Do you want to discuss boring politics? (22 Viewers)

[MalcSB]

I mean they’re getting a universally bad service. Are we really defending fly tipping to stick it to Labour now? What’s next? Leaving dog turds on pavements is a great British freedom?

Of course I’m not defending fly tipping. I think that piles of rubbish left festering because a paid for service isn’t being provided is fly tipping itself and should be treated as such.it may well mean that working people would have money taken from their wallets on top of what is already being taken in council tax.

 

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[shmmeee]

I'm not sure how that's relevant? You were all arguing about Runcorn and the 15k not the locals. The GE was the Conservatives worst defeat in over 100 years.

Id' also add that as the last locals happened mid-term of the last gov't then surely a good part of the swing had already happened or that would counter what some are using as the reasons on here for different outcomes. You've quoted it against my post that the Conservative collapse had already happened.

Can you link it for the hard of thinking, of which I'm clearly a part this morning.

Local elections run on a different timetable. The councils elected today were last elected in 2021 when the Tories were still riding high post pandemic.

 

[rob9872]

Local elections run on a different timetable. The councils elected today were last elected in 2021 when the Tories were still riding high post pandemic.

I know!!! I even said that. It's why I said the collapse happened at the GE in response to you and GIMOC arguing about a 15k swing in Runcorn!!

 

[shmmeee]

I know!!! I even said that. It's why I said the collapse happened at the GE in response to you and GIMOC arguing about a 15k swing in Runcorn!!

Oh that. Not sure swing is the word in a four way tie, but government is unpopular and only lost by six votes. Most to Labour voters not turning out it seems. It’s really not that bad. I’d fully expect that seat to be Labour and Labour to win the next GE based on what we’ve seen so far.

 

[GIMOC]

Local elections run on a different timetable. The councils elected today were last elected in 2021 when the Tories were still riding high post pandemic.

thought you said who ever the government is have a terrible local elections?

tories were in power and dominated them so throws your piss excuse our the window

 

[Grendel]

Oh that. Not sure swing is the word in a four way tie, but government is unpopular and only lost by six votes. Most to Labour voters not turning out it seems. It’s really not that bad. I’d fully expect that seat to be Labour and Labour to win the next GE based on what we’ve seen so far.

The swing was 17% from labour to reform

 

[MalcSB]

They aren’t it’s a fallow year. Why do you think there’s nothing up in Coventry. You understand how local elections work right?

You have just provided your own summary re no local elections in West Yorkshire. It’s how local elections work!

 

[SkyBlueCharlie9]

So, Nigel is expected to get your vote and full support?

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Nice deduction .....

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Oh that. Not sure swing is the word in a four way tie, but government is unpopular and only lost by six votes. Most to Labour voters not turning out it seems. It’s really not that bad. I’d fully expect that seat to be Labour and Labour to win the next GE based on what we’ve seen so far.

Labour were expected to win and they’ve lost a v safe seat. It is bad and doesn’t bode well in the seats where Reform’s vote share was much stronger. This government, despite the huge majority, was elected on a historically low vote share % so any moderate swings away from them could mean they lose 100-200 seats easily.

The Tories batted off huge swings as routine when they lost to the Lib Dems and Labour and they got trounced at the next election.

There’s still 3-4 years left of the parliament so a lot could happen but I can’t see how they build back their popularity? It just seems that Labour are the wrong government at the wrong time, right now.

It is almost definitely too early to call it, but as things stand, the only pathway Labour has to win the next election is if Reform and Conservative cannibalise each other’s vote shares. That assumes would-be Green and Lib Dem voters throw their lot in with Labour and I doubt those voters will vote tactically on the scale they did in 2024.

 

[SkyBlueCharlie9]

are you for real?

they over turned a 15k majority for an mp and took plenty of votes of Labour and not just tories. not bad for a party only created only a few years ago. if this doesn’t show you the country discontent to starmer nothing will

keep burying that head in the sand

View attachment 42882

It's as much about discontent with black female leader of Conservative & Unionist party, as it is about discontentment with Starmer.
End of the day Reform candidates are mostly nutjobs and their hatred and lack of intelligence will get found out, especially at local level of politics.
Need to be taken seriously though by Labour & Conservatives at national level!

