Embarrassing (8 Viewers)

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Well he loves his polls - a new Yougov poll said 80% thought the country was an economic mess and 60% thought it would get worse but he has always been a minority view kind of guy

Apparently Reform hit its cap at 15%… then again at 20%, 25%, 30% but don’t worry, their actual cap is 35% this time!

There’s widespread dissatisfaction on immigration, crime, the economy and welfare state. Yet, in typical high handedness, it’s all in our heads.

I’m sure someone mentioned how Labour are clearing up Truss’ mess… that damaged was being reversed before Labour was elected. The gilt yields have surpassed the rate of the mini-budget and the highest level since 1998. At the same moment, the government has significantly increased borrowing, the black hole has widened and there’s a coming reckoning from the financial markets and in my view, it’ll sweep away this government.

It’s something I mentioned pre-election and frankly, my economics knowledge is rudimentary at best.

 

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[skybluetony176]

Simple question: did we have human rights before the ECHR was created

The answer is yes, we did because of our long tradition of English Common Law. The ECHR started off as a ‘convention’ i.e. not a law that a government needs to follow. No EU nation has specifically codified the ECHR into their statute books.

The constitutional changes actually relate to the 1992 Maastricht Treaty which recognised the ECHR as the basis for interpreting EU Law.

Unless your argument only works if you believe human rights began in 1992.

You do understand that human rights aren’t binary, it’s not a case of you either have human rights or you don’t. It is possible to have a high standard of human rights in some areas and poor human rights in other areas? To say in a very simplistic way we had human rights before the ECHR therefore nothing will change is beyond moronic despite how obvious the real intentions are. They want to remove your safeguards, that’s you personally, forget people crossing the channel these are your rights they’re attacking. Just because they think you’re stupid doesn’t mean you have to indulge them. They want to leave the ECHR so they can rip up the laws of the 1998 human rights act that safeguards your rights and freedoms. It’s a Trojan horse nothing else.

 

[shmmeee]

Apparently Reform hit its cap at 15%… then again at 20%, 25%, 30% but don’t worry, their actual cap is 35% this time!

There’s widespread dissatisfaction on immigration, crime, the economy and welfare state. Yet, in typical high handedness, it’s all in our heads.

I’m sure someone mentioned how Labour are clearing up Truss’ mess… that damaged was being reversed before Labour was elected. The gilt yields have surpassed the rate of the mini-budget and the highest level since 1998. At the same moment, the government has significantly increased borrowing, the black hole has widened and there’s a coming reckoning from the financial markets and in my view, it’ll sweep away this government.

It’s something I mentioned pre-election and frankly, my economics knowledge is rudimentary at best.

No it’s always been 30% from polling on attitudes and what we’ve seen in other countries but whatever you need to invent I guess

 

[Captain Dart]

Apparently Reform hit its cap at 15%… then again at 20%, 25%, 30% but don’t worry, their actual cap is 35% this time!

There’s widespread dissatisfaction on immigration, crime, the economy and welfare state. Yet, in typical high handedness, it’s all in our heads.

I’m sure someone mentioned how Labour are clearing up Truss’ mess… that damaged was being reversed before Labour was elected. The gilt yields have surpassed the rate of the mini-budget and the highest level since 1998. At the same moment, the government has significantly increased borrowing, the black hole has widened and there’s a coming reckoning from the financial markets and in my view, it’ll sweep away this government.

It’s something I mentioned pre-election and frankly, my economics knowledge is rudimentary at best.

Can't be long before Rachel is asking for an IMF loan like Denis Healey had to.

 

[shmmeee]

Can't be long before Rachel is asking for an IMF loan like Denis Healey had to.

Just when I think your opinions can’t get any madder you always have one more Twitter addled outburst.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

No it’s always been 30% from polling on attitudes and what we’ve seen in other countries but whatever you need to invent I guess

There are has been a few polls where they poll at 31-33%. Labour’s polling has collapsed and we’re still in the ‘honeymoon’ period for most governments. My view is that things will deteriorate but let’s see how that pans out.

Hawking at the polls this early in a parliament is typically a pointless exercise because the ranges are within a margin error. What is clear at this stage is the extent to which the public has turned on Labour.

