shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Point of order: you’re taking 2017 to 2019 changes which will minimise Brexit losses and maximise Remain losses. Should take 2015-2019, 2017 was very much a one off election in terms of voting patterns.
Not really true, is it?
Labour haemorrhaged votes on both sides of the Brexit debate. Lost around 1 million votes to the Lib Dem’s and the Greens and about 800 thousand votes to the Brexit Party and the Tories. The Remainer’s were not happy happy with Labour lack of commitment to a second referendum whilst the Leaver’s weren’t happy at Labour’s lack of commitment to Brexit.
In the aftermath of the election, Momentum campaigners and even McDonnell conceded the manifesto program was meant for a 10 year government. On the doorstep, campaigners found people didn’t find the overall Labour offering to be credible.
Having popular policies is one thing, but it has to fit into a wider, viable program for government. Which was lacking a coherent policy on the issue of the day: Brexit.
Exactly. The perception does not equal the truth. I've not been paying attention over the last few years but I know in reliability surveys Jag were one of the top rated brands but amongst the general public it still had that 'will it break down?' mentality towards it, as had any British name due to an archaic opinion based on the BL period of the 1970's. Mercs on the otherhand people had an opinion were bulletproof despite the build quality and reliability have fallen of a cliff.
You can then relate that to politics where you've got an opinion of Labour's abilities largely based still on a view from the 1970's whereas the Tories have a reputation enhanced way beyond what they are actually achieving.
Perception can also equal the truth - and the majority of people I suspect if surveyed in a cosy Labour focus group would list working class association and trade union association as massive negatives to voting for them but they would just be ignored
Point of order: you’re taking 2017 to 2019 changes which will minimise Brexit losses and maximise Remain losses. Should take 2015-2019, 2017 was very much a one off election in terms of voting patterns.
Perception can also equal the truth - and the majority of people I suspect if surveyed in a cosy Labour focus group would list working class association and trade union association as massive negatives to voting for them but they would just be ignored
With all due respect, this kind of thinking is exactly why Labour finds itself out of touch with the electorate.
The party just doesn’t seem capable of confronting its own electoral failures. Generally, its traditional working class base feels like the Labour Party is a party for the cities and middle class graduates. Brexit accelerated the disconnect for a number of reasons as, frankly, the Labour establishment failed to understand why people voted for Brexit in the first place. Increasingly, fringe social issues and a fixation on identity politics has only exasperated the disconnect between the Party and its traditional base.
It’s also worth noting that Labour has literally given up and made no effort to try and discredit the SNP to win back some Scottish seats. Hence, you’ve got the Tories as the second largest Scottish party now.
The Labour Party has shown nothing it’s learned anything from its wipeout in Scotland, and risks the same thing across the Red Wall.
There are serious issues with the Labour Party that it needs to confront or it’ll face electoral oblivion and/or extinction.
There are serious issues with the Labour Party that it needs to confront or it’ll face electoral oblivion and/or extinction.
Or at the very least, managed some kind of pact with the Lib Dems. They only moved to full-on revoke because Labour took their policy when it looked popular, but they explained it less well than the Libs had done... mainly because they refused to say what position they'd be championing in said second referendum!Was it?
The UKIP vote in 2015 was largely similar to the Brexit Party vote in 2019 in the constituencies they actually stood in.
Labour should’ve done one of two things to mitigate the electoral wipeout:
1) Went all in with the 2nd referendum option as the Lib Dem’s did
2) Accepted Brexit and made the case for Lexit (Left wing Brexit)
In any case, it did neither, tried to sit on the fence and was impaled by the electorate.
Was it?
The UKIP vote in 2015 was largely similar to the Brexit Party vote in 2019 in the constituencies they actually stood in.
Labour should’ve done one of two things to mitigate the electoral wipeout:
1) Went all in with the 2nd referendum option as the Lib Dem’s did
2) Accepted Brexit and made the case for Lexit (Left wing Brexit)
In any case, it did neither, tried to sit on the fence and was impaled by the electorate.
But literally a few pages ago we had others saying the problem is that they're too far left and not focusing enough on the middle class under a Blairite strategy.
So which is it? Are they too entrenched as a middle class party and ignoring the man on the street or are they not doing enough to appeal to the 'Middle England' because they're obsessed with this working class image?
It's impossible to confront the issues when people are telling you you're doing the exact opposite things. And when the things they complain about them not doing are applicable just as much, in not more so, to the party they did vote for.
With all due respect, this kind of thinking is exactly why Labour finds itself out of touch with the electorate.
The party just doesn’t seem capable of confronting its own electoral failures. Generally, its traditional working class base feels like the Labour Party is a party for the cities and middle class graduates. Brexit accelerated the disconnect for a number of reasons as, frankly, the Labour establishment failed to understand why people voted for Brexit in the first place. Increasingly, fringe social issues and a fixation on identity politics has only exasperated the disconnect between the Party and its traditional base.