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It's as much about discontent with black female leader of Conservative & Unionist party, as it is about discontentment with Starmer.
End of the day Reform candidates are mostly nutjobs and their hatred and lack of intelligence will get found out, especially at local level of politics.
Need to be taken seriously though by Labour & Conservatives at national level!

The first line is ridiculous.

Success in the polls for Reform will literally be made or break. Instead of sniping from the sidelines at both Labour and Conservatives, they actually have run local governments and have a record to defend going into future elections.

 

[shmmeee]

Labour were expected to win and they’ve lost a v safe seat. It is bad and doesn’t bode well in the seats where Reform’s vote share was much stronger. This government, despite the huge majority, was elected on a historically low vote share % so any moderate swings away from them could mean they lose 100-200 seats easily.

The Tories batted off huge swings as routine when they lost to the Lib Dems and Labour and they got trounced at the next election.

There’s still 3-4 years left of the parliament so a lot could happen but I can’t see how they build back their popularity? It just seems that Labour are the wrong government at the wrong time, right now.

It is almost definitely too early to call it, but as things stand, the only pathway Labour has to win the next election is if Reform and Conservative cannibalise each other’s vote shares. That assumes would-be Green and Lib Dem voters throw their lot in with Labour and I doubt those voters will vote tactically on the scale they did in 2024.

I think you’re well off and the majority of people who follow election data seem to think the same. By elections and locals are not the same as GEs. I wouldn’t be panicking any more today if I were Labour strategists than I was last week. This kind of swing happens in a by election once a parliament on average. I’d be more worried if I were a Tory that Reform seems to have replaced me as the opposition.

 

[shmmeee]

The first line is ridiculous.

Success in the polls for Reform will literally be made or break. Instead of sniping from the sidelines at both Labour and Conservatives, they actually have run local governments and have a record to defend going into future elections.

They are going to be hilariously bad because this stuff takes capacity that takes time to build up. Unless they can nick a load of experienced Tories.

 

[SkyBlueCharlie9]

The first line is ridiculous.

Success in the polls for Reform will literally be made or break. Instead of sniping from the sidelines at both Labour and Conservatives, they actually have run local governments and have a record to defend going into future elections.

Racist, mysogonistic Conservatives will not tend to vote for her. Reform is the home for these people and those persuaded by the rhetoric of stopping the boats.

 

[Grendel]

It's as much about discontent with black female leader of Conservative & Unionist party, as it is about discontentment with Starmer.
End of the day Reform candidates are mostly nutjobs and their hatred and lack of intelligence will get found out, especially at local level of politics.
Need to be taken seriously though by Labour & Conservatives at national level!

The members voted for said black female leader vs a very white male opponent

 

[Grendel]

Racist, mysogonistic Conservatives will not tend to vote for her. Reform is the home for these people and those persuaded by the rhetoric of stopping the boats.

Clearly given it’s the only party to have returned a female as PM (five times in elections) and the only party to have had an ethnic PM it’s stopped in racism abd misogyny

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I think you’re well off and the majority of people who follow election data seem to think the same. By elections and locals are not the same as GEs. I wouldn’t be panicking any more today if I were Labour strategists than I was last week. This kind of swing happens in a by election once a parliament on average. I’d be more worried if I were a Tory that Reform seems to have replaced me as the opposition.

These polls happen towards the end of a parliament, not 9 months in.

Sir John Curtice called out Bridget Phillipson on the BBC when she tried to trot out the same tired cliches. Labour were elected because the electorate were fed with the Tories and they’re getting fed up with Labour now.

In the Red Wall, Reform had already supplanted the Tories as the main opposition and Runcorn was an exception in 2024. The expectation was still that Labour would hold on (just).

In national polls, YouGov has Reform is sitting at 26% which leads the Tories (20%) and Labour (23%) - other polls are within 1-2% of one another.

The traditional parties are in trouble.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Racist, mysogonistic Conservatives will not tend to vote for her. Reform is the home for these people and those persuaded by the rhetoric of stopping the boats.

This is detached from reality.