 

[Captain Dart]

Just when I think your opinions can’t get any madder you always have one more Twitter addled outburst.

Dear lord you must have had a sense of humour bypass.

More seriously Starmer will probably sack her or move her elsewhere in the next reshuffle and appoint Torsten Bell as Chancellor, he won't do any better.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

There are has been a few polls where they poll at 31-33%. Labour’s polling has collapsed and we’re still in the ‘honeymoon’ period for most governments. My view is that things will deteriorate but let’s see how that pans out.

Hawking at the polls this early in a parliament is typically a pointless exercise because the ranges are within a margin error. What is clear at this stage is the extent to which the public has turned on Labour.

Polls are good for recording momentum shifts, and it doesn’t take a genius to assume that Labour would get a pummelling if the election were tomorrow. 4 years to run though and much can change. I hope for the country’s sake they do, a strong Labour government I still believe can put things right.

This mob are not that.

 

[CovValleyBoy]

Polls are good for recording momentum shifts, and it doesn’t take a genius to assume that Labour would get a pummelling if the election were tomorrow. 4 years to run though and much can change. I hope for the country’s sake they do, a strong Labour government I still believe can put things right.

This mob are not that.

Mob. That description feels so accurate.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Polls are good for recording momentum shifts, and it doesn’t take a genius to assume that Labour would get a pummelling if the election were tomorrow. 4 years to run though and much can change. I hope for the country’s sake they do, a strong Labour government I still believe can put things right.

This mob are not that.

Immigration is the most toxic thing in our political discourse right now. The reason being is that it’s an issue where there’s been repeated failures from both Labour and Conservative governments. Is the human rights solicitor Kier Starmer really the right person to take decisive political action to turn the tide? My view in 2024 was no and the public opinion is in line with this.

Starmer’s personal poll ratings are worse than Sunak’s and that was off the back of 14 years of failure and the Liz Truss omnishambles. Again, we’re only 1 year in and there are signs things will get worse.

The big problem Labour has is that going into the 2024 election, there was no ‘big vision’ for the country that transformative governments like Attlee, Thatcher and Blair get elected on. Why is this a problem?

There is no manifesto policies for the parliamentary Labour Party to back. Any unpopular ideas this government has, such as cutting benefits or cutting the WFA, will be batted back by Labour backbenchers. Which is entirely understandable from a self-preservation perspective because many of those said MPs stand little chance of reelection.

Looking forward to the budget, the government needs to raise taxes or cut spending. First, they’ll try to raise taxes on things like pensions, ‘capital gains’ on houses and NI on rental income. My personal view is that these taxes won’t raise the sums expected (like the NI on employers and private school VAT raids). Which will lead to the unpopular decision to raise direct taxations like NI, income and/or VAT. Doubly unpopular because it will break manifesto pledges.

All the while, the gilt yields have risen past the peak under Truss. There’s real pressure to keep public spending in check because the increasing costs of servicing government puts more pressure on government spending and so it becomes a vicious cycle.

You call Reform a mob and 25-33% of the country is not a mob. The Tories and Labour have been given numerous opportunities to solve this. Through conventional means, their attempts have failed to reign these issues in using the ECHR and HRA frameworks.

Personally, I’d feel much more comfortable if the Tories were the party of opposition, after all I don’t like the disruption in the political system. Why would anyone trust them on these issues? In 2015, they were elected to keep net migration at 100k and in their last year that figure was closer to 1m.

Voters shouldn’t trust them and had every right to elect Labour to fix things. Starmer has made similar mistakes to Sunak but the numbers have got worse.

Temperamentally, the government does not have a good grip on this. Today, the Home Office is arguing the asylum seekers rights trump the concerns of the Epping protestors. The pretext of the protests there was a sexual assault of a minor by a hotel-housed asylum seeker.

How can anyone blame ordinary people for thinking this government is not for them? You actually can’t.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Immigration is the most toxic thing in our political discourse right now. The reason being is that it’s an issue where there’s been repeated failures from both Labour and Conservative governments. Is the human rights solicitor Kier Starmer really the right person to take decisive political action to turn the tide? My view in 2024 was no and the public opinion is in line with this.

