · Sep 25, 2025

We have definitely improved xG under Lampard. Our xG table final placing. The number in brackets is the lowest placed promoted team in the xG table to show that it generally correlates with league performance.

21/22 2nd (7th Forest)
22/23 10th (7th Luton)
23/24 9th (3rd Ipswich)
24/25 3rd (7th Burnley)

robbiekeane · Sep 25, 2025

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Thought I'd start having a quick look at our xG/xGA 'results' to see how we'd be doing in comparison to reality. A bit surprising in places.

Hull D 0 - 0 (0.87 - 0.45)
Derby W 3 - 1 (3.26 - 1.48)
QPR D 1 - 1 (1.11 - 0.64)
Oxford L 1 - 2 (1.12 - 1.65)
Norwich W 4 - 0 (4.02 - 0.15)
Leicester L 0 - 1 (0.40 - 0.97)

xG 10.78
xGA 5.34

Stats taken from BBC.
For clarity I have designated Hull a draw as the difference between xG and xGA in under 0.5, whereas I would normally round up/down if over/under 0.5

Cup games
Luton 2.61 - 1.78
Millwall 1.65 - 0.60

So on xG we should have been in the third round.

the approach you have used for determining if a game is won or lost is wild lol

stupot07 · Sep 25, 2025

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Thought I'd start having a quick look at our xG/xGA 'results' to see how we'd be doing in comparison to reality. A bit surprising in places.

Hull D 0 - 0 (0.87 - 0.45)
Derby W 3 - 1 (3.26 - 1.48)
QPR D 1 - 1 (1.11 - 0.64)
Oxford L 1 - 2 (1.12 - 1.65)
Norwich W 4 - 0 (4.02 - 0.15)
Leicester L 0 - 1 (0.40 - 0.97)

xG 10.78
xGA 5.34

Stats taken from BBC.
For clarity I have designated Hull a draw as the difference between xG and xGA in under 0.5, whereas I would normally round up/down if over/under 0.5

Cup games
Luton 2.61 - 1.78
Millwall 1.65 - 0.60

So on xG we should have been in the third round.

Derby is slight inflated by the pen and BTA scoring from 6 inches, that's virtually 1.8 xg on its own

Norwich was a proper 0-0 battering.

skybluecam · Sep 25, 2025

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Thought I'd start having a quick look at our xG/xGA 'results' to see how we'd be doing in comparison to reality. A bit surprising in places.

Hull D 0 - 0 (0.87 - 0.45)
Derby W 3 - 1 (3.26 - 1.48)
QPR D 1 - 1 (1.11 - 0.64)
Oxford L 1 - 2 (1.12 - 1.65)
Norwich W 4 - 0 (4.02 - 0.15)
Leicester L 0 - 1 (0.40 - 0.97)

xG 10.78
xGA 5.34

Stats taken from BBC.
For clarity I have designated Hull a draw as the difference between xG and xGA in under 0.5, whereas I would normally round up/down if over/under 0.5

Cup games
Luton 2.61 - 1.78
Millwall 1.65 - 0.60

So on xG we should have been in the third round.

To do this properly you should do an xPts simulation

Snaily · Sep 25, 2025

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Thought I'd start having a quick look at our xG/xGA 'results' to see how we'd be doing in comparison to reality. A bit surprising in places.

Hull D 0 - 0 (0.87 - 0.45)
Derby W 3 - 1 (3.26 - 1.48)
QPR D 1 - 1 (1.11 - 0.64)
Oxford L 1 - 2 (1.12 - 1.65)
Norwich W 4 - 0 (4.02 - 0.15)
Leicester L 0 - 1 (0.40 - 0.97)

xG 10.78
xGA 5.34

Stats taken from BBC.
For clarity I have designated Hull a draw as the difference between xG and xGA in under 0.5, whereas I would normally round up/down if over/under 0.5

Cup games
Luton 2.61 - 1.78
Millwall 1.65 - 0.60

So on xG we should have been in the third round.

I think the main benefit of XG is to try and remove the binary effect of goals (ball hits inside of post and goes in v hits middle of post and goes out) to allow for a more consistent view on performance and therefore expectation of performance in the future. By using XG to determine 3-1-0 points on a match by match basis - particularly with an arbitrary 0.5 result margin - is removing a lot of the benefit.

itsabuzzard · Sep 25, 2025

Snaily said:
I think the main benefit of XG is to try and remove the binary effect of goals (ball hits inside of post and goes in v hits middle of post and goes out) to allow for a more consistent view on performance and therefore expectation of performance in the future. By using XG to determine 3-1-0 points on a match by match basis - particularly with an arbitrary 0.5 result margin - is removing a lot of the benefit.

Hmmmm

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