Have any of the so-called non-racist parties ever been close to electing an ethnic minority leader?

On misogyny, has Labour ever had a a female leader? I’m sure that the Tories have had more female leaders than the ‘progressive’ parties combined.

 

[rob9872]

Racist, mysogonistic Conservatives will not tend to vote for her. Reform is the home for these people and those persuaded by the rhetoric of stopping the boats.

There's only one person who keeps bring up race Charlie and that's you.

 

[Sick Boy]

No, but they have massively put their foot in the door and shown they are now a serious contender as an opposition.
Unfortunately the way votes work they'll struggle to get anywhere in a general election (over half a million more votes than Lib Dems but only 5 seats compared to 72) but they're shaping politics from the sidelines. The country is waking up to the woke agenda and they're fed up with it! Labour only got in because it was either them or the tories. It used to be that a "protest" vote for any party other than Lab or Con was a wasted vote. It's starting to seem that a vote for either of those 2 is now the wasted vote!
Whether people like it or not, politics is changing, people are fed up of the same old, main stream politics.
Like Farage or not, he's changing the way politics works.

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How exactly is he changing it?

He’s also been part of ‘mainstream politics’ for a decade.

 

[CCFCSteve]

When your only ideas to collect revenue involve you punching down (not up) then the Tory label is more than justified.

Changed non dom status/tax which has seen 11000 millionaires leave the country (worked well), closed loophole to stop rich using farm as inheritance tax avoidance (cack handed but can understand intent), stopped rich using pension scheme inheritance to avoid tax, frozen higher rate tax levels, increased capital gains tax and increased taxes on business rather than on the general population (big mistake when going for growth)

Collecting loads more revenue from the super rich is this ideological nonsense that keeps being pushed as some kind of solution. Noble and what we all want, but it’s frankly bollocks. Unless there is a global effort on tax the main tax generators are unfortunately from the general population as we can’t all fuck off elsewhere if we don’t like it.

The main question everyone should focus on is do we want to pay more tax for better public services and who can best ensure that these are delivered fairly and efficiently

Ps everyone’s forgetting that we blew tens/hundreds of billions on Covid, lockdowns etc, which is why our debt to gdp and therefore debt servicing costs, are so high. nobody seems to want to pay for it even though large swathes of the country were closed and loads of people sat at home doing fuck all for weeks. What did people expect

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

Clearly given it’s the only party to have returned a female as PM (five times in elections) and the only party to have had an ethnic PM it’s stopped in racism abd misogyny

And that was a car crash because Cleverley was clearly the best choice but the rumour is he tried to get his supporters to vote for Jenrick to tactically get rid of Badenoch because he saw him easily defeating him.

 

[OffenhamSkyBlue]

He’s just won the biggest majority in years. starmer will be in charge of Labour going into the next GE.

the locals always sting the standing government, come General Election, all reform will do is split the Tory vote

The Conservatives won more council seats and control of councils than ever before in 2021, even after 11 years in power.

The degree of swing away from a government in a by-election 10 months into a new parliament is, i understand, unprecedented.

Reform campaigned on a "Stop the Boats" agenda in the CC/mayoral elections. To those who voted for them, what can a county councillor do to influence immigration policy? What is their stand on SEN school transport, or education, or the state of the roads, or provision of adult and child social care? I may have blinked and missed it!

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

The Conservatives won more council seats and control of councils than ever before in 2021, even after 11 years in power.

The degree of swing away from a government in a by-election 10 months into a new parliament is, i understand, unprecedented.

Reform campaigned on a "Stop the Boats" agenda in the CC/mayoral elections. To those who voted for them, what can a county councillor do to influence immigration policy? What is their stand on SEN school transport, or education, or the state of the roads, or provision of adult and child social care? I may have blinked and missed it!

Same as the Gaza independent vote - none of them have anymore policies. I mean I’m all for stopping Israeli genocide but the councillors should be trying to sort out why the bins aren’t getting collected - fucking ridiculous.