Starmer’s personal poll ratings are worse than Sunak’s and that was off the back of 14 years of failure and the Liz Truss omnishambles. Again, we’re only 1 year in and there are signs things will get worse.

The big problem Labour has is that going into the 2024 election, there was no ‘big vision’ for the country that transformative governments like Attlee, Thatcher and Blair get elected on. Why is this a problem?

There is no manifesto policies for the parliamentary Labour Party to back. Any unpopular ideas this government has, such as cutting benefits or cutting the WFA, will be batted back by Labour backbenchers. Which is entirely understandable from a self-preservation perspective because many of those said MPs stand little chance of reelection.

Looking forward to the budget, the government needs to raise taxes or cut spending. First, they’ll try to raise taxes on things like pensions, ‘capital gains’ on houses and NI on rental income. My personal view is that these taxes won’t raise the sums expected (like the NI on employers and private school VAT raids). Which will lead to the unpopular decision to raise direct taxations like NI, income and/or VAT. Doubly unpopular because it will break manifesto pledges.

All the while, the gilt yields have risen past the peak under Truss. There’s real pressure to keep public spending in check because the increasing costs of servicing government puts more pressure on government spending and so it becomes a vicious cycle.

You call Reform a mob and 25-33% of the country is not a mob. The Tories and Labour have been given numerous opportunities to solve this. Through conventional means, their attempts have failed to reign these issues in using the ECHR and HRA frameworks.

Personally, I’d feel much more comfortable if the Tories were the party of opposition, after all I don’t like the disruption in the political system. Why would anyone trust them on these issues? In 2015, they were elected to keep net migration at 100k and in their last year that figure was closer to 1m.

Voters shouldn’t trust them and had every right to elect Labour to fix things. Starmer has made similar mistakes to Sunak but the numbers have got worse.

Temperamentally, the government does not have a good grip on this. Today, the Home Office is arguing the asylum seekers rights trump the concerns of the Epping protestors. The pretext of the protests there was a sexual assault of a minor by a hotel-housed asylum seeker.

How can anyone blame ordinary people for thinking this government is not for them? You actually can’t.

I don’t think it is for me either but I am appalled that yet even worse will follow them in. I’m pretty desperate for them to just pull their fingers out and effing do something.

They could have campaigned boldly last year, they chose to make like Gareth Southgate against San Marino and play cautiously anyway. Genuinely shmmeee, PVA and my Tory mate are the only ones I’ve heard sing their praises.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I don’t think it is for me either but I am appalled that yet even worse will follow them in. I’m pretty desperate for them to just pull their fingers out and effing do something.

They could have campaigned boldly last year, they chose to make like Gareth Southgate against San Marino and play cautiously anyway. Genuinely shmmeee, PVA and my Tory mate are the only ones I’ve heard sing their praises.

Agreed. They ran a good campaign to win the election.

Case in point is the ‘smash the gangs’ rhetoric. Undeniably popular on the campaign trail, but 12 months later, small boat crossings are significantly up.

The economic program was pretty sparse to avoid scrutiny. Understandable. However, when you implement your plans that people didn’t vote for because it wasn’t in your manifesto, things unravel.

Ironically, increasing NI on employers was a Reform policy, albeit on non-UK citizens and that was derided as an economically harmful - this . We know that to be true now because since Reeves NI tax hike, unemployment has gone up, job vacancies down and simultaneously out of work benefits has gone up.

I’m no economics expert and did warn everyone pre-election that the episode with Liz Truss was a warning shot to a Labour government wanting to increase spending. This is happening in real time and the gilt yields are (still) increasing and which increases government spending.

There’s a few economists out there that reckon the UK and France are headed towards a IMF bailout. Personally, I find that talk a bit apocalyptic and probably hyperbolic. 12 months on from winning power, this talk is a bad.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Agreed. They ran a good campaign to win the election.

Case in point is the ‘smash the gangs’ rhetoric. Undeniably popular on the campaign trail, but 12 months later, small boat crossings are significantly up.

The economic program was pretty sparse to avoid scrutiny. Understandable. However, when you implement your plans that people didn’t vote for because it wasn’t in your manifesto, things unravel.