It’s also worth noting that Labour has literally given up and made no effort to try and discredit the SNP to win back some Scottish seats. Hence, you’ve got the Tories as the second largest Scottish party now.
The Labour Party has shown nothing it’s learned anything from its wipeout in Scotland, and risks the same thing across the Red Wall.
There are serious issues with the Labour Party that it needs to confront or it’ll face electoral oblivion and/or extinction.
There are serious issues with the Labour Party that it needs to confront or it’ll face electoral oblivion and/or extinction.
Think you’re right, which is kinda depressing considering it’s Jo Cox’s old seat and that’ll mean the ratty little terrorist got what he wanted.
But literally a few pages ago we had others saying the problem is that they're too far left and not focusing enough on the middle class under a Blairite strategy.
So which is it? Are they too entrenched as a middle class party and ignoring the man on the street or are they not doing enough to appeal to the 'Middle England' because they're obsessed with this working class image?
It's impossible to confront the issues when people are telling you you're doing the exact opposite things. And when the things they complain about them not doing are applicable just as much, in not more so, to the party they did vote for.
It’s a balancing act and always has been for Labour
Tory Remainers were more willing to vote for Brexit than there were to vote potentially remaining in the EU under a Labour government led by Corbyn. Simultaneously, Labour Leave voters abandoned the party to vote the Brexit Party or Conservative.
Blair would not win an election in the UK if he his career had reborn to today. Back in 1997 through to 2010, Labour could rely on unwavering support from its traditional base whilst appealing to ‘Middle England’. Equally, Corbyn was throughly rejected in 2019 and there were warning signs from the 2017 election too.
The electoral landscape has been changing from 2010 and Labour either has to; rebuild its old electoral coalition or find a new one to win power. Its popularity among students and cities will not win them an election alone.
The Labour moderate and left wings of the party arguing over the direction of the party is like two bald men arguing over a comb. That analogy was taken from Paul Embrey, an advocate for Blue Labour.
Going to be the best episode of The Sheriffs are Coming ever. They rock up at Downing Street but Boris Johnson has them by the nuts because he paid for nothing in the flat so they leave empty handed and an agreement that Boris pays £10 a month for the next 6 years.Anybody got a spare 535 quid to help a friend out?
Bootlickers like it'sabatch will be sharing a go fund me for him on Facebook to get it paid.Going to be the best episode of The Sheriffs are Coming ever. They rock up at Downing Street but Boris Johnson has them by the nuts because he paid for nothing in the flat so they leave empty handed and an agreement that Boris pays £10 a month for the next 6 years.
Or. Boris pleads poverty before getting a mate to pay over the phone by credit card. Hello, Lord Brownlow. It’s Boris here, I’m in a bit of a pickle.
Or. Boris hides in a fridge pretending he’s no where near home and won’t be back for hours.
The thing is the trust in Labour in these communities was economic not cultural originally. You voted Labour because you knew your shop steward or your union rep and would be drenched in workplace politics.
Once that was unhooked, the cultural chasm between the liberal middle class wonks and the conservative (small c) workers was exposed.
So getting their traditional voter coalition together now is virtually impossible. What do you offer the working man who feels like he has everything?
It would really need to be a Liberal not a Labour Party and I don’t know what that looks like in modern Britain or where it gets it’s voter coalition. But the Lib Dem’s seem to do well in the shires and the like that were traditionally Conservative. Maybe there’s a new coalition there?
All depends how long the Brexit honeymoon lasts I guess. The amount of political capital that bought the Tories can’t be underestimated. Thatcher was an equivalent and it took twenty years for them to be cleaned of that stench. So you’re looking at mid 2030s before Labour can rehabilitate themselves.
Grim.
I disagree. Labour has moved progressively right since Kinnock whilst the people who mainly supported them, the working class hasn't. What we have now is a chasm of differences between many at the local and national level of Labour, and the working class. This has already been played out in Scotland where they have lost many heartlands and all the way to Durham, where Labour first started their journey, to the North and the Midlands.
Moving right is not going to cut the mustard with the people you are historically meant to represent. Seems like 9 years is an ideal time to disenfranchise these people and to pick up votes on the right.
Here's another prediction for the next by-election, exactly the same thing that has happened to labour in Hartlepool with the grassroots or people historically linked to Labour, will go into an uproar once again.
Any idea when the Forde Inquiry is going to release their report?
I disagree. Labour has moved progressively right since Kinnock whilst the people who mainly supported them, the working class hasn't. What we have now is a chasm of differences between many at the local and national level of Labour, and the working class. This has already been played out in Scotland where they have lost many heartlands and all the way to Durham, where Labour first started their journey, to the North and the Midlands.