I asked one of them at the GE what their other policies were, just kept swinging about to stopping arms sales to Israel

 

[Ccfcisparks]

 

[SBAndy]

Changed non dom status/tax which has seen 11000 millionaires leave the country (worked well), closed loophole to stop rich using farm as inheritance tax avoidance (cack handed but can understand intent), stopped rich using pension scheme inheritance to avoid tax, frozen higher rate tax levels, increased capital gains tax and increased taxes on business rather than on the general population (big mistake when going for growth)

Collecting loads more revenue from the super rich is this ideological nonsense that keeps being pushed as some kind of solution. Noble and what we all want, but it’s frankly bollocks. Unless there is a global effort on tax the main tax generators are unfortunately from the general population as we can’t all fuck off elsewhere if we don’t like it.

The main question everyone should focus on is do we want to pay more tax for better public services and who can best ensure that these are delivered fairly and efficiently

Ps everyone’s forgetting that we blew tens/hundreds of billions on Covid, lockdowns etc, which is why our debt to gdp and therefore debt servicing costs, are so high. nobody seems to want to pay for it even though large swathes of the country were closed and loads of people sat at home doing fuck all for weeks. What did people expect

Don’t know the data behind it, and I think I’ve floated it before, but it would intrigue me whether you could reduce income tax in some capacity and backfill the deficit with some ‘wealth’ tax. Seen a few graphs on how people try to avoid breaking the £100k income threshold because of the impact it has. Encourage people to earn/spend rather than hoard.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Don’t know the data behind it, and I think I’ve floated it before, but it would intrigue me whether you could reduce income tax in some capacity and backfill the deficit with some ‘wealth’ tax. Seen a few graphs on how people try to avoid breaking the £100k income threshold because of the impact it has. Encourage people to earn/spend rather than hoard.

Wealth taxes are not a new idea. Back in the 1970s, the then Labour government drew up plans for one and decided it was an administrative and political nightmare to implement.

 

[David O'Day]

The Conservatives won more council seats and control of councils than ever before in 2021, even after 11 years in power.

The degree of swing away from a government in a by-election 10 months into a new parliament is, i understand, unprecedented.

Reform campaigned on a "Stop the Boats" agenda in the CC/mayoral elections. To those who voted for them, what can a county councillor do to influence immigration policy? What is their stand on SEN school transport, or education, or the state of the roads, or provision of adult and child social care? I may have blinked and missed it!

2021 isn't a valid comparison, that was in the wake of covid when the general belief was that the conservatives had done a great job

 

[PVA]

The degree of swing away from a government in a by-election 10 months into a new parliament is, i understand, unprecedented.

Well how many by elections have there been 10 months into a new parliament?

Tories suffered two defeats with swings of 34% and 28% in '93, around 12-14 months into a new parliament.

And 21% in 2016 after 18 months.

 

[OffenhamSkyBlue]

2021 isn't a valid comparison, that was in the wake of covid when the general belief was that the conservatives had done a great job

Point taken, but surely the size of the Labour landslide last July is an indication that people wanted a Labour government.

 

[Captain Dart]

Point taken, but surely the size of the Labour landslide last July is an indication that people wanted a Labour government.

They didn't want another Tory government, their vote collapsed rather than Labour's increasing.

 

[DT-R]

How exactly is he changing it?

He’s also been part of ‘mainstream politics’ for a decade.

He literally forced a vote that seen us leave the EU. How exactly is he changing it????

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[GIMOC]

2021 isn't a valid comparison, that was in the wake of covid when the general belief was that the conservatives had done a great job

lol

that is the funniest thing I read today

no one said how well tories done with Covid

tory downfall started with the witch-hunt of Boris

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Reform have already taken 15 seats off the Tories in the Warwickshire election.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Well how many by elections have there been 10 months into a new parliament?

Tories suffered two defeats with swings of 34% and 28% in '93, around 12-14 months into a new parliament.

And 21% in 2016 after 18 months.

The Tories had been government for 14-15 years back then, likewise in 2016, it was 18 months into a second parliament so nearly 7 years. Looking at the elections in 1997 and even 2017 (the tories lost their majority), this example shows these swings do matter and are dismissed at your peril.

Whichever way you cut the cloth, it’s a dramatic turnaround in a safe Labour seat. It’s a troubling sign for the Tories as well.