Ironically, increasing NI on employers was a Reform policy, albeit on non-UK citizens and that was derided as an economically harmful - this . We know that to be true now because since Reeves NI tax hike, unemployment has gone up, job vacancies down and simultaneously out of work benefits has gone up.

I’m no economics expert and did warn everyone pre-election that the episode with Liz Truss was a warning shot to a Labour government wanting to increase spending. This is happening in real time and the gilt yields are (still) increasing and which increases government spending.

There’s a few economists out there that reckon the UK and France are headed towards a IMF bailout. Personally, I find that talk a bit apocalyptic and probably hyperbolic. 12 months on from winning power, this talk is a bad.

Immigration is your big issue, which is fair enough. For me it is the cost of living, which Reeves has yet again said is going up even further. It sank Joe Biden and it will sink Starmer.

 

[DT-R]

Did they run a good campaign? Really? From where I stood, they just turned up and "weren't the tories". They were guaranteed to get in because they weren't the tories. A blind man could see it was a shit show and that this was going to happen when they got in, but people still blindly voted for them because they weren't the tories!

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[chiefdave]

Did they run a good campaign? Really? From where I stood, they just turned up and "weren't the tories". They were guaranteed to get in because they weren't the tories. A blind man could see it was a shit show and that this was going to happen when they got in, but people still blindly voted for them because they weren't the tories!

We were told this was political genius and we just had to wait until they'd cruised to victory to see a tidal wave of radical policies that would transform the country.

 

[DT-R]

We were told this was political genius and we just had to wait until they'd cruised to victory to see a tidal wave of radical policies that would transform the country.

Which, like I say, a blind man could see was bullshit, but........ still voted anyways. That said, the people can't be blamed, its not like they had much of a choice. Same old.shit, or new shit! New shit won.

Sent from my SM-S711B using Tapatalk

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Immigration is your big issue, which is fair enough. For me it is the cost of living, which Reeves has yet again said is going up even further. It sank Joe Biden and it will sink Starmer.

No, my biggest concern with immigration is that it leads to widespread civil disorder.

Suppose we elect Reform to deliver on immigration, legal and illegal… what comes next if they were fail? It’ll be something ugly in my view.

That’s my genuine concern if immigration isn’t solved.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

No, my biggest concern with immigration is that it leads to widespread civil disorder.

Suppose we elect Reform to deliver on immigration, legal and illegal… what comes next if they were fail? It’ll be something ugly in my view.

That’s my genuine concern if immigration isn’t solved.

I just disagree with you on this and that is that. No harm done though.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

No, my biggest concern with immigration is that it leads to widespread civil disorder.

Suppose we elect Reform to deliver on immigration, legal and illegal… what comes next if they were fail? It’ll be something ugly in my view.

That’s my genuine concern if immigration isn’t solved.

In that case expect widespread civil disorder.

Last election Reform's manifesto left loads of loopholes allowing immigration in. What they were big on was transfer of wealth to the rich, which having a low pay immigrant workforce suppressing wages helps to achieve.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I just disagree with you on this and that is that. No harm done though.

It’s not a competition and your viewpoint is v much if the cost of living was alleviated, there wouldn’t be as many concerns over immigration. Which I disagree with because these concerns predate the CoL crisis.

It goes without saying that cost of living is a massive problem that the government needs to get to grips. Inflation of groceries is something in the region of 30% since 2022 or something like that.

In that case expect widespread civil disorder.

Last election Reform's manifesto left loads of loopholes allowing immigration in. What they were big on was transfer of wealth to the rich, which having a low pay immigrant workforce suppressing wages helps to achieve.

Interestingly, Reform is appealing to more traditional left wing economic policies to appease its broad base. Even Ash Sarkar of Novara media was stating that she’d underestimated Farage.

My viewpoint is that a party who proposed a left wing populist economic platform that was socially conservative (particularly on immigration) would do v well electorally.

Reform’s manifesto in 2024 wasn’t credible. There was next to zero likelihood they’d win and Farage probably only stood because he was goaded into it.

 

[itsabuzzard]

I’m amazed you can type because you clearly can’t read.

Thank you for making me laugh out loud!
This is not a comment on any of the views expressed in this thread.