Moving right is not going to cut the mustard with the people you are historically meant to represent. Seems like 9 years is an ideal time to disenfranchise these people and to pick up votes on the right.
Here's another prediction for the next by-election, exactly the same thing that has happened to labour in Hartlepool with the grassroots or people historically linked to Labour, will go into an uproar once again.
Any idea when the Forde Inquiry is going to release their report?
Going to be the best episode of The Sheriffs are Coming ever. They rock up at Downing Street but Boris Johnson has them by the nuts because he paid for nothing in the flat so they leave empty handed and an agreement that Boris pays £10 a month for the next 6 years.
Or. Boris pleads poverty before getting a mate to pay over the phone by credit card. Hello, Lord Brownlow. It’s Boris here, I’m in a bit of a pickle.
Or. Boris hides in a fridge pretending he’s no where near home and won’t be back for hours.
The thing is the trust in Labour in these communities was economic not cultural originally. You voted Labour because you knew your shop steward or your union rep and would be drenched in workplace politics.
Once that was unhooked, the cultural chasm between the liberal middle class wonks and the conservative (small c) workers was exposed.
So getting their traditional voter coalition together now is virtually impossible. What do you offer the working man who feels like he has everything?
It would really need to be a Liberal not a Labour Party and I don’t know what that looks like in modern Britain or where it gets it’s voter coalition. But the Lib Dem’s seem to do well in the shires and the like that were traditionally Conservative. Maybe there’s a new coalition there?
All depends how long the Brexit honeymoon lasts I guess. The amount of political capital that bought the Tories can’t be underestimated. Thatcher was an equivalent and it took twenty years for them to be cleaned of that stench. So you’re looking at mid 2030s before Labour can rehabilitate themselves.
Grim.
Grendel - Isn't one of your big things about how beholden to the Union's Labour are and thus the influence they have over them and their policies?
But you think it's fine to have a PM who is seemingly broke and thus the potential for interference and influence by almost anybody with money, be it businesses, individuals or foreign states, is massive?
The thing is the trust in Labour in these communities was economic not cultural originally. You voted Labour because you knew your shop steward or your union rep and would be drenched in workplace politics.
Once that was unhooked, the cultural chasm between the liberal middle class wonks and the conservative (small c) workers was exposed.
So getting their traditional voter coalition together now is virtually impossible. What do you offer the working man who feels like he has everything?
It would really need to be a Liberal not a Labour Party and I don’t know what that looks like in modern Britain or where it gets it’s voter coalition. But the Lib Dem’s seem to do well in the shires and the like that were traditionally Conservative. Maybe there’s a new coalition there?
All depends how long the Brexit honeymoon lasts I guess. The amount of political capital that bought the Tories can’t be underestimated. Thatcher was an equivalent and it took twenty years for them to be cleaned of that stench. So you’re looking at mid 2030s before Labour can rehabilitate themselves.
Grim.
Going back to Grendel's thing earlier about brand perception, it does seem Labour's brand is now poison. So is the Lib Dem's after the coalition after choosing the wrong hill to die on, which is unfortunate (or Tories coming up lucky yet again) as given the state of the Labour party 10 years ago you'd have said the Lib Dems stood to gain big from an imploding Labour. Whether they can regain that public opinion remains to be seen but given what they've done since it's not looking likely unless the Tories fuck up massively (and even then the media will manage it to not make it seem so bad).
The brand that probably has scope going forward given the increasing prevalence of the environmental situation are the Green's. If they can just quieten down their ultra-militant woke brigade and focus on their raison d'etre I feel this may be where the challenge will come from eventually.
It'll be well before the mid 2030s - the brexit honeymoon isn't built to last and would be starting wain if it wasn't for covid and also voters get bored of parties and people will get bored of the tories.
Greens issues with the mentalists are even more endemic than Labour’s. Their members make their manifesto, it’s absolutely batshit for a serious political party. They get the grumpy leftie and Grendel vote now, but as soon as there’s any eyes on them voters would run a mile.
Hell I’m both a leftie and a tree hugger, it’s my number one priority, and I couldn’t vote Green.
Would give Labour a boost
Given how badly they're doing it might reduce the number of people being parachuted into 'safe seats' (because there won't be many) and so it'll become more local activists involved who will know people in those areas and their issues.
MP selection has negligible impact on election results outside a few extreme outliers. That’s just a lie MPs tell themselves to feel better.
You’re looking at it the wrong way. It isn’t “Brexit made the Tories look good” it was “Labour’s response to Brexit made it look bad”. How Brexit turns out or how people feel about the Tories won’t matter they’ll just remember Labour didn’t listen to people like them. That shit sticks for generations, see Thatcher